If Trump loses his tariff lawsuit, America may have to refund businesses more than $200 billion
The majority of the sweeping tariffs Donald Trump imposed during his second term face one final litmus test that will determine whether he can continue to levy them – and also whether businesses are eligible for massive refunds.
That potentially dramatic turn in the tariff saga comes after a federal appeals court ruled on Friday that Trump unlawfully leaned on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose across-the-board duties on countries.
Trump had used those powers to push import tax rates as high as 50% on India and Brazil – and as high as 145% on China earlier this year.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/03/economy/trump-tariff-refundOpen linkView original on lemmy.world865
Comments156
Not only will the consumers never see a dime of any of the money if it's refunded, the companies aren't going to lower prices because you've already absorbed the price shock.
Right. Everything today is about softening you up. They say, we will kill you—and you panic—then they roll it back to just losing an arm, and you’re happy about it.
Like a frog in boiling water.
No, that's the ratchet effect.
A frog boil is when you slowly raise the temperature so the frogs don't even realize they're being boiled.
An example of frog boiling is having national guard just roam around not doing anything. People are pissed out of principle, but they're not really doing anything for people to riot over. By the time they are, some people will be used to it already and not as pissed as if it was all at once.
Well, yeah...
That's like "dollars to doughnuts" became a thing when a dollar bought a dozen doughnuts. Now you can't buy a single doughnut for a dollar.
But idioms still remain in the original meaning despite them not making sense.
Is that how frogs are cooked? Like a lobsters?
It’s a common myth that frogs will stay in boiling water if the water is heated slowly enough. They can sense heat and will most definitely attempt to escape.
Not if you put a lid on!
No, they’ll still attempt to escape.
The heavy lid of tariffs 😬
The original test had frogs brains removed. A brainless frog will not jump out of water when the temperature is slowly increased. If you increase the temperature quickly though, even a brainless frog will react to temperature change out of raw reflex.
I haven’t even heard that as a common myth. Lobsters, yes. We are lobsters. Frogs? Perhaps very obese frogs
It's a misunderstanding of an old experiment where frogs were lobotomized before being exposed to the slowly rising temperature of the water.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boiling_frog
Fascinating. People are sick though.
Trying to get a frog to stay where you want it is difficult regardless of water temperature.
Frogs don't actually work like that but humans might.
This is called "price anchoring" when used in business. They throw out an outrageously high number to start and then follow it up with something less to make it seem like a good deal when that was really the price they wanted all along.
Alas, a lot people have already lost an arm and a leg and there's still no end in sight.
If they’ve lost an arm and a leg that means they have another arm and a leg to lose! Capitalism! ;)
Ianal, I really hope there is some sort of class action that can be done to force companies to pass that back to consumers.
It should be easy enough to pass through to all the electronic pay methods.
Or force markup items to all be put on massive sale until an equal amount has been sold to make up the sales at markup.
There are no perfect solutions, some people will still make out like bandits.
But jfc, just releasing billions to these companies will only benefit the C-Level and maybe some shareholders, the people already benefiting, not the ones feeling the pain.
A class action just passes the money from one elite class (corporations) to another (class action lawyers). Consumers will get a virtual prepaid debit card for $1.97 in 5 years that can’t be spent anywhere because it can’t be used online and it costs $5 to have them mail you a physical card
Should get out guillotines
100% this. Most I've ever seen out of a class action is somehwere between $5-$300. That's after you produce a mountain of receipts and paperwork. Only lawyers get rich.
You could always hire a lawyer of your own and sue the company directly. That's what someone did to have it become a class action lawsuit. The person who brought the original suit gets a big payout, and the people who did not generally get a much smaller piece of the pie.
Yeah I feel like this was already expected or part of some master plan. The companies didn’t lose because they passed it on to the consumer and then they’re gonna get money on top of it.
OMG stop. We've elected conspiracy theorists already and things are going to shit. We need to stop conspiratorial thinking.
