So is the US slipping into Civil War?
People keep talking about "Federalizing the National Guard" and now you've got other States pledging their NG to Texas in defiance of the Supreme Court (see image).
So is this what CW2 looks like?
P.S. I'm a Brit
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Highly unlikely this is what the civil war would be like. It's not a state v state thing necessarily although that might be a small part of it. In the first civil war, the south unified and its people largely supported the war, except their slaves. It's unlikely something like that will happen again. It's not impossible but unlikely.
What is much more likely is rural v city. Even in red states, cities are blue and will often vote for blue policies. Rural areas are where things get dicey. They've been largely left behind by the surge in industry and general expansion of the capitalist economy we currently have (they've had a lot of businesses (including grocery stores) close because more people are leaving, and their rural towns are frequently having their hospitals close leaving large swaths of areas where the nearest hospital is an hour away). As such, they've got a grudge against the cities. What's likely to happen is rural counties and their local governments trying to cut off their food supply, starving the cities to win the battle. There's tons more possibilities, but this one I think is the one that's got the highest likelihood.
Another possibility that is scary, but is highly dependent on the party of the people in power, is the government using their power to actually strike the cities, like in Syria where Assad bombed and used chemical weapons on his own people. Syria is actually a pretty good example of what more modern civil wars are like, or can be like. Governments v rebels and militias, and cities v rural (although there's much less rural land in Syria).
If you're interested, the podcast It Could Happen Here has a great first season where they go over possible disasters including a civil war and a pandemic (it was actually made in 2019 so before covid). It's really helpful and can teach a lot, especially for an outsider from across the pond. It also does a lot better job giving an explanation and actual sources.
Hope this helps since it didn't seem like you were getting a real answer.
The geographical separation of slave states by an actual border allowed the first Civil War to take place on a stage perfectly suited for traditional warfare. North/South division and the formal joining of the Confederacy by state governments kept it all straightforward. Point South and tell the generals "Go."
It definitely won't be that simple again.
I also recommend It Could Happen Here
Another thing the world ought to know is that the folks who are identified by “red” and “right” in America are in the minority.
Significantly so.
However our voting system uses geography / land as a modifier so while there are less of them they occupy a larger land mass and have an outsized vote strength because of that.
When total votes in a state can be split 45-55 but the delegates go 90-10 there is a problem
Another fun thing about that is that most folks who identify "red" or "right" actually aren't paying enough attention to know that. Go ask them, they think people like them make up 70% or more of the country. If they do try to activate their little civil war they are going to find themselves very quickly surrounded by folks who do not like them at all, as their expected 200-million strong army ends up actually only being 1.5 million people spread out over 30,000+ square miles. Watching the realization dawn on them might actually even be fun if it weren't a herald of Troubles for America.
This isn't accurate. In 2020, 29% of voters identified as Republican, 33% as Democrat, and 34% as independent. There certainly were more Democrats, but only by a 5% margin.
Playing up exaggerated differences between the number of Democrats and Republicans and emphasizing the "we outnumber you" rhetoric is extremist and should be avoided. It makes you a part of the problem.
I had to stop listening to ICHH it gave me way too much anxiety and was just too stressed back when i listened in 2020. I've since taken up to instead listen to BTB and cool people who did cool stuff off the same network. Monsters that are usually dead and people who kick ass make me feel better.
Isn't it even more likely trump disciples vs reasonable people?
So if you break it down (based on the last I looked at it, Pew Research iirc):
The most Trump support is in rural, where more than half support him fully (so full maga territory). Republicans there are more likely to be full maga than in suburbs or urban areas, where republican maga support drops by about 10%.
Democrats in the same areas are fairly equal across the board in their lack of support for trump, about a 50% greater dislike by Democrats in those areas then liked by Republicans.
The urban, suburban, rural breakdown is very accurate as a representation of maga enthusiasm.
EDIT: I though it important to mention too that Republicans in rural areas have an age split as well. Gen X-ish and up is where the support for Trump is, about 50% more than the millennial and under Republicans.
This is oversimplifying the problem. Democrats from urban areas have failed for decades to adequately address the needs and concerns of rural voters. When one party ignores you (and often speaks of you with open contempt), it's a no-brainer that you would be inclined to vote for the party that caters to your concerns. The Democrats handed rural voters to Trump on a golden platter.
"Fuck yeah, secession!" Says the Texan from the comfort of their lounge chair, beer in hand.
These people are too comfortable to ever be willing to die for their stupid ideals. All it took was one MAGA idiot to get blasted on Jan 6th and then they all scattered like roaches. As soon as their lives were on the line, it was no longer a matter of grave importance. They all firmly believed that democracy was at stake, but were unwilling to fight for it to the death because they somehow must have known that it was bullshit, somewhere in the back of their pea-sized brains, they knew.
By the time Texas starts asking people to show up to mustering fields, rifle in hand, the facade will fall apart. Biden doesn't need to do anything. This sideshow of bluster and saber-rattling will fall apart on it's own.
Also, millions of people living in Texas are not originally from Texas and have no particular allegiance to Texas.
Also millions of people in Texas and are FROM Texas don't want this.
Also, as a native Texan that still lives here because it's not feasible to leave, I feel no particular allegiance to Texas. This government doesn't represent anything I stand for – it's infuriating. Fuck Texas, and fuck proud Texans.
And the economic powerhouses of the state (Dallas, Houston, Austin) all lean democratic. This will just make skilled, educated people leave the state and accelerate the brain drain that’s been happening since the 40s.
You're thinking first civil war. This civil war is going to be about bombing and terror. And it will be MAGA idiots bombing govt facilities. But they'll start first with places like gay bars and libraries.
THEN the federal govt will get involved and it will devolve into a shit show from there.
The federal government is already involved. The FBI has been a thing for decades. Are we really going to compare the pathetic levels we have now to the 1950s with the KKK?
Here is the truth to any wannabe terrorist: none of you have gotten smarter but the federal government has. You are one guy, the government is a whole mess of guys spending decades studying ways to stop you. No company has any incentive to help you and has a big incentive to report you. Everyone is tracked now, every transaction recorded, every internet post, heck our very movements.
Random acts are going to happen and it is awful but any kinda coordinated resistance will fail.
Plus you know we are all fat now. Successful resistance movements are led by poor people who can live off the land. That Bundy Ranch ordering takeout thing really illustrated it well. Who do you know in your life that is capable of living in the woods as a revolutionary? Do you really see someone like Hannity or Ted Cruz sitting in a cave somewhere to lead his forces?
texas, or any state, would be crushed forthwith.
It’s not a totally unreasonable impression, but no, this will not turn into a second civil war. The Guard units of each state can be called up for federal duty. The National Guard is part of the US Department of Defense and thus ultimately answers to the DoD and the US president as commander in chief. The US military has multiple components, including regular services (eg the full time Army), reserve components (eg US Army Reserve) and National Guard components. The latter two are part-time military with one weekend per month training duty plus an annual training. Guards members and Reservists hold regular full time jobs.
The Guard units are deployable by the governors of their respective states, and so can be used in emergency situations like natural disasters. They have also been deployed against what have been perceived as riots that threaten lives and properties of the individual states.
However, they are subject to activation by order of the US president and they fall under the national command authority. Guard personnel take the same oath to the constitution as other military personnel, and cannot legally refuse federal activation. Guards personnel would be subject to courts martial and face potentially extreme penalties including being discharged from service under criminal conditions, being stripped of rank and benefits, and jail time in federal prison. This would be what we call a career limiting rule.
So, if push comes to shove, Biden can activate the NG and order them to stand down or to implement policies to maintain order. Thinking the NG units and in particular their commanders would disobey a presidential order because they just love their state governor and hate the president so much is getting into Turner Diaries levels of right wing apocalyptic fantasy.
All of which misses a critical point:
The forming of the Confederacy wasn't "legal" either.
We can handwave away concerns about mounting threats of violence by citing regulation and law, but none of that actually addresses the underlying issue that if these people want to start shit, they will find an avenue.
And let's also not sit here, in 2024, and assume the institutions, norms, checks, and intended safeguards in our system will always work when they need to. We've seen far, far too many breakdowns and failures in our system over the last decade to believe otherwise.
That’s what frustrates me so much about the framing of the situation we’re in right now: most people - and the vast majority of major media organizations - are fully intent on presenting this as “normal”, but it’s very fucking clearly not. It’s assumed by so many that the rules will simply be followed… and then they turn around and cover Trump, whose whole bit is to not follow the rules because he doesn’t feel like it and wants to stay in power forever. It’s like being unconcerned about standing 3 feet away from an uncaged, unleashed siberian tiger because someone once told you at one point that it had been “trained”.
