It seems like a red line has to be drawn in research at the introduction of large language models:

• Research before this period: assume that people can err, both unknowingly and knowingly.
• Research beyond this period: be more careful, there could be AI slop to wade through.

The earthquake had a high magnitude, happened close to the country's capital (a densely enough populated area), and there are videos indicating that multiple buildings collapsed entirely.

Also, the main quake occurred only 39 seconds after the first (slightly weaker) quake, which is not enough time for people to evacuate a multi-storey building.

I hope everyone in the region helps them with their rescue capabilities, because they're going to need help.

As always with earthquakes, initial data about the number of casualties will understate the damage. Modeling by the US Geological Survey suggests there will be thousands of casualties (10 000 ... 100 000).

A note: they did it in winter.

Now the people involved have managed to leave Russia and they can talk.

The earthquake had a high magnitude, happened close to the country's capital (a densely enough populated area), and there are videos indicating that multiple buildings collapsed entirely.

Also, the main quake occurred only 39 seconds after the first (slightly weaker) quake, which is not enough time for people to evacuate a multi-storey building.

I hope everyone in the region helps them with their rescue capabilities, because they're going to need help.

This was a interesting read. I didn't even know that electrocaloric materials existed. :)

Having read the explanation of how it works, I think the biggest difficulty waiting for them on the curve is achieving considerable levels of power.

But they seem to firmly believe that they can get past an instrument cooler to a residential heat pump.

On Wednesday the Interior Department announced that it would pay the energy developer Invenergy $765 million not to develop three offshore wind farms. This is the third such payment by the Trump administration to undo offshore wind projects that have been years in the planning. Trump has so far committed $2.5 billion in taxpayer dollars to killing renewable energy projects.

Sounds wasteful. A state actually paying people so they won't deliver electricity to other people.

As for why - I mostly agree, it's about campaign finance. He's been paid off by fossil fuel lobbyists. The price of helping him into the White House was a duty to fight windmills, so that's what he does.

Meanwhile every sensible person, company and society looks for alternatives. Dependence on petrostates is bad in so many ways.

Good luck to the soldiers who decided to go public with their situation. I hope they get rotated out and get some extremely deserved rest, if they get lucky then until war is over.

As for the brigade commander, unless he can show the court spectacular excuses, I sincerely hope he likes it in jail, because without a spectacular excuse, that's where things are heading for him.

One does not leave units to die, but recalls them. If one cannot recall an unit, one does not lie about it, and supplies them with all available means of staying alive and getting out.

What I've found so far: CNN has a team present in Caracas and witnessed the strikes.

• 7 explosions reported - likely missile strikes to disable air defense
• 2 (correction: many more) smoke plumes reported - likely from sites struck with missiles
• a flight of helicopters which could be MH60 Sea Hawk - nothing very impressive, a random civilian filmed them going low and slow, MANPADS fodder but it seems they got lucky on that leg of the run

(Some X account posted footage from the Iranian attack on Israel and claimed it to be Venezuela.)

Opinion:

So it's international agression then. Taking out air defense and inserting helicopters over the capital of another country is generally considered an act of war. I guess Trump thinks he needs a war for some reason. It might be smart to prevent him from getting a full-scale one - and the next best thing that might dissuade him might be casualties.

An extremely unpleasant side effect: unless Maduro stumbles and falls really quick, he's pretty much legitimizing Maduro and causing his supporters to consolidate around him. In the game of diplomacy, that's not the right move.

Some other countries would certainly benefit from Trump getting bogged down anywhere, in any country. Especially a large and technically sophisticated country which wants to annex an island well known for its electronic products would approve of the US going on adventures in random places and getting bogged down.

Let's pause for a while and think about who controls the dissection of bodies, and who can tell coroners to sign statements in Iran.

Yeah, the Iranian government which just supressed the protests. And desperately needs a scapegoat.

Additional notes:

Geoffrey Alpert, a professor of criminology and criminal justice at the University of South Carolina, questioned why the ICE agent would place himself in front of a moving car.

