2024 Presidential Election Megapost!
Edit 12:11 PM 11/6 Pacific
Kentucky (8), Indiana (11), West Virginia (4), Florida (30), South Carolina (9), Tennessee (11), Alabama (9), Mississippi (6), Oklahoma (7), Arkansas (6), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), Nebraska (4*), Wyoming (3), Louisiana (8), Texas (40), Ohio (17), Missouri (10), Montana (4), Utah (6), Idaho (4), Iowa (6), Kansas (6), North Carolina (BG-16), Georgia (BG-16), Pennsylvanya (BG-19), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (15), Maine (1*), Alaska (3), Arizona (11) and Nevada (6) called for Trump.
Vermont (3), Connecticut (7), District of Columbia (3), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Rhode Island (4), Delaware (3), Illinois (19), New Jersey (14), New York (28), Colorado (10), California (54), Washington (12), Oregon (8), Virginia (13), Hawaii (4), New Mexico (5), New Hampshire (4), Minnesota (10), Nebraska (1*), Maine (3*) for Harris.
2 counties in PA have extended voting hours due to voting machine problems. 9:30 PM in one, 10:00 PM in the other.
Multiple precincts in Georgia have extended hours due to bomb threats.
Edit 03:09 PM Pacific Harris wins Guam.
This thread is for the Presidential election, my plan is to start marking wins as soon as they are called, sorted by time zone.
Some states are going to take longer than others. Polls generally close at 8 PM local time, but they can't start counting early/mail in votes until after the polls close.
Wisconsin in particular has an interesting system where ballots are collected by MUNICIPALITY, not precinct, they have over 1,800 ballot counting locations and don't report until ALL 1,800 are in.
https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2024/10/22/wisconsin-voters-election-milwaukee-security-denier
Currently 226 EC votes from Blue States:
4+19+10+7+3+3+4+10+11 +4+14+28+4+3+13+54+12 +10+5+8+6
NC called for Trump. -16 here, +16 to Trump.
GA called for Trump. -16 here, +16 to Trump.
PA called for Trump. -19 here, +19 to Trump.
AZ and NV both called for Trump, +11, +6
Which leaves 312 EC votes in Red States.
9+6+6+6+8+6+10+5+3+7 +3+40+30+11+8+17+9+11+4+3+4+4+3+16+16+19+11+6
270 to Win.
Online map here!
MSNBC just called Pennsylvania for Trump. Good night everybody!
I am extremely troubled for the future of America. Not because of the current election results; but that this many Americans think Trump was and will be a good president. It’s infuriating the amount of single issue voters there are in the US.
It looks like people think Trump will fix the economy since that is the leading issue in exit polls. Massive trade wars are going to make the inflation of the last 2 years look mild. Americans are deeply stupid.
Yeah it's daft.
Every Trump voter interviewed says something like "yeah he's not perfect but I'm concerned about the economy".
What they actually mean is that they have no idea how the economy works but Trump makes them feel better about hating minorities.
I think fewer people think this than think trump and his ignoring rules and laws is their ticket to power and influence for their cause and thing that trump is a means that is justified by the end.
The funny part is that all but maybe a handful of those people are going to be the ones under the boot, rather than the one wearing it.
I think we need to stop wondering why Republicans are doing so well and with that, lamenting that just over half of the
minorityvoting population in this country will proudly vote for open fascists; stop imagining voters in the middle who are going to magically defect from the right if Democrats outflank them on the right's own invented issues; and start asking ourselves whose votes the Democrats are actually campaigning for if not ours.RFK in charge of HHS and Leon in charge of gutting the new deal. Jesus Christ.
EPA gone.
Fight against climate change over.
SCOTUS justice Aileen Cannon.
No fault divorce gone.
National abortion ban.
Free speech destroyed.
Ukraine gone.
Gaza gone.
NATO alliance gone.
U.S. economy wasted.
U.S. military in the streets.
National concentration camps.
LOL. Wtf, Americans?
I can't believe we're a few votes away from having a stooge at the helm and an anti vaxxer as the head of the CDC and FDA.
This fucking hurts.
And don't forget that Herschel Walker will be a DoD lead.
Yeah. But we need to squarely focus the blame on Harris, the campaign, the apologists who excused some of here deeply unpopular positions, and disallowed the dissent that tried to bring her to more popular positions.
In the previous 6 elections, the candidate that ran as an anti-elite populist won.
This will make 7 (if Trump wins).
There's a lot of blame to go around.
-Americans who tolerate and accept Trump's behavior.
-Biden for not calling it sooner and letting a proper candidate emerge. Harris was the best at the last minute but there should have been actual primaries.
-Harris for not swinging for the fences and playing it safe.
arming a genocide and going in on anti-crime and -migrant rhetoric is "playing it safe" jfc
Yep! You new to American politics?
No, I am very acutely aware of how we got here. Clearly their strategy did not work or they would have won tonight. It's a trick and you fell for it, hard. Of course you wouldn't want to admit that.
Anyone out there that is gung ho about the border and arming Israel was always going to vote Republican. Ceding the narrative on those only reinforced the Republican base, and not offering anything material depressed the Democrat base. The whole time they've been pandering to imaginary voters and you'll first gaslight yourself into believing those voters exist and your country is a horrible place of garbage people before you'll admit that your side could have done things differently to appeal to more voters.