You have to understand that the US military today is a very different organization than it was in the 1860s. I know - I served and majored in military history for my first undergraduate degree, and studied the civil war in particular. I also come from a military family with a father, grandfather, and uncle who served as officers until retirement age.
Far right domestic terrorism is a real and developing threat coming from both former military personnel and from civilians. The election of a far right government that shreds the constitution is also a major threat to American democracy. But if the shit does come down, it’s not going to be because some Guardsmen decide that they’d follow DeSantis over Biden.
Military justice is no joke. Falling on the wrong side of it can end people. The military is also very integrated and has political as well as ethnic diversity. I’m not saying you couldn’t find an Army colonel who wouldn’t want to engage in an armed rebellion, but the country today is very, very different than it was mid-19th century, and so is the military.
Please do note that I do see the rise of American fascism as a real threat. It’s just not going to manifest because state Guard orgs decide to disobey orders.
Thank you for sharing this insight! It's frustrating to hear everyone everywhere speculate about how easily the active military would turn, not considering...well, everything you wrote.
Yeah, ex-military of course is part of the brainwashed; nowhere else in the civilian world (outside of mercenary work) is warfare conducting knowledge of direct use.
Add that our Government has not always done even the bare minimum for our vets, and you got a recipe for the radicalization of the "disenfranchised warriors" (quotation because I don't consider oathbreakers worthy of any title).
They're gonna fall and listen to the honeyed words of Fascism in a different, harder way than your average civilian. That's a call to something they amongst the rest of their group are genuinely and tangibly valuable for--until they aren't.
Same, and I do still worry for the death tolls. That "theirs" (the civilians, who can be said to not know better) would be orders of magnitude higher than any on the military's side doesn't mean I'd like to see deaths on either side.
Since you studied the Civil War, I got a book from my grandfather before he passed, Don't Know Much about The Civil War, by Kenneth C. Davis, and was wondering if you've read of heard of this book and if it would be a good resource or not to read about the Civil War? Or if you can recommend another book or author that is great for learning about the Civil War, I'd appreciate any helpful insights as I'm curious to learn more about the Civil War, thank you.
The Battle Cry of Freedom is pretty widely seen as being one of the best introductions to the civil war.
Thank you! Luckily it's at my local library so I'll pick this up first thing tomorrow if they're open, appreciate your help!
Robert E Lee famously didn't want to fight the North but didn't think of himself as a traitor for doing so, because his loyalty was to his state first, to the US second. And that was a common mindset at the time.
I think it’s possible that there will be resentment, but those with rank would be risking everything for zero gain. It would be determined by the people who wear the birds and the stars, and although there have certainly been high ranking officers who have engaged in conduct we might consider treasonous, it’s simply not going to be a common enough occurrence.
A Handmaid’s Tale scenario, where the US goes down the path of a Christian theocracy, is a possibility that concerns me,
You also have to factor in the fact that the military today is not a bunch of guys with rifles. It is carrier battle groups, fighter jets, sophisticated artillery systems, and other platforms that require massive supply chains to deploy and maintain. That’s just what modern warfare is. US aircraft carriers alone are crewed by 5000+ people.
Raytheon, Northrop, and Lockheed are not going to side with Ohio against the US government. The question is about civil war, not about a single military unit going rogue until the members are arrested or killed. Keeping planes in the air and tanks running requires a lot more than Ohio can do. The Feds spend about a trillion dollars per year on the military, and some Confederate missile battery is going to be in trouble once they run low on things to shoot and when their vehicles start to break down.
I’m not a fan of the military industrial complex, to say the least, but it’s an absolutely necessary part of warfare today.
The difficulty with that scenario is that the US is bound by two oceans and has a navy more powerful in some estimates than the rest of the navies in the world combined. Ukraine can be supplied because they’re contiguous with Western Europe. North Korea could be supplied by China, as could Vietnam. To supply the neo-confederates, Russia or China would have to cross an ocean and get past the US Navy, as well as the navies of other allied countries. Then they’d have to bring in the systems via either Mexico or Canada, both of which would be allied with the US.
I think you could imagine a scenario where they smuggle in small arms, but not artillery or other modern weapons systems.
Unlikely, but if those ng declined federal call up, then all bets are off
You'll find some dumb schmucks that refuse, but there's no way the entire NG would refuse
Right but I'm talking about the mechanics of how it would happen. Agree, logically that many would honor the federal oath
Yeah, like when they got called up against random citizens in Minneapolis...
I said this in another thread-
Most Americans aren't interested or even capable of fighting in a civil war. When you live paycheck-to-paycheck, you're not going to abandon your family to fight on the front lines.
And a huge percentage of Americans live paycheck-to-paycheck.
Texas would have to have a draft.
Good luck with that.
A lot of you all must be too young to remember. This isn't a new thing for Texas to do. They threatened to secede at least once (maybe twice) while Obama was president. Once it was straight out of the North Korean playbook, claiming a training exercise the military was conducting was a cover for a military invasion of Texas.
The older I get the more I eyeroll at the political posturing. It's definitely worse than when I was younger, but also it's all happened before. It's just loud people trying to be loud to keep us all afraid and obediently going to work, then every 4 years it gets loud again so we vote for who they want us to.
Real convenient the border is such a huge issue a few months before the election.
Of course we still have to take it seriously, the minute we let our guard down they start implementing stuff, look at roe v wade, but even then they didn't know what to do after that. It's all about staying in power for them
And thats why I'm not worried about them doing anything other than what they're already doing. They know they would be fucked if they leave.
And if they do? Well then we deal with it when that time comes. Hopefully a bunch of left leaning people leave, including my brother and his wife, and a bunch of MAGAts can go there and talk about how much they love America while also leaving it.
They'd have no issue, they already consider everything outside of their small town to be Fake America.
There was some guy back in the day who was stating in all seriousness, that Texas was more hurt by the 9/11 attacks than New York was.
more butthurt
Texas has made an issue over their independence and God-given right to be Texas, in defense of
theirthe right to own chattel slavery since their first secession. From Mexico. In 1836.Texas reconfirmed their desire to die on the hill of their divine right to own people, by seceding from the US in 1861.
After the civil war, Texas was a haven for the Confederates - and their ideology has been fomenting ever since
They've been talking of secession openly since at least the 1990s.
I think this is the first time since the civil war that other states have involved their national guards in support of a hotbed issue that could lead to a secession.
Edit: correction to grammatical error.
The Dollop did a podcast on Jade Helm as it was happening. Definitely recommend listening to that one if you like American history podcasts. It's episode 100 I believe
At current, this is all posturing. If Biden does engage the military to stop them. Perhaps lock up the governors for treason, maybe it could escalate somewhat. If something did happen that was in the line of being more serious, it wouldn't be a long incursion as long as the military obeyed the commander in chief. The national guard is absolutely no match for even a small slice of the might of the US military.
If something does happen, hopefully they'll shut it down quickly and bloodlessly, maybe finally gather enough strength to enable some Germany type of anti-fascism laws.
We need to fix gerrymandering, we need to fix people screwing with elections. We need to put some strong protections against the propaganda and opinion pieces flowing out of all the news outlets. We need to force free non-political basic education to the entire f****** country so people can make some informed decisions about s***.
I'm tired of everybody looking at politics like it's a f****** football game.
Can we just have a normal, boring year for once, please? I'm so tired...
My take on it is that the Republicans will do their best to drag this out until the election. No compromising or middle ground. Just make it out to be the crazy Democrats fault. This stuff gets to be very predictable after all these years.
This is exactly why DeSantis wants to revive the Florida State Guard.
Biden should ignore Abbott right until the point he signs an order to interfere with Federal agents on duty. Then it's a conspiracy & the Insurrection Act can be brought into play to clean house.
I had to search for that and it sounds kinda bad for states to have their own armies. I mean it's practically the definition of raising an army in opposition to the Federal government. Looking at Wikipedia it was first activated in WWII to make up for the national guard going to war.
That bit makes sense.
But you're not at war and you just reactivated it in 2020. Why? Why would Florida need it's own army? That'd be like the Wales FM creating it's own guard. By it's nature it's in direct opposition to the national (British) military. There's no other way of looking at it.
