Spyke
lemmy.world

"Mercenaries and auxiliaries are useless and dangerous; and if one holds his state based on these arms, he will stand neither firm nor safe."

Niccolo Machiavelli - The Prince

120

"Windows are dangerous. Also, radioactive umbrellas" - zeppo, a Lemmy Member

28
mookulatorreply
lemmy.world

Can you explain the significance of these buildings?

Are they the head offices of those departments, or the offices that are in that city?

How powerful are these departments?

20
kbin.social

Rostov is the admin centre of Rostov Oblast (state capital city). I would assume the main offices are in Moscow and these are the regional headquarters.

So while it is big if they have taken them it is not as big as if they had done so in Moscow.

29
deafboyreply
lemmy.world

Nobody knew what was going on in 1968 czechoslovakia as well, when the russians came with the tanks. I don't really wish them any harm, but I'm glad they can experience the same confusion now. May this experience serve as a warning.

7

I doubt the people in Rostov are the ones who were in Czechoslovakia in 1968.

5
yiffit.net

Holly shit this has been picked up by the BBC.

Remember, it doesn't matter if they succeed or not. The fact it has happened will terrify Putin.

80
Arbiterreply
lemmy.world

I feel like this might be on behalf of Putin.

Wagner has been pretty careful to call out everyone but Putin.

Feels like setting the stage for a claim that the war was orchestrated by rogue elements in the Russian military, giving an out to tuck tail and run and move toward easing sanctions.

60
Ertebollereply
kbin.social

Nah, this feels more like an "evil counsellors" situation - you don't want to take on the king directly, so you instead give him an out by saying that he's OK but he's been given bad advice. Which also means if you do take over you can keep him around as a figurehead who now listens to better advisers like yourself.

43

True, it’ll be interesting to see what the hell happened once the dust settles.

14
sudneoreply
lemmy.world

Judging from the address to the nation, this doesn't seem the case now.

The situation is still very confused.

21
lemmy.world

This is what I'm worried about. I hope they all tear themselves to pieces, but if Putin gets out scot free, I'll be disappointed

19

I mean i hear what you're saying, but if it means less death and destruction for innocent Ukrainians then I'm all for letting Putin live.

17

I feel like this might be on behalf of Putin.

Wagner has been pretty careful to call out everyone but Putin.

Feels like setting the stage for a claim that the war was orchestrated by rogue elements in the Russian military, giving an out to tuck tail and run and move toward easing sanctions.

0
Auxreply
lemmy.world

It won't terrify Putin. It all goes according to the plan. Different forces are fighting between themselves to show who's more loyal to Putin, those who are not loyal enough are either falling out of windows or being killed on the battlefield. And those who are loyal are getting ludicrously rich. The amount of billionaires in Russia has increased fivefold during the first year of the war.

Army generals got too corrupt and too complacent since their success in Crimea in 2014, this war is a tool to put them into place and Prigozhin talks a lot so that Putin can put generals' noses into their shit to teach them a lesson or two while the public fully supports this. Prigozhin gets his piece of the pie in the process.

-10
Auxreply
lemmy.world

Yes, I misread, shame on me. Still, the number has increased noticeably. All while multiple oligarchs jumped out of the window.

1

Yes, this is way too open. To me this looks like turkey 2016 "coup"

1
lemmy.world

This is not a "war", it is a "special military operation".

This is not a "coup", it is a "march for justice".

72

Everyone tries to control the narrative, this is completely normal. Anti-terrorist operation, peacekeeping mission, special military operation, march for X. I don't remember someone who just said "yep, we are invading X".

In this case both Prigozhin and Putin (or the establishment) are trying to control the narrative to gather support from "patriots". Saying you are making a coup sounds antigonizing, while saying you are marching for justice, because it's the government who has betrayed the people does not.

17
lemmy.world

I would like to submit "Putin panics and nukes his own people to stop the advance" for my Bingo card.

52
jcit878reply
lemmy.world

the latest resolution from NATO didnt say Russia cant nuke itself...