You're taking out your frustration with your misunderstanding of what "playing it safe" means on me.
No. You're rationalizing an objectively bad campaign. "Playing it safe" would have been running a good campaign with popular policies and listening to voters' demands, running on improving the average American's material conditions and communicating what good they've done to that end thus far. Not picking up reactionary right-wing policies and trying to come out on top by completely ceding the issues to the side that invented them, hoping that cynicism alone will somehow get everyone to turn out to vote. The Republicans are not going to be beat at their own game.
Yes, yes it is.
Most of America wants to curb immigration.
Most of America backs Israel or doesn't care.
We must be watching different elections and your version must have historic turnout, since americans are so enthusiastic about deporting immigrants and flattening gaza, no?
Cause in mine I just see two unpopular candidates except one of them has cultivated a delusional cult to propel them forward and the other has the american electorate convinced that being evil is non-negotiable.
What about the people that were protesting war crimes outside her rallies? No blame for them?
Maybe she should have listened to what they had to say.
This is the kind of delusional thinking that cost Harris the election. That you could just "abuse" people into accepting a genocide.
You, this specific kind of thinking, this is what is to blame for Harris's loss.
Well when every single Palestinian is dead or displaced and Gaza is annexed into Israel by February you be sure to cling to that moral high ground!
I mean, Harris is in the unenviable position of having to get the support of both conservatives and leftists at the same time (because the democratic party is an awkward hodgepodge of much of what passes for the left in the US, people who mostly just want to not be discriminated against, and people who fundamentally are conservatives but feel like the republicans go too far or dislike their stance on one thing or another.) It is nigh impossible to not have some unpopular positions if you've got to try to maintain the support of groups of people that sometimes want mutually exclusive things, and can afford to lose neither, because no position in that instance is truly that popular.
I know Lemmy likes to think that if she only adopted all of their positions, she'd win in a landslide, and if Lemmy was the electorate that'd probably be the case, but to be perfectly frank, I'm far from the most far left person I encounter here routinely, and I'm already in the position of not knowing a single other person irl that agrees with me on a number of my stances. The issue for Harris isn't that she tries to get votes from conservatives, she in order to win, she has to win some amount of them, the US is too conservative a country to avoid that, it's that at the end of the day, Trump has a cult following, and a lot of people that like him. He might seem "easily beatable" because he does crap that would sink someone else, but he really isn't, having that many motivated followers is a huge asset in elections.
Isn't the blatantly obvious answer to "who is to blame for Trump getting elected?", assuming that he ultimately does, the people that voted for Trump?
He went to black barbershops and McDonald's. Where the hell was she? I'm sorry, but this fucker was the most beatable candidate ever and it's close.
That's fucked up.
The Democrats couldn't beat a moldy ham sandwich now. They lost to Trump twice and the 3rd time running was at his weakest and dumbest.
If there's history books in the future, I want it known how badly they fucked up and gave the Orange Moron the keys back to the white House.
In reality it's both the campaign and the voters. But it's easier to just blame voters. Lemmy/Reddit will down vote anything that goes against that narrative: but as we just saw, Internet echo chambers do not determine reality.
Trump kills a million Americans with Covid and they put him back in office. Unreal.
Pretty god damn sad that American are this fucking racist and stupid.
Texas waited until the 29th of October to mail out my ballot. As of today (November 3rd), I have yet to receive it. I fully expect Texas to fuck me over.
That's crazy late to mail it OUT. Too late even to mail it back. You'll have to either find a drop box or hand deliver it to county elections HQ.
If you don't get it in time, you can always vote in person.
I can't because I am currently out of state. I believe the cutoff is the post mark date. Still, if it doesn't arrive tomorrow, they fucked me...and my wife.
Oh, maybe the out of state re-direct caused the delay? Trying to think of a best case scenario here...
There’s not one. The Texas election officials and DeJoy did this intentionally.
I signed up for the ballots in August because I knew I'd be out of state at the time. It is pure fuckery to mail them out on the 29th.
They should be prosecuted for election interference
And sued for election disenfranchisement.
Is there any kind of online source to print it out?
My parents printed their Arizona ballots from an online link. We're all out of the country. However AZ seems to be taking the polar opposite approach to voting. But please check if there's anything available.
Everything is rigger in Texas
Well damn. This is as much a referendum on the character of America. What a searing indictment that it's even close at all.
Exactly. No matter who wins.
I call it a general intelligence test for the nation .... and even before its over, everyone already failed.
No, 50% of America failed the test. The rest of us did our part
Nah .... you're lumped into the whole mess like everyone else. None of you who think you did your part spoke out enough or made your voice heard enough not just at this election but in every moment in between elections when complete stupidity was being presented as the norm.
You deserve what you get because you didn't fight hard enough for what you wanted.
It's so disappointing that the rest of us in the world all have to deal with your stupidity.
You hear that, pregnant women who are now going to die, trans youth, and minorities or any kind? Ininewcrow thinks you’re to blame for your own demise, no matter how you voted.
Missouri passes a statewide abortion protection which will be overturned next year by the guy they voted for President.
Brilliant!
Put a fork in human civilization. It's done. The door is closed on climate change.
Goodbye Gaza... great work everybody! Also, this is shocking. 😐
So this is what we are as a nation?