That feels like a major thing. Am I taking crazy pills - why is no one screaming? This is bad!!
This dog stays barking every single year and hasn't bit anyone yet. Getting tired of hearing about it. Either they're going to do something or they won't, if they don't, then they can shut the fuck up and life goes back to normal. If they do decide to finally do something about it, Texas gets razed to the ground and we rebuild NASA somewhere else. There is no situation here in which any significant percentage of people, except Texans, are going to be in danger. They will not take on the greater federal US and win, it's not gonna happen. If they secede, they die, after losing all federal safety nets and trade agreements and then getting invaded by cartels. If they attempt an actual shooting war, they die, as 25,000 cowpokes show up with surplus AR's just in time for Lockheed Martin to put a warhead on their foreheads.
I want to be clear that I'm not in any way looking forward to this. It's going to be rough and innocent people will die. But there is no legitimate path forward in which Texas doesn't, at best, eat its hat. However that won't stop them from threatening secession constantly. Any time something doesn't go their way - "oh, oh, but I'll leave the union! What then??? What'll you do without Texas??" Fuck off Texas. Either shit or get off the pot but I'm tired of hearing about it. Texas brings nothing irreplaceable to the table and while I definitely do not think that turning Texas into glass is the good ending, it sure is one ending, and might be the one Texas chooses. Regardless I'm not that worried about it. The Gravy Seals wouldn't stand up to an actual well-regulated militia let alone the full force and might of the United States Army. And there are a lot more leftists with guns than the Gravies think there are.
Edit: just realized this was intended in the context of the Florida State Guard - that I know almost nothing about. But Florida is perhaps even less threatening than Texas, and since DeSantis has been in charge they've been doing a lot of nearly identical toothless posturing. All arguments also apply to Florida, except that at least 21% of their population is retirement age or older so they don't even have that many fresh bodies to call on when their state guard gets turned into burger meat within two days of declaration of war.
I hate how people casually write about glassing innocent Americans as an acceptable outcome since it isn’t themselves and their families up for annihilation. “Let’s just get this killing over with it’s just too tedious for me to read about.”
Honestly I hate it too. This isn't the America I saw coming when I was younger. But it's also not like these are unforeseen consequences. Greg Abbott has fucked around and it has now come time to find out. It hurts my heart that innocent people are going to be caught up in the consequences of his actions, but such is the way of war. And Abbott is going to turn this into a war, make no mistake.
Poor men dying for the mistakes of rich men is a tale as old as time and we haven't left that era yet. I wish no harm on the common folk of Texas. But the unfortunate truth is that I'd expect the same in my state, if my state governor decried federal law in favor of murdering migrant children and then threatened secession from the union over it. Abbott is dangerously unstable and is taking Texas down with him. Texas can either rid themselves of this problem, through vote or otherwise, or they can go down with the sinking ship.
I'd much rather just remove and relocate the sensible folks until all that's left in Texas are the treasonous officials and their pet army, and solve this problem without collateral damage. But we all know very well that that isn't going to happen. They can and will use the lives of innocents to shield their own, just like terrorists always have, the world over. And to those people I say, I'm sorry. You don't deserve this. If your death does prove necessary I hope that it can help guide us to a brighter tomorrow, the same I'd hope for my own. But that's the reality of a terrorist warzone, is people will die, and the world keeps turning. There's no point trying to ignore it, in fact the more we actively ignore the situation the worse it's going to get before it gets any better. We need to cut the head from the snake before the snake poisons the rest of the country, or even world.
Yea you’re just as crazy as they are buddy.
No this is all Republican division. It's their only playbook to rally their base. The take home message for everyone is VOTE, VOTE, VOTE. Before the election started up we had a nice quiet 2-1/2 years. This kind of shit only appeals to those that love the chaos that Trump will bring back.
It all seems quite a bit overblown to me. There's legal precedent for the President to take over a state's national guard and use federal troops to enforce a court order (see Brown v Board of Education):
"In September 1957, Arkansas governor Orval Faubus called out the Arkansas Army National Guard to block the entry of nine black students, later known as the "Little Rock Nine", after the desegregation of Little Rock Central High School. President Dwight D. Eisenhower responded by asserting federal control over the Arkansas National Guard and deploying troops from the U.S. Army's 101st Airborne Division stationed at Fort Campbell to ensure the black students could safely register for and attend classes. [...]" (Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brown_v._Board_of_Education)
The current wording of the Insurrection Act provision (which has been amended a few times since initial adoption), according to Wikipedia:
Just my $.02 but I'd guess either the feds back down or Texas does. Hopefully nobody gets trigger happy.
I think the tactical nukes will slow their ambitions for another hundred or so years. We can't take these posturing fools seriously.
Have you just not been paying attention for the last...decade?
Yes, we absolutely should.
No one is using a tactical nuke on US soil. We have enough conventional bombs to destroy ourselves anyway.
And yet, we must. Assume your enemy will lose, but prepare for them to win.
It's not a new civil war reason. It's the same one as last time just packaged up a little different.
Racism
It's not even a new civil war. The last civil war only ended technically. In reality it went cold and has still been being waged all this time. It turned from a war of the rural South against the industrialised north. To a war on the industrialized from the rural.
I, for one, welcome the formation of the New California Republic. Washington and northern Oregon can join too if they'd like.
No, it’s theatrics
An election is upcoming
Those states are going to be in a rude awakening when they realize they are broke because the blue states are by far the largest contributors to federal funding. When they cut that off, the welfare state will come crawling back quickly.
The welfare states regularly turn down federal funding because they do not care about the lower income portions of their state. Alabama will just have fewer people able to feed their selves.
Which they will blame on the blue states.
Texas gets $53,000,000,000 in federal funding every year. They'll cave.
I don't think the conservatives are sufficiently unified to form a single opposition army. The problem with basing your appeals on hating "outsiders" is that you end up with a lot of internal hatred too. There's also a strong undercurrent of "no one can tell me what to do" that makes central control unlikely.
What seems more likely are terrorist incidents, carried out be individuals and small groups, without any overall communication or strategy. We're already seeing some of that. The lack of coordination won't prevent it from happeing, but will prevent it from achieving anything.
I don't think there are very many people within the MAGA movement who honestly want to resort to violence, whatever they tell themselves. The ones who are actually willing are the ones who wanted to hurt someone anyway. Politics provides them with an excuse, not a motivation.
I think we're going to have a nasty time for a while, but I don't think a right-wing takeover by violence has any chance of happening. I'm much more worried about a political takeover that then turns into an authoritarian coup. The left-wing has a much better chance of organizing as a whole, but I don't think there are that many people ready to fight from that side either, but that could change as conditions get worse.
The right has been used, and steadily intensifying stochastic terrorism for a while now. You're right, it's not a strategy for a military takeover of the US. It's just one step in the political takeover.
Minnesota looking across our western border like
Please hurry, I think our state needs help
IKR? Laughing my ass off at the Dakotas and Montana. Bruhs, you have a population of less than a million apiece, sit down.
I read how most experts agree that there will be some kind of "constitutional crisis" within the next decade. The impeachment 1, impeachment 2, and January 6 attacks already show the rumblings of what is to come.
Personally I find it doubtful that a full civil war would be the means though bc of the disparity b/t military resources at the federal vs. lower levels. Thus, probably something else, perhaps extremely mundane e.g. Trump runs for President, and bc of the Israeli conflict in Gaza and whatever else Russia manufactures between now and then Biden loses, then Trump simply declares himself Emperor.
Or maybe even that much paperwork will not happen and the government will simply never pass another federal budget again, thus ending the federal level by default of obstruction.
So probably not Civil War, at this time and over this event (no matter how much the clickbait media tries to get its clicks), but even so... something is coming indeed, down the road in some form.
Honestly, it'll probably wind up becoming an American version of The Troubles. Republicans are cowards, and I doubt there are very many who are truly willing to fight and die for their cause. However, there are plenty of people willing to commit terrorist bombings and acts of sabotage if they think they can get away with it, and the US is huge. There are still plenty of places to hide if that's the case.
And if Trump wins reelection, I can't imagine many blue states putting up with it, and the same thing will happen from the opposite direction.
If it does go down, it'll be rural people driving into cities to shoot them up, plant bombs, or drive people over with their trucks. That's what it'll look like.
"Will"? Check the news... it's been happening for awhile, just not terribly successfully. I think we get something like at least one such event every other month.
