How is the Stock Market keeping it's value after *points to everything*?
I have no idea how while Trump is a) ripping out the underpinnings of constitutional law which, in turn, is all that holds up all other laws (including transactional) in the US AND b) ripping apart the post war Western defense alliance leaving Europe and Australia completely exposed and vulnerable AND c) going to impose global reciprocal tariffs, which are going to kill trade and plunge the country and the world into the greatest economic depression (coincidentally) since the 1930's, how the market isn't down 75% - 90% by this point. Hopes & Dreams? Hallucinogens? Heroin?
What power on earth is allowing Hedge Funds, Banks and Small Investors the justification to keep betting on an underlying business system which is literally being pulled apart at the seams with no real hope of being functional shortly. How is this happening. It's like I'm taking crazy pills every day. The market should look at what Trump's already done (much less what he still promises to do) and say, whoop that's us, we're audi, this is insane, we can't trade our value as a corporation any longer, we don't know where supplies, labor, administration, distribution, sales, or any law governing any of it stands, we have to pull all our monies out, and put them someplace safe like our pockets.
What is happening to keep the market propped up, when literally everything, everywhere that it needs for stability in projected earnings is being hollowed out beneath it?
edit 2/20 : lol edit 2/21: lol edit 3/3: lol
It's almost like financial value is artificially assigned or something, and not, like, intrinsic.
To expand: the economy runs on many fuels. Progress, yes. But also blood.
The progress is also made of blood
Have we checked inside the billionaires to see what they are made of ?
I hear they're full of candy, like a fat bloated piñata.
Then we should string them up in a tree and beat them with sticks,
... To get the candy.
Blood from crushed orphans is up 300% this year! 📈
yes financial value isn't intrinsic, it's created, but it's created by group acclimation, a thing is worth what a) someone of a group of someones says it's worth AND by b) a second group who is willing to pay what the first group has valued that thing at, for that thing. but it's an understanding, which is based in observable, recordable, and prooveable metrics BASED equally on the intangible of trust in the underlying business system upon which it is offered. That second bit can't exist in the current environment, when the Constitution and all law based on it, are becoming meaningless.
You kind of get it with your own answer but are refusing to see it.
Why hasn't the market dropped yet with all the fuckery going on in DC? Because the impact of said fuckery has not occurred yet. Let this be a chance for some awareness of your own personal information bubble and possible over doom scrolling.
This is not saying this administration isn't going to cause some terrible shit. It just hasn't stuck yet. Nothing the administration has done has prevented Microsoft or Google or Netflix from collecting their subscription fees. The closest thing so far has been tariffs that came and went.
For the record, they were only delayed for 30 days, not cancelled.
Also, Trump just announced some more today, so that's fun.
You're right that the actual brunt of the effects haven't hit yet, though.
This is s completely incorrect take on the stock market.
Rule #1 of the stock market is that none understands how it responds to inputs.
Rule #2 is that it attempts to factor in future expectations, so if you wait for something to happen, the impact is already accounted for in the price if the stock.
Market frenzy, people piling on when FOMO takes over, etc all make it impossible to have any level of certainty. So it's a valid question to ask why all of the current fuckery has not translated into market chaos.
My reply addresses this with your 2nd point. What I'm trying to say is that maybe the market did factor in the fuckery and has so far believed it to be a nothing burger.
Everyone could be wrong, of course, but so far that is what the markets indicates. So naturally the follow up questions should be, are the markets wrong? Or am I (OP) consuming too much media from my bubble which is overexaggerating the doom and gloom?
The people with the money are the ones running shit. Everything works until they say it doesn't. Or until we all do.
Much stock value is artificial, but these companies still have infrastructure, brands and products.
And these things are truly worth a fraction of their assigned value - and no value at all to those who aren't interested in them. The plumbing inside Microsoft is worthless to me except to maybe make a bong, but it's worth billions to the company that requires it.
And you assume this has intrinsic value? Brands and products?
I assume they’re making a point about hard assets versus pure speculation, like comparing real estate to crypto coins.
If you woke up tomorrow and had full rights to the name Coca Cola™, would that not be of extreme value to you? Of course it doesn't have the intrinsic value of a gold brick, but it's still valuable and stock fluctuations won't change that fact.