Is it really conspiratorial when the Commerce Secretary's kids are literally selling financial products that pretty much assume the tariffs will be tossed in court? Sure as fuck seems to me like they planned this based on their already existing actions.
https://www.wired.com/story/cantor-fitzgerald-trump-tariff-refunds/
Yes, yes it is. Accusations raised about grand conspiracy between companies and government with zero evidence provided other than "I feel like" is a conspiracy theory.
https://www.wired.com/story/cantor-fitzgerald-trump-tariff-refunds/
So - relevant evidence not just any evidence of anything. Jesus Christ. Evidence of "Crime A" can't be used to support "Crime B".
This is what you said. I provided a well sourced article that literally confirms this was expected/planned and you're claiming that's not relevant? Yeah, I'm good with not talking to you anymore.
It also gives trump an out from "tarrif checks" he was talking about.
Likely the reason they started talking about those, is anticipation that they may be overturned. Now his supporters will be mad the "deep state" took "their checks" that they were never gonna get.
See: the gas price jump in 2008-ish
The businesses will raise a lawsuit that the money is theirs and you will lose again.
And the prices won't go back down.
And half the country will blame immigrants and trans people
This exactly.
Congress: "Sorry, best we can do is another tax break for the rich."
Fuck corpos
Wouldn't bring back the small businesses that have already been killed anyway. My favorite coffee shop just closed, and my independent artisan friends are barely selling anything any more.
All that money will go to the businesses, you’ll get a coupon for $1 off and a free credit check.
Wouldn't surprise if this is part of the scam. Put on tarrifs, hike prices. Let the customer pay and then give companies a rebate with tax money. So the average citizen is charged twice. And of course those price hikes will only go partially down. So the consumer keeps getting screwed.
Soon "See, this is yet another example of why we can't trust the government to do anything right and why we should defund and shutter all of our public institutions." - moderate pundit on well respected mainstream news channel
The average citizen is charged more than twice when you consider that they're paying a much higher tax rate than the ultra-wealthy.
It is. Trump has his own stablecoin. That means he needs to hold massive $ reserves. So high rates due to lots of government debt are good for Trump.
You think the price hikes are going down? Lol
Hmm, sounds like politics made for billionaires, hmmm.
And they'll continue to raise prices. It will become the new "supply chain issues".
Was it not the end consumer who paid those tariffs?? Frankly, I'd rather it be given back to the business at least, but let's not pretend that they didn't extract it from their customers. End it so that other companies can't as easily gouge based on the idea of tariffs.
Yes, the business just collected it. However, it would also depend on whether they upped their prices to do so.
(they did)
Many (most?) did but not always like for like. This will have the double effect of making American manufacturing less attractive as your competitive edge due to tariffs could evaporate. It also means importers will pass it on straight away as it's clear to consumers that it's a government tax. Moreso as we go on. Previously, the uninformed thought the tariffs were not paid by consumers.
It is whomever imported the item that pays. If you order directly from a tariffed country you pay. If American_Business_01 imports stuff they pay, they then either eat the tariff, raise their price to retailers and distribution (this is what is happening in the non-video game industry). Some businesses are raising MSRP and spreading the tariff between themselves, distribution, retailers, and consumers. Some companies are trying to dump it all on retailers by not raising msrp.
So the idiot who managed to ruin every business he ever owned created an absolute clusterfuck running the US, who could've known?
Hey now, he only serially ruined businesses in order to enrich himself. Dodging taxes and shit like that makes him a good businessman, actually. Just ask my old boss. He'll tell you all about trump's genius business acumen in excruciating detail all day long. Yes, he does own his own business, no it's not doing well but he's got a corvette, so he's pretty sure he's right.
Points for consistency? 🤷♂️
How far does this refund go? My distributor paid the tarrifs and then passed that cost onto me, which I passed onto my customers.
Will my customers, distributors, or myself be refunded? I assume just my distributor since they directly paid the tarrif. And I doubt prices will come down when tarrifs end, so everything is permanently more expensive for no fucking reason, and the top middle man just boosted his profit margin through the roof.
So that would mean that the Trump tariffs were sending American money overseas for no reason. I doubt it'll actually happen, but holy shit is Trump an incompetent idiot.