I don't know how liberals will react tbh. Usually they try to work within the system, but if that should ever prove to become impossible... I haven't studied enough history to get any kind of accurate impression, but it's worth noting that nothing like it has been needed (within the USA) in the last hundred years or so, so whatever might come seems hard to predict.
I should add that Democrats are also cowards too, as are most individuals - neither side holds a monopoly on that. That's what makes this all so dangerous: if something could be accomplished behind the scenes, then 99.9999% of Americans will simply go along with the flow. Exactly like within Russia, even the thinnest vernier of respectability would be enough to forestall a large-scale conflict. So the "constitutional crisis" might take the form of a fairly bloodless (in the wider sense) coup.
Or Republicans could just keep turning the ratchet, making steady gains wherever they can, then locking in those gains and turtling, obstructing as best they can whenever they do not hold a majority, as they have been doing for decades now. In one sense that's even entirely fair - a democracy should reflect the majority will of the people - except Republicans are aware that white people are becoming in the minority now and so have been changing more and more over time who gets to be counted as "people". e.g. gerrymandering, with the stacked Supreme Court members not opposing it so now it's "legal". Though even that is becoming not enough lately thus they are having to adjust the stakes higher, possibly doing away with voting altogether (yes they are literally talking about that, hence all this discussion about Civil War). They have already been allowed to push that far, which leaves fewer options for them to move forward with short of something drastic.
The trick is that to the uninitiated, much of it sounds reasonable at first - e.g. "states rights" means that we all get to choose our own paths, and what is wrong with that, isn't that "freedom" in the truest sense of the word? The trouble is how the lie is delivered along with the truth: for one, the means by which those gains were achieved has enormous implications, which feeds into two, it was actually always a lie bc they never stop there and always push forward after people accept the first push. i.e., if only appeasement would ever actually work! However, like that famous saying "first they came for...", where even if you don't care about those first few that were come for, eventually they will come for YOU too, and if you had been paying attention then there would be no need to be shocked, shocked I tell you, shocked! Leopards eat faces off, and just bc one hasn't eaten YOUR face off, yet, doesn't mean that it never will. They tend not to change their spots, only their current targets. Like Brexit, many people in the USA won't know what's happening anytime before, during, or somehow even after it has happened.:-(
And some are even joining in with the leopards, neither realizing nor seemingly caring that they are just being saved as future meals for those who are true predators. These "facilitators", together along with the much more numerous "collaborators", collectively are bringing literal (neo-)Nazis back into power.
They’re just trying to “get out the vote” by forcing Biden to do something that they can point to and say “See! You were right all along! The federal government is going to invade and put you all in FEMA camps and make your children go to public school where they will be turned gay!!!”
I realize that that sounds absolutely stupid and it is. If I hadn’t already watched exactly that happen with Jade Helm I would never have believed that people could be that incredibly stupid, but it did and they are. Sigh.
I really hope Biden doesn’t take the bait and just deals with it after the election.
Same shit, different election:
“ On April 28, Texas Governor Greg Abbott ordered the Texas State Guard to monitor the operation, writing: "During the training operation, it is important that Texans know [that] their safety, constitutional rights, private property rights and civil liberties will not be infringed", and requesting "regular updates on the progress and safety of the Operation".”
Wow wiki even has a whole section on conspiracy theories. I feel stupider even reading that. Only makes sense under projection; the far right wants to do exactly what they project onto others.
Mic dropped by Wikipedia editor
Dude even had a fucking citation.
I mean, isn't this kind of keeping with the theme of US civil wars so far?
If I was creating a civil war bingo card based on history of civil wars in the US, "starts over how people with darker skin can be abused or not" would certainly have been on it.
Hm... I should get a gun. And a passport.
Skip the gun. No civilized country will let you have it.
Need something for on the way to the airport
A car is probably better to go to the airport.
yes but they can shoot behind them the whole time offering small but important time savings from the boost it provides
A car with guns fastened to it.
Finland, Sweden, Germany, Belgium, etc.
The only thing is that they won't allow you to import guns you already have. You have to buy new ones there
The Governors are unserious idiots playing with fire hoping they won't get burned by a rando of their idiot base taking it too far.
The real risk for Americans remains a situation like The Troubles, not armed conflict between states and the federal government.
More people need to track to your point about The Troubles. It's where I'd think things progress.
I honestly don't think the active duty and national guard units would be willing to fight each other. A lot of guard guys are former AD and AD gets supplemented by guard all the time. Some missions they even work side by side with active guard positions.
The states leveraging their guard units like this strikes me as highly presumptuous.
NG units are usually paid from federal dollars, if NGB says knock it off the top brass at their state JFHQ will comply because most of them don't want to lose federal recognition. There may be a handful of extremists in the ranks but the vast majority of NG members aren't going to be insurrectionists, they just want to get their drill check, if the checks stop coming they will too. Most states are extremely reluctant to pay for state active duty so I bet this goes away once NGB pulls funds.
Guard units are also only under state control until they're not. By the book anyway the DoD(?) can say "okay you're activated under federal orders now, so you are now active duty, do this instead".
Texas governor: fire on US soliders to give me a political win
National Guard: no.
I'd love to think this is true but when I was active back in the day there were a LOT of right wing militant nuts. I can only assume that's skyrocketed in the years since.
What's AD? Army Division?
Active duty.
The feds
I don't know if anybody answered your question, lemmy is weird about replies deleted or not showing. AD is Active Duty, which is anyone in the federal component of the military i.e. not guardsmen. "Active" means full-time, and most guardsmen are one-weekend a month, so they are not active. It's a little fuzzy, because if a guardsman is on full time orders, depending on where the money is coming from, it could be called AGR, or Active Guard Reserve, but they are not technically Active Duty (AD).
All you really need to know is that AD is just the Big Army or Big Air Force, paid for and run by the federal government, and the national guard is distinct from AD because of split loyalty to state and federal govt, and they are usually paid by the state. Otherwise, same regulations, same uniforms, same bad leadership.
Same initial training too. I went to basic training and tech school with a lot of guardsmen.
I was in the Army NG for 6 years. The president is still Ultimately the top of the chain of command and we swear the same oath to the constitution.
I just want to throw out there that it’s just not really like that. There is no chance of civil war from inside the army in this manner. The big green weenie gets everybody in the end.
Edit: like for example, we all wear the same unfiroms, they both do US Army on the front. They have the same MOS (military occupational specialty) We receive the same training, at the same places, and both go to overseas for deployments as well.
Usually, you get deployed twice during a 6 year contract for the National Guard. When they aren’t deployed the NG trains at home bases in their states and sometimes in large Active Military Bases for Various reasons. So it’s all very much intertwined.
Not only that, but a lot of the NG equipment comes from federal contracts. Good luck getting tank parts and missiles once yours are all gone.
This has to be purposefully not getting media coverage so as to not incite panic/public support, right? When I saw the first ruling posted by Gov Abbott it seemed almost like a secessionist rant, but it’s NO WHERE to be seen in MSM
I'd say its not getting coverage because Texas talks about seceding almost every year and states have been using their national guard as political tools for years now.
When the national guard was sent to DC after the insurrection, Texas pulled their national guard back because of "poor treatment". I was there, there was no poor treatment. Texas (and several more states afterwards) used their national guard as a political tool to make the other side seem bad.
Texas doesn't talk about seceding. A tiny miniscile handful of people who live in Texas talk about it.
Very good point. I’d like to also think it’s not getting attention as to avoid prompting more idiots from joining in on the idiocy, but that’s likely me giving MSM too much credit.
Attention is what they want. They want drama. They want the illusion of high stakes. We shouldn't give them what they want.
Them defying the supreme court is a step they haven't taken before. It forces Biden to respond or look incredibly weak. Either he allows a red state to actively break federal law and make treasonous statements or he arrests Abbott. It's not just drama anymore.
It's 100% drama. They've got you caught up in it.
No one in the National Guard is going to stop the CBP from cutting the fence down because their pension is on the line. The government of Texas doesn't control that.
They were ordered to stop putting the fence up, ignored it, and continued to put the fence up. Yes, if the Texas National Guard is federalized they probably won't refuse orders but that has to be an active choice by Biden to do. Until then, they are under the Governor's orders which have been to ignore the supreme court ruling and federal law.
It is the definition of treason as the Governor is expected or trusted to obey federal laws.
Point of order: Nobody in Texas has been ordered to do anything. They're completely allowed to put up razor wire under whatever rule Abbot cited. The court order was to allow the federal border guys to cut the wire if they needed to.
