Risk of large asteroid striking Earth falls to 1.5%
Summary
NASA has lowered the estimated risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 striking Earth in December 2032 to 1.5%, down from 3.1% a day earlier. The European Space Agency's (ESA) estimate stands at 1.38%.
The asteroid, 40-90 meters wide, could cause significant city-level destruction but not a global catastrophe.
The projected impact corridor spans the Pacific, South America, Africa, and South Asia.
NASA also estimates a 0.8% chance of the asteroid hitting the Moon.
https://www.dw.com/en/risk-of-large-asteroid-striking-earth-falls-to-15/a-71691599Open linkView original on lemmy.world155
Comments62
So you're tell me there's a chance?
Relevant username
I'm a Powerball man...
Those are great odds!
Sure hope so!
What do we need to get this to %100?
It's probably made up of dense materials like iron. Let's pile all the earth's magnets at the White House!
I'll give mine, as long as someone helps with the shipping!
As someone who's played MMOs, 1.5% chance is actually pretty high.
As someone who's played XCom, a 1.5% chance of a bad thing (questionable) means it's gonna critically hit
As someone who played Ragnarok Online extensively, 1.5% for a single monster kill means I will never find that item.
Not to mention cards’ .01% drop rate ugh
https://static.wikia.nocookie.net/balatrogame/images/5/57/Tarot_The_Wheel_of_Fortune.png/revision/latest?cb=20230925220831
I would sleep like a baby if it had these odds, lol.
Magicians have calculated that million-to-one chances crop up nine times out of ten.
Keep looking, there's got to be something out there that can hit us!
I'm not sure if you saw the recent news but we have a possible new mummy curse, never give up hope
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5ym30v356po
Yeah, but mummies can be friendly.. asteroids are a sure thing. Just ask the dinosaurs.
"Hey, little guy, is an asteroid gonna kill us all?"
Cluck cluck!
I haven't seen that. That's a new one. Lets go!
There's always a chance that we can hit by a gamma-ray burst.
Everyone hoping there's still a chance, you need to remember... this is only a city-killer asteroid.
We need to hope for a much bigger asteroid.
As long as it falls on the right city, it would do the entire world a massive, once in 500 years favor.
Unfortunately North America doesn't fall under the possible impact zone
More proof that there's no god.
We have a few years to improve our asteroid deflection capabilities to change that
If it does, I think a bunch of new religions are going to pop up.
Washington D.C. I hope.
Would have been funny if it hit Buenos aires
If the alien movies serve us correctly, this is luckily going to hit the USA; possibly Washington DC directly.
If it hit the middle of the ocean, it could be cool and nothing else.
I hope it's not headed for Buenos Aires, but I'm ready to do my part.
Reminder that the asteroid is only large enough to destroy a city and, even given the rare chance of it hitting Earth, in all likelihood would land in the ocean and cause no damage. It's not a doomsday asteroid
imagine if it falls and perfectly annihilates the trump administration though
Unfortunately, Washington is outside of the possible impact zone. (Well, Washington in Brazil is inside, but it's not about that one.)
DART successfully moved an astroid that was probably way bigger!
Here you simulate some of the effects. Pretty fun to drop an asteroid on some asshat from my youth's house. Less fun when it wiped out my entire city and evaporated my parents. Welp.. can't have it all I guess. https://neal.fun/asteroid-launcher/
Can we please not post daily updates? This is still 7 years away
Don’t look up.
I am down to have monthly updates for the next few years, weekly updates through 2031, and daily updates throughout 2032
I just feel like if we do daily updates for the next 7 years when it's in all likelihood going to miss us, we'll be too complacent when an asteroid does have an impact trajectory
Please
🙏🙏🙏
Just give us the confidence interval and stop updating. We will know better in January 2029 once it has passed by and been tugged by our gravity and the moons.
Bets on it being totally ignored by the world if it turns out to be aimed at Africa?
Africa actually does seem to be the most likely impact if it were to hit. The predicted impact would be along the equator.
Giant Meteor for Earth President 2032!
Why wait? The best time would have been the dawn of civilization. The second best time is now.
Dontgivemehope.meme
Damn. The bugs need to up their accuracy
I love how they make it seem like some insider expertise versus knowing basics of how percentages work.
I mean, without knowing what the number represents, it's not obvious why it goes up and then suddenly drops like this.
They basically predict a cross-section of places it could go through, which shrinks with improved data. If the Earth is still inside, that makes it's share go up. Eventually, it hits an edge and the share drops to zero suddenly
Boourns!
There is this fun toy see/calculate the potential effect of any asteroid collision: https://neal.fun/asteroid-launcher/
If it hits any city, that is wiped out. If it hit anything else, chances are damages are moderate.
Damn
Is this the new seven minutes to midnight? We're 1.5% to asteroid.
I feel like hitting the moon could fuck us up even worse long term, with effects on the ocean?
Much much much much larger objects have hit the moon in the past
Well we'd lose the tides, which would devastate ocean life. We'd lose moonlight, which would devastate nocturnal animals. The axial tilt would change, so seasons would become more even, devastating plants that rely on seasonal cycles, or become more extreme, devastating everything.
The book Seveneves explores this scenario, but is mostly about how humanity moves to space to survive.
Could it even completely obliterate the moon? Just not being tidally locked would be awful, but completely changing its trajectory/orbit and probably fuck up our atmosphere with debris seems more likely
It's probably not big enough to shatter the moon, but enough to at least alter its orbit. I'm not enough of an astrophysicist to say how much. I haven't looked up the forces involved, so I can't even give a ballpark estimate.
It technically would alter the moons orbit, but not by a lot. This asteroid would impact with roughly the energy of a nuclear bomb, which sounds like a lot, but on the scale of our moon it's negligible.
A rough estimation given my limited understanding of physics is that to change the moon's orbit by 1 m/s, you would need to impart something like 10²² joules of energy into it. Wikipedia says that if this asteroid hits the moon, the impact energy will be around 10¹⁶ joules. I don't know how much you know about exponents, but 10¹⁶ is approximately 0% of the way to 10²², and that's just change of 1 m/s
Of course, someone who actually understands physics is free to correct me if I'm wrong
The moon would shrug that rock off without noticing. Any changes in measurements (mass, velocity, etc.) would be minuscule.
Here's the upside: new species will evolve that can take better advantage of the new environment.