Election Day Discussion thread [Monday April 28]
EDIT: If the elections.ca website is down for you, see here
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Vote on election day (April 28)
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After this is all done, we need to rebuild the left in this country. We need the NDP to be putting forth bold policy proposals to neutralize the far right populist appeal of the fucking conservative ghouls.
We also need a better NDP leader. I like Jagmeet but he has not succeeded at this.
Charlie Angus should have stayed and taken over NDP leadership.
He was a candidate to head the party at one time, but they decided on Singh instead. Now he's too tired to try again. But I do wonder about the parallel universe where things turned out the other way around.
Charlie is Canada's version of Bernie Sanders, ie: he'd never be allowed to lead the party.
Such is the way of politiks these days.
He's in third place in his riding and it's looking like he'll lose his seat.
Jusg saying, same goes for PP in his riding in Ontario. He can suck a lemon.
Maxime Bernier lost his riding as well. That's 3 federal party leaders who lost their seats.
It's gotta be a record.
And to engage peoples hard, negative feelings. The conservatives keep capturing the NDP's natural base because they refuse to actually reflect their feelings and perceptions back to them. This whole "let's get along, and cancel your bank fees" thing doesn't resonate.
We need European style left populism, like Mélenchon in France, or Corbyn in the UK. The mainstream media are going to call us hippie socialists no matter how "costed" and "responsible" our platform is. We need to be going for the jugular.
Very much so.
Well, memberships are cheap and it's easy to get involved at the riding level where you can vote for the local leadership at the AGM, help make policy at conventions, vote for the leader,... Membership has its privileges.
They need to replace Singh from the leadership .... I have a lot of respect for him and I do appreciate him but you have to be realistic, the majority of the country is still very conservative Eurocentric minded population. The majority of the country do not identify with a politician with a turban. I have no problem with it but there are still many, many people out there that will never support someone like this. Singh also brings in the controversy and troubles of the Sikh / Indian controversies.
I hate to say it and hate to admit it but the only way that the NDP can grow is for the leadership to be replaced by someone who is white but at the very least someone who does not identify with a specific ethnic / religious group by wearing a piece of clothing to identify themselves.
I am a lifelong NDP supporter ... I voted for them in my riding here in northern Ontario. But I do know from personal experience and from talking to people in my area that the greatest stumbling block for them voting NDP is that they just can't identify with a leader who represents a very small ethnic minority in the country.
No, just no. Singh is as Canadian as the rest of us, period. And for any racialized Canadians reading this, that goes for you too as far as I and millions of other Canadians are concerned. We don't need to court the votes of racists and we should never feel like we ought to appease them; they either get educated or they spend the rest of their lives voting for regressives. The leadership of our diverse country ought to be reflected in our leaders and the days of trying to middle ground with regressives ought to be put firmly behind us.
I'm Indigenous Canadian and I'm a big brown long haired native guy .... you can't get any more obviously racialized a person as me.
I'm also a lifelong NDP supporter ... I've been part of the party since I started actively voting just over 30 years ago and I even joined in election campaigns for the party in my region over the years.
And from those experiences .... we can't fool ourselves of what the dynamics of the country still are. You are right we should think the way you describe ... that is what we should aspire to ... but the reality is that that kind of mentality will only occur in decades or centuries, it won't change any time soon or within our lifetime. I would love for it change sooner rather than later but that isn't realistic.
One of the troubling things I noticed in the NDP was in union and worker supporters .... as a group most workers and unions will support a party like the NDP ... but as individuals they are more than likely to vote for conservative. They support socialist ideals as workers and conservative beliefs at home.
Which is why I honestly believe that at this point in history, we need a plain old older white male to lead the party .... if Jack Layton had survived, we would have probably had him as Prime Minister at this point ... it's so sad that he left us before he had a chance to do anything.
I know you weren't saying you think like that. I'm just disagreeing with you about tactics.
Singh wasn't going to be able to overcome the polarization that Trump created. IN any normal election, he's fine. But nobody wanted to chance a Polievre administration maple magaing our way through the next 3.7 years.
The majority of the country identify with a very narrow profile, and it excludes many marginalized groups that we both know need no more exclusion. So I am super-conflicted with the reasoning being "he's not like most Canadians" being a reason to replace him, but I see where it absolutely will/has affected his image with the more rural regions.
We had a period of turmoil during Justin's last run that had Mr Singh appearing narrowly-focused on a particular segment of the population, and it was hard not to believe that it was to the detriment of the rest of the country. I worry he will appear to put one group before the rest, and we really need to believe all groups are on an equal footing before he can hope for support from the Rurals.
That and we need electoral reform. The NDP bled hard into liberal support as people wanted to avoid electing conservatives. FPTP will never lead to an NDP government.
I’m more centrist but I also want a strong left.
I want good working class Canadians to rally back to a strong NDP and unions and see their influence grow, and I want that to start pushing our policies back towards effective social policy.
It does need to be a balance, but I don’t see how for example small businesses not having to provide health insurance to compete is bad for businesses. It’s a burden off of them and good for employees.
Private healthcare mostly helps the big entrenched companies, and that’s bad for an economy.
Singh just stepped down and hopefully the change will mean more potential for the NDP in the next election.
I'm Indigenous Canadian and I fully wish that we could have a country and a political environment where we could support and stand by a visible minority to represent a major political party. But I have to temper that with the knowledge that our country is not fully ready for that kind of person. As much as we would like to believe that we could become a more progressive, open and accepting culture, we are still not there and it will be a few more decades or lifetimes before that can become a reality.
It would be more possible if we actually had an election system that was more representative of our people's wishes .... Proportional Representation would make it more possible to have major political leaders and politicians who represented visible minorities.
Wab Kinew seems to be doing well. But I don't know if MB would give him up.
Yeah, he's doing great!
I like and respect him as a politician, but is he NDP-leaning? He strikes me as more centre.
He's literally the NDP premiere of Manitoba...
Lol, I'm a dummy. Thanks for the info. I live in a province that has never had an NDP premier, so my brain didn't think to check.
That smile of his creeps me out.
No way. His smile is contagious. It just seems odd because its so rare to see a politician with a genuine smile and not a carefully crafted one.
seek help
I would honestly love to see Wab Kinew take a run at the federal leadership.