Legally, Texas is allowed to put up wire, and also legally the feds are allowed to cut it. That's it. It's a literal Looney Tunes situation. The nonsense from Abbot and the rest of the Rs is just chest-puffing.
They've been ordered to allow the federal agents to carry out their duties but adding new wire has "effectively barred" the agents from doing what the supreme court has ruled they have the legal right to do. Yes, they're allowed to cut holes in existing wire but by constantly adding new wire and barriers, it's actively defying that ruling.
I know the ruling doesn't explicitly say "Texas can no longer put up razor wire" but this is like being told by your mom "your brother is allowed to play on the xbox" and you giving them an unplugged controller. They're allowed to play on the xbox, you're allowed to give them an unplugged controller, but you actively went against her ruling and earned a whooping.
But Texas already blocked CBP from a portion of the border https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-blocks-federal-border-agents-processing-migrants-eagle-pass-shelby-park/
Because the CBP barely tried to access it? I feel like the CBP was just told to wait them out, like a child. Let Texas have a temper tantrum and wait.
They probably had to wait for the fence cutting equipment anyway. This isn't the DMZ border with North Korea. If there was a pressing reason to do it, it would have already happened.
Like I've said before, if Biden really wants to access it he could just sign the federalization order at 8 AM EST. All the Guard troops would wake up to a direct order to sit their asses down or lose their pensions. By 10 AM Texas time, the fence would be on the ground or the Guard CO would be unlocking the gate.
But that's what Abbott wants to happen so he can escape this dumb situation he created. Biden is trapping him by not taking the bait. Now Texas looks dumb paying money to lose in court. Abbott wants Biden to do something so he can shout "Federal overreach!" and get donations.
https://www.mediamatters.org/cnn/cnn-legal-scholar-steve-vladeck-debunks-greg-abbotts-claims-about-texas-control-border
These would be 'rebel' states are among the poorest and most heavily dependent on federal subsidies. They need the US more than the US needs them.
i keep seeing comments like this. i want to point out texas has a LOT of poor and uninsured people, but the state economy is pretty decently sized with a lot of business investment.
that's not really a bad thing for preventing secession. you think those with energy and tech money want their shit fucked up by Abbott and MAGA?
edit - speeling
Fuck I hate my governor...
This will all blow over once Trump fucks off to private dementia care to escape prosecution.
AKA Epstein's Loli Island
I can't imagine it disappeared with him, I wonder who's running it now.
Donald Trump, of course!
Gotta grab 'em by their pussies!
That's disgusting even in context
Exactly!
Trump is beating Biden in the polls and bookies have him as the favroite to win.
Unless some states that matter kick him off the ballot the US is headed for 2nd Trump presidency.
Polls and Bookies: America's finest first option for information gathered from boomers.
Yeah you hear about bookies going out of business from bad lines all the time. /s
The house always wins. Haley is 20 to 1 just to win the nomination.
And polls are off but rarely outside the margin of error.
I don't hear anything about Bookies, ever. But do go on.
Obama was well behind in the polls to Hillary a year out from the election. 45% to 27%. Polls right now mean nothing.
God help the entire world.
Taking into account the overall average of all the comments posted to tour question:
It looks one the answer is:
No one knows.
And as usual, the ones that act like they do know, are specifically the ones you should ignore.
Thanks for the summary. I just heard about the Florida State Guard in another comment. It's been reactivated and I'm honestly more shocked that's happened than this new thing. Creating an army separate from the main government is kinda the definition of starting an armed rebellion. But no ones panicking. The last time Florida had a state guard was WWII when it made sense cos the NG left.
But there's no war. Everyone seems very calm and complacent right now.
Which makes me wonder - do you reckon Trump is shouting this stuff and Florida is provoking the Federal Government could be so Biden federalises so Reps can start shouting "Inssurection" and accuse him of doing what Trump did?
So basically pretend to sart a Civil War and if/when Biden moves to protect the Union Trump can scream - "EVIL INSSURECTIONIST DICTATOR".
Cos that seems like a really, really stupid and dangerous thing to do. Normalising this level and extreme of sabre rattling is not good.
Ain't no way this is actually going to happen, any attempt at succession will be put down by the much larger national military. There will be no civil war.
Eh there won't be an organized civil war of large standing armies, but I can definitely see the Redneck militias doing some damage. If it dragged on long enough they could theoretically get organized somehow.
I really doubt that the politicians in the GOP states want a Civil war though, it is gonna be hard to extract wealth from the poor if the whole system explodes.
i also notice nobody mentions the possibility that cartels could try to take advantage of any significant unrest in some states. i doubt states or feds want that mess.
If any deep red states try to leave, why not just let them?
Because not everyone there actually wants to leave.
It's violating the will of the people. They're removing people from their country without consent or notice; no referendum nor opportunity to leave.
If they vote on it Brexit style it will be one thing. If 51% of the population shows up and votes 51% to leave we can consider it. Wait until that happens.
Compare the map you posted with the population map
There is many more people in the states that would be a Union Army, the fools that would wage war on the United States would be defeated and most Americans wouldn't even need to do anything but watch
Don't forget to cut Texas up into three roughly equal categories:
The loud fascists fomenting this shit
Their quiet neighbors who hate them, their ideas, and every single word they ever utter.
The Oblivious / Disinterested
And statistically, about half of each of those categories are armed.
The real problem is that they cut us up along crazy lines and lump the second and third groups together, so that the nice bluish-purple i see out my window looks bright red from space.
Certainly would be exciting as an Australian
Seen from the outside and ignoring all the innocent people suffering, I would love one thing about the USA splitting up, it would be the perfect example of how shitty things can get when people don't realize they live in conservative locations that depend on the goodwill of more progressive locations. Split the USA like on OP's map and just watch as the red part devolves into a third world country.
It would be rad for me too. I don't wish harm to Americans of course, but I think it's about time they start throwing hands instead of whining on the internet 24/7 about how much they hate eachother.
I found your wife! --> 🦘
I found ya mum -> 🐄
Fuck Trump and his shit-headed followers forever.
Wait. The first civil war ended? /s
History is about to repeat itself so you know what? I'm going to sit here north of the border watching you guys burn
From what I've heard, the supreme court decision was mostly about the feds having access to the border, and the ability to cut down the razor wire, rather than any specific opposition to the razor wire existing in and of itself. I would wager this whole deal is mostly just a kind of political play, to try and egg biden into doing something stupid, while simultaneously keeping up the appearance that everyone at the head of these states is doing something dangerous, anti-institutional, and counter-cultural, even though they're all kind of inherently unable to do anything along those lines just as a matter of their positions.
Everybody's correct when they say that the political divides in this country are less clear-cut, but I also don't think that the radicalization that we've seen, as a matter of perspective from being in online space, necessarily reflects reality. I think if you look at most people, most people want social security of some kind, and want healthcare of some kind, and want drug legalization of some kind, and want us to stop fighting wars in some form. Those are all kind of generalities, because the specific mechanism by which people want those things achieved differs from person to person. It's very fractured as a matter of course, as a matter of how our political system and society is set up, and the ruling class has taken advantage of this to enact a divide and conquer strategy, where they can selectively promote whatever ideological positions benefit them the most, and cordon everyone off into a relatively small set of solutions over which they have a high amount of control. Rather than, you know, what a good democracy might do, which is come to a compromise solution, that everyone but the most extreme propagandized radicals might be kind of okay with. There is a reason why lots of conservatives like communism, as long as you use the right words. Both parties attempt to be mostly "populist" parties. This is all kind of obvious, right, but people understate the degree to which it's a deliberate thing, and the overstate the degree to which it's been successful, you know, which isn't surprising, because, again, serves the interests of the powerful. People aren't, broadly, morons, people have realized that this is all the case. That's mostly what the "radicalization" that you've seen online has been, people just realizing that they hate these shitass solutions that aren't really compromise solutions. See how everyone is cripplingly disappointed with the democratic party, and also how, likewise, conservatives are consistently disappointed with their own party, as well, and for many of the same reasons, barring the extreme radicals.
Most people are focused on how the internet divides people into radicalized swaths and conspiracy theorists, which is true, but even the mainstream monopolized internet is kind of a good tool for mass mobilization. See the occupy movement and the arab spring for older examples, for more recent examples, maybe the george floyd protests, or the french retirement protests. The only risk of these is kind of that they more easily get co-opted as a result of their visibility, i.e. "defund the police" gets turned into an argument for "fund the police". If you were an asshole, you could cite charlottesville, or jan 6th, for examples of internet mobilization, but those are relatively smaller scales of things, compared to the others, which were more popular, they just got disproportionate media attention relative to their size, and had disproportionate political effects.
