Traders placed over $1bn in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/18/iran-war-bets-ethics-concernsOpen linkView original on lemmy.wtf215
Comments16https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/18/iran-war-bets-ethics-concernsOpen linkView original on lemmy.wtf
What a coinkydink.
Well why not. No one’s going to stop them so… 🤦🏻
I wish there was though...
Iran is probably making money trading on it too
And how many bets were timed imperfectly?
Is this a broken clock situation or concerning outliers?
Reporting that a handful of people made a correct guess isn't as suspicious if there are tens of thousands who were way off.
That's not how it works. The handful are taking the money from the tens of thousands, that's exactly what's odd.
A mitigating circumstance would be if the same handful lost as much in other bets.
That's kind of how betting works - few guess right and they win the money that everyone else lost.
I'm guessing the article is about suspiciously large bets placed shortly before important events, mostly Trump's announcements, in the absence of similarly large losses from the same people — as happened multiple times in the past year.
People don't typically bet millions at once on an underdog.
Well, no, but that's why I'm noting that additional context would be in place. If the account was created yesterday and they bet millions on something they couldn't possibly have known, then yeah, that's suspicious. However, yesterday there was a similar article about 150 people who made a similarly good bet, but once you did the math these people bet $5,700 per person on average. That isn't particularly suspicious.
Edit: I just realized it was this same article
Last I heard, it was well over a dozen, all perfectly timed with insider information.
Who's the damn house in this equation ? That's some Trumpian casino mismanagement.
Oh, right, $950 million was from the stock market, so peoples retirement funds I guess...
Document who did this. Make thier names known. Prep the evidence. Get ready for a fight.
No will stop them right now. But Im certain none of us will forget nor forgive.
Does polymarket require KYC?
Who wants to bet that Iran is able to get Intel from polymarket based on Trump's bets?