15

Any nuke west of the Urals is likely to provoke radiation that reaches NATO, and nukes east of the Urals would be, uh, insignificant most likely.

11
lemmy.world

Launching a nuke would have to be the dumbest thing Putin could do. A huge chunk of NATO must already be salivating at the internal chaos.

I bet Polish social media is on fire right now.

9

They must be feeling a bit like Jerry Falwell Jr. right now - they have to sit there and watch someone else do the fucking, but are also enjoying it.

4

More like shitting themselves.

Think of all the dirty bombs that could end up on the black market in the event of a Russian collapse.

2
lemmy.world

I welcome russian infighting. Hope it makes it easier for Ukraine to retake Crimea.

51

All the Nazi's who were "expelled" out of Azov/various militias could join up with Wagner and then they all take Ukraine for themselves.

-107
lemmy.ml

Holy shit.

Things are getting real real.

44

It’s just a special military coup operation, nothing more to see.

24
lemmy.world

my mind is so blown. i didn’t have wagner turning against russia on my bingo card

40
lemmy.world

I mean Prigozin has been advertising his eventual turning against Putin for a while, but I didn't think it would happen as a full on military coup

23
Gorbachofreply
lemmy.world

My personal theory is that he never intended it to get this far (previously he never called out Putin directly), but a failed assassination attempt made him decided he has no choice.

12
Double_Areply
lemmy.world

I kinda had it on it when Prigozhin started releasing videos of him acting as a reasonable person to gain popular support.

13

My father who is Russian has been talking about Wagner turning on Russia for the past 2 months. Dogs of war. So my bingo card has been stamped.

10
lemmy.world

I didn't either, but history has plenty of examples of mercenary armies turning against their employers.

4

is it normally like this? for something akin to personal politics, and not missed payment or something?

1
lemmy.world

If Kiev has been saving something up for a special occasion, this occasion is starting to look pretty special.

40

I think this is a good time to continue what they've been doing, interfering with Russian logistics and pressing forward on the front lines.

They could make an attack on Russian territory (e.g. drone strikes against airbases, oilfields, bridges, or other suitable targets), but right now might be the right time to hold off on anything that might distract Russia and Wagner from fighting with each other. Nothing unifies squabbling factions quite like a serious external threat.

I wouldn't be surprised, though, if Ukraine ops to antagonize Russia as much as they can, while leaving Wagner mostly alone. That would also be a sensible strategy.

16
Zambonimanreply
lemmy.ca

They didn't switch sides. They created a third side. A Mêlée à Trois.

54

To be honest I thought Wagner and also the Chechen commanded forces would cause chaos in Russia after the war - Putin unleashed the genies from their bottles in his desperation. Both see themselves as successors to Putin should he fall, and civil war was on the cards but more likely a conflict between Wagner and the Chechen forces of some form. I agree - moving DURING the war with Ukraine - that is totally unexpected!

But they've not switched sides tbf - this seems to be the first steps in a civil war. And it shows just how broken Russia is. The question is, will Wagner step back from the precipice after exacting some sort of price out of the Russian state? Or is this a battle for survival and so unstoppable.

The really really worrying this is when things get unpredictable like this, there is no telling how things could escalate further. Look at WW1 - the death of Franz Ferdinand helped unleash chaos in a way no one could have forseen.

18

Mercs are always on their own side first and foremost.

Purchased loyalty always has an expiry date, usually about 6 hours after the last payment clears.

They are on the side that pays them or that they see the most profit from.

16
lemmy.world

Generally, I don't like to gloat, but I did call that one ~ June 5th over on Reddit (https://www.reddit.com/r/france/comments/140qkwu/destructions_incursions_%C3%A9vacuations_dans_la/jmyndp3/?context=3; in French because it was on r/France).

It actually is much worse than it seems - I did a write up over on Mastodon to explain why and how (https://mastodon.social/@andrei_chiffa/110599724720727202). The TLDR is that cities taken by Wagner mercs will be hard to retake without leveling, all internal protection troops are either tied or were lost in Ukraine, and mercs themselves have nothing to loose and all the revenge to take.

