Spyke

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europe

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ELI5 what is wrong with Hungary?

Orban is in my opinion very good at gaslighting both the EU and his domestic supporters. He talks shit about the EU at every possible opportunity, but then when he shows up for Council meetings in Brussels, he'll usually sign up for whatever he's asked that month. Then he goes back to Hungary and immediately tells voters that he gave the EU leadership hell and that he got a great deal for Hungary. This is mostly my opinion, but I think everyone in the EU expects this conduct from Orban, and they just go along with it for the sake of progress.

His voters on the other hand genuinely think that he's a national hero for standing up to the no good, despicable, very bad EU leftist bureaucrats who also just happen to subsidise their economy. I kind of admire his batshit approach to politics, but disagree with everything he says. Basically, he's all bark and no bite. Just ignore whatever mad shit he's spouting and assume he's saying it for the benefit of his deranged supporters and won't follow through on it.

europe

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Six in ten people want UK to re-join the European Union

It could be 90% in favour of rejoining, but it wouldn't make much of a difference. The EU would need to see strong, long term cross-party support in Westminster before they'd consider it. The EU know that otherwise the issue is just going to keep re-emerging in UK politics so long as the Tories are ideologically opposed to the EU. I think the best chance the UK has is if the modern Tory party stopped being relevant electorally, because their membership's views aren't likely to change, and everyone in the EU institutions hates them for the damage their governments have done over the last 7 years.

ukraine

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Russia Has Deployed Its Last Reserve Division To Southern Ukraine. Did A Ukrainian Screw-Up Make That Possible?

This indicates that Ukrainian efforts at attrition warfare have delivered over the summer, and that they're well positioned to start up manoeuvre warfare again.

It's worth saying that these elite Russian forces are about as well-equipped and trained as Ukraine's offensive brigades. There were some fairly well researched reports from last year by the ISW about how these air assault divisions have been getting badly beaten up since the start of the war, and have taken significant losses on multiple occasions against regular Ukrainian troops. Not to write them off completely, but the Ukrainians are perfectly capable of taking on these guys.

ukraine

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Russia’s Wagner troops are back on the battlefield, Ukraine says

“I see nothing special in their return. Wagner is no longer a powerful force. Those who returned are far from being in a good fighting mood, as they know what to expect here,” Cherevatyi said. “Furthermore, they are now under the control of the Defense Ministry.

That's pretty important. It seems like Wagner had an effective command structure that allowed for successful offensive capabilities. The Russian military will just mindlessly march them into Ukraine's meatgrinder.

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What's your Patient Gamer's Unpopular Opinion?

I've stopped advocating for PC gaming after about 15 years of being a PC enthusiast. It's just too expensive these days. I think the Steam Deck is a good entry point, but not everyone wants a handheld console. I can 100% respect anyone who looks at the price of a gaming PC and just picks up a Playstation/Xbox for $500 instead.

games

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Gaming hot takes?

Hideo Kojima's games are bad.

For context, when I was 11 my friend told me that MGS was incredible, so I went to his house to play it. It was fucking tedious. I spent hours shuffling around grey corridors, interspersed with painfully long dialog and cut scenes that were mostly about nothing.

Then, years later I decided to go back to MGS V and give the series another try. I had the exact same reaction to it as the original game. Endless waffle about characters and situations that meant nothing to me, uninspired modern military aesthetics, and boring locations.

They were clearly very well-made games, and I appreciate that people have massive regard for them. I just don't like them at all.

ukraine

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The point of Russia's meat wave tactics

My armchair general take is that Russia is just flinging whatever resources they have left at the Ukrainians. They've lost their professional army, their artillery stockpiles, KA-52s, Wagner. Now all they have left are T-72s, BMPs, and bodies, so they're just hoping for any kind of win with that. It's not working out, and I'm really curious how long it'll be before they run out of soviet era armour and suicidal idiots, and what will happen next if they do.

Western media has become completely defeatist about Ukraine's prospects because Russia is still able to project strength. I honestly think that these tactics are a sign of desperation, and that things could start to fall apart quite suddenly for Russia. If for example, the US and EU pass more aid for Ukraine in early 2024, and Russia runs low on materiel, then it's not difficult to imagine. I'm hoping that the new ATACMS variant will knock out the Crimean bridge soon, and that a surprise offensive across the Dnieper could isolate Crimea and create a strategic disaster for Russia.

People who understand Putin say that he's a gambler, not a strategic genius. He's made so many bad bets since 2021, and I'm starting to hope that this latest roll of the dice using meat wave attacks could be the last time he's able to double down without serious consequences.

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What was the game you were the most patient for?

The Witcher 3. I'd been following its development since the Witcher 2, and I loved the games and the books. After 5 years of waiting I knew that it wasn't likely to live up to my expectations, so I prepared myself for disappointment.

Then it came out, and it was the best RPG I'd played. Some of the Novigrad story lines went on for too long, but that was my only issue with it. I've 100% it three times. Best €30 I ever spent. The DLC was somehow even better than the base game. I have no idea how CDPR managed it.