Thanks America, for the hell you're about to unleash.
Wait until the FBI, IRS, and DOJ is weaponized against Trump's opponents. With Presidential immunity. Jesus Christ.
I have young kids.. My wife always asks me if bringing them into this world was a mistake. I was always the optimist telling her I didn't think it so. Now I don't know what to feel. What are they going to do... Ugh. This is a waking nightmare. I'm scared.
I knew Americans were questionable people, but I didn't imagine they would be this shitty. Jesus.
The rest of the world is watching, America.
Don't fuck this up.
We already fucked up. The SOB should be nowhere near the candidacy, but here we are.
Let's not fuck up more.
Good point! Let me rephrase. 😁
You've dropped the ball, America. Don't trip over it, faceplant and give yourself permanent brain damage.
Goodness knows some of us are trying our best. I mean keep in mind our country is a democracy in name but systemically props up white supremacists in excess of the real popular opinion. And a media disinformation machine keeps the working class divided against itself, with open support from the wealthiest and owners of the most popular social media platforms. Social media platforms that, let's be honest, are super recent inventions we are not yet capable of engaging with safely. It makes it an uphill battle to try to reach out to people whose necks aren't on the line. And the responsibility to do so falls upon the disenfranchised themselves, who are increasingly saddled with economic and health burdens that might just kill us someday.
I get the potshots at Americans, but frankly I don't plan on taking the blame if this goes tits up - many of us did a hell of a lot more than vote to resist fascism. And I'll fight the notion that citizens at large are the problem. It's a cynical outlook that serves to individualize the responsibility for a systematic disaster. Our country was built to make this possible after all. And I sure as hell know I don't plan on giving up if Trump clinches the presidency. Kind of morbidly curious about how much of an incompetent clusterfuck Project 2025's implementation would be.
Victory or no, fascists are paper tigers and I plan on sticking around to remind them of that fact however I can.
When the shit starts, America, don't forget he told you exactly what he was going to do. You voted for what's coming.
8 PM Eastern / 5 PM Pacific
Puerto Rico - Nonbinding - Harris win.
United States Virgin Islands - Not voting.
(D 7 EC Votes) Connecticut - Called For Harris
(D 3) Delaware - Called For Harris
(D 3) District of Columbia - Called For Harris
(D 4) Maine - Called For Harris
(D 10) Maryland - Called For Harris
(D 11) Massachusetts - Called For Harris
(D 4) New Hampshire - Called For Harris
(D 14) New Jersey - Called For Harris
(D 28) New York - Called For Harris
(D 4) Rhode Island - Called For Harris
(D 3) Vermont - Called For Harris
(D 13) Virginia - Called For Harris
(R 30) Florida - Called For Trump
(BG 16) Georgia - Called For Trump
(R 11) Indiana - Called for Trump
(R 8) Kentucky - Called for Trump
(BG 15) Michigan - Called For Trump
(BG 16) North Carolina - Called For Trump
(R 17) Ohio - Called For Trump
(BG 19) Pennsylvania - Called For Trump
(R 9) South Carolina - Called For Trump
(R 11) Tennessee - Called For Trump
(R 4) West Virginia - Called for Trump
Very handy, thank you!
I think I need to stop following this at this point. I wish everyone the best.
So much for that Iowa poll.
Knew that poll was a flaming pile of horseshit the moment it came out. Lady got lucky a few cycles in a row.
Called it. It was ONE poll flying in the face of all the others.
Whoever ran the Harris campaign on Reddit deserves their salary. That was an amazing echo chamber that had me fooled. I was expecting a blue wave better than Biden 2020. Too bad it doesn't translate into the election.
+1 cat lady vote in Michigan!
.
(And I got their last cat sticker)
that looks like something you'd see in a museum
You think Trump would let the museums be about anyone but him?
Musk will eventually fall out of favor.
SCOTUS is gone for 40 years.
Death clock started for the New Deal.
jordanlund is a Lemminal treasure. This thread needs to be pinned to the top of Lemmy (if that was a thing).
It's game over if Michigan falls to Trump. Good job being mealy mouthed about genocide. We can't upset AIPAC can we?
Just listened to Selzer break down her methodology in clear, simple terms. I'm starting to think the polling error this cycle is pretty big, and Harris is going to win handily.
God I hope so... The #1 problem with polling has been trying to determine who is or is not a "likely voter".
We're seeing that in PA. 22 recent polls, 18 "Likely Voter" polls, meanwhile 100,000 new voters casting ballots early. New voters aren't counted as "likely".
I've been thinking about this too.
I've heard a lot of commentary about how polling has addressed the shortcomings of recent election cycles and that its more or less all fixed now. I do wonder though, there seems to be a heap of things that are very difficult to account for.
For example, who's actually going to vote vs just intending to vote. For example the garbage thing has motivated a lot of people to get it done.
Another is the late break. I think for a lot of people that just don't pay attention to politics, if you ask them 2 weeks ago they just haven't really thought about it - their answers are precooked from last cycle. As the big day comes around and people think about candidates, lots of traditional republicans voters will make a different choice.
Also just generally with polls is the type of person that actually completes polls. Most people ain't got time for that.
Of course I understand pollsters try to control for these things but as these problems stack up its easy to see how there can be some surprises.
👍
I did my part. You all need to get out and vote if you havent already.