Regardless of how he may have turned his life around, I don't think Canada is ready for a federal leader with a previous criminal record.
Yeah, THAT'S the thing standing between them... [At this time Jerkface began rolling their eyes, and had not yet stopped by the time the comment needed to be submitted.]
I genuinely think that would be far more of a problem than him being indigenous, if that's what you're implying. If he were running for the CPC then yeah of course racism would be a much bigger issue.
I always liked Singh as a person, but I feel like NDP needs some change. They are a party focused on throwing shade on other parties. They need their own identity.
Implying that the NDP wasn’t elected due to their leader being a visible minority is either disingenuous or very misinformed. There are of course bigots in Canada, but most Canadians aren’t bigots.
As a visible minority ... I'm Indigenous Canadian ... most of Canada is still bigoted. It's not as bad as it was 50 years ago or even 20 years ago but it is still very bigoted and racist towards any visible minorities. The difference in our modern world is that the discrimination is more subtle, hidden and discrete ... it's an attitude that is literally baked in the system and fabric of society. I don't get treated negatively or with racism in my life but from time to time, those attitudes do appear and I am always aware of them.
I'm in northern Ontario and as much as there are a lot of NDP lovers up here, the majority of them still hold Native people in contempt and with negative attitudes .... we're always seen as either incapable of helping ourselves and worthless, while also being seen as people living with free-for-all social welfare. People want to be us but also despise or ridicule actual full blooded Native people living on their lands. They simultaneously see us as powerless while at the same time having too much control or influence over resource development. We either have no money or not allowed to make money for ourselves. Government still has a very hard time balancing between managing our complaints and allowing us enough control to not disturb their corporate friends .... which when you think about it has always been the role of government in Native affairs.
The cities might not show their bigots and intolerance so easily .... but in the rural, northern and remote areas, it still very much the same as it was decades ago.
I'm in Southern Ontario and I'm definitely not a minority.
I see the racist rhetoric regularly. People see me, a straight white male, and more than a few times, mistake me for a like-minded individual, and they let their racism spew out like bile.
Makes me sick.
It also makes me sick to think that Canadians could be so cruel to the indigenous peoples. I don't think any amount of time, reparations, or anything else, could make up for what occurred.
We're Canadians, if you're not indigenous, then you're either an immigrant, or the descendant of an immigrant. We're all here, equal in the eyes of the law (not law enforcement/police, the letter of the law), and there's no good excuse to act otherwise. United we stand, divided we fall. One country in particular, wants us to be divided. Don't let them win.
Vive le Canada!
Right there with you man, it's hard to imagine that any regular looking white dude in Canada could claim in good faith that they've never been in a conversation where they witnessed a bunch of similar looking dudes go hardcore mask-off because they thought the coast was clear.
I think most of these attitudes stem from group mentality .... and the powers that be love to spread hate and fear because its so easy to sell and manipulate people with.
When I meet most people ... any people of any race, colour or creed .. people are very decent human beings. I've even travelled to Asia, Europe, Caribbean and parts of northern Africa and in every instance, all I met were good decent human beings.
But get them in any group and poison that group with hatred of any kind and the whole mass just moves like an angry mob. It takes courage for any one person in a group to call everyone else out and its far easier for everyone else to just fall into line. I'm even guilty of this as well ... Indigenous people can fall into those hateful racist attitudes as easily as any other person.
But when I hear comments like yours ... it gives me hope that the world can change and is on its way to changing to better attitudes and perspectives. Stay well my friend.
I will say, from my own limited experience, instances of racist/bigoted comments have diminished over time.
I'll be clear, it still happens. But it's less than it was.
I'm continually hopeful that racism will be eliminated in future generations, and it is my wish that it happens soon.
I'll also be clear: I don't keep company with that kind of person. Anyone who can judge another based on their country of origin, the color of their skin, or their creed/motto/whatever alone, isn't worth my time, nor effort to associate with, know, or have any kind of relationship with at all, for any reason, for any length of time. Those people are not worth my time nor mental effort to accommodate. They're not even worth the oxygen they consume.
Meh, I wouldn't brush aside this so easily. You don't have to be a full blown bigot to be affected by bias. Most people have unconscious bias that tilt their opinion one way or another. A white woman would face extra barriers... so you can safely bet a guy from the ethnicity that has some people literally saying that we have "allowed in too much of" will face a hasher hill to climb. Though I also agree that this isn't the main reason the NDP didn't go well, it's probably a minor contributing factor.
How many times have I heard a phrase containing "these brown people" out loud in the last year? Not many. But not zero. And if I could also hear peoples subconscious thoughts, it would probably have been way more than we'd like to admit.
Interesting takes on CBC, but reality is that Polievre is shit. He lost this election because he is terrible, stupid, lazy and inept. He wasn’t ready for an election, he didn’t do his homework, he ran scared of the media, he is stupid (demonstrated by his understanding of electricity and bread). That he believed he could treat Canadians with such disdain and disrespect. He deserves the rest of his life as an insult stuck to the sole of my shoe.
Generously, Trump put him in a bind. On the one hand around a third of his supporters would be down with being the 51st state, or are at least fans of what Trump is doing. If he came out too hard against Trump, he could have bled support to the PPC,
Ironically, electoral reform would save the Conservative Party. It would probably split back into a more PC style centre-right party and a more populist Reform style party. I think an old Joe Clark style PC leader could have done better, but with ⅓ of the modern CPC Qonvoy supporting Trumpians, I don't know that they could elect one. If they did, it would be Erin O'Toole all over again.
He grew up at the knee of Harper. He's only doing what he was taught.
And now he needs to get his resume ready for the first time ever.
Crap like him always have some cushy job lined up for them. Like Jason Kenney and Atco.
I hate his fucking guts to the core, and nothing I'm about to say should be viewed as forgiveness, but he does seem to genuinely be a useful shortsighted idiot with a side of abhramic god bigotry mixed in for good measure. Instead of being in on it as a member of Maple MAGA like I used to think.
He's been consistent denouncing them...even late into his leadership while still in power he was. It's why he rage quit after winning 51% leading to Smith...
The predictable to everyone but him outcome of Wildrose eating the "united" Progress Conservatives alive from within, seems to be the true story.