36

Tu avais raison.

It's very strange how things are going right now. The fact that they are quite effortlessly moving hundreds of kilometers through Russian territory is quite telling.

16

More evidence as to why you don’t hire mercenaries. They are only loyal to the money. I hope the US is watching with their love of PMC’s.

35

Especially if you send the mercenaries on a nonsense mission to die a pointless death...

17

Especially when you then allow that mercenary group to release and recruit 30,000 prisoners

11
lemmy.world

25,000 troops marching on Moscow. How many does the Kremlin have not already in Ukraine?

34
lemmy.world

How many do they have not in Ukraine... Who are also willing to kill fellow Russians? If the average Russian military sentiment is, "Eh, let them through" this could be huge.

Plus a lot of the "Royal Guard" may be well-connected rich kids who are even less inclined to fight.

Way too soon to know for sure, but. 🍿

30

People are tired of this war. Putin wanted to secure food reserves and have an open access sea port for his military; however he wasn't honest as to his reasons why; understandably so. Given this the Russian public doesn't see the actual geopolitical value of the conflict. This was inevitable. If Russia couldn't play nice with the rest of the world as their money mostly comes from oil and gas; which we are moving away from. Let them pay for their crimes.

30
Yoz
lemmy.world

Can someone please explain what's going on ? I am out of the loop. I know Wagner was fighting for Russia but what happened now?

28
lemmy.world

Everyone in Wagner was about to be conscripted into the regular Russian Army as the latest in an ongoing power struggle between Wagner's boss and the Russian MoD. So to avoid losing his private army, the boss has stepped up the power struggle to an attempted coup, basically.

60
lemmy.world

The coup will be crushed, but it will weaken the Russian military even more and they lose their (now former) elite forces

2
lemmy.world

Who's going to crush them? The Russian military? They are going to join them.

5
lemmy.world

I know next to nothing about whats going on but crushed appears harsh. They're marching through to Moscow unfettered.

5
lemmy.world

My money isn't on the Russian Army being able to "crush" anything tougher than a chicken egg at this point.

4

Having Russia and its nukes controlled by a mercenary doesn't seem like much of a win, tbh. Not to say Putin's better, but I see more of a lose-lose, myself.

1
lemmy.world

The head of Wagner was unhappy with Russian military leaders and thought he'd take matters into his own hands as Putin was going to support him. Putin did not. Now there are 10,000 men heading to Moscow.

36
lemmy.world

While it’s always great to watch enemies turning against each other (Boebert vs MTG!), let‘s not forget that Putin is a mad man with his finger on a nuclear button.

I wish the best for the people living there who will suffer the consequences of a dictator who gets pushed into a corner.

23

If there's one thing I've learned from my history classes it's that power vacuums (or even perceived power vacuums) and the ensuing instability always end well for everyone involved....

/s

20

This became a possibility the moment Prigo started making threats towards government officials. As soon as that happened, and Russia did not recall and disband the group, a rebellion became an eventuality (what mercenary is going to accept execution from a state he is propping up).

I doubt it'll be successful, but it is a huge blow to Russia.

16
Nivekkreply
kbin.social

What he's been saying is that the Russian Ministry of Defense has been lying to Putin. So I'd say this is Wagner and Putin working together to manufacture a face-saving pretext to leave Ukraine.

Edit: I see this morning that Putin is denouncing Prigozhin so, maybe not!

27
kbin.social

Same, though I epxect this to be more of a purge of - probably - the actual resistance within the army. Just like what Russia and others have been doing for centuries. Prigozhin already said in his speech he will return to the front once his cleanup is done. Who would do that unless they knew full well there were no consequences to be feared? And why would there be no consequences for something like this?

9

a rocket from behind started this, why would he not fear another? unless its scripted like you say.

6

Very intriguing concept! If true it would be the first savvy thing Putin has done in a long while. Even though it would help Putin, it would help the Ukrainians much more, so I hope it's true!