Because it's now completely disconnected from the reality of the actual economy. It has been for a very long time. It has to do with how much money is funneled into the wealthiest hands.
Yes, human history is a very long time.
Our new defacto president is the avatar of bubble economics.
Even the other oligarchs, thry made something at dramatic scale to justify their wealth. Microsoft did sell a lot of software. Facebook got 176 billion people on board to blast adverts at. They're trillion dollar firms that do correspondingly large run rates.
Tesla is still a minor player in its space, and SpaceX is inherently a narrow business. Even PayPal, where the horrors all came from, isn't a major value add, it's a thin mask atop the clunkiness of American payment rails that should have been replaced by something like FedNow by 2003.
But he's taken these tiny fundamentals and convinced Wall Street to puff more air into them than a fresh bag of Lay's.
That 176 billion people figure may be a BIT off….
I keep asking myself this same question as I stare at my retirement savings in what seems like trump's crosshairs. I only have a few possible answers, and none of them are enough to explain the continued high valuations.
The only things i know are: "the market is irrational" and "time in the market beats timing the market". How long before the crash occurs? How much gains are lost if I pull it out too early? Days? Years? Even if I were to pull everything out now, when would I know its safe to put it back in? Would I accurately be able to determine the bottom of the market and magically put it all back in to reap the spoils? If the damage trump does to our country destroys the value of the dollar, then even having pulled everything to cash would mean it would be in (at that time) worthless US Dollars.
I'm simply not that smart to execute that successfully and I don't pretend to be.
The "full faith and credit of the united states government" as expressed and guaranteed in American dollars, is probably pretty safe for a while at least, as most of the world's nations economies still base their own currency on the us dollar, but that's going to unravel at some point sooner than later i imagine
February 10, 2025 quotes from the article:
Trump says some Treasury payments might 'not count'
"We're even looking at Treasuries," Trump said. "There could be a problem - you've been reading about that, with Treasuries and that could be an interesting problem."
source
If trump decides to not pay on US Treasury Bills even ONE TIME, that's the whole ball game. The indestructible, ever-present, no-safer-investment-literally-anywhere-in-the-world is gone forever. The USA is able to be the nation it is because we are allowed to borrow money from the rest of the entire world and unbelievably low interest rates. If we're forced to pay higher rates on our T-bills because we aren't trustworthy anymore we will immediately drown in our $36.22 trillion national debt.
Maybe part of the plan is to own the debt owed by the US, and then just break assets off as “compensation”. It’s like a thin veneer of capitalism and deregulation being spread over what happened to the assets of the USSR when it fell in the early 90s.
And yes, that’s a pointed parallel: I do sincerely believe we’re looking at the beginning of the real fall of America as a contiguous country and meaningful world power. I say that as an American.
Pretty sure that’s the goal tbh. It’s like how these techbros crash a business and walk off with all the assets. They’re trying on countries now.
Other countries starting to set up trade relationships not based on the dollar - now that’s a threat to the stilts propping up the American economy, for sure. Tariffs as well though I think many don’t believe they are truly going to materialize as threatened. When you say “gestures at everything,” what actually are the main things that you think should be sinking the economy as a whole? DOGE bullshit, federal agency heads resigning, DEI programs being cancelled, betraying Gaza and Ukraine… it’s all bad but most of it does not seem an immediate existential economic threat. What am I missing?
Hmm I dunno, but maybe it is time to diversify. Into euros, yens, and probably yuans. How do you think?
first off, your trading account is in some financial institution that might itself shatter. without a federal rescue boat to save the little people. second, if the us economy actually collapses 80+%, nowhere else is safe. the european union and japan couldnt fend for itself without the current power balance holding firm. china is in a terrible state itself already. no easy answers.
Yeah, trading account needs some caution, indeed. If nowhere else is safe.. I guess the answer is the real gold? That's quite difficult. Do you think 80% collapse would come? That's gotta be quite wild, I was more thinking of general market crash.
if you knew the correct timing/scale/scope you could be crazy rich from it all. nobody knows, even those causing it. personally ive been out of the stock market for 5 years expecting a crash and it hasnt happened yet.
Gold will not hold value if the market crashes like that. Food, water, and land will be what holds value.