You sure are, but that doesn't invalidate your fears.
I hold to plenty of negative views that are deeply unpopular if i bring them up just because they're negative.
The youth moved to the right. That's scary. But, those kids are getting a front row seat to how fascist country devolves for the next 4 years.
In the great words of Total Bastard Airlines, "Bu-Bye!"
And in the great words of a Canadian celebrity that I won't name, who asked me over coffee looking for his first job, "What's a resume". As in let's resume looking for a job.
It was Buddy Cole.
I mean, he's very, very good at the firehose-of-soundbites style of campaigning. The dude has literally gotten elected for every year of his working life on it.
His concession had a lot of poise and savvy. He'll never win me over but I was impressed with his cooperative tone. But I know he hasn't changed, and I know it is not in his nature to cooperate.
It's looking like people like you made the difference, based on the vibe of the early results. It's close.
Edit: It's pulling apart as things go on.
A noble sacrifice.
I held my nose and did it too. I am the leftiest lefty that ever lefted but the NDP was not really an option this time.
I said I'd never vote Liberal again and stay NDP hard liner after vote reform was kaboshed. No matter anyone's opinion on that, it was why I voted Justin once.
But here we are.
I feel the same, haha
Just in case anyone is using 338 for info:
All that adds up to the potential for huge swings in votes, swings that can go either direction.
Things to watch for:
TLDR be prepared for surprises today.
I'm gen-x, my kids are Z. We all voted ABC.
Yep. BC. Habitual NDP voter, first time liberal voter.
The problem with the Conservative vote is it's very concentrated in provinces with less seats. Winning AB/SK/MB won't matter if you lose enough seats in BC/ON/PQ, mostly ON.
I think they might pick up seats in areas like Ontario and Manitoba, even areas like Hamilton.
That’s my concern anyway.
They did much better in ON that many thought, but they lost and Pierre lost his seat. So that's great news.
I’m personally pretty happy with the outcome overall
But yeah exactly what I was thinking would happen did.
Poll aggregators undercounted less traditional voters but did count things like older conservatives moving liberal.
I don’t think this is a “shy conservative” phenomenon, which CBC and polling companies are talking about that a lot today. it’s really a failure in models to adapt to non baseline conditions, and this was sort of a black swan election.
That became clear to me when advanced turnout was so high.
I think the future for models should be to incorporate more “causal” style models, and for pollsters to break their traditional voter demographics up more. Right now it’s not granular enough.
They talked about having higher numbers skewing the models so yeah, it'll be something that'll adjust over time. I'm quite happy with how everything turned out.
Well, let's find out if we delay fascism for 4 years or not.
We best start fighting back regardless of how it turns out.
Oh yeah, to be clear if the libs win delay is absolutely the key word here. They won't do shit to fight fascism so it's up to the few that give a fuck to do it.
I suspect a lot of pivotal things will happen in the next 4 years. The fascists are at the point where they actually have to put things into practice, and that's what brought them down the last time around. This election is just the first example.
So, maybe it's not just a delay? Fingers crossed.
If it's a minority government, the conservatives are going to be the opposition and they're going to block everything.
They might still have to make a coalition with the NDP but most importantly, the Bloc québécois.
I really expect the NDP will be up for it. The Bloc might be dicier. ATM they still haven't called a minority so I have a feeling the NDP will suffice.
Hoping for some kind of Conservative participation is a pipe dream, though, you're right about that. I haven't even heard it discussed.
They've adopted the republicans' scummy ways since Harper. And it intensified during this election. We had social media influence to thank as well.
It's up to us to demand that they fight it
Hahahahahahahaha.
Like actually though. Make them listen. Organize and withhold labour until we get PR and advances made against online hate speech.
Lmao PP’s on his way to lose his own riding
Imagine if he came in 91st. It'd be a heritage moment up there with balcony guy
Hahahaha that’d be incredible
Watching the CBC feed on YouTube. It says only 10 of 266 polls reported, but Fanjoy (what an apt name) is ahead by over 50%. That's pretty incredible.
Also wtf? 91 candidates? In a country with FPTP‽
It’s a joke/protest setup by the Longest Ballot Committee ironically in opposition to FPTP and definitely isn’t the norm haha
Oh that's brilliant! I love it!
Still not called, but a pretty wide gap.
Just got this beautiful flyer hand delivered by the CPC to help me vote against the CPC:
Good information.
Given we live in a FPTP country, this is a worthwhile thing to consider as well: https://smartvoting.ca/ridings/federal-2025
You can look up your riding to see vote projections; you ultimately vote the system you have.
No harm to you at all, but I'm avoiding that site completely and advising everyone I work with and care about to stick with one of the other poll prediction sites like 338 if they have to use anything (scroll down for tl;dr).
Originally called polarispolls, smartvoting is run out of Polaris Entertainment.
When the smartvoting site was launched during the last Ontario election and started showing up on facebook/twitter/lemmy/etc, they didn't include specific information about their (proprietary) methodology, but they've put together a pdf for the federal launch. If anyone cares to read it, it's here.
Polaris Entertainment is made up of 3 people, afaict, and they're all podcast influencers. The youtube link here is a joint podcast they did 5 months ago. In it, the guy who claims he made the smartvoting website suggests twice just in this one interview that the NDP should bow out federally. Pretty standard Hot Take these days so not particularly sus, except that it's coming from a guy who made a vote recommendation website.
The person running the site used the royal WE a tonne when smartvoting was just one person during the Ontario election, and he now claims to have a "bipartisan data board." The site also now has someone they're naming as a general manager of the site, and she's said the NDP is running a harassment campaign against them, which is affecting everyone's mental health. Now, the same guy who claims he made the site says the reason he won't name any of the people on his new board and won't share any of his data is because of the NDP.
tl;dr: At best, smartvoting is a do-gooder project by someone trying to save us all from ourselves. With project 2025 rushing down the pipe and the mass media influence of the rightwing, I totally get it. People with fab intentions don't always come up smelling like roses, and I never require Purity from my left allies. But at worst, smartvoting could be another disinfo campaign, claiming to be anti-conservative, openly interfering with our elections to amplify the appearance of division between Canadians on the left, when we're already pretty cool with strategic voting and have been doing it when necessary for decades.