I'm a little pissed off that our Election Officials were allowing Trump voters to wear hats and shirts while they were voting. But I guess they didn't want to chance the risk of these violent fuckers fucking up the voting.
That's electioneering and not allowed.
they've already been assaulting poll workers who asked them to remove their political stuff for voting.
Remember, for some reason, society bends over backwards to make sure conservatives don't get held to the same standard as everyone else.
Trump being the best example. Democrat who did one of the things he did would have long since been in jail.
Harris has ONE path to victory, ONE.
She has to win PA, MI, WI, MN.
Losing any one of those 4 states ends it.
MSNBC just called PA for Trump. That's it, it's over!
Remember; most mail ins are democrat. If it looks bad that's because we are not close to done.
I am on edge and dooming. If Trump wins it's all over. I'll likely literally die.
Get your favourite show on netflix and watch that. No point in giving yourself mini heart attacks every time a county with 15 farmer’s ballots get counted.
Go over to Reddit if you want to have a nervous breakdown. It's a complete shitshow over there at the moment.
I don't get it. There haven't been any surprises yet.
Pretty much every state is following as expected. Its going to be super close and come down to PA, MI, and WI.
I'm losing my ability to give a fuck at this point. Everything short of large scale civil unrest or political revolution is basically business as usual. Whatever happens I'm sure we'll fucking deserve it.
If you're looking at which states have been called then there may not be any surprises, but things like the NYT needle are following trends in states which are yet to be called.
Republican counties, with their fewer number of citizens, always report first. Rural areas are easier to count. Democrat counties, which tend to be urban, have far larger numbers and report later.
The trend doesn't matter on election day. Republicans always get the first wave, then Democrats catch up later. The question is how many urban areas are remaining in each state?
Answer: Lots for VA and NC. That's why AP hasn't called. Ignore the websites or newspapers that try to give you truth before the urban centers (with massive populations) dramatically shift the vote around.
the problem is trump is over performing in those counties relative to 2020.
The NYT needle for the popular vote is currently leaning toward Trump, what the fuck is going on? lol
https://i.imgur.com/n7IYQxh.png
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-06/us-presidential-election-live-updates-kamala-harris-donald-trump/104546228?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web#live-blog-post-132409
This clip talks through the swings towards Trump in a bunch of demographics. It's just bizarre.
For example college educated women have swung towards trump. What the fuck.
So, so, so much of this is the Israel/palestine issue. I cannot imagine it’s different. Especially when you talk about younger people and college educated voters.
But it’s not just because people care about it. It’s that it was a massive, opportunistic wedge issue that people looking to depress turnout used to bolster trumps chances. I’m not going to say who those people were that wanted to see this change, but the amount of people I’ve seen talking about it online, the amount of people I’ve talked to in person who just didn’t vote and cited the genocide…there’s no doubt in my mind it was Kamala’s silence until literally yesterday about “doing everything in her power to end the war in Gaza” that really put the nail in the coffin for her. And even that is light language (the day before Election Day, no less) when discussing genocide. But you see, those of us who care about it had this button purposefully pressed for us in order to hurt Kamala’s chances. Even when I’m describing that situation, I have a hard time not framing it as the legitimate issue it is. Because it’s a massive issue. A fuckin holocaust is happening before our eyes.
But things are about to get much, much worse for those people. Because the internet stoked the (very legitimate) feelings of anger. It’s not a solution to blow the entire situation up so you can say “well I didn’t vote for genocide.” It’s happening. And it’s about to get so much worse.
California hasn't been counted yet.
That'll take like a week to finish count
it's more of a panic over county margins compared to 2020 that they're showing on TV.
My despair is through the roof right now. What a mess.
I quite literally think I might have half a diazepam to get me through the next 6 hours or so.
We still got mid terms and we still got 2028. And if it comes to it we still got violence
It's truly terrible.
Hey, you survived one trump term.
Over a million people didn't.
Yeah, not saying it was a good time.
Just trying to inject a little positivity.
Last election it 100% looked like Trump was going to win until the mail in dam broke.
Are most mail in ballots democrat this year? I thought republicans were pushing that more with their base. But I don't know if they actually did it or if they voted more in person.
They have been anti mail in for a long time and still are.
It depends on the state. In some states, they're counted first, but some states do the opposite and some (NV) don't release any data until everyone is out of the poll lines. The final numbers will also vary since many states just require a post mark on or before election day - these "late" votes are counted last.
No idea
“It looks like we have a very substantial lead,” said Trump after 6 votes were counted indicating a 3-3 tie.
https://apnews.com/live/trump-harris-election-updates-11-5-2024
A 3-3 tie where there were zero registered democrats (2 undeclared and 4 registered Republicans), meaning at best both undeclared and at least one registered Republican voted for Harris. At worst it means at least 3 registered Republicans voted for Harris.
They all voted for Haley in the primaries and voted Joe Biden in 2020. So they are “new england republicans” not “trump republicans” ahah.
NYT got me dooming. I think it’s time to pop a xanax and pretend everything is going to be okay while falling asleep.
Welp.
With NC Called for Trump tonight, its time for us all to take a rest and sleep. NC was the early decision point. We all expected it to go Trump, but if it went Kamala then Trump basically lost.