This is the pump before the dump. Institutional investors are slowly exiting and retail investors are making up most of the volume.
We were due for a correction or crash but Biden and the Fed held it off long enough for the election. There is a lot of money sitting on the sidelines waiting to grab assets, housing etc on the cheap.
Grifters like Trump can’t wait to get it started. In every crisis there is opportunity what Trump does with this crisis will likely reshape our government.
Good thing Elon is trying to kill social security and other assistance programs ahead of the fall.
He really wants to see people suffer.
Because it's basd on bullshit metrics that mean nothing?
When you're a hammer, everything is a nail. That's all they know how to do, and they still have enough capital to keep doing it.
There are insane mistakes being made multiple times a day now. At some point, the high stakes game of Don't Break the Ice will come to a sudden end. Putting the cubes back in the game board would require an expenditure of capital. Capitalists spend money to buy more money. The only time they spend money to avoid losing money is when they've lost money for a very specific reason multiple times, and maybe not even then.
The visual helped.
There is a economic name for it called a Minsky moment. While I think most of economics is a joke this is one of the only valuable things from the field of economics.
Trump: "I'll run the USA like a company!"
How business people run companies: Fire all the competent people and replace with cheaper new hires. Report huge short term profits due to reduced payroll. Stock goes up. CEO ditches company and sells off stock before all the new hires completely wreak the company and tank the stock price.
Why wouldn't the stock market be up at this point?
Why should anything be crashing at this point? Everyone is still working, right? Value is still being extracted from workers, right? People are still buying things, aren't they?
The stock market will only start crashing once the effects actually reach people's spending/working behavior, which it didn't yet.
that's right people lost their homes, farms, businesses, and jumped off skycrappers in 29, before the market crashed, i must have forgotten
Dingus, they are saying it hasnt reached the tipping point yet. There will be a crash but the system has a lot of inertia that needs to grind to a slow screaching halt first before we start seeing the really big effects.
This is the correct answer.
All of that makes sense only if you fundamentally misunderstand the concept of "underpinnings". The German stock market was valueless to anyone, and it's stocks not worth the paper they were printed on when the Nazis took over, only German companies being offered on American stock exchanges kept and grew, and realized their value during and after the war. You sounded smart there for a minute, until I thought about what you wrote. It's like your whistling in a hurricane, a south park cop saying nothing to see here nothing to see here.
Crime. It was crime before, but it's crime now too.
The people who were supposed to be in charge of preventing the crime didn't do it before because they were part and party to it, they certainly won't enforce the laws now.
That depression that's coming is only for the working class. The rich will keep making money using us indentured workers as slaves to make more money.
Because the stock market isn't a measure of how well a country is operating. On the contrary, deregulation allows companies to boost profit via harmful means. Rich people got it good under Trump/Republicans and therefore the stock market thrives until disaster strikes and it all comes crashing down.
"consumer confidence" = feelings = not-reality
... checks out.
Irrational exuberance anyone?
As others have said, the stock market has little to do with reality. It's focused on money and business reports. As long as companies are showing profits, the stock market literally doesn't care.
Something only hits it when businesses hit it. Look at today's market. Walmart posted bad futures and the whole market recoiled (only a bit but still).
There's also just the denial phase. Lots of people, at lots of levels, are dependent on the stock market for their own finances. Literally everyone with a 401k has an interest in the market doing well. Saying "welp, we're fucked" is just not something that anyone wants to put towards wall street. It's why we have market "crashes", because people hold out until the water covers the bow of the sinking shop then they freak out and bail out at the last second.
As evidenced in The Big Short when it was very clear to banks and regulators that the whole mortgage shell game was falling apart and they all refused to act on it.
See, now I have had a few things pegged as being in the denial phase for a while. I'm in Australia, so the housing market I have had pegged to collapse, also I figured we would be heading into a recession coming on 3 years ago and changed businesses to "weather the upcoming recession"
Now while things have cooled off since then, and I still think both elements are overcooked, I obviously moved way to soon.
So my question is, how do you time the denial phase? The housing market issue has been going on for about 30 years from what I can tell (though it got more reasonable for half a minute a bit over a decade ago and then went stupid again).
In my lifetime, and I'm 40 now, I haven't seen a proper major correction where bad decisions and greed was punished. I should have been "taking stupid risks" the entire time and I would have been just fine.