[disclaimer: this is the second comment I've left about being suspicious of this site since I made my lemmy account.]
I acknowledge your concern and agree your answer is probably the better one (even in general); I certainly didn't deep dive on the site itself, and was looking for a one sentence reader for OP.
Thank you for the contribution.
There's also 338Canada's per-riding projection. There's the one by Eric Grenier too (CBC Poll Tracker).
One should check more than one to ensure there's no funny business going on.
An even better answer frankly
PP lost his seat, didn't he?
he did
He may well have, lol.
Hopefully the joker is out.
Still awake for this.
In all seriousness, even if he loses his seat he'll get elected in another riding. They'll push a con to resign in a safe riding and PP will run there. It could happen quickly too. The question is whether the party is going to kick him out or not.
"We denied a Liberal NDP coalition."
NDP immediately gains a seat, allowing coalition.
It's not even a coalition.
Coallitons are when the party with the most seats (but not a majority) doesn't form government because the other parties all work together to form government.
When the party with the most seats (but not majority) forms government with the help of another party on non confidence votes , it's just a minority government.
They just try to scare people with the coalition talk to try and make it seem nefarious, such as when it almost happened to Harper, but it's a legitimate part of how our government works.
There was a point while votes were being counted tonight, we could have theoretically had a con+bq coalition government.
Edit: and even as of right now, the cons+bq+ndp could form a coalition, but I can't imagine those 3 parties ever working together other than to trigger an election via vote of no confidence.
Not quite true. Coalitions are typically starting with the party with the largest vote count to invite others into coalition talks. If they find willing partners that make up a majority and there are enough commonalities between all the coalition partners they enter into a contract. And each party in the coalition participate in the government with ministers and everything.
Interesting, I guess I'm wrong on this one, I thought it was only with the minority parties (as in not the seat leader), but it's minority parties that would be pretty much forced to do it to make it work.
We've never had a federal coalition government, only that almost one when Harper prorogued parliament to avoid it.
edit: I do suspect we may have had one if the Conservatives won a small minority though.
And the BQ wouldn't form a coalition with the current CPC, they would need to get their house in order and move left a lot for that to happen.
There was a point where the BQ could have been the only party keeping the Liberals in power though, the NDP and Greens didn't have enough seats to help them pass a vote, but I just woke up and we're back to the same situation as before the election.... Would be funny if the Liberals get 171 and the Greens also hold the balance of power.
I wonder what May would ask for if the NDP refused to support the Liberals in that situation on something and she was the deciding vote.
"So what about those 6 billions trees you guys were supposed to plant?"
Well, sure.
But the point was the timing of the statement. After he said that they prevented a Liberal NDP coalition, the NDP, seconds later, gained a seat, allowing a Liberal NDP coalition of 172 seats, if they chose to do so. If they did a coalition now they would have 175.
I get that, and it was hilarious, but there was never going to be a coalition government which was my main point. He was using the wrong language intentionally. Essentially he didn't even almost prevent it because it was never going to happen.
That was awesome.
Yeah. The staying on as leader thing can be put down to the "close loss" speech being written ahead of time. Not sure why he didn't change that part, though.
He could still get his seat, technically.
Go Bruce Fanjoy! Stop that demagogue!
the article I read about him said that he left his job to raise his children fulltime while his wife worked. then goes on to say his children are well into their post-secodary degrees so he's been renovating his house and talking everyone's ear off about how great it is because of its greenness. One of the things he'd like to do as MP is help other people renovate their houses the same way he did.
Losing to Carney, a serious member of the financial class is one thing. But losing to full time parent of 2 adults, who loves eco-friendly home renos is another thing. It's interesting that neither men has held a conventional job in 20 years. Not to mention the dynamics (esp gender) of one of them having spent the time being a homemaker and the other being a brainwrecker.
Demagogue in a Milhouse suit who let the internet bully him out of wearing glasses. Pathetic.
Did someone take down 338canada.com or did we crash it?
E: Nope, it's an attack. Apparently the French version works.
It's been down for me on and off since yesterday
Nope, it's an attack
I do not know that you should call it an attack, I am sure their servers are not used to the turn out and therefore the people just learning about the elections.
I'm basing that on the comment by the owner of 338canada. Also they use CloudFlare so it's unlikely normal load could kill it. Instead I'm guessing someone DDoSed the actual server, behind CF.
It's working for me.
If you don't know who to vote for, I recommend using vote compass to see how closely you align to the parties.
I'm usually disappointed by the vote compass. Lately it has been putting me between the Liberals and Cons because I am ambivalent about social issues and left leaning on economic issues. If you think it is non of the government's business which race/gender you are, that is putting you on the right these days.
Isn't the right trying to tell people what race and genders are valid...
Yes. I feel like polls such as Vote Compass are hampered by the fact that they take right wing policies at face value rather than what they actually do once in power.
Very much agreed
They've introduced a feature at the end where you can choose to weight your answers, so the social issues you don't really care about can be weighted
0and get a more accurate result.Ain't got time for that. I did a few questions and it did change the result dramatically.
I got the same result for the same reason.
I think the parties not releasing their platform until so late makes it incorrect.
It’s a good idea, but not good this election.
There's a "weight your results" button that let's you indicate how much you care about each question.
Yeah way too eager, super annoying. The woman beside him is visibly annoyed with him it's pretty entertaining
Yeah the blatant campaigning is unnecessary and leaves a bad taste in my mouth
Please don't put your phone in your mouth, even during election night.
CANADA DOESNT NEED A SMALL
ppCANADA DOESN'T HAVE A SMALL
ppCanada showed up!
Bringing your voter information card with a driver's license or any other Canadian Gov't issued card with photo, name and address is like having a FastPass for voting.
I just have no patience to listen to "what if" the whole night.
Going to keep myself in the dark until tomorrow morning. Good luck Canada's democracy!
Edit: I see democracy has prevailed! And a minority with NDP holding the power balance is a favourable result for progressives!
I envy your willpower. My anxiety wouldn't let me sleep tonight without at least checking how things are going.