Now that Trump is confirmed to win NC, its a long road until PA is called. And Kamala needs to win PA, MI, and WI all together. No point stressing about it now, just sleep and you'll know tomorrow morning for two of those three. And wait until Friday before PA is called (or later, if its really really close).
Staying up a bit longer to see how AZ goes is interesting but likely not too important anymore.
I have to say that the wording here feels oddly suspect. I have never gotten a sticker that said anything other than "I voted!" and it really concerns me about the subtle messaging here. I tried to make a separate post about it, but image posts aren't allowed apparently.
God Republicans are such douchebags...
I guess we should be happy that they didn't make it, "I made America great again!"
https://www.atlantamagazine.com/news-culture-articles/why-do-georgias-voting-stickers-now-say-i-secured-my-vote/
No real answers, but it's interesting
Wow.
9 PM Eastern / 6 PM Pacific
(R 9 EC Votes) Alabama - Called For Trump
(R 6) Arkansas - Called For Trump
(R 6) Iowa - Called For Trump
(R 6) Kansas - Called For Trump
(R 8) Louisiana - Called For Trump
(R 6) Mississippi - Called For Trump
(R 10) Missouri - Called For Trump
(R 5) Nebraska - Called For Trump
(R 3) North Dakota - Called For Trump
(R 7) Oklahoma - Called For Trump
(R 3) South Dakota - Called For Trump
(R 40) Texas - Called For Trump
(BG 10) Wisconsin - Called For Trump
(D 19) Illinois - Called For Harris
(D 10) Minnesota - Called For Harris
Trump is up 3,000,000 in the popular vote in reported precincts. That trend will not hold. Harris will flip that and then some.
Unfortunately popular votes or the lack thereof don’t decide the election for either side.
That's true but I think this statement is an indicator that this point in time was always going to be the gloomiest.
Exactly. Trump always looks strongest early on. He looked like he had beaten Biden on the early counts. Blue votes get counted later.
NYT predicts a 0.5% Harris popular vote win based on model with current data. Hopefully it’ll be more.
Not anymore
He’s a narcissist. He doesn’t believe he will ever actually experience any consequences. He is incapable.
Narcissistic mortification is "the primitive terror of self dissolution, triggered by the sudden exposure of one's sense of a defective self ... it is death by embarrassment".
When narcissistic mortification is experienced for the first time, it may be defined as a sudden loss of control over external or internal reality, or both. This produces strong emotions of terror while at the same time narcissistic libido (also known as ego-libido) or destrudo is built up. Narcissistic libido or ego-libido is the concentration of libido on the self. Destrudo is the opposite of libido and is the impulse to destroy oneself and everything associated with oneself.
I'm hoping for this outcome personally...🤞
Trump associates the USA with himself.
Yeah, and maybe the United States could use a ego check as well while we're at it.
Someone's an optimist!
No prison would be as bad for him as everybody abandoning him and shitting on him.
It's an embarrassment and failure of institutions if he doesn't go to jail, but it will do basically nothing in terms of punishment.
Like when Palpatine was laying at the feet of Mace Windu, knowing he was at the culmination of his plans and he just needed to see which way Anakin would swing...
it is not looking good. i guess we in central europe better start learning russian 😔
82,000,000 people voted early. It’s ridiculous that the race doesn’t start with those votes counted and reported.
Counting before polls close would influence voting. Even if it were "secret" you could publish fake leaks. It would devolve into a shit show of misinformation, even though we do have that already.
Yeah but people definitely get influenced by the media reporting and the red states with earlier closing polls, it makes it seem like Trumps winning but it’s a toss up. A toss up is easy to influence if all you show is one side getting more electoral votes.
Well…all the battleground states that are most important and basically decide the election are all “leaning trump” or “most likely trump.” Like…literally almost all of them.
True but you have to start counting sooner or later. I guess you could wait until the last ballot is cast in the last state.
2 AM Eastern / 11 PM Pacific
(D - 4 EC votes) Hawaii - Called For Harris
Howdy, folks. First time doom scrolling? Enjoy the ride. I'm going to go work out and come back later
Georgia not looking great. Sorry friends I think we're cooked.
Leaving this here as a refresher for today...
https://theintercept.com/2015/07/30/jimmy-carter-u-s-oligarchy-unlimited-political-bribery/
God this hurts to watch right now. There's too many data points to comprehend but too few for commentators to tell me the trend.
Just gonna put all my stuff under this comment so I don't spam this thread.
The Australian Broadcasting Commission's live blog is pretty great:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-06/us-presidential-election-live-updates-kamala-harris-donald-trump/104546228
Predictably, musk is pushing the "voter fraud in pensylvania" narrative.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-06/us-presidential-election-live-updates-kamala-harris-donald-trump/104546228?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web#live-blog-post-132301
More women fewer men
Also younger voters:
The ABC's map is pretty good (live map):
So far, no real surprises.
link
Fucking Dixville. You guys had no problem voting for Biden, but half can't vote for the colored lady. That's a bridge too far.
4 Republicans and 2 Undecideds.
Wow. Actually, the fact that Harris won three from a crowd like that is pretty cool.
GröpenFührer said he's going to use the military against the US citizens.
That alone from all the crazy shit he's said should result in an immediate 6-0 vote for Harris.
I can feel the anxiety the entire way from the bottom of my stomach up to my throat.