I think if we're looking at the true, extreme political radicals, we're seeing them come about as a result of a kind of well-oiled engine. I'm not gonna say that this is an institutional kind of thing, and it's maybe more of a third level effect of active decisions, but it's still something that, nonetheless, has been deliberately constructed. 4chan is funded by a japanese toy company and a hands off japanese internet techbro, and is administrated by some former american military freak who's deliberately organized the site. The more radical offshoots, that use the same source code, tend to be funded by oil money, and political action committees, but through second-level effects, where they fund some small level conservative actor, and then they prop up the space. Which churns out some radical terrorists that are capable of your more fucked up bombings, and shootings, and controlled and coordinated protests. And then you kind of get military people at almost every level of this, in lower numbers, who act to control the space.
I dunno what I mean to extrapolate from all of this, but yeah. There's probably not going to be a civil war.
So.... there's still a chance then....
If you read the popular opinions around 1860, we have the same “we are right and we’ll show them” attitude building up in the new poor-people-and-women slave states.
Yeah I see it (as a not American looking in from outside the country). Every time I visit the USA, the changes in things are more and more visible.
did we even have a federal military back then tho? because we have one now and no state could prevail over it.
The US Regular Army (RA) was founded in 1775. State militias supported the RA through the various wars fought on what is now US soil (including the Revolutionary War and the War of 1812). In the Civil War, the RA was supported by volunteers and fought on the side that ultimately won. The Confederate Army was similar to the RA at the time. Currently, the RA has been absorbed into the US Army (including Army Reserve and National Guard).
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regular_Army_(United_States) and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_United_States_Army
So... yes there was a federal military, but it was a different thing than the US Army is now. How that would play out if things went bonkers in 2025... who knows. There are a LOT of people around the world watching VERY closely though... and really hoping (not that confidently though) that sanity will prevail.
Apologies, but too verbose and meandering to gain insight/understanding from (and I tried). Also, its murder trying to read that on a phone (vs PC monitor) to boot.
Appreciate the attempt though, thank you for that.
I don't even come to a conclusion in the thing itself, but the tl;dr is basically just that this is all political farce, political theater, and the nature of the opposition's control is too like. granular, too atomized, to be able to co-ordinate a large scale war. What we see instead are discrete "events", discrete attacks, civil unrest which is corralled and channeled towards political ends by political powers. That's what we see, we don't see like, large scale organized institutional conflict, because the institutions are (mostly) all on the same side.
This shit needs to stop. As a Texan (by force...) I'd absolutely be joining the feds to fight against Texas.
Holy dog shit! Texas?! Only steers and queers come from Texas, Private Cowboy! And you don't look much like a steer to me so that kinda narrows it down. Do you suck dicks?
Brit humor everyone. Never change.
I think it’s from the boot camp scenes in the movie Full Metal Jacket.
No I know it was just a really weird time to try and use that line. I can only assume they were trying to be funny while the guy prior was coming to terms with the peril of being a Texan right now.
Jus'a bi'o'banta!
No better time to make a joke than when times are dark!
Alright, you won me over. littol bitta bantah.
Agree. Weird timing
It absolutely is. Sgt. R Lee Ermy was a master at comedy
He's quoting Full Metal Jacket.
I don’t see how the national guard isn’t already federal, it’s the national guard, not the state guard. They get called up just like regular military for wars.
Cut off their money, court martial them, dishonorable discharge, take away their guns and vehicles. These belong to the military, not Texas.
No.
Thank you for your indepth and insightful analysis. 👍
Haha
What is curious to me is these are state departments disagreeing, though the previous civil war was fought between federal and state governments with raised armies.
This time I was expecting the police vs. militants. Uncontrolled civil unrest. Portland and Minneapolis but spread across the nation, cranked to eleven.
We thought we were getting a proper class war and instead we get fascist versus not fascists but they still hate you
Portland and Minneapolis? So like, a protest/campout in one or two square blocks while everyone else goes about their normal business?
And the same footage of that one or two blocks being ran for over 6 months on loop
In Minneapolis at least one police station was burned down, as well as some commercial buildings. But what is interesting to me is the degree of lethality law enforcement tends to resort to during even peaceful protests.
What I thought was interesting in Portland were the DHS Stormtroopers / LGMs abducting protestors without identifying themselves or their purpose, which figured into to escalation of the protests around the ICE building.
So yes, I'm expecting either white power militant groups or law enforcement, masked up and without identifying marks to conduct raids on minority neighborhoods and community buildings associated with left-aligned organizations like BLM.
That or law enforcement accelerates its usual overpolicing of non-white neighborhoods and covers larger regions until the people can't stand it anymore and start organizing resistance efforts. In Nazi-occupied Paris, it was the brutality of the German occupation that compelled Parisians to fight back. La Résistance evolved from independent mischief-makers to a formidable fighting force across three years.
But you're right, if it's just protests and OWS style campouts, and the police don't misbehave too much, it's not going to be much of a civil war. But so far, we can count on the police getting their murder on when they feel the civil unrest doesn't respect their authority enough. And unlike Ferguson (or the Civil Rights movement in the 1960s) smartphones with cameras are ubiquitous, so they can't deny when they pull a hit like Tamir Rice.
Biden needs to send the army to Texas and arrest Winey Greg.
No no he just needs to appease his murderous posturing!
Abbot will be satisfied with getting what he wants for no cost to him, surely.
God, I'm a political genius.
I can't speculate as to what Abbot wants, but he's definitely asking for an armed confrontation with the U.S. Military, and as a Texan, I think Biden should give only Abbot exactly that.
there is such thing as an unlawful command. Is there a way the military deals with such commands?
I'm not aware of anything outside of the civil war. There have been impeached governors sure, but the feds stepping in to stop one or more states from being egregiously bad happened only once that I know of.
Joel? Is that you?
There is a fine limit on malarky, upon exceeding their malarky quota we glass texas.
Are you Joel? I know you!
It's me Joel!! Don't you recognise me?
That#'s right! You remembered. From the restaurant in town. How are you?
Better than the police treats people in the US?
Weak king, so the local lords smell the opportunity to gain power, tale as old as time.
It's a supposed to be an amusing parallel with events people used to read about in history books. King is just a placeholder for someone with power, and if this person is perceived as weak, people down below in hierarchy might challenge that person. You are welcome.
A lotta people's shitty 2nd amendment logic is about to be tested.
Could they not at least bunch up a bit so it's easier to build a wall around them?
Dumbasses once again saying, "Now is the time!" when they're clearly outnumbered and outgunned.
We can beat them! The US Army, Navy, Air Force, and that other one that no one cares about, they don't stand a chance!
Like, we can all joke about civil war and splitting up the red and blue, but, like, when it comes down to deciding who gets the nukes in the divorce, it becomes pretty obvious that it's just super dumb to think about realistically.
There's two now; two branches no one cares about.
I'm an american and an idiot. I thought the National Guard was a Federal organization?
Regardless Governor Abbott is a hateful idiot, along with all of the other leaders in Texas. I just left Texas because I can't handle paying their salaries anymore, though I went to Louisiana where they are somehow more corrupt but also bigger idiots.
It is. It got federalized during World War 1 and later the supreme Court basically ruled that the federal government wasn't allowed to do that but they weren't going to make the federal government give control back to the individual states anyway.
These days some states have state guards, but not all do. Of those that do, a significant amount are absolute jokes. It's fairly logical, of course. What state has needed an army in the last hundred years?
I read this shortly after posting and apparently NG is State managed unless it gets "federalized" which means the Federal Government takes over.
Oh, this'll be fun in the future when people try to whitewash it. We'll have another chance to follow up by asking, "a state's right to what, specifically?"
to drown parents and kids, i guess. ☹️
but honestly, i think Abbott is engaging is massive political theater. i seriously doubt that man's interests are served by actual conflict.
Ayo check out the Cornfederacy up there!
All of the recent news surrounding Texas tells me we need to return to a more literal reading of the 10th Amendment. Bring back dual federalism.
Neither an American nor knowledgeable about constitutional and amendment law - would you mind elaborating please?