I don't have an answer to any of your questions and I don't think many others will either. It seems like one of those things that you look back at with the clarity of hindsight in order to map things out.
I mean that's part of the thing right? "Who dares wins" is a great mantra until you lose. Nobody can predict the future so a lot of times the greed carries out until it's literally irreversible. That's why it's so important to have people on the other end defending from the greed, from the people that will hoard and take until they die on their pile of gold.
At least for the US there is always a feeling of doom and worry and "it's going to pop" but until it actually does, the greed will continue to take. That's part of the system for better or worse. It can't be stopped, but defending the people from the repercussions of that greed is what we have to do.
There's always someone that will try to bring too much on the lifeboat. Rules are needed to stop them from sinking the whole ship.
You expect people to take their money from stocks and put into what exactly?
Putting it in "someplace safe like our pockets" is neither safe, nor something people can do in large numbers. They can put it in bank accounts in large numbers, how safer than stocks do you think those are?
not at all, the fdic can't be trusted any longer, and that's only up to
100k250k when it was under trustworthy management, and people had the expectation of being made whole by the federal government if their bank failed. yeah, no, there are no safe answers here. this ghost valuation of the market propped up on yesterdays laws of american commerce though, whoof. someday soon somebody somewhere is going to say "the emporer has no clothes" and then it all comes down.FDIC coverage was updated to $250K.
Doesn't change the current political risks to the program though, i.e. whether or not it will actually pay out to a crashed bank's account holders.
cheers, thanks for the correction
The state will always bail out the rich (ie themselves) regardless of nominal limits.
I'm not a financial advisor, so nobody copy this, but we removed all our money from the US over the last few years in preparation. We dont have stocks any more, and our last bit of US money is due to be transferred when our tax return is paid out. I'm cautiously optimistic things will hold until then 🤞
We've put most of our money short term into New Zealand banks, specifically term deposits at a few locations, as the financial system here is well insulated at least compared to most countries. Long term we will vary our investment more but we don't have many options until we are permanent residents (another couple years). It's a moderate low risk growth, and we are okay with the downsides of it being inaccessible since we have several staggered.
Here term deposits are likely to be frozen short term in the event of a crash by the Open Banking Resolution system, but our everyday funds will be more accessible. Now for a huge market crash, most bets are off, but being in this little island nation, I feel a lot more secure in the fact that society will pull together rather than eat each other. That's the true benefit of being here: the culture.
Fascist coups succeed when the rich have bought into the coup.
Why would the rich seizing full control of the state make the stock market go down?
because the middle class gets gutted.
If you believe all kinds of capitalist ideology and pseudo-science, then it might seem strange.
But in reality fascism is great for capital. Also the fed prints hella money to prop it all up.
I pulled my money out when he took office. There WILL be a crash and recession, and it will be intentional. There will be all kinds of irrational exuberence to get everyone all in, and then crash it to mop up the spoils and expand the wealth gap.
Did you have a 401k or an IRA? Where did you put it to not get taxed on it?
Why would you give a fuck about taxes? I just dont want it all lost or stolen
I have an ABLE account, for people on SSI. It is untaxed, though there is a small fee for just the money to be managed. It is handy, since there is a $2,000 limit on the wealth beneficiaries can have - the ABLE account allows for up to $100,000 to be in there before most benefits are lost. It also invests the money into a stock/bonds/FDIC portfolio of your choosing. If you have enough wealth, you can just deposit money in there until you reach $500,000ish cap for what you can add.
It is really helpful for the poor, since we don't have many methods for storing wealth that doesn't involve a mattress. Also, ABLE accounts should be state owned - theoretically insulating them from Musk's grubby paws. Unfortunately, my state's ABLE program doesn't permit Euros, so I suspect no ABLE to be safe from hyperinflation.
Because this is the Second Business Plot, and this time it worked.
Thats a good comparison to the end result, but he skipped the "get support of the military" step.
He just freed a bunch of criminal paramilitaries, but when push comes to shove, I think they'll be quickly eliminated by the actual military.
Huh, til
Investors understand that he's going to do everything he can to transfer wealth to the top. That makes it safe to invest more because more will be coming in. That's my casual guestimate.