Alpert said the officer’s positioning could be an example of officer-created jeopardy. “The crux of officer-created jeopardy is putting yourself in a position to use force in response to whatever the suspect’s doing, as opposed to just reacting to protect his own life or someone else’s,” said Alpert.

Clever and economical, and 100% high value military targets. I wish the guys who pulled this off, all the luck they can have. :)

It is possible that Russia's selection of AWACS planes (about 10 left) decreased even more.

The "sheds" were more like wooden boxes. They had a fake roof, the upper layer of which a mechanism could remove. Between the roof beams - "nests" for drones. This cargo was given for transport to ordinary truck companies. There's even a video where cops have detained a trucker while drones are taking off from his truck and heading towards Belaya airfield, ordinarily unreachable to Ukrainian drones since it's 4000 km away. I'm afraid the trucker will be facing some hard times. I hope they understand he was deceived, though, and eventually let him go.

Opinion: I think this news is true. I will not tell anyone if this is good or bad news, as it could be both.

Most likely, the CIA has been repeating to Trump and Pentagon like a broken grammophone: "you cannot win by aerial bombardment alone". It seems that now the CIA got authorization to make promises to Kurds, and have delivered weapons. Kurds however, most likely:

• remember being double-crossed in January (Turkey alerted Iran of their expedition)
• remember being double-crossed in December (US allowed HTS, now called "Syrian government" to surprise them)
• remember being double-crossed many times before

They are likely reluctant. According to the sources, they have asked for air support. The source cannot tell if support has been granted. US and Israeli strikes have certainly been above-average intense in Western Iran. An effective ground front might be the amount of pressure it would take to overwhelm Iran. Or maybe not.

Judging by the most recent speech by Reza Pahlavi, where he addresses all ethnic minorities and regional tribes and promises extensive safeguards to their identity and culture if a new Iran should form, I would estimate that a rift exists between Pahlavi's faction (they want an intact but democratic Iran) and the Kurdish factions (50 million Kurds are waiting for an opportunity to set up Kurdistan, 10 million of them live in Iran - this could be a condensation nucleus that starts the formation of a country). Reza Pahlavi obviously cannot promise them that, so he's willing to promise everything else.

As a note: Kurds will not declare statehood quickly at all - they know they must keep a low profile. They know Turkey will attack them if they declare statehood, Iraq will likely attack them, Syria has recently attacked them for mere ambitions of autonomy. They won't declare anything, but may try to carve out a highly autonomous province and see what happens in practise.

However, they will fear being betrayed again for the umpteenth time, which may reduce their eagerness to stick their heads into fire.

And it won't help the US break open the Hormuz strait, because there are no Kurds living there. They live in the western mountains. If Trump wants Hormuz, US soldiers will have to set their own feet on ground.

As an unrelated note, they are firing Patriots (the ones which can't be supplied to Ukraine, because "there are too few") by the dozen. I watched a video from Qatar and likely saw a billion's worth of fireworks in 60 seconds.

It took only a few hours after Trump warned Taiwan not to try declaring independence...

...for the Taiwanese foreign ministry to remind that Taiwan is already independent.

Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te has previously stated that Taiwan does not need to declare formal independence because it already sees itself as a sovereign nation.

On Saturday, presidential spokesperson Karen Kuo said it was "self-evident" that Taiwan was "a sovereign, independent democratic country".

She added, however, that Taiwan was committed to maintaining the status quo with China - in which Taiwan neither declares independence from China nor unites with it.

Many Taiwanese consider themselves to be part of a separate nation, though most are in favour of maintaining their current status.

As for the actual consequences: in the best case, nothing changes and maybe the US will get a new president soon. Because explaining the depth of the US-Taiwan interdependence to the current president is clearly a too big job.