No, the US company recieving the import pays the tarrif to the US government.
But yes, Trump is an idiot.
Oh, duh. I'm embarrassed I got it confused. I was thinking that the cost is passed on to the importer, but it's actually paid by the importer.
Yeah they aren't telling companies you have to pay to send your product here, because there would be no way to collect that, as they aren't governed by us. (Trolls standing on a bridge comes to mind). Instead every item imported into the country is bought by someone, that someone has to have an itemized list of what they purchased to go through customs and what not to make sure they aren't crates full of dynamite, or plant seeds that are unauthorized. That inventory and costs are then taxed by the government or held by customs I believe.
e.g. If Paul sets a tariff on Amazon orders at his house, his wife orders a package off Amazon. USPS or whomever delivers the package, Paul's security guard, likely Paul himself gets the inventory of the packages that arrive, see it is from Amazon and charges his wife 50% of that cost to take it into the house. Amazon has no part in that process. Buttt what it may do is make Puals wife less likely to order from Amazon, IF it is cheaper to get the product from someone else then. If the product was $50 on Amazon, and $100 at the store, she would still buy it off Amazon as she would still only pay $75 after the tax, instead of $100.
Paul just made $25 in taxes that he can invest into the house. His wife spent $25 more. Amazon made the same, but may lose future business.
Right. I was thinking of the suspension of the de minimis exemption. Because that's an $80 fee that the exporter does have to pay, if I understand it correctly.
Those are paid by the importer as far as I understand. The di minimus exemption that was passed was essentially supposed to make it so low cost items bought from other countries were exempt from tariffs/taxes. This meant that if you ordered something from Brazil, China, wherever and it was under a certain amount (think it was $800) it would just go through without being hit by the tax. Thus making it cheaper for the end buyer. Trump made an executive order to stop that because that would exempt a lot of people from getting hit by the taxes. Which was put in place with both parties supporting it... So it's solely a new maga tariff thing in my opinion. Buy a $3 million server rack from elsewhere, pay a fee, buy a new shirt, would be exempt. But Trump didn't want that, so he claimed it would reduce security and allow drugs into the country or some shit.
Right. There was an Australian redditor who made his living selling handmade wallets, but he had to shut it down because the price just went up $80 per wallet. Fucking idiotic.
Yes, yes he is and that was abundantly clear from his first term. But at least the female POC didn't get in, right? Dodged a bullet there.
/s of course
What are you distributing?
I'm a locksmith, I mostly program car keys for customers. Basically every car key is produced overseas.
Is the Syracuse factory not producing anymore?
I'm not sure what you're talking about. But Honda, Toyota, Mazda, Kia, Hyundai, Nissan, Mitsubishi, Subaru, Volvo, Volkswagon, and Mercedes keys are definitely made overseas.
And considering the price increases I'm seeing on Fiat (Jeep, Dodge,, Chrystler) and Ford keys, I assume they are too. GM prices have risen the least, but they too are more expensive, probably because raw materials are being tarrifed.
Cool!
Am I getting a refund on the higher prices I'm paying because of tariffs?
The tariffs will go away, but the companies have realised that you're okay with paying $10 for something that used to cost $8 anyway so you'll be paying $10 from now on
The only solution is to confiscate all wealth over $100 million, and use it to establish Health Care 4 All, free college/trade, UBI, minimum living wage, public services, etc.
The world would be a better place.
I'll just remind everyone that the people making those ghoulish decisions have home addresses. Just normal homes in normal neighborhoods, most often without any extra security.
Be a shame if they suddenly realized there were consequences for social murder.
They've been shrinkflating the shit out of everything so much.
I've recently noticed a stick of deodorant from Costco seems to be the same (already shrunken over the years) plastic shell with less actual deodorant in it.
It's all about seeing how little we're willing to accept, and then conditioning us to accept even less.
Until they decide to change it again in 3-6 months.
lol
Nah you get the bill citizen. Don't worry, glorious leader will have another illegal act for you to pay the fine for soon too
yeah its like fuck that. do like the covid checks.