When the Berlin Wall fell, the predictions made at the time were for several decades of low intensity conflict ('war on terror') followed by another major world war. This is the expected state of the world, not some surprise outcome from out of nowhere that the capitalists haven't planned for.
Australia is still being shielded from Chinese expansionism by NATO's anti-access and area-denial strategy emplaced along the islands off China's coast.
If the war in Europe expands and heats up, it will be European cities that get destroyed and EU citizens who will have to choose to fight for their autonomy or preemptively surrender to subjugation by the Tsar. USA pulling back from supporting Ukraine forces the EU to pick a path and walk it. Either they build an army capable of self-defense, or they'll be overrun. The fighting in Ukraine prevents Russia from building up forces, buying the EU time to arm themselves, if that's what they decide they want to do. If they move fast, there's a chance they can win the war before it really begins.
Expect to see nuclear proliferation. Modern wars have shown that non-nuclear armed states are a toothless prey species that only exist so long as their nuclear armed neighbors permit it. During the reconstruction era following WWII, USA's relative advantage in infrastructure and technology allowed them to grant credible security guarantees. Now that the rest of the world has caught up, USA's defense promises have lost credibility (for example, see Ukraine).
The ocean is full of submarines, and the coastlines bristle with long range, precision missiles. World trade is expected to be among the first casualties of the next world war. Countries that are not self-sufficient will be unable to replenish their losses. Economic protectionism is a matter of national security.
Dismantling USA's Federal government serves the interests of organized crime, ie the capitalists that own Wall Street. They're getting squeezed by de-globalization but also expect to be able to expand into new criminal enterprise enabled by deregulation and the dismantling of the Federal government's investigative capabilities. Without having someplace better to invest capital, might as well let it ride despite the chaos. With a world war, and possibly a nuclear exchange, just over the horizon, there really isn't any safe place to put one's money, except perhaps housing and real estate in those parts of the world expected to survive. Canada. Siberia. Greenland.
If we do nothing to reduce atmospheric CO2, global heating will eventually cap out at 5 degrees C and won't go higher due to diminishing returns. The far north will need to invest in agricultural infrastructure, but once that gets built out in the warmer world, there will be more arable land than there is today. Its going to be boom times for real estate developers.
The same way Bitcoin keeps value; most of the supply never changes hand. In Bitcoin because the wallets are no longer accessible, in stock because the owners live comfortably on dividends alone.
I agree that bitcoin and stocks are both just wacky pyramid schemes but...
What wallets?
About
60-70%20-30% (edited, some googling returned a lot lower numbers than I remembered) of Bitcoin is estimated to be out of rotation. They reside in wallets that haven't been accessed in at least 10 years.MostAbout one million of these belong to the elusive Satoshi Nakamoto, the main developer of Bitcoin. He disappeared some 15 years ago, and nobody knows their real name, or even if it's one person or more.What you're experiencing isn't hyperinflation. Hyperinflation is more like when a loaf of bread is $1 today, $2 a month after and $10-100 by the end of the year. Grown up in country during hyperinflation.
i still kind of regret not getting one of those hundred trillion dollar bills for 40 cents
Lol no, for hyper INFLATION, your prices need to change dramatically by the minute
A little while ago the entire market went red. If it's doing well now then that's only comparative to everything going on then.
That said, gutting regulations certainly will boost profits short term, if you care more about that than human life and happiness.
S&P500 closed at an all-time high yesterday. It's not just up relative to a downturn.
US 30, DOW Jones, and NASDAQ all peaked a little higher in November-December last year. Crude Oil futures haven't recovered from their 2022 high. USD to Euro is down since 2018 high and USD to GBP is down since 2016.
But yes if you look at charts going back over a decade there is a clear unbreaking "line goes up" trend. In fact, you could argue the charts have an almost asymptotic trend you see right before bubbles pop, possibly due to misevaluating AI.
What the fuck are you even talking about?
Trump is generating an enormous level of security risk globally, which encourages investment money flow to the country with the biggest military. Ironically, that happens to be the US.
The US also has the best natural barriers to invasion in the world. The only access points are through the Arctic (good luck with that), or by traveling over a damn ocean to assault beaches on North American soil. When not only America has the largest navy in the world, but several of the runner ups are close allies, how do you plan on even getting to the US with your forces? You don't.