Can't believe the CBC Live news coverage .... just a moment ago, they asked Conservative Jason Kenny what his thoughts were on resource development in regards to First Nations
What the hell do you think he's going to say
It's like asking a Irishman what his thoughts are of potatoes
Way to fight racism with racism. Do better.
Maxime Bernier lost his seat. Yves- François Blanchet BQ has kept his seat but the BQ is poised to lose 12 seats.
What did the BQ do loose so much favor? As usual I am out of touch with Qc goings-on.
Independence is not a priority with the current geopolitical situation. Plus a lot of people want to make sure PP doesn't get in.
Anti-Conservative sentiment in Quebec. The Bloc is never going to hold a majority, so strategically at this time the Liberals were the obvious choice to keep the Conservatives out of power. Among other things.
I am so glad we don't have to worry about that here in Aus.
But I do find it kinda curious. This seems a little different from how things played out in the UK. Over there, the anti-conservative vote didn't always go to Labour, but instead would tend to go to Labour or Liberal Democrat, depending on the seat. You'd expect if an incumbent is non-conservative, the strategic anti-conservative vote would be to re-elect the incumbent. That should play in BQ's favour in terms of retaining their seats. And yet that apparently isn't what happened.
That would be splitting the vote. If 30% vote Bloc, 25% Lib, and 31% vote Con, con wins even tho majority didnt vote for them. Seems a lot of Québecois opted to vote lib to avoid splitting the vote, to screw the Cons.
Right, but if you have a non-con incumbent, the thing Brits decided was the smart move is to strategically vote for the incumbent. So instead of BQ or NDP voters voting for Liberals, Liberal voters should vote for BQ or NDP, in seats where the incumbent was BQ or NDP, to use the tactic that was popular in Britain's latest election. In the UK there were also some seats previously held by Conservatives where the public as a whole decided it was better to coalesce behind LibDems or someone else, rather than Labour, because of past voting patterns in that seat, even while in most seats strategically voting for Labour was the way.
I think they had a longer election campaign, which allowed for setting up campaigns to encourage this so even relatively low-information voters could work out what the best strategic option was for them. I dunno if that might be part of the reason it doesn't seem to have happened in Canada, or if there are deeper ideological or cultural reasons behind it.
I'm lucky enough to live somewhere we don't use FPTP, so I'm not best placed to say one way or the other is the right way to strategically vote. I'm just observing that it seems interesting that the two countries have, in these latest two elections, taken very different approaches. (I will say that this whole discussion is just all the more reason both countries should adopt a real democratic voting system. IRV at the least. A proportional system preferably.)
10:41 p.m. EDT: Blanchet holds seat as party suffers losses
https://www.ctvnews.ca/federal-election-2025/article/ctv-news-declares-liberal-minority-live-updates-here/
I have mixed emotions today. I grieved for a few days after tRump was elected in 2024, processing the state and direction of the US. I've never had such a powerful reaction to election results before. I'm guarding myself for the possibility that PP forms a minority government. Improbable but possible. I would hurt and be worried, like I was after tRump last fall.
I voted in the advance polls over Easter weekend, when 7.2 million Canadians turned out iirc. I felt a greater than usual sense of civic duty amongst voters in the voting station - like people felt it especially important to have their voice heard in this election.
Voting typically inspires some pride in me about this country we are fortunate to call home. And although I've nervously been checking CBC News today for issues at polling stations, I also take pride in our voting process. The shit that goes on in the States in and around voting stations is obscene and very undemocratic. Thankfully I've read about no voting-related issues so far. (Our thoughts though are with the Filipino community and everyone affected by the tragedy in BC.)
Ideally, I'd like to have a Liberal minority with an NDP coalition. Second best would be a Liberal majority. I think that's the most likely outcome. For ABC reasons (especially now that C is MAGA-lite), I'd accept it.
tRump's comments today - presumably undermining PP's votes more than anything - surprised me. As did some comments DoFo made about PP and Carney over the weekend. It made me realize that the Conservative party leaders (Marlaina, schMoe, DoFo, PP) in this country have quite different relationships with the other adjacent political forces (i.e., Carney and tRump).
I'm looking forward to election coverage tonight! And I hope to breathe a sigh of relief soon. Don't @#$% this one up, Canada!
CBC reporting that some people are finding that the elections Canada website is not working.
If you find the Election Canada Website is down for you try checking here
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/federal/2025/results/
Thank you, I've added that link to the top of the post
Singh resigns as party leader.
I had 3 people in front of me at my polling booth, got out in 10 minutes. I think that is the longest its taken me to vote in years. I always go first thing in the morning, lol. Hate lineups.
Longest wait I encountered was for the guy sitting by the door to look up from his phone. Registered and voted in moments, no lines.
There was a long line out the door of the polling place, but they were all new registrations.
No line at my poll, so I was out in the rain again in about two minutes.
Hmmm that does not sound amazing. Maybe there was a lot of movement in and out of the riding …. Weird.
Wow. That makes me happy.
"That's not an applause line." lol
I may as well get to bed, but I wish I would know before if the NDP will have enough seats to prop up an LPC minority. I'd hate to see the LPC+NDP be one or two seats short, leaving the CPC/BQ with enough votes to stymie everything. Right now it's sitting at 170 combined, need 172 or more to make it work.
LPC+NDP could be 171 and be ok on current numbers, with the 1 GRN projected reaching a majority without needing BQ. Still...they're 1 short of that.
We've still got those advance polls keeping things in flux, though. A Liberal majority hasn't even been ruled out.
Have there been estimates of how many advance polls there have been, as a percentage of estimated overall turnout?
As a percentage of turnout, not off the top of my head. It was 7.2 million advance voters in a nation of 41.7 million, though. So, a lot.
I'm going to bed pretty quick, but CBC just said that it's about a 2,000 voter jump for the left when that advanced poll comes in, based on the ridings that are done. So, about 1.6% in a 125,000 person riding, or actually more because voting isn't mandatory.
You assume Carney would prefer working with the NDP over the BQ? I wouldn't be surprised if he preferred the BQ if only to strike a congenial tone and try to garner more support there so next time his majority is not in doubt
I'm not Canadian. Just an amateur psephologist who loves talking the theory of politics. I don't have my own sense of which party they'd rather work with.
I based that assumption on what other comments seemed to be making. Which was, yes, that Liberals would choose NDP over BQ.
