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Russia preparing possible ‘provocation’ in Baltic states or Poland, sources say
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Can provide links when back at desk, but off top of head
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The mafia fuel station (orcistan) is now importing refined fuel instead of exporting it, and crude exports are down to about 20% of 2 yrs ago, with shadow tankers now getting captured. TL;DR income impacted
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Head of reserve bank (who is extremely competent) has suddenly disappeared, they're now talking about swiping business and personal bank balances to finance the war. Tl;dr economic mgt issues
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air defnces being removed from front line to protect moscow + valdai (dachas of putin & oligarchs)
-UA has massively restricted supply flows into crimea and western ocvupied section, will become increasingly hard to hold
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russian army recruitment has dropped30% over last couple of months. Meatwaves only work if you can keep replenishing the meat
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civilians evacuating crimea
So none of that individually or even in whole means orcistan is going to collapse in the next week, but there is a clear direction of travel towards it as the UA "long distance sanctions" keep biting they will have to withdraw or collapse.
It's getting closer but it's not a done deal. Predictions of late 2026 seem realistic to slightly optimistic.
The wild card is China & what they do.
I certainly hope it happens in the next 6-12 months.