Turns out Generative AI was a scam
https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/turns-out-generative-ai-was-a-scamOpen linkView original on lemmy.bestiver.seSyndicated from the fediverse. Read and engage on the original instance.
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https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/turns-out-generative-ai-was-a-scamOpen linkView original on lemmy.bestiver.se
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Absolutely... Thank you, from the very depths of my heart and soul... dear Tom Gracey, programmer, artist... for the marvel you do... for the wisest attitude, for the belief in in human... in effort... in art...
Usually only the last statement is true.
I think there is quite a bit more subtlety than that.
Yes, just asking an LLM, even the latest versions, to write some code goes from “wow, that’s pretty good” to “eh, not great but ok for something I’m going to use once and then not care about” to “fucking terrible” as the size goes up. And all the agents in the world don’t really make it better.
But… there are a few use cases that I have found interesting.
I like to add:
as well when I’m using it to help me learn a new language.
Just ask those people to read engrish, they'll stand a chance of understanding the issue. It's put together with clues of how it works, and can copypaste pieces, but without the knowledge to string it all together cohesively. Maybe not the best example, but coding is a language like English is a language, and we take a lot of our knowledge for granted when it comes to our intimate relationship with language.
Thank you... When I read "engrish"... my heart skipped a beat...
This assumes you never review it, meaning it’s at best an argument against vibe coding. It’s not an argument against using LLMs for coding in general.
Additionally, I’ve been writing software for a living for almost 30 years, and I could say the exact same thing about a lot of human generated code I’ve reviewed during that time. I don’t even know how often I’ve explained basic stuff like “security goes in the backend, not in the frontend” to humans.
I certainly do code and if I don’t understand what the LLM outputs it doesn’t go in the project.
I’m a software engineer, I can’t judge LLMs in most other domains. I also don’t think there are no problems. A tool doesn’t have to be 100% problem free to be useful as long as you recognize the limitations.
I don’t see a problem with this. The post even mentions pulling code from stackoverflow, which is the same. But nobody ever argued that it has no uses in coding because you still have to read the code.
Honestly at this point any article just flat out dismissing LLMs for coding only reads to me like the author isn’t even trying to stay up to date. Which is understandable if they don’t like AI but makes posting about it a bit pointless.
A year ago I would had a similar opinion as the author but in the last 3-4 months specifically, it feels like AI based tools made a huge leap. I went from using short snippets for learning to letting AI implement entire features and being actually happy with the result.
There is however still a pretty big difference between what it produces for common problems vs. what it produces for specialized difficult ones. It’s also inherently better at some languages than others based on the availability of up-to-date training material. So you need some amount of breadth in your projects to accurately judge it.
If you only try some AI service in free mode on one thing every month, for example, you’ll just have this very polarized opinion that’s either “AI is useless” or “AI can do everything”, but you won’t have a good idea of what it can and can’t do.
I've seen this claim made basically weekly for the last couple of years, if we're having "generational leaps" monthly then these LLMs would actually be capable of doing what people claim they can.
It’s just my experience as someone who was pretty much forced to use AI for coding by my employer for the last few years. For the longest time it was completely useless. And then it suddenly wasn’t. I’m sure you’ll keep hearing this kind of story though, because people have different requirements and AI assisted coding or even agents don’t have to start working for everybody at the same time.
Too many people assume, that since genAI is a machine, it'll never make any mistakes.
"Additionally, I’ve been writing software for a living for almost 30 years, and I could say the exact same thing about a lot of human generated code I’ve reviewed during that time. I don’t even know how often I’ve explained basic stuff like “security goes in the backend, not in the frontend” to humans."
This is the part I find so funny, as if all humans, hell all DEVS are actually capable of writing perfect code every time. Edit: (Reread and realized I didn't phrase this right) Whereas a normal-lower end dev wouldnt be able to write that program in less time than an LLM could whip up a similarly buggy program.
Like do y'all (expert coders who write things like this article) interact with software outside of what you actually write? I've literally never worked with a larger program that didn't have some kind of bug or strange behavior, it's just how it goes.
I do think it's an interesting dynamic we are seeing play out, I've been wanting to learn and get better at code and this is simultaneously a great time to learn and a horrible time to learn lmao.