As you say, the US is well positioned in this changing world. It's one of the few countries almost guaranteed to continue to do well.
The stock market will always be up and going up if people keep putting more money in it.
Stocks represent all assets that can be sold and traded publicly. Although US infrastructure is crumbling, all the shit is still there.
Times are hard but we still have obscene material wealth (for now, here is hoping climate change doesn’t reduce that too much). Ironically, stocks should have gone down in the pandemic cause of the productive capacity dropping but it didn’t cause a lot of cash was printed.
For stock prices to tumble down and crash, people need to take their money out of it. That’s only going to happen if there is another economy that people prefer to put their money in (like China).
So what is more likely to happen is we keep having stock prices go higher and higher, cause more and more money would be in circulation (so inflation). But our productive capacity could drop. So we could become much more poor, have little wealth all around, and go to the baker to buy 1 loaf of bread with $1000 price tag.
TLDR: when your economy represents basically “everything”, it won’t crash unless human civilization crashes.
It's called 401ks, literally anyone with a 9-5 job has one. The entire retirement system was designed to keep people invested in the stock market and betting on it.
Not all of us. I prefer hard metals.
Ya beat me to it. Working class people got tricked into turning over their income to be a floor for the US stock market. I always decline 401k benefits at corpo jobs and I love the looks of bewilderment and attempted lectures I've received. It's pretty obvious that HR or someone gets kickbacks for enrolling new employees.
Because the speculative "economy" necessarily grows faster than the actual economy.
Unfortunately the president does not need to care about what his political party thinks about his action. There is the big problem. Now they have a wild tigger running around.
Wild Tigger
Because the stock market doesn't reflect real life
Money and 1/2 of Economics is based on magic and “religious” belief.
$5 parking right next to the bread line. Not bad.
I think that's 25¢
Which is around $5 in today's dollars.
Ah I see. Thanks for clarifying your intent.
What's sad is that $5 parking is a killer deal.
Look up how IBM, Coca Cola and Volkswagen (among many, many other companies that are very much still established to this day) got their boom-times during WW2 by supporting both the allies and the fash at the same time. They profited from everything that happened, in every way, and continue to do so.
Fascism is good for business, so to speak.
IBM, Coca Cola were offered on the American Stock Exchange you potted plant, not the Nazi stock exchange, and Volkswagen was using Jewish slave labor at Auschwitz to make their cars, what the fuck are you talking about. Fascism isn't good for business, it's always destructive. The American Stock exchange still governed by sanity and the underlying business law back by the Constitution functioned as it should during WW2, not the fucking Nazi stock exchange, jesus fuck
You really seem to know what you're talking about so I probably don't have to link you to the article about Fanta which Coca-Cola (as you say, listed on the US Stock Exchange) made the "drink of the nazis" and profited bigtime from.
IBM had major contracts with the nazis and developed some of the earliest rudimentary card computing tech to keep track of all the interred jews in the camps. I bet you knew that as well. IBM wouldn't be around today without those contracts and that early tech (and the money it brought in).
What the actual fuck do you have against potted plants that you would use that as an insult anyway.
This thread made me chuckle. My thanks to both of you.
Look at Tesla stock prices - even after a slight deflation it's astronomically overvalued and divorced from reality.
We're in a speculative bubble baby!
Divorced from reality? Teslas CEO controls Treasury payments as of a week ago.
I cannot think of an easier bet than on a dictator's personal interests rising. Trump is just a sock puppet for a bit. Musk, Vance, etc. are the next Gen of uglier.
The market was significant out of whack before this election even began.
Tesla's stock price is 99% pure (dumb) speculation.
It was dumb speculation until he took down all regulatory apparatus, and grabbed the national checkbook while trump made himself a puppet king. Now any money not in Tesla is crazy.
Stock market is basically meme gambling these days no different from crypto. Its not a reliable indicator of anything.
The stock market is delaminated from the real market, and has been for a while.