3
pawb.social

The rebellion has started. Let's hope they win. Wagner group aren't great people, but Putin is worse for giving the orders and calling the shots against so many innocent lives.

15
Firipureply
lemmy.world

As bad as Putin is, I'm not sure Wagner would be better. They're even worse thugs than Putin :(

13

Yeah, I wanted Putin to go, but this might be a "be careful what you wish for" thing.
They should just be a nice mixed economy low corruption actual democracy (a super scandi) and the russian people free and happy goddamit.

8

If they would merely keep Rostov, a city with one million citizens, this would already be an enormous problem for Russia. But the Wagner group is going all-out, and I strongly doubt whether they'll be able to oust the Russian government.

13
awilddildoreply
lemmy.world

The Wagner Group, is a Russian paramilitary organization. It is seen as a private military company (PMC), a network of mercenaries, or a de facto private army of Russian President Vladimir Putin's former close ally Yevgeny Prigozhin.

The group operates beyond the law in Russia, where private military companies are officially forbidden. Because it operates in support of Russian interests, it receives equipment from the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) and uses MoD installations for training, the Wagner Group is said to be a de facto unit of the MoD or Russia's military intelligence agency, the GRU.

While the Wagner Group itself is not ideologically driven, various elements of Wagner have been linked to neo-Nazism and far-right extremism.

46
fuboreply
lemmy.world

While the Wagner Group itself is not ideologically driven, various elements of Wagner have been linked to neo-Nazism and far-right extremism.

It's literally named for Hitler's favorite composer.

39
ImFresh3xreply
sh.itjust.works

Here’s a pic of the founder Dmitry Utkin whose call sign is Wagner. He can be seen with nazi eagle, swastika, SS Schutzstaffel. This isn’t just runic imagery. He chose that call sign and the name for his company because he is a fan of the 3rd reich. And it was Adolf Hitlers favorite composer. Not just actual nazis. But an actual nazi leader. Leading a war for conquest and nazi glory.

24

Utkin hasn't been really relevant for Wagner in recent years and is definitely not leading it. While their involvement in Ukraine might be for glory, their usual interests are monetary, their control over various oil fields, lumber, and gold mines in Syria, CAR, Mali providing a steady sanction-proof revenue stream. They also further the Russian's state geopolitical interests while maintaining plausible deniability.

They are nationalistic, opportunistic whatever, but not "Leading a war for conquest and nazi glory.".

They do have neo-nazis/ultranationalists elements of course though, especially Rusish Group.

6

Yeah, this is bad guy v bad guy.

Hopefully Ukraine capitalizes, there has already been additional movement n of Bakmuht supposedly. Tons of disinfo everywhere right now but pic should become clearer as time passes.

19
lemmy.world

If true, this is a major setback for Putin.

I don't think this little rebellion has a chance to overthrow Putin. Maybe if all of Wagner rebelled?

8
YuYuHunterreply
lemmy.world

little rebellion

They already control a city with one million inhabitants, with one of the five military headquarters of the Russian military. I wouldn't call this a "small rebellion" yet.

29
Clbullreply
lemmy.world

They're a 50000-person-strong PMC. No way can they take on the full might of the Russian military unless you see huge swathes of the military join their rebellion.

11
The_Petereply
lemmy.world

Which they will promptly forget about as soon as they get their way and then in 20 years everyone will wonder where the war lords came from.

13

At this point I'd not be surprised. I don't expect it, but it wouldn't shock me.

4

in the movie Crimson Tide, the issue was the radical (cant remember his name) was sweeping to power as he won the 'hearts and minds' of the russian miliary. Now thats fiction set in post cold war russia, but I can definitely see the similarities. I wouldnt be surprised if Wagner are joined by brigades sent to 'stop' them

4

I wonder if Flight of the Valkyries plays wherever the Wagner Group goes. (For at least two reasons.)

7

Somewhat unexpected (at least for me). I don't expect much from this, but it may be the start of more general dissatisfaction in Russia.

4