Spyke

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world

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Russia preparing possible ‘provocation’ in Baltic states or Poland, sources say

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Can provide links when back at desk, but off top of head

  • The mafia fuel station (orcistan) is now importing refined fuel instead of exporting it, and crude exports are down to about 20% of 2 yrs ago, with shadow tankers now getting captured. TL;DR income impacted

  • Head of reserve bank (who is extremely competent) has suddenly disappeared, they're now talking about swiping business and personal bank balances to finance the war. Tl;dr economic mgt issues

  • air defnces being removed from front line to protect moscow + valdai (dachas of putin & oligarchs)

-UA has massively restricted supply flows into crimea and western ocvupied section, will become increasingly hard to hold

  • russian army recruitment has dropped30% over last couple of months. Meatwaves only work if you can keep replenishing the meat

  • civilians evacuating crimea

So none of that individually or even in whole means orcistan is going to collapse in the next week, but there is a clear direction of travel towards it as the UA "long distance sanctions" keep biting they will have to withdraw or collapse.

It's getting closer but it's not a done deal. Predictions of late 2026 seem realistic to slightly optimistic.

The wild card is China & what they do.

I certainly hope it happens in the next 6-12 months.

europe

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EU was ready to take away Hungarys veto rights if it had not conceded on issue of Ukraine accession talks

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Article 7 suspends their voting rights. Requires unanimity of all other EU members.

It's the closest EU charter allows to evicting a member state. It effectively suspends the state's membership.

Quite frankly the should have. Orban is a blatantly corrupt Putin lapdog who has been siphoning EU funds for years into his own pocket and that of his cronies.

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Stop children using VPNs to watch porn, ministers told

Guys don't get sucked into the misdirecting packing - this is nothing to do with keeping children safe. Better parental effort isn't going to make this UK govt stop the initiative because it has absolutely nothing to do with child safety.

This is about authoritarian tracking of everything a UK citizen does and says online - that's why the careful quote is about it being ok for adults to have VPN not kids.

You know how they do that ? They make it necessary to show ID to have a VPN so then they can track what the adults are doing on a VPN.

The "think of the children" pearl clutching is a sham and a scam

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You can stop asking where the mass opposition is. It's everywhere.

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No but it's the first step. As momentum builds more people are emboldened to protest, and the scope of the protests widen and get more effective.

This sort of statement is typically made by people who want to stall and prevent action. You see it all the time in various forums: "if this activity doesn't 100% fix everything immediately then there is no point in doing anything".

Unfortunately we don't live in a black and white world where a switch can be flipped from awful to wonderful (as if it was even possible for everyone to agree on that). You get there in small incremental steps with messy interactions and disagreements along the way.

Protests like this can lead to ongoing effective resistance like strikes, work to rules and etc. But you don't get someone to go from never having protested in their lives to manning a blockade of a govt building in one step.

europe

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Eurovision organisers postpone vote on Israel's inclusion in contest next year

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The genocide was the reason, not the tool used to create the genocide.

So just because they've put the tool down doesn't mean those murdered women and children are magically alive again. Not to mention the foreign doctors, journalists and aid workers killed.

The boycott should proceed, Israel needs to be shown in every possible way, small and large, that genocide is not accepted.