How this has happened is not simple but a short version is that as the stock market has evolved it became a key place to put assets with a level of growth expectation. As time goes on the demand for a place for investment without effort (starting your own business vs investing in a businesses stock) keeps getting larger and the alternatives keep getting less desirable (bonds, GICs, etc.) causing a sort of investment feedback loop. There is X amount of money that needs to be invested each year lets say, and if every thing is crashing (waves at the general state of things) it means nothing is since pensions, people and firms still need to have that investment somewhere.
As long as there is still some expectation of return and faith in the current stock market you will have investment and as stocks (and therefor the market) are measured by the demand (the buy vs the sell) we have the current situation. If you want to see what happens when a stock market looses people's faith and therefor investment look at China's stock market crash https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015%E2%80%932016_Chinese_stock_market_turbulence
Maybe we should abolish stock markets.
I think economy, in the sense of money as a concept, is an illusion. We all just agree that money is worth something. When our belief in the American Dollar fails, so would follow any stocks tied up in businesses that rely upon it. Those trillions and tax cuts that Musk has? Worthless.
shrug
That is my hypothesis, anyways. My guess is that we are into a Weimer Germany sort of scenario. I have been converting my money into Euros, with the assumption that America as we knew it is going to die horribly within years. Hopefully, my efforts are pragmatic, not paranoid. 😕
Hopefully, your efforts are paranoid, not pragmatic.
(Not blaming you for how you're coping/preparing, just not personally ready to give up on our country yet) The past is useful because history rhymes, but the future isn't written in stone
More than fair. It would be nice to rub the back of my neck and feel embarrassed for overreacting. Here's hoping your timeline is what happens.
How big are the odds that the billions (later corrected to millions) of saving (a single day of borrowing btw) they did are competent and not a fascist hyper capitalist dictatorship rising?
The stock market is up because nothing has fundamentally changed. Tarrifs are only going to hurt the consumer.
The stock market is based on value extraction and as long as everyone keeps on working and consuming at reasonable level it will continue to hum along just fine.
Some markets and industries will be harmed by this the tarrifs but these are small fractions of the overall economy. There is also a ton of uncertainty since Trump has a tendency to pull back any measure that affects the market averages.
The pain will be felt by workers and consumers but people have to work and we cannot stop consuming so affected workers will ultimately shift to new places and consumption will shift to new products and the skim will continue.
Global markets aren't going to get shaken up because the global market is incredibly resilient. Prices will quiver for a bit but in the long run they will simply route around us and new normals will emerge.
The only way things change is if the people cause it to change. Either accidentally or on purpose. But the change has to be sudden and swift because there are tons of levers built into the system to force us to participate.
Something like national strike might not be enough unless it can be sustained indefinitely and it's not clear how that could occur. I suspect will take several events each gaining the momentum of the last and there is little chance of a first event for occurring.
The stock market is indicating it doesn't think we have the fortitude and despite what we may want to be true, they know a lot about us and our patterns. Our predictability is to their profit, literally.
People don't have to work. This is the assumption the entire house of cards is built on. Those at the top need you to work so they realistically don't have to.
People have to work to live. They're working to make money to buy food at the grocery, or at the other end of the spectrum, they're working by hunting and gathering food.
I'm excluding people with enough wealth to buy their food indefinitely from this discussion. At global scale, not many people are in that category.
We're not there yet. The problem is as we approach it, they just skim more so we will reach a point where we should barely need to work but won't know it.
That skim is how the stock market keeps going up in ways that make no sense to the workers. They've figured out how to profit regardless of the struggles of the working class.
As it stands today, we could probably survive by working one day per week, likely less. The amount being skimmed is that insane.
Because its value was always fictitious.
https://pca.st/episode/6df1a506-9b38-4298-8de5-ec17e71d379b
Here is a great explanation of what you're asking. I trust this channel for news over pretty much anything else.
The stock market is a speculative vehicle whereby predominantly rich people get richer. Generally pointing at everything should indicate a lot of rich people getting richer, so what’s the issue? It’s only if you take the valuation of the stock market as some kind of core health measurement of the economy that it stops making sense. Because it’s not that.
I am hoping at least the first blatant constitutional case to appear before the Supreme Court would rationalize the market to this shift to fascism and overt imperialism.
Because not enough people are selling.
If people / companies don't believe the stocks will lose value they won't sell. If they don't sell they won't lose value.