Quite possible, but I stand by my prediction that the BQ is their more likely dance partner this time around. Not always, just not often than the dippers
Fair enough. Like I said, I don't know about their general political stances; I was mostly summarising what I thought I was reading other users say.
Are they not pro-secession? And might that not cause issues in a time when other parties are wanting to emphasise national unity?
1 short may as well be 2 short, because the house will elect a liberal speaker and reduce the vote number one more. But, whatever will happen is set in stone, waiting to be counted. I don't know why I engage with this as if its a story unfolding, like I can influence it by watching.
Oh, is that not built-in to the 172 requirement? In Australia we always talk about a requirement of 76 seats to win an election, because 75 after the speaker is selected is able to have control of Parliament. I assumed the CBC and others were doing the same here.
edit: actually, just ran the numbers. 343 seats total, minus one for speaker, halved is 171. Assuming Canadian speakers follow Speaker Denison's Rule, exactly half isn't enough, so you need 172. So it looks like it is built in.
Good spot check, thanks
Why the assumption that BQ can't be worked with?
Because every election people from outside Quebec talk about the BQ as if it was a right wing party that would rather work with the cons when all it does is vote based on Quebec's interests. The BQ will keep the Liberals in power as long as the Liberals play ball and don't try to centralize things that aren't under federal jurisdiction.
That last bit might be what leads to the misunderstanding, the cons tend to respect the division of powers more than the Liberals, but I'm pretty sure that PP would have been different on that front anyway.
Um... what?? BQ and NDP are our only viable left wing parties! If anything the BQ have historically pushed the nation's politics leftward when they have leverage to do so. This is not the first time we have counted on them to look out for us all, and they have taken on that role graciously in the past.
I could be missing a variable in this equation but it feels kind of anti-Quebec (phrased as such not to use a more serious and loaded term) that people are overlooking the BQ as the balance of power.
And yet, every election where it's a minority you see people mention that the BQ will certainly form an alliance with the cons... Which makes no sense whatsoever.
The comment about Fanjoy potentially winning! Oooh roasted!
PP's riding update as of approximately midnight EST:
Image Source: Globalnews
105,000eligible voters (Source: Citizen)43,394people cast an early ballot (Source: CTV News)Alternative: National Post > Just the subframe for Carleton
This might be the most interesting thing so far, actually, with the orange-blue swing votes in second place.
Poilievre could leave this as a freshly minted lobbyist: His first normal job.
Iirc he's got a 5 yr wait before he can register as a lobbyist.
That would make sense. Hmm. A desk job at Harper & Associates I guess, then.
Hopefully it's in the American regime and we never see him again. Opps...was that out loud
Hopefully we've passed an inflection point now, and we're not doomed to keep following their trajectory.
Update about 00:35 EST
110/266polls reporting28,327votes reporting14,52951.3%12,81745.2%(source Globalnews)
Update about 01:05 EST
PP pulls up 0.5%
24,24851%21,68845.6%7091.5%(source Globalnews)
Comment: Thy have counted 6709 votes in the past 30 minutes or so. This is the riding with 1 meter long ballots. What the fuck.
Update about 10:40 est
264/266 polls reporting
83,756 votes reporting
Bruce Fanjoy LIB 42,374 50.6%
Pierre Poilievre* CON 38,581 46.1%
Beth Prokaska NDP 1,190 1.4%
Same source as previous
Comment: that's about 80% voter turnout
https://globalnews.ca/news/11153487/canada-election-pierre-poilievre-carleton-riding-results/
When my special ballot hadn't shown up the local election office said that there is still a process to vote in person, you have to sign a statement saying you have not voted yet. It showed up the next day but according to them there is a process but they don't mention it unless it's really needed. It was last Thursday so I was a bit worried I wouldn't be able to vote at all.
NDP needs to drop Singh. Conservatives need to drop PP.
Singh just announced he is stepping down as party leader.
I dont believe the hype. I think he'd have been great.
I don't dislike Singh but I don't think he was a good leader.
I don't think he saw his own failures coming, but I've been saying for a while this would happen.
I don't think he did a good enough job getting the message out to the working class, and that needs to be the NDP foundation. Unless it's a worker party, what actually separates it from the greens?
I actually do like most of their platform, and the platform is bold. I Also like that he did push for dental and pharma, but as released those programs are a huge frustration to me.
I think he performed well in the debates. I wouldn't be surprised if the NDP has trouble filling his shoes. Though they may be able to by picking someone who is more 'demographically palatable' to the average Canadian.
That's a nice way to put it, but I agree. Accept the sad reality and put forward a candidate who can realistically win. Once in power you can work on reducing racism/sexism etc.
I feel you, I think the NDP needs another Jack Layton. He was lightning in a bottle.
I imagine Singh could've approached an adequate level of leadership and approval he had if he kept accumulating more political outreach experience rather than step down, but so it goes.
Seeing as they voth lost there seat pretty sure that choice has been made for them
Yup. Here's hoping the selection process goes slow so the Cons can't cause trouble for a bit.
I don't think he'll want to continue after this tbh
Just stepped down.
It sucks but it's the right move. The London Fanshawe riding is devastating. We were an NDP stronghold for almost 20 years
Elections Canada website down during peak voting time? Yikes.
Most likely a DDoS. 338Canada got DDoSed over the last 24 hours.
Russia playing games again?
We don't need Russia to DDoS shit. We have plenty technically able cons in Canada that can do it.
I respect the people at Elections Canada, but not their funding. I'm glad we do not use voting machines but instead still count votes by hand with people watching like a hawk.
While i agree, i get the ick from Alberta being soooo blue it’s like Canada’s biggest bruise. I often wonder if cons have goons planted 🤷
Interactive live results pages are clearly losing this election.
"He's earned his right to stay as leader."
Dude it's not even guaranteed that he's keeping his seat.
The NDP had 9 years to press the promise of PR and did nothing. Fuck em. I hope they lose party status.
It was a mistake (in obvious retrospect) to not settle for RCV. Singh made his weekend speech, "vote strategically to not split for CPC win", which never has to be said under RCV. You can instead double down on why you should be first or 2nd choice, and voter only needs to agree to help you/party. You don't get strategic voting instructions from mainstream media. You have to rely on actively searched for leaked polling data that may or may not be true.