Context: The United States government has a federal structure, unlike most governments. This means that the federal/national government and the state governments have distinct divisions in power and responsibility. For example, the highest level of law enforcement that can legally exist is at the state level. Rogue Supreme Courts have made illegitimate and tyrannical rulings to grant the federal government some police power, even though the Constitution and Bill of Rights clearly reserve police power to the states.
That only the states have police power was implicitly understood prior to the ratification of the Tenth Amendment, the final amendment in the Bill of Rights. The Tenth Amendment states that whatever powers and rights are not expressly granted to the federal government in the Constitution shall be reserved to the states or to the people. Since police powers are not expressly granted to the federal government, only the states may enforce laws. Again, illegitimate rulings by rogue Supreme Courts have granted this power to the federal government with no legal basis.
Dual federalism is this divide between the power of the federal government and the state governments. Over time, especially since the administration of President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, dual federalism has been eroded without meaningful constitutional amendments. Most people are generally satisfied with this, but when a state has significant differences with the federal government on the enforcement of the law or on matters of authority, the easy solution without having a civil war is to return to the state that which rightfully belongs to it: The powers implicitly reserved to it by the Constitution.
Other than those illegitimate Supreme Court rulings, only Texas has the authority to enforce border laws in Texas. The federal government, technically speaking, has no authority to enforce border laws anywhere, unless a constitutional amendment is ratified granting it such power.
Most large countries have a federal structure. Just from my memory, Canada, Mexico, Brasil, Germany, Spain, Italy, Nigeria, South Africa, the UAE, Russia, China, India, Indonesia and Malaysia at least.
Isn't this just normal federalism?
The vast majority of governments around the world are not federal. However, it is a popular system in countries that have diverse territory and demographics.
From Wikipedia:
If you grew up in the United States, it stands to reason that dual federalism would be the default form of federalism to you. Also, since the 1930s, the 10th Amendment has been largely (and illegally) ignored, so today we mostly experience "marble cake federalism". The way the Constitution is written, however, does not legitimize any form other than dual federalism with distinct and separate powers granted to the federal government and the states.
Thank you. I guess my country has a mix of these, depending on subject.
Thanks for explaining this. Your wording has a distinct bias of American exceptionalism, since your first sentence is patently incorrect - federal and unitary governments are roughly evenly represented across the world's 200-odd governments. Not an attack, just a reasoned criticism, which may help explain the downvotes.
I was interested to learn about dual federalism and Eisenhower's layer- and marble-cake metaphors. I didn't realise that dual federalism was distinct, as I'm not a constitutional lawyer and am primarily familiar with Australian federalism and secondarily those of the US and Canada. In retrospect it's unsurprising that the Australian federal system can be described with the layer cake metaphor, since our federation in 1901 was based on the American model!
It's an interesting observation about the layer cake system, where states have primacy, becoming a marble cake, where constitutional law has been (probably deliberately) overlooked in the US over the years. It reminds me a bit of the gerrymandering and malapportionment issues, not to mention the electoral college systems affecting fair and open democracy in your country.
Good luck with it all - your insights will help me keep a keener eye on Australian developments to slow Australia's slide towards the corruption of the fine American model. As seen in the (alarmist and fearful) question posed by the OP, the decay of democracy happens slowly until it becomes utterly obvious to most that the rot has spread throughout.
Thanks for your response. I am currently taking an American government course in my university and in the class it was explained that relatively few countries have federal systems. The Wikipedia page on the topic only lists 20 countries that currently have federal systems.
I'm always looking for more knowledge and information, so I'm curious what your source is that around 100 countries have federal systems of government. It seems like a large discrepancy from the information that I am aware of.
Yeah, it's definitely alarming. The fact that the US government has basically given itself power that it's not supposed to have freaks me out a bit whenever I think about it. Something for citizens of any country to watch out for.
Fair enough - I knew I should have supported that claim. An earlier commenter did, listing many - my claim probably represents a lot of countries with larger populations and/or enough wealth to support regional representative government. It may not be the majority - smaller countries like Tonga and Eswatini are notionally unitary monarchies, but I'd still be surprised if there weren't chiefs on each island or in each significant town or region in most countries. It's harder to qualify - my claim probably comes from looking at a world map and seeing 50-50, but it's probably Mercator projection and recognition bias (I may be able to name all countries and their capitals, but not the ins and outs of their government systems, given it gets murky).
Again this is an unsupported gut feeling, but this is what corrupt countries do, and I was going to say the US is nearly the only 'marble cake' democracy but I suppose people might be able to say "what about the Democratic Republic of the Congo?" which everyone knows is neither democratic nor a proper republic, but a barely-functioning government representing a large and valuable area of land easily manipulated by richer countries for its wealth. I suppose what I mean is that the US has, at least until recently, been the country most others and commentators sycophantically praise as a true democratic marble cake federation, when it is not truly democratic, it's just wealthy, and that wealth is held by oligarchs in the same way as federations like Russia or Brazil.
Maybe my point wasn't valid. Maybe it was a gut feeling. I don't know any more, I'm just a downtrodden man.
“take over texas” as if the federal govt wasn’t already in control of the states. the states pay federal taxes, and they receive various federal benefits. texas isn’t some separate nation. it’s just one of the regular 50 states.
Honestly I wouldn't be surprised.
Like even if this thing with states acting up doesn't work out the people they are speaking too are definitely gonna still be riled up.
It seems obvious to me that they are probably planning something for the upcoming election since they would try and make sure that another "election steal" wouldn't happen again.
The only way that I see this not turning into a civil war is for government to somehow change the conversation drastically so that people aren't asking these questions.
Because if people begin asking these questions then people planning to do stuff are gonna be even more anxious and try and do the thing earlier.
I'm not sure how they would change the conversation though because all the republican population is going to just ignore them and still think we are heading towards a civil war making it just more likely to happen.
IDK but I got shut down when I asked a few weeks ago.
I'm sorry that happened to you, and you're right, all signs are pointing to a second civil war in the U.S.
what does that even mean?
The states are beginning to openly disrespect the authority of the federal government. Texas Gov. Abbott directly said he believes Texas State law supercedes federal law. There is no basis for that position in law; the law dictates exactly the opposite. If Texas refuses to respect the authority of the United States of America and the rulings of the Supreme Court, the only way to resolve that is civil war.
okay bud but what does "civil war" mean, here, now?
When people say "civil war" they mean a lot of things
i'm not sure what it means, but we do have a lot of national military stationed here. so that's a factor.
The US is the next empire to fall. I am a US citizen and i am taking steps to GTFO if needed. I have an e-residency and ID card from another nation and am working up to the investment for full citizenship.
I mean, the issue is that most of the rest of the so called free World (and in my opinion correctly so), especially Europe, depends on the US for defence, specially weapon production. Despite France constantly whining about it, insisting on strategic autonomy, as far as I am aware, when it comes to ammo production and air power, we very much depend on the US for production and designs (the design when it comes to aircraft)
If the American empire falls, it's not going to reduce weapons production or arms sales. Decline into fascism requires more guns and bullets, as they get turned against domestic targets, while guns and oil are among the US's best sources of external currency.
The United States military should scale way back, but the European military would have to increase because of what you mentioned with designs for specialty weapons.
We have reasonable designs for almost all weapon categories, except maybe for airplanes, with the latest being the Eurofighter which is by now a bit dated. Regarding Tanks, the German Leopard is as far as I am aware a fine piece of engineering as well as the belgian FN-SCAR. However we lack the ammo capabilities (especially when it comes to artillery shells) to ever have hope of winning a protracted war (or simply keeping Ukraine alive). (also, quick side note, France also spends a great deal of money maintaining their own nuclear arsenal and weapons delivery system, which kinda makes the UK seem a bit puny with their dependence of the US for weapon delivery)
Please explain the e-residency and id card thing. I’m in the red area and really really don’t want to be.
Oh, then the place I am looking at would definitely not work for you. I don't think... Ever heard of Liberland?
A country run on a blockchain. Fucking yikes. I think a “ship of fools” is putting it generously.
This reminds me of Auroville, a village in India that's supposed to be an Utopia of socialism and new humanist living. But when you look beyond the marketing and the veneer of spirituality, it's just a bunch of people living in poverty and giving their money to a group of leeches.
Oh. Yeah. That’s gonna be a no from me dawg. Thank you for the reply though.
Just FYI, Estonia is a real country and also viable.
But I think I'd much rather stay on the 5th column.
No.
No, the civil war 2 looks like mass shootings and terrorists attacks. It started with the Oklahoma City Bombing. Liberals just refuse to acknowledge it's existence.