Starting to build for me
It sucks so much that it's even a doubt
6 AM Eastern / 3 AM Pacific:
Guam - Harris 49.46% vs. Trump 46.22%
Northern Mariana Islands - Not voting for President.
https://www.guampdn.com/news/guam-picks-harris-over-trump-in-non-binding-presidential-straw-poll/article_657b06b8-9b97-11ef-9896-1302c4e2ebe9.html
Source for NMI not voting for President.
https://www.abc.net.au/pacific/programs/pacificbeat/pacific-beat/104547042
1 - 2 AM Eastern / 10 - 11 PM Pacific
(R 3 EC Votes) Alaska - Called For Trump
11 PM Eastern / 8 PM Pacific
(D 54 EC Votes) California - Called For Harris
(D 12) Washington - Called For Harris
Fuck.
10 PM Eastern / 7 PM Pacific
(BG 11 EC Votes) Arizona - Called for Trump
(BG 6) Nevada - Called For Trump
(R 4) Idaho - Called For Trump
(R 4) Montana - Called For Trump
(D 6) Utah - Called For Trump
(R 3) Wyoming - Called For Trump
(D 10) Colorado - Called For Harris
(D 5) New Mexico - Called For Harris
(D 8) Oregon - Called For Harris
My favorite take on this comes from James Carville:
"I'm gonna sleep soundly tonight. Have a couple of bourbons, maybe a gummy or two, but yeah. Gonna sleep soundly tonight on her chances to win this thing."
Carville gets up at 4 AM to take a leak...
"WTF?"
this ain't happening folks. fuck.
Here we go! Last run through the polls before the election!
Arizona - Trump +1 to +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Nevada - Trump +1 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
Georgia - Toss-Up - Trump +1 to +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
North Carolina - Trump +2 to +4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/
Pennsylvania - Toss-Up Harris +1/+2 to Trump +1/+2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Michigan - Toss-Up Tie, Harris +1 to Trump +1/+2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Wisconsin - Toss-Up, Harris +1/+3 to Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Plotted on the map:
Advantage is with Trump in this scenario.
Assuming he takes Georgia, 2020 was an anomaly in my mind, GA has gone Republican in every other election since 1996, that gives Trump 264.
Which means if Harris loses ANY other state, she's done. She has to sweep PA, MI and WI to hit 274.
If the disaffected Arab vote in MI is enough to flip it, plus a Trump win in Georgia, that puts him at 279 to Harris 259. A scarily likely scenario.
Honestly, with all the news showing how poll herding has been happening, I think it's quite likely she sweeps the swing states. I'm less nervous now than I was a few days ago.
people voting for harris are far less likely to answer random phonecalls or follow random links to do polling.
👍
It's possible some other unexpected state goes Harris, no?
Anything is POSSIBLE. One poll shows Harris up in IOWA of all places, but just the one poll.
Selzer is probably the most repected polster out there.
Though a Trump win in Iowa is well within her Margin of error.
My prediction is still Harris takes the popular vote, Trump the EC. I hate it here.
Trump hasn't won a popular vote yet, so that's a good call!
I don't think Trump has any chance at winning the popular vote. The EC will be close, but I think Harris has a great chance at winning PA, MI, and WI, which would bring her to 270 without any other swing state. Very likely scenario in my mind.
The broadcaster in Canada interviewed a young Trump supporter woman. She said all the abortion fears are made up. And that abortion isn't real healthcare.
Shit.
I'm in Canada and anxiously following this dumb election ... mostly because I have to because whoever wins will affect my life too.
This is like watching my neighbours standing outside their burning house and having an argument about which fire department they should call ..... while the house fire grows in size. And the choices of fire departments is a regular fire department or the other department which is a bunch of guys in a half ton truck with buckets of water.
More like a bunch of guys actively pouring fuel on the fire while calling fire itself a "liberal hoax".
Other dept is Gangs of NY firefighters.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=e6eDVsl8Kp4
lol
Why da fk is CNN just totalling all the red states as if Donald Trump is winning right now? 😑😑
It excites conservative viewers and makes liberal viewers angry, and CNN only cares about people staying glued to their coverage.
It is the equivalent of rage bait.
Yeah, that's what is surely feels like. 100%.
NBC is doing that too. They called a bunch of Trump States the second polls closed, but are pretending new York is still up in the air.
There's no excuse this time around. People know exactly who Trump is, and they have voted for him a second time.
I don't have much to say. I feel a mix of anger and disappointment.
Hopefully the Dems will be able to pick someone better to lead the party four years from now... I wonder what the world will look like four years from now.
Republicans are at 51 Senate seats at the moment according to New York Times.
So uh.. what's the right attitude to deal with this assuming we get a Trump? And I mean personally. I lean towards absurdism.
The bragging is going to make this so much worse.
Apparently, FOX called WI for Trump. That puts their estimates at him for the win, passing 270.
On a related note, MAGAs on social media are gloating and "owning the libs" like jackasses, as expected.
Updates from AP's decision desk:
Virginia:
North Carolina:
3 AM Eastern / 12 Midnight Pacific
American Samoa -
AP decision desk update for Michigan:
Ra Ra Wish Putin.
You sure showed those immigrants.
Edit: it rhymes in American voter
Edit edit: Oh wow Cruz is back too, he can go tell them in person.