That's what I meant in long form. If they would have held the Libs to account, they could have got it. Instead they backed themselves into a corner and us into a two-party system. Fuck them in the 🐐 🍑 but this is what they get for not being the NDP Canadians needed.
Did they accomplish something? Sure, but not what we most need to avoid the pitfalls of a two-party ticket in the future. And the future is here.
PR is a non-starter for the liberals, their party would completely disappear if they passed it. That's why they sabotaged/killed it even though they promised last time.
The NDP couldn't push it through even if they wanted, all it would have done is forced an election into the Conservatives.
This. PR is a death knell for the bigger parties and they'll fight it. Maybe. Mayyyybe that can be pushed for RCV. But I think Mr Singh didn't have the poker hand for that and needed to play for dental framework instead. Continuing on that would have been great, but he overplayed his hand as it was and set Justin on the election course.
This time, if Mark wins the big bag and runs majority, we'll see lots of minor improvements but nothing glamorous: his people will keep any big gains in the war chest and/or spent immediately on an independent euro-connected peacekeeper force.
We're gonna see real estate shenanigans, though, same as cons, with bungalow boondoggles and sprawl for quick cheap housing to satisfy the numbers, and it'll be a long time before we can claw ourselves farther away from the same Muni economic brink that Detroit fell over with its unsustainable bungalow sprawl. But keep in mind almost no one has a good plan to get good, dense, walkable mixed-use tower housing linked to trains because that's a project with excellent returns at a pace too slow for the protestors. If Mark does anything foundational for that it'll be noise amid the effort to placate the short-thinkers and stay in power for a better term next time.
We're gonna see a lot of younger voters looking for the whizbang change the cons offer, not understanding the whole story, the motivations, and the history of every other time we got onboard there. Harper.
But if we can get steady gains, if we can improve ancillary healthcare coverage like the last term, if we can start the ground work for RCV which is more appealing to the incumbent giants, then we could see that in 5 years as a hard promise.
In those 5 years we need to teach kids what "the whole truth" looked like under Mr Harper and see whether they like the side of the box with the nutrient value - mmm, riboflavin - as much as the front of the box with the splashy graphics the offer of the free prize inside.
I'm not sold on PP/PR, and I understand RCV to help liberals more, but I disagree that LPC would do poorly under PP.
The Liberals only benefit from various PR type options if we assume that new parties wouldn't form and only the existing parties are competing.
That wouldn't be the case.
Doesn't matter in the end though. I think Liberals have a large enough conservative (status quo) voterbase among WASPy city population that they would always be an at least German SDP level party, forming coalition governments left and right.
And if not, well, they've been the "default party of Canada" for long enough.
Canadians, what's the deal with "official party status"? I gather from the CBC that you need 12 seats to achieve it, but what does it actually do, what's the reasoning behind it, and do people generally like this system?
For context, here in Australia party status is decided pre-election, and only requires you have 1500 active members, or at least 1 incumbent. To my knowledge the only thing it gives you here is more flexibility with respect to campaign financing.
It's time allotment in the HoC and money for staff, research, etc. Not much more.
Just having that presence and national media time could vault a proper leader and party forward with the savings from staffing and offices near but not on the hill and could be very beneficial for the right small party. Getting there is the hard part. Grasping it and making it work, hasn't happened yet.
Honestly, I hadn't even heard much about it until this election, and I've been pretty heavily involved in electoral politics. To actually register a party it's just a fee and a few hundred signatures, and the requirement to get a candidate on the ballot is similar.
Even the Green party has sat in the house with their one MP. I'm guessing the official status is more of a symbolic goal, even if it comes with goodies.
Not having official party status doesn't mean an elected MP can't sit in the HoC. It means they can't ask questions, sit on any committees and they receive minimal funding.
Oh shit, that's pretty appalling to me.
Yes, exactly.
Registering a party to run in an election is different than obtaining official party status. It's also not a new topic during elections.
Yes, I know. I was explaining to OP, who's not Canadian.
Official party status has never come up in any of my campaigns. Go figure.
I wonder if the election will be over as soon as the polls close in Ontario.
Kind looks like we'll need to wait all night based on the initial results coming out of the alantic.
The powers that be decided this election is paper ballots only, so no counting machines to make it go faster.
I mean I get it, but the results will take longer than normal.
Honestly for the best, counting machines are potentially vulnerable to foreign interference.
Not really tho. That's an American thing. Our elections are managed by an independent Elections Canada, not by individual parties. We protect our right to vote pretty well.
But to avoid any 'argument' that the Cons might throw up, Elections Canada decided this would be best.
Anything that runs source code can be hacked. I'm not talking about elections canada or one of the parties influencing the votes. I'm talking about foreign state sponsored cyber warfare undermining our election.
If it's online. The vote counting machines are not.
Many times a voting machine in America - not 'online' - still was reachable on wifi or bluetooth, and was thus very vulnerable.
For more info, talk to the people who secure America's election, if you can find them after they were fired.
You can 100% install hardware back doors. Anyone that says something can't be hacked has never worked on secure products before. There is always a way in. Being disconnected from a network isn't always enough.
More secure.
Fewer chances for PP to use lies to delay his inevitable loss.
Quebec and Ontario
An often noted oddity of the Canadian population is to draw a horizontal line at Windsor Ontario and a vertical line at Huntsville Ontario .... everything south and east of that line is 90% of the Canadian population.
I recall in 2015 that when Atlantic Canada went solid red that was enough to show that the Liberals won entirely and the rest was just waiting the night out.
Here's the two main poll aggregator's per-riding projections for all of those considering voting strategically:
No pollster will be able to predict a ridding, there is just not enough information collected per ridding.
True. That's why I'm looking at aggregators, as well as pollsters. Just in case the one I look at is way off for some reason.
The numbers for Fanjoy have been holding above 2300 for over an hour, as writing this, 219 of 266 polls.
I appreciate Jason Kenney calling out maga North and The People’s Party.
This Liberal woman CBC has just finished talking to both looks and speaks an awful lot like Leslie Knope from Parks & Rec.
(This is not a bad thing.)