I’ll agree with what others are saying about speculation but I’ll add a few points…
Meme investing. People just buy shit now. You can download Robinhood or any other free app and buy something you read about because you feel like it. That’s a lot different than traditional stock valuation. And in some cases (GameStop?) the public can have such force that it massively overwhelms traditional stock valuation
The other point is that businesses will still function. Will it suck to have a 20+% tariff? Yes. Will in end a massive global corporation? No. A trade war can’t kill multinationals because they have a foot in both sides, in a sense (that’s a crazy oversimplification)
They have most of the wealth. They don't need the working class. Just jeep purchasing beach others netbooks and number goes up. Realized it wasn't tied to reality during covid.
The stock market holds value because people believe it holds value. There is nothing actually backing any of that up. We dumb monkies just like watching number go up and will ensure number goes up at all costs. It's how capitalism works.
Meh, party true. Say Coca Cola's stock goes down, they still own the infrastructure, the products and the brand. In other words, they have real value that didn't go poof just because their stocks went down.
Much of what we see is bullshit, because bullshit makes headlines. Tesla is a perfect example. This crowd hardly needs a review, but suffice to say that while Tesla has value, it's tanking fast and the stock price will eventually pop and drop to that far, far lower value.
The tariffs will trigger a recession for sure. I think the markets are waiting to see what happens with those. A new war in Europe could trigger one as well, but we'd have to see it first. The rest of the things you listed have nothing to do with the stock market.
I'm not surprised why big companies no matter what morals they claim(ed) to follow still do business like nothing happened. As long as they can strive for profits and shareholder value they will. Big business is the last place one should look for any sort of backbone.
I'm also surprised why there hasn't been more of an impact on the stock market. I wouldn't have expected an immediate drop of 50% or some catastrophic decrease like that. That's because a lot of the incredibly smart economic policies from stable genius will take time to cut into bottom lines. First prices continue to go up for US consumers, spending will go down, unemployment numbers will go up, and then possibly a recession. Which he will blame on Greenland, I suppose.
Stock markets are legal gambling. As long as the gamblers still have hope they will play. Most will play without hope as well. And Trump 45 was good for them so hope is still very much alive.
At the same time, chainsaw wielding deregulation will help businesses in the US. It may not be great for consumers or the environment but tax breaks are great if you can get them. Melon Usk is not bulldozing any sort of oversight for his business interests or the IRS for no reason.
As for uprooting security alliances I think we will see a move away from US manufactured defense goods pretty soon, maybe starting next year. Europe will concentrate on its own industry more than ever. Even if they don't find a common position to take in regards to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, they will all look to increase spending locally rather than transatlantically, having hopefully learned that reliance on Washington is futile.
Defense contacts are harder to get rid of than a Tesla though, these things take even longer to show up on Wall Street. I mention Tesla though because numbers came out recently in France and Germany that showed a dramatic drop in new car registrations. I think this development on the micro level will eventually reach macro proportions as well. I am personally waiting for pitchforks being sharpened in Usk's boardrooms because his doge antics and political statements cut into their bonuses.
Don't even ask the question
The answer is yes, it's priced in.
Think Amazon will beat the next earnings? That's already been priced in.
You work at the drive thru for Mickey D's and found out that the burgers are made of human meat? Priced in. You think insiders don't already know that?
The market is an all powerful, all encompassing being that knows the very inner workings of your subconscious before you were even born.
Your very existence was priced in decades ago when the market was valuing Standard Oil's expected future earnings based on population growth that would lead to your birth, what age you would get a car, how many times you would drive your car every week, how many times you take the bus/train, etc.
Anything you can think of has already been priced in, even the things you aren't thinking of.
You have no original thoughts. Your consciousness is just an illusion, a product of the omniscent market. Free will is a myth.
The market sees all, knows all and will be there from the beginning of time until the end of the universe (the market has already priced in the heat death of the universe).
So please, before you make a post on Lemmy asking whether AAPL has priced in earpods 11 sales or whatever, know that it has already been priced in and don't ask such a dumb fucking question again.
Trump is a businessman, and apparently a good one if you look at his past results, like it or not.
Hence, business making is what he does and encourages in the American populous, again, like it or not.
Of course a Trump presidency will stimulate the stock market. It is what it is.
He bankrupt a casino. Doesn't sound like good businessman.