Anyone got ten bucks right now on Trump declaring victory in the next 2 hours (from 6:21 pacific time) and saying everything after that is stolen?
Yeah I think that's the plan. IDK enough about states & timezones to say exactly when but surely we're approaching that time.
There is a somewhat close battle in Texas over the electoral college
The final hours before the shit show. Let's go!!
Alright seppos time to get that vote out cunts.
I’m working in a pretty much outside information-free environment until almost 11pm tonight. Really glad to not have a window seat to this rollercoaster. Cast my vote early, so my duty is done.
I know it’s too early to tell but Tx being blue is making me so hard 😂
It’s leaning red again, but only 11% reporting, so it’s still too early.
Unfortunately (but probably not surprisingly) AP just called Texas for Trump.
It’s a good sign! Hopefully not a blue mirage.
When you should know
"Near-complete election results are expected from Georgia, North Carolina and Michigan on Tuesday night, but only partial results from Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona, Harris-Walz campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon told reporters in a Monday afternoon briefing,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Dillon predicted additional results from Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will be available earlier in the day Wednesday, with Arizona and Nevada trickling in the rest of the week.”
Said Dillon: “We’re going to continue to see new votes being reported for many days after Election Day. We believe this race is going to be incredibly close, so we may not know the results of this election for several days.”
a lot of crushed teeth tonight
Friends, it looks like North Carolina (along with Georgia) is lost, this means Harris needs to win Pennsylvania (+ Winsconsin and Michigan) or it’s over.
Everyone who supported Harris campaigning with Cheney, this is on you.
Everyone who supported/ didn't demand better from Harris with regards to her stance on Gaza, this is on you.
If you accepted the Democrats for failing on raising the minimum wage because "parliamentarian", this is on you.
If you accepted the Democrats failing to pursue prosecution regarding Trumps multiple attempts at stealing the election until 2023, this is on you.
Mate, things are gloomy enough right now without this type of accusatory comment.
Everyone has voted, the die is cast, if we lose everyone left of centre will be in mourning for a long time.
There's a lot I could say about your position and opinions but I just don't think this is the place.
I'd encourage you to think carefully about the type of commenter you want to be in this very troubled time.
I've been making this point for 12 months, and I'm not going to tone police myself because a delusioned class of neoliberal democrats are finally having their skulls hit the pavement of reality.
IF this was the "most important election of our lives" then why the fuck dont Democrats fucking campaign like it?
Everyone is frustrated right now.
You're the only one expressing your despair and frustration by accusing the people on your own side of letting you down.
Of course your feelings are valid and you're entitled to express them however you wish, I just feel like doing so right now in this thread is more harmful than beneficial.
Bruh, I've been making these same point the entire time. For over a year. Nothing in my timbre has changed.
What, no blame for Netanyahu or the tens of millions who voted for the felon? Or the EC? Or the muskrat?
Yeah all of that is dumb and wrong.
Its not. Democrats are accountable for this election loss. It should have never, ever been close. But here we are.
I blame her campaign
Thats.. entirely the right thing to blame.
People: SHE CUT AN ELECTED PALESTINIANS TIME FROM THE CONVENTION TO PLATFORM A REPUBLCICAN!!!
I don't know how else to explain it to you (not you batbro) people: If Democrats wanted to vote for a Republican, they would just vote for a fucking republican.
Boris Johnson and Stormy Daniels on Channel 4 (uk)!
We never should have killed that gorilla…
I sometimes wonder what I did to end up on this side of the post harambe split.
The guy that played Logan Roy really hates Trump.
George Santos. Not pictured Michael Cohen.
FACKIN TRUMP KILLED DIANA ON 8/31
IT SEZ IT RIGHT THERE MATE
ITS COOOOMING HOME, ITS COOOOMING HOME, ITS COOOOMING
BORIS IS COMING HOME
edit: ah fuck, I've just seen what post I've commented on
That's Brian Fucking Cox thank you very much.
Found this Australian site that's covering the election from over on MetaFilter, they've definitely got the best laid out map I've seen tonight.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-06/us-election-2024-live-results-electoral-map-who-is-winning/104514296
Florida looking bad.
An Arkansan once told me that Florida was America's armpit.
Lol. Two weeks ago this forum was wacking itself off to Florida turning blue. The only thing Florida turns blue is Lemmy's balls.
Harris's vote sharing being down that much needs to be a wake up call to people who live in a revisionist reality.
Meh, I don’t think Florida indicates a general trend. It is THE poster child of climate change coming to roost in America. Makes sense that left leaning people would not go there or would flee given the chance. While the right wouldn’t care, and it’s their retirement utopia
Florida goes this hard red because the Democrats have given up almost completely on the state. And its just a fact that this forum has been fervently trying to convince itself that both FL and TX would be going blue.
And its not just that Florida is doing what was "expected", its actually that Trump is doing better than he did in that state in 2020.
If you don't get how bad that is, I can understand.
Any ideas what might be the best way to observe this shit show unfold if your not in the US?
... other than here I mean.
Edit: for those wondering the time zones are:
Pacific: UTC -8:00 Eastern: UTC -5:00
ABC News live on YouTube.
I'm watching the live streams on CNN and MSNBC, I'm assuming those are available internationally through their websites.
Under The Desk News is going to have a YouTube live stream. I'm assuming they won't be the only one.