Binge watching Parks and Rec currently hehe
Lurking American here. Curious who you think will win in your gut? I understand we won't really know until results are counted. A couple of stories covered by American media (one definitely liberal leaning) I've read and listened to seems to think because of the odiousness of our president, liberals may take it? Do you think that's likely?
I'm feeling it's Carney but I don't feel confident at all. Might be wishful thinking. Polling hasn't been reliable enough for me to be at peace.
Trump being disgusting seems to have nudged some in favor of Liberals, but it's also not the major reason imho. The Liberal strategy of getting rid of Trudeau and the consumer carbon pricing worked, because Conservatives spent the last 5 years yammering non-stop about these two things as their promise. Conservatives were literally calling it a "carbon tax election". Scrambling to find a new platform, Conservatives started to pivot into generic bullshit like "Canada First", and that's where they ended up likening themselves to Trump even more.
Pretty much the only thing Conservatives have going for them now is chanting that Liberals have been in power for too long and "we need change". But their platform without ax-the-tax and fuck-trudeau was reduced to the same basic shit as ever: tough on crime, cheap gas, and transphobia.
Congrats! Looks like CBC is projecting a liberal win!
I am so relieved, time to spend my tax returns on celebrating
Carney. Liberal Majority.
If enough people saw Trump's rant this morning, Carney and Libs get a majority. If they didn't, it could be tight.
Honestly hard to tell, but I'd say a conservative minority is the most likely outcome.
My riding has voted NDP every time for as long as it has existed, but I expect it to flip conservative because the liberals will split the vote enough thanks to Carney's "popularity" despite their candidate here having zero chance (seriously, PPC got more votes than the liberals did last election).
Edit: Well the liberals won so that's a lot less bad. I was right about my riding though unfortunately. My vote has never counted and this election made sure that streak continued 👍.
First result has come in!
God bless Labrador.
Well, the Greens were able to keep a seat, so there's that.
Where are you seeing that?
I saw it momentarily on the map but it disappeared. FWIW Mike Morrice in Kitchener Centre has a very good shot at keeping his seat. Very few polls reporting there at this time
I was hoping it was him.
I used to work in his riding and it was reassuring seeing all the green election signs outside of houses. Knowing that people were realizing they are not stuck voting for the same two parties over and over.
Could change, but as of right now, they're not leading anywhere.
And, if you truly don't know for who to vote: cancel your vote. Go and check every single boxes of your ballot!
There's no reason why you shouldn't go and vote, even if you want to vote for no one!
Everyone I've known who has done has always been an incredibly low information voter. It isn't that hard to make a choice. Expecting to have a federal party that matches 100 percent of your beliefs is not realistic and presenting it as an option is just used to suppress votes.
It would be easier if we had ranked choice voting. My mom wants to vote green but she feels like her vote is worthless (I'm not sure how the cons are her 2nd choice given her environmental concerns but i guess no one is immune to propaganda).
The Green Party has had it's fair share of unscientific policies in the past so I wouldn't be that surprised.
I’ve worked elections before (but currently not working this one), it’s amazing how few spoiled ballots there were.
This is not looking good so far. 🥲
It's close, but remember the Conservatives would probably have to win an absolute majority, because nobody else wants to work with them.
If the east coast is representative, they get the most seats but fall short of that.
It looks fine
Well...
Well. Liberal government.
A majority is still in play, too, which from the Atlantic results is surprising.
Trudeau wins a fourth election.
You know Trudeau isn't in charge anymore, right?
Of course I do. That is how he won the Liberals the election.
Fuck off back south
Not without your momma
Are the early polling votes from last week not counted already? Because they've called the election for liberals already but the total vote count is less than the 7.6 million that voted early...?
CBC said it's riding by riding the order they count the ballots.
Yup. At least one riding started counting the early votes 6 hours before the polls closed. Usually it's about an hour before.
I think that was Carleton because they have 91 candidates on the ballot, so they had to get a special dispensation to start early.
EDIT fixed autocorrect
In one province they were allowed to start counting those 6 hours before polls closed. In all others, they could start 2 hours before, but it is optional and up to each riding's returning officer. So some ridings have it, some don't. CBC made it sound like they don't even know which ones have and which have not.
What a terrible song.
What, you don't like country-gospel with awkwardly rammed in mood board words?
Hopefully we get a minority liberal government tonight. Mark Carney needs to taught to collaborate with others. I want him to be much more mature than Justin Trudeau ever was.
My only problem with this plan is it seems they'd need both NDP and BQ. If they only needed NDP, should be business as ususal. If they need BQ.. could be hairier.
There's also a chance the Greens could be a kingmaker here if that's preferable to a potential bloc rugpull.
Looks like Mark Carney has a great opportunity to be molded into a great leader!
🙌
Complete interprovincial trade by July?
Looks like everything is in and it ended up with Liberals 169 seats, three short of a majority.
Although jeez, I can't imagine there isn't a recount in the riding where the difference was literally 12 votes out of 21,000. Crazy close.
Either way, I'm guessing the 7 NDP and 1 Green basically become de facto Liberals to create a pseudo majority since at least that way they'll have some influence and it wouldn't be in their best interest to topple the government and go through all this again.
11:50 p.m. EDT: Elections Canada confirms website issues not security-related
https://www.ctvnews.ca/federal-election-2025/article/ctv-news-declares-liberal-minority-live-updates-here/
The federal portion anyway.
Is the guy in the blue suit reading a book behind that sign or something?
How can CBC declare Liberal government when it's this currently?
Incumbent government gets first chance to form government, so they can form a coalition with bloc. It doesn't actually matter at this point as long as that coalition can be formed. Which it will. Bloc has said they won't form a government with the cons
Oh OK, that makes more sense now. Thanks!
It could be a minority and they’re ahead.
Yeah, just seems a little too close for comfort.
Anyway, PP's trailing by over 1K votes right now!! 😂😂😂
Yes, I'm watching that too. Probably, it's the advanced polls like they're saying, but wouldn't it be something if it was the long, confusing ballot?
A snapshot of the summary isn't the full picture.
My daughter is 20 and in her second year of university. She came home to vote in the provincial election and she just voted in the federal election. If you raise your kids right and teach them how important voting is they will vote. She's very politically engaged.