Maybe if you're only working with languages and features that are well documented and have a lot of examples out there. I've been trying to use LLM coding to assist me with a process automation at work, and the results are a couple steps up from dog vomit more often than not.
AI code assistants aren't making big strides, you're likely just seeing them refine common scenarios to points where it becomes very usable for your specific use cases.
Sure. How much the language or features change is also important. For example Claude can build entire iPhone apps in Swift but you bet they’re going to be full of warnings about things that are illegal now and you bet if there’s any concurrency stuff it’s going to be a wild mix of everything async that ever existed in Swift. It makes sense too because LLMs are trained on code that’s, on average, outdated.
But what it’s good at and what it’s not good at is just part of what you need to know when using AI, just like with any other tool. I have projects too where it can at best replace google, so I don’t try to make it implement those by itself.
ultra copium.jpg
soul.yml for some of these people lol
what works with my normie "what's the big deal" is the following analogy:
this is akin to cleaning out your snowed-in driveway with a twin-engine afterburner from an F14 Tomcat - holy shit, it actually cleaned the thing! saved me a buncha time! and it cost pennies!
yeah, but:
And sometimes it doesn't actually remove the snow.
It actually doesn't remove the snow, which I think makes it a PERFECT analogy since you've wasted a shit ton of energy on the flashy,expensive, idea instead of just doing what actually works.
Just to make a counterpoint. Yes, it will! https://youtube.com/shorts/hlYtx4Xe7r0
Do you not understand how insane jet engines are?
I read it as melting snow, not just getting it off the drive way. But just blasting the snow from your driveway onto to street won't be a ton of help either since that still needs to get plowed.
hey thats why they are pedalling it to india to have the datacenters, india is already cooking and MODI wants to give tax holidays.
What are tax holidays?
Effectively the government paying you to move there by allowing you to not pay any taxes. So if your company is paying $2m/yr in taxes, you're being paid $2m+ to move your operations. You'll lose some of that to construction costs, but you'll likely more than make that up by paying (comparatively to previous employees) slave wages to locals.
It's a thing to encourage foreign investors.
Honestly, if the Modi govt. is still furthering that strategy, I think that they are out of good ideas and should hand over to another.
IDK about that.
He seemed pretty popular around the previous election.
NO WAY /sarcasm
Odd, no matter how many people keep insisting it's a scam and it doesn't work, it nevertheless keeps on working when I use it.
Maybe they're not using it right.
"doesn't work" doesn't mean the AI literally does not produce any output or do anything, it means it has so many flaws it's just a fundamentally bad technology to be using.
And don't worry, I've got sources.
LLMs still routinely hallucinate, and even implementations being used by AI safety researchers can't help but automatically wipe email inboxes without permission. They atrophy your brain the longer you use them, cause both general dependency and emotional dependency, as well as deskill you at your job, they produce content favored worse by both humans and the AI models searching for trustworthy sources, and to top it all off, scaling laws are already failing to improve AI models enough to fix these problems, companies aren't seeing returns, the economy gained essentially nothing from AI investment, usage, and growth, and public perception by the people actually affected most by AI is only getting worse while the people financially incentivized to keep building it say it's going to get better, all while datacenters accelerate global warming and LLMs keep killing people.
I don't know about you, but I'd rather not support a technology that makes you get fundamentally worse at most cognitive tasks, damages the planet, burns money that could otherwise go to something more valuable, all while randomly killing mentally vulnerable people.
that’s odd i use it daily and it works fine
The doctors who used it daily said it worked fine, and it did. Then those doctors became 20% less capable at identifying tumors in their patients.
The Meta AI security researcher literally said, and I quote: "It’s been working well with my non-important email very well so far and gained my trust on email tasks" when asked why she'd give it access to her primary email, where it subsequently started trashing her whole inbox.
All of the participants in the cognitive debt paper's research had the AI actually produce the results they were looking for, but they all became less capable mentally as a result.
And when a woman in South Korea killed two men using advice given to her by ChatGPT, it worked fine for her, didn't it?
That's not to say your use of AI makes you a murderer. Far from it. But we have quite well documented evidence of LLMs simply making people dumber. You are not an exception to that, unless your brain biologically operates entirely differently from everyone else's.