Eehhh, consumers paid this, not the businesses. This way businesses would essentially get a bonus
That's the point of Republican business support. Remember COVID, where businesses got money to "survive"?
Well, consumers paid first and foremost, but businesses lost revenue because consumers kinda stop buying shit when it doubles in price - other than essentials, of course. It's also easier to pay a bunch of businesses than to pay 300 million Americans. Oh wait, they've already done the latter, so how about do that again and people can spend the money to buy more shit from said businesses and everyone wins?
People haven't caught on to the grift yet. One of the people in the committee who runs the tariff decisions literally runs a financial/law institution that since the tariffs started, has been contracting with companies to pay a portions (10, 20, 40%) of the tariffs to "ease the load on the companies" but they retain the rights, in the case of what is going on i.e. tariffs being recalled and paid back, to take 100% of the tariff payback.
So a government official is steering the tariff policy to essentially steal money from companies with some alight risk of the tariffs not getting overturned. Crazy grift.
If you have a source for that could you post it?
Sure
https://www.wired.com/story/cantor-fitzgerald-trump-tariff-refunds/
https://thedeepdive.ca/howard-lutnicks-sons-running-his-old-firm-are-betting-against-trump-tariffs/
Spoiler alert: even if Donny loses this battle he won’t pay anyone anything he never has and never will admit to losing or owning anything to anyone.
It's not Donny's money. What will happen is that importers will pass the tariffs onto consumers, as they pretty much have to, then the tariffs will be overturned and the money given back to importers, thus robbing regular people once again and transferring wealth to the capitalists.
I doubt the importers will be refunded. Obviously if they were, 90%+ will not refund their customers because why would they? I can imagine class action lawsuits down the road, but honestly I predict the supreme court will overturn any lower court rulings and let him tariff away, saying it's the congress's job to reign him in since "it's their prerogative" or some such, in a 6-3 ruling. If they wanted to stop the tariffs, the majority will argue, they could simply cancel them.
I obviously grasp the injustice, but I can't imagine what the basis of a class action would be. If you agree to buy a product for $5 and they supply said product, the courts aren't going to care if their cost for it was $4 or $2. There is no constitutional right to suppliers with low profit margins.
If there was a tariff fee in the invoice, there would be standing.
That's right. He won't pay us back because he has already launder the money into his own pocket
Oh so we get to pay twice then. Great.
how would refund like this even work? Many businesses closed shop entirely due to these tarrifs, could they sue the government too? This would be crazy and this massive overhead risk could block the entire thing.
Yuuuuuup! One of the key parts of planning policies is evaluating its strength in court. SCOTUS gave the executive branch a free pass to just try anything with zero consequences. Why bother asking if something is legal when it literally doesn't matter if it isn't.
No refunds, sorry.
Most likely the only ones getting refunds are those joined to the law suit that got the tariffs removed. Everyone else is SOL.
None of us will see any money refunded. Remember that this is all planned out to make products more expensive for americans, so we get used to the higher prices. Then the companies with hundreds of millions in profit can make more profit when costs for them go down, they keep our prices the same and also SHRINK the size of the product.
Corporations are stealing from Americans every day and politicians are all in on the scam, so no one will do anything about it.
"Look, we lowered prices!" -- ignoring that the new "lower" prices are still higher than the pre-tariff prices.
Surely the price hikes will reverse at that point and won't just remain higher indefinitely causing another price/price inflationary spiral.
The companies importing products sold their debt to massive debt collecting firms who will receive the rebate so no.
Never mind the consumers eh? WE are the ones most directly affected. Businesses lost nothing
plenty of businesses literally closed FYI
To avoid paying tarrifs
Well they just couldn't compete and make profit. This would be akin to direct damages
Nobody else was given that option. WE all had/have to swallow it or starve. Shutting down and waiting on them to go away is not qualification for repayment since you didn't pay. You voluntarily gave your business up. That deserves no reward
Nah not a lawyer but there's precedent where illegal government policy can be held liable for business closing. The contract between a business and government vs citizen and government is very different and you conflate both for whatever reason.