The Australian Public broadcaster (also called ABC) has live coverage:
https://youtu.be/bnlG_x_4rqg
Y'all are doomscrolling and there is like 80 million votes to count yet in mail ballots, sheesh
NYT, as of 10:40 p.m. Eastern US. 😬
Fucking fuck. This shit is way too god-damned close. How are so many of my fellow countrymen this god-damned retarded?‽
So disgusting
Would be helpful if the megapost showed the current overall standing. Or am I missing something?
Yup, that's the plan once results start rolling in tomorrow! I just wanted to have all the structure in place first!
Noyce.
Well good night folks. I hope blue wall results trickle in over the night paint a more positive picture.
Because the picture uptill now, especially considering many ballots counted during the day were prioritised EV or vote by mail ballots, is looking pretty grim.
Thank you for your service!
Any predictions on what musk / xitter's role in all this will be?
They can basically call states for republicans early.
Musk will likely be promoting anything claiming a Trump win, but I don't think X has their own election coverage, do they?
That's kind of what I mean. They don't have their own formal coverage, but they can manipulate the prevalence of different narratives.
If officials refuse to certify whatever states, having the perceived support of the public can make all the difference.
He's funding Trump, and Trump will change laws to benefit him.
A higher minimum wage by Harris isn't good for him
That's true, but I was referring to what stunts Musk might pull during the count / certification to tip it to Trump.
What a year it's been here in the politics channel. I'm still here. Exhausted.
I will be voting tomorrow in person at my polling place before work.
Good for you! We just got the email at work "Hey, do your civic duty, if you need time off to vote, ask your manager."
Of course, I'm vote by mail, ballot's been in since 10/24.
Good news for pollsters. They weren't so wrong after all.
Although I think Harris will win she probably has 55-45 odds, this following map is the most likely electoral college outcome in my homemade dataanalysis model
https://presidentialpickem.com/share-bracket/16ead2df-6737-4704-86d4-6f606d6e6a07 This map happens in about 15% of simulations.
I'm not being critical of your analysis but I think this is a fairly meaningless statement?
If you considered all maps with any significant probability, and collated / weighted their results, the outcome would be 50:50 - the same as what every pollster has been telling us for the last several weeks.
Holy shit I hate to say this. But it looks like that map was exactly correct.
First results are in. 3 for Harris and 3 for Trump in Dixville Notch.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/election-day-officially-begins-harris-trump-tie-dixville/story?id=115504033
3 hours to the next. Gyam, Northern Mariana Islands, but no EC votes.
Harris is on track to lose the entire Rustbelt, the entire sunbelt.
AP decision desk update for Arizona:
Texas didn't turn blue, but some inland states that were red did turn blue
Source: AP News
This is based on like 2% vote totals counting mail ballots from metro areas, means absolutely nothing.
Which would those be? Canadian asking.
Evil comes in orange.
Razer thin
I hope fivethirtyeight’s caveman election model is more accurate than the NYT one.
When the ultimate loser donald trump loses, he loses. When he wins, everybody loses, including him.
Amazing in a way.
It's hard to let go of an entire world all at once.
AP calls Vermont for Harris
Indiana for Trump
Kentucky for Trump
Harris rally live with Oprah and Lady Gaga https://www.youtube.com/live/HUbZ1vD9ChY
The NYT needle is up!
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-president-forecast-needle.html
Eh don't cross the strike
I can't
Oh god. It's leaning the wrong way. I'm not going to create an NYT account so I can watch it.
I wish Cholensky would finally be President.
What ...? Who?
The world didn’t end in 2016, so why will it end now?
Looking forward to checking the results on my next break and seeing trump winning every swing state. I knew he would win, it is both the funniest and worst outcome, it was meant to be. We're gonna watch his brain turn ever more thoroughly into goo for the next ~4 years and make even more insane headlines than last time.
*on my next break and I called it lol. Nothing called by AP yet but he's up in MI, PA, GA, and WI. Strap in.
yeah so hilarious that this demented old shitbag has the nuclear codes, power to further strengthen the corrupt SCOTUS and larger judicial system, completely dismantle what little progress we could have hoped for with climate change, gut the federal govt of anyone who may oppose him, is buddies with Putin and Netanyahu, etc etc.
It's either laugh or cry. Besides we've been here before, he (personally) is not more dangerous now than he was for his last term.
Harris is currently losing VA. If Harris loses VA, this is over.
Harris will win VA. NYT model gives her >80% odds of winning VA with expected margin of +5.
Don’t speculate based on incomplete counts. We’ve got models that do that far better than humans.
Although looks like harris is in a tough spot. Going to be a close victory for her, or a Trump victory. NYT model is giving Ttump 60% odds.
Its closer than it should be and thats the point. Trump is over performing his polling right now. That's disastrous.
He’s pretty much preforming exactly the same as polling, except a big overpreformence in Florida.
Still looks like he’s got 2/3 odds of winning at this point though. NYT predicta a 0.4 margin of victory for Trump in pennsylvania and if that happens Harris has nearly no chance of victory.
To update on that DDHQ just called VA for Harris
As of this comment and according to AP, Trump is only winning by a little more than a percentage point with 51% of the count remaining. It's not time to doom over VA yet.
Harris will win VA but the speed in which VA gets called for her is an indication on her overall performance