When you use neurons less, the connections become weaker, and less new connections get made. When you offload work to something else, like an LLM, you stop training your brain to get better, and you let parts of it slowly die.
Using AI is like using a hydraulic robot to bench press for you. You're going to move the weights, but your muscle mass ain't growing.
The more you outsource the very function of thinking to a chatbot, the more reliant your brain will become on that chatbot to think as well as it used to, and when that chatbot regularly hallucinates faulty answers and logic, ignores best practices, inefficiently implements solutions, and gets things wrong, your brain is not improving as a result of that.
This doesn't mean you should never use AI. I use it to automatically clean up the transcriptions of my voice notes sometimes, and all that does is save me time from correcting the output of the text I just spoke. It's genuinely helpful, and doesn't meaningfully deskill me in any way. But if I used it to try and do everything for me, not only would it have made a ton of mistakes, but I'd then be even less capable of fixing them.
But still, it does deskill you at that task, lest we forget. So if that was a meaningful task at which you wanted to stay adept, you would lose that meaningful skill. AI consistently deskills us at everything we ask it to do instead of doing it ourselves. Anything we are not doing, we are getting worse at doing.
Nobody needs to hear about your ai girlfriend.
I have a theory that supporters of genAI or LLMs are lonely angry neets who just want a sense of control in their radically tumultuous lives.
care to weigh in on my theory of when AI started to help out with this moment in your life?
there’s like 100 million+ users of ai, that’s a lot of neets
"Why are they pushing AI? Nobody wants this!" Meanwhile chatgpt.com is the fifth-most-visited website in the world.
But I suppose people can just wrap themselves in a social media bubble where anyone who say something positive about AI gets downvoted through the floor, and then their view of the world gets curated to look a bit more like how they want it to be.
There's a big difference between having a website that you can choose to engage with and having LLMs jammed into your device's operating system or programming IDE that make you jump through hoops just to disable them (or your email and then be told your emails are going to be used in training and if you don't want that you have to turn off all the smart features, including the ones that aren't LLM-based).
There would be certain use cases I'd be open to, but at least give me a choice when deploying it out as to whether it's on or off, what it has access to and make it easy to change those settings.
Right. The website that people choose to engage with shows that people are choosing to engage with AI without being forced to. It shows that the demand for AI is organic and real. Lots of people want to use AI.
Of course they do. People want comfort and AI as it is marketed is the ultimate comfort. Doesn't change the harm it does at all, but lots of people are eager to dismiss the harm as long as their comfort is assured.
yeah exactly, I also love their 'it produces NOTHING but GARBAGE', as if I can't see exactly what it's producing every time I make a query which I do multiple times a day 🤯
Yeah, I have deep reservations about the various AI companies, the environmental impacts of the industry, and many of the other issues that people are bringing up here. And, I have still found a few very practical uses.
My partner was fighting with their insurance company about getting reimbursed for several thousand dollars of medical expenses. After a couple of rounds of rejections I had them send me the paperwork, insurance information, and rejection letters and then asked ChatGPT what we should say to get them to reimburse us. It came up with a letter that had the right legal mumbo jumbo to convince the insurance company to agree and pay us. Yes, I could have hired a lawyer, but the legal fees would have eaten up most of the money. And I guess I could have gone to law school, gotten a specialization in insurance law, and figured it out myself. But that also would have cost more time and money.
I still think “AI” is overhyped and has a lot of ethical issues, but there are also some very practical uses.
You're right, it's just mostly garbage output. I eventually get to a moderately usable answer a lot of the time, but more often than not I have to constantly tweak the prompt or tell it to follow the goddamned system prompts I give it, and it still feeds me obvious bullshit on 1/4-1/2 of the responses.
Maybe you're working in a common area where the AI doesn't have to work hard to give you good outputs, but the AI is trash for the tasks I give it.
the overwhelming majority of chatbot users run on average about 5 prompts per week, or less than one prompt per day, according to OpenAI’s own usage stats.
Okay. Not sure the relevance, though. They're not forced to use it, they choose to go to that site and write those prompts because they want to.
the overwhelming majority of chatbot users run on average about 5 prompts per week, or less than one prompt per day, according to OpenAI's own usage stats.
thanks for the random stat! 👍
You're not a detail orientated person, are you?
😂
Thanks for being the example for us