$200 billion / 330 million Americans = $606 each. More or less.
And that's just the illegal tariffs.
When do Trump and the magats drink the poison koolaid? I’m getting impatient
I don't think that happens until command gets forced into the bunker and the army is defeated.
75-85 million people died before that happened
Hrm, 77 million people voted for him...
and this time we have nukes from the start
Hoping for Trumplethinskin to kick the bucket soon. It'll be a doozy. I can barely contain myself watching the news of him looking decrepit.
The Businesses didn't pay the tariffs, We did.
How much of that will be pocketed by his cronies because the rules for payout were vague enough for their random LLC.
Pretty sure refunded tariffs will be based on transactions and... Yeah you are right nevermind.
And the prices? Oh nothing will fundamentally change 😉
No worries , you have a supreme court good at ruling by vibe.
Yeah F that.
American consumers need to get the refund, not the corporations.
That was the plan all along
Around $6000 to my small business. I’m sure the Supreme Court will side with Trump though.
Increasing the uncertainty is not necessarily beneficial either. Businesses won't want to keep changing their pricing. People don't want to plan their purchases around whether tariffs are likely to change up or down in the future. Their instinct will be to wait.
The tariffs were illegal in how they were implemented but Congress could easily do it and would follow his instructions as they have done before.
It's a shit show, as expected.
Uh congress couldn’t easily implement tariffs though. How would they muster 60 votes in the senate to break the filibuster?
You have more faith in the democrats than I do. They won't filibuster tariffs with a shutdown looming that is clearly trumps causing, but they don't want the blame.
We're never fucking financially recovering from this administration
They always claim they are the party of financial responsibility. Lets see how responsible they'll handle it.
I assume they will do like with their self-proclaimed "law and order" image, with which they put a felon in the White House, and where the AG is busy obstructing justice by wiping Republicans from a list of pedophiles instead of actually fighting crime.
Trump asks Supreme Court to quickly take up tariffs case and reverse ruling finding them illegal
AKA: Trump's standard delaying tactic whenever he gets ruled against.
Appeal everything no matter how ridiculous, just to waste time and allow him to keep doing whatever shitty thing for a few more months/years until all appeal venues are exhausted.
He’s already spent it on bling from Kohl’s.
Art of the deal?
Only that the artist is none.
Those businesses will never see a goddamn cent
Seeing that our Judicial branch is limping along, and at least attempting to curtail this march toward totalitarianism, gives me hope.
I'll be pleasantly surprised if this happens.
He regularly ignores court orders with zero consequences. He has empirically proven that the courts can say whatever they want but he doesn’t have to listen.
Thanks CNN. Now the Supreme Court justices know their asking price
Turns out either I can't read or can't math.
Funny how the refund works out to a total of about 60 cents per American, when I know I've paid WAY more than that in tariff-related bullshit.60 cents? You may have confused "billion" for "million" somewhere, unless I'm misunderstanding you, in which case we'd be talking closer to $600
Whoops, you're right! Thanks :)
Or else what?
It shouldn’t go back to businesses, it should be a tax credit (with documentation.)
Cool. Can other countries sue for the damage it caused to their industries as well?
Don't worry, the supremes will make it all go away.
And then the businesses will pass that refund onto the consumer, right?... Right?
The money will go back to American businesses, which means American consumers. That means that's more proof that Americans are paying for the tariffs.
Not a single cent will go to American consumers. If the American companies win this lawsuit (and don't get me wrong, they should), they will keep the money and will not lower their prices even after the tariffs are removed.
Oh for sure, I'm just saying that the money going back to American businesses proves that this isn't hurting foreign companies and we're paying for the tariffs.
Oh yes, of course.
Hopefully this means i might be able to get an Xpeng. Tired of waiting for our manufacturers to catch up.
Can you imagine having to refund ~6 months of US Imports? The paperwork alone would take years. Each entry would have to be re-verified with customs. Not to mention the staffing increase for CBP to process the refunds. I don't see SCOTUS not enforcing this.
Introduction to CAPE, called it