Russia preparing possible ‘provocation’ in Baltic states or Poland, sources say
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/26/russia-provocation-baltic-states-polandOpen linkView original on sh.itjust.workshttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/26/russia-provocation-baltic-states-polandOpen linkView original on sh.itjust.works
They've been in search of a casus belli in that direction for a while. I had hoped they would find their collapse in Ukraine, but it's too much to hope for I guess.
As their collapse creeps closer (and it is getting close) they'll get ever more desperate to find a way out.
Reporting over the years has indicated they view NATO joining the war as a face saving exit strategy (we had to withdraw from Ukraine to avoid big bad NATO) although I dont really understand the point. That could go very badly wrong for them.
Russian leadership has very different motives from normal Russian people. That's true everywhere, but wherever it gets this severe, everything tends to go wrong. Same problem in the US.
It's getting close? Wdym
Can provide links when back at desk, but off top of head
The mafia fuel station (orcistan) is now importing refined fuel instead of exporting it, and crude exports are down to about 20% of 2 yrs ago, with shadow tankers now getting captured. TL;DR income impacted
Head of reserve bank (who is extremely competent) has suddenly disappeared, they're now talking about swiping business and personal bank balances to finance the war. Tl;dr economic mgt issues
air defnces being removed from front line to protect moscow + valdai (dachas of putin & oligarchs)
-UA has massively restricted supply flows into crimea and western ocvupied section, will become increasingly hard to hold
russian army recruitment has dropped30% over last couple of months. Meatwaves only work if you can keep replenishing the meat
civilians evacuating crimea
So none of that individually or even in whole means orcistan is going to collapse in the next week, but there is a clear direction of travel towards it as the UA "long distance sanctions" keep biting they will have to withdraw or collapse.
It's getting closer but it's not a done deal. Predictions of late 2026 seem realistic to slightly optimistic.
The wild card is China & what they do.
I certainly hope it happens in the next 6-12 months.
Wdym "mafia" fuel station? Isn't that not Russia as a whole (unless that's just being used to refer to them)?
What's UA?
Do you mean to say Russia could plausibly crash in a year?
Yes, Russia (Orcistan) is often referred to as a gas station run by the mafia
UA is the international abbreviation for Ukraine
Yes, I am saying that Russia could experience a major societal breakdown within the next year, there are a lot of things pushing them in that direction, nothing of course is certain in life but the possibility is a lot closer than it has been quite a while for all the reasons listed above (plus more).
I am a believer in MRSA https://makerussiasmallagain.net/
Yeah brother
Casus belli is a silly phrase, given all this
And yet it's the least silly thing I've said all day
Put yer silly ass out there
You talk a lot o genocide. I can not even. With you, fuck you. If you have a problem, come find me.
That's super crazy, damn. Sounds like you have severely misconstrued something? I'm not gonna come find you, but I'm totally willing to clarify anything that might have confused you. ┐( ∵ )┌
Its OK. I don't care.
You're only barely coherent, but the fact that you care is one of the only things that are perfectly clear right now. Really sorry to have set you off, whatever it was.
They're never any more coherent than that. I'm not 100%, but I have them tagged as a bot since the first time I saw them I misread their name as "clanquer." Pretty sure they only manage to say things that sound relevant by virtue of sheer volume
Do you have voyager? How do you tag users as something? I've seen people mention that a few times but I have no clue how. I've gone through every menu I can find.
I don't mind. If you need help, I will try to help you.
Is okay if you come from the foothills or the hollers but you should say that , otherwise you Lou look silly
I am loving some epic bs
Yeah detach from the war fucked
I apologize to all, this is stupid. Russia, Japan, and the U.S., all imperialist lunatic psychos