There's an argument to be made, though, tha the US has always been in a state of civil war. The Spartans would symbolically declare war on their slaves every year. That's kind of what slavery is: a constant war on a portion of the population. That's aside from the whole genocide of native folks. Since the 13th amendment didn't actually ban slavery, it never ended and if you look at standing rock, you know that whole native genocide thing never ended either.
Then when you contextualize all this with stuff like the Red Summer, you realize the recent violence is just the normal terrorism that white supremacists do every now and then to get control back. There probably won't be a war with two side, more just escalation violence from one side leading to the systematic murder a huge chunk of the population. The question is if it will be officially sanctioned like the Holocaust, or continue with the ad-hoc stochastic terrorism like the Rwandan genocide and the Serbian ethnic cleansing.
I expected more snipers, bombings, and attacks on infrastructure but if Trump wins it's definitely gas chambers.
Democrats are too afraid of "real war" to actually do something about this. If they did they might have to deal with the mess for real and open themselves up to political challengers from the left.
A good portion of Democrat voters are boomers who created this reality by selling off everybody's futures to corporations. It's not that they're afraid, this is precisely what they had in mind.
Serious question. Couldn't Texas just hold a referendum to scede?
Nah, just giving Texas back to Mexico.
Living in Georgia rn, I'm pretty confident the state won't be seriously attempting succession in the near future. The political will simply isn't there.
It's interesting that the fairly small group who want (or think they want) succession are forced to share a political party with the country's most nationalist. I suspect any serious attempt at it now would further divide the Republican party.
States right right?
To do what again?
Paris in the
the spring
Not the important part of this.
No, Tim Pool.
I dunno who that is, sorry. :/
Good, Dim Tool isn't worth the attention.
The disunited states has gone post-truth. When two sides vying for power don't agree on the nature of reality, ie immigration vs invasion, I don't see how there can be any agreement or good faith negotiation. So how can the result be anything but war? Whoever invented the notion of alternative facts has a lot to answer for.
Why not Arizona? That's surprising.
Literally every state surrounding mine is willing to do this and mine isn't.
I gotta say, for once I'm impressed with Mississippi
Civil war 2: Electric Boogaloo, also: Blammo?
This all have a strong brexit vibe, but taken to the next level in a very MURICA! style.
Or USSA 1991
who's the Youtuber in the bottom right
It's Hasan Piker aka Hasanabi
Oh that's cute, the state I live in is supporting treason. Well we all know what the punishment for treason is. Hope they're just posturing because if these morons actually try this shit they're going to get rolled over.
Wait, dead Republicans might actually make the country better. This might be okay.
So guys just in case, can you like maybe hand over your nuclear launch codes. You can have them back when you've calmed down.
Apparently our generals take those very seriously. I had fantasies Mattis was going to stab Trump with a steak knife to stop him from pulling a Stillson. IRL, Mattis said I'll get on that right away, sir ...and then just didn't.
I'm pretty sure Mattis was the top ranking agent of the Deep State and that figured into why he got replaced with Esper. In the meantime, there's a long chain of officers who are eager to interrupt an unnecessary nuclear exchange.
Here you go
1-2-3-4-5
Spaceballs
Up until the seventies it was 00000000
If you look at history it takes more than this. I doubt people would go to war over illegal immigrants.
It always was.
Lol no.
Why?
He probably lives in an area where he wouldn't be impacted too much and/or from a demographic that wouldn't be directly persecuted.
I'm terrified by the thought, on behalf of myself and others.
I want to know why Texas is putting their children in the river in the first place.
They're Mexican children that are drowning so it's ok.
Texas is kidnapping Mexican children and drowning them in the river?
I heard from others that it's an invasion. So massed regiments of Mexican children invading the border. That's why the National Guard are involved. To beat back the masses of child soldiers.
I mean, all a politician has to do is say "I will oppose Bidens open border policy" and they'll win an election.
All Biden has to do is not allow an open border with Mexico, and he might have a chance of getting re-elected.
Why does everything have to be so political?
Then keep those comments to yourself
Eh. Something clearly needs to be done, and the concerns aren’t being addressed (and haven’t been for awhile). Congress and the senate haven’t done anything aside from attempt to impeach hunter Biden (from who knows what) or show off his dick.
Doubtful it’s any kind of civil war, but Texas (and other states) is being hit hard by the number of immigrants, and if the federal government can’t (or won’t?) do anything to curb it, makes sense that they will do something on their own.
That's the thing though, they aren't. Things aren't worse than they were, this is a manufactured crisis because Republicans need some kind of tangible policy to lie about to their voters for the upcoming election. Just like the immigrant caravan which disappeared as suddenly as it appeared (as in it never existed) the previous election.
I don't think this is an accurate view of the current border situation, but it's a view that one might have consuming media from a different kind of media bubble than the Fox News kind.
There really is a situation with migrants who cross the river illegally and immediately turn themselves in and claim asylum. This isn't a new situation, but the numbers have gotten worse over the last year.
The migrant caravans, plural, really did and do exist. What tends to happen is they gather into thousands strong mass marches in and around Tapachula, after crossing from Guatemala to Mexico. So these big marches start towards the US in southern Mexico, but they tend to break up and thin out over the 1800 mile journey to Texas.
If anyone could organize a mass foot march over the whole distance, that would be an extremely impressive feat of logistics. But that hasn't happened yet.
Conclusions: this border situation is not completely made up. Many right wing conspiracies going around have some kind of kernel of truth to then.
And some mainstream media outlets (I have this experience with NPR in particular) have started to seemingly impose total blackouts on not just the conspiracy ideas, but also on the little nuggets of true news that get them started.
Yup! Thank you. It’s not as big as it’s being made out to be (obviously people trying to get political points), but it’s still an issue that does need to be addressed, and it is disproportionately effecting some more than others. No one is going to start at civil war over something like this.
Yeah, no. This is still an entirely manufactured crisis. Even if what you're claiming is really happening, it's still being framed as a problem, which it's not.
Our colonialist pearl-clutching over the southern border has got to stop. It's fucked up that you're perpetuating this brand of fascism.
Can you share the numbers you're referencing? What were the numbers like before they got worse, what are they like now?
To obtain asylum through the affirmative asylum process you must be physically present in the United States. You may apply for asylum regardless of how you arrived in the United States or your current immigration status.
https://www.uscis.gov/humanitarian/refugees-and-asylum/asylum/obtaining-asylum-in-the-united-states
I appreciate hearing a differing view from my own here, genuinely.
I listen to NPR frequently and I have heard many segments about the border and especially asylum seekers.
https://www.npr.org/2023/11/12/1212058889/migrants-u-s-southern-border-historic-numbers-why
https://www.npr.org/2023/12/22/1221006083/immigration-border-election-presidential
I see this a lot, "the liberal media doesn't want you to know!" or "why isn't anyone talking about this!" meanwhile everyone including the lefty sources are indeed talking about it.
The problem is, only one party wants to do anything to actually ease the crisis. Republicans are a half step away from suggesting land mines at the border because trying to escape to the land of the free for a better life is illegal, and that apparently should mean death for you.
The federal government is doing things. The lying Anus governor of Texas is pretending they aren't because it gets him good boy points with his mob.
I never understood why Republicans hate immigrants. Low educated labor that is highly religious. And if crimes are committed, these people can fuel the incarceration complex America has as well.
It's red meat for the base. The corporate overlords who fund the republican party love the cheap labor they can exploit, and they love it even more because the republican party 'otherizing' the illegal immigrants gets them all sorts of leverage they can use against said labor, since the populace won't care what happens to them.
Republican voters hate immigrants. It's a target the GOP can point at while knowing the flow of cheap labor will continue from increasing desperation all while they "heroically fight at the border".
Same. Tons of hard working people that do a lot behind the scenes. But South Park probably got it right with ‘they took errr jerbs!’ Jobs they wouldn’t do themselves anyway.
These are all reasons why they actually enjoy immigration. As a hot-button topic, this has paid out endlessly and will continue to because there's no way immigration will be solved peacefully. So they get the fearmongering and political outrage out of it, in addition to cheap labor, and bogeymen to pin rape/violence on as well. They're the perfect target for them to hate, and they love to hate. Nothing gets an old Republican fired up like illegal Mexicans coming here with their guns and drugs and taking our jobs and sending all the money back home and raping our daughters ("well not my daughter, but y'know" 🤠 ) and bringing caravans more of em in their wake