Trump is not as popular as he was in 2016, when he promised to drain the swamp, build the wall, and lock Hillary up. He still has many deluded supporters, but a significant percentage took a look around when he left office and realized... none of those things actually happened. He never had a plan to fix Washington. He didn't pardon the Jan. 6th rioters on his way out the door. There was no secret legal trick to reinstate him as President when Biden was inaugurated. JFK Jr. didn't come back from the dead and anoint him as the messiah. I definitely think he would get fewer votes in 2024 than he did in 2020, because his utter failure to live up to those promises did damage his reputation to a measurable degree.
That being said, I'm not willing to take a risk on another Trump vs. Biden contest. If the reports are accurate, the Dept. of Justice has a recording of Trump admitting that he took classified material to Mar-A-Lago, and knew he couldn't simply declare them de-classified. That's a massive cherry on top of a layer cake of evidence turned over to DoJ by Congress. Trump needs to be indicted, convicted, and barred from holding public office as expeditiously as possible, so we never have to risk seeing that traitor in the White House ever again.