The US is a client state of Taiwan just as much as Taiwan is a client state of the US. If one gets in trouble, the other also gets in trouble. Actually, most of the world gets in trouble in case of Taiwan, so everyone who needs a device with some CPU or memory has a vested interest in nothing whatsovever happening with regard to Taiwan. And this probably even includes people in mainland China, although I think they can reasonably claim to be almost independent of Taiwan. :) I certainly cannot, I honestly declare considerable dependence on Taiwan. :)

In the first 2 years, we waited for use of armoured vehicles to hit their monthly rate of production. This has largely happened, the reserves of armour that USSR built up have been spent by Russia. Vehicles that still stand in parking lots require deep renovation (slow and costly). So this prediction has largely come true.

In the first 3 years, we waited for Russia's sovereign wealth fund to empty, ending Putin's ability to shelter the economy against the cost of war. This now seems to have largely happened, as the central bank is selling reserves of gold. It follows that more appropriate things to sell are scarce.

We also waited for Russia's inventory of civilian planes and railway locomotives + carriages to degrade due to lack of spare parts. This has not fully come true. Planes fly less, railways transport less, but they smuggle spare parts from third countries.

We have waited for Russia's oil and gas revenues to fall, and they have fallen, considerably. At current levels, under Ukrainian "sanctions by drone", Russia has to cut other budget lines to finance the war - and it has cut or frozen other budget lines (social security, health care, education, almost everything - war makes up approximately 40% of the government budget).

We have waited for the wages of soldiers to drop, and for soldiers to understand that inflation will make the money they got worthless. This has only partly happened - several regions have announced that they cannot pay large one-time compensations to people going to war.

We have waited for a crisis in Russia's economy, and in some sectors there already is a crisis. Purchases of new cars, real estate and agricultural equipment have fallen sharply. Many companies have reduced work weeks (reduced pay), owe employees wages, or cannot service their debts.

If Putin overplays his hand and economy does collapse, this does not automatically mean his replacement. He's a dictator and has a KGB background, he knows to expect rebellions and can supress them. He knows to expect a coup and may prevent one.

Eventually he'll be replaced. We can't influence or predict the personal characteristics of his successor, but whoever replaces him will very surely want to end the war, and doesn't have to save face while doing that.

However, Levada's polls - arguably the only polls which could indicate the real state of Russian society - do not indicate the ground shifting yet. They indicate that people are universally tired of the war, but not yet willing to end it by returning land to Ukraine.

For example, the "country is going in the right direction" indicator currently stands at 65%. Surfing on waves of war propaganda, it topped at 75% last year (rising from a low of 48% before the war - explains why Putin needed the war - to secure his own power), but it's in a downward trend.

So, sadly, propaganda is still working, but it's not working as well as it used to. In the "battle of the fridge and TV" (for people's opinion) sadly the TV still prevails.

My understanding: there was no imminent threat to the US or Israel. The strike was driven by opportunity, not threat. Ali Khamenei made a mistake, exposing himself by convening a meeting at his official residence in Tehran. US intelligence found out and informed Israel. Israel sent planes and hit the complex with 30 missiles within one minute, killing everyone who they could have negotiated with.

‘Sixty seconds, that’s all it took’: the clinical Israeli-US operation to kill Ali Khamenei

...and there seems to be no long-term plan.

If Iran does not crumble instantly, the 40-kilometer strait of Hormuz cannot be made safe for international oil traffic without a ground invasion of Iran. Which the US is not prepared for, and Israel is not capable of.

So, unless Iran has a revolution (very unlikely during war), Iran can threaten the energy supply of Asian countries and the income of Arab countries. The US and Israel can pound Iran from the air, but drones can be made in a well equipped garage.

In my book, that's called a stalemate.

My interpretation:

• Netanyahu has already secured political control of Shin Bet (secret police) by swapping its director
• he wants full control of the IDF, but some people haven't been willing to swear personal loyalty
• most likely, the general advocate was one
• those people are now removed, one by one, with various methods

As a result, the culture of impunity can continue.

The general advocate who was jailed - she was the person who received, among other documents (likely thousands of documents), the recommendations of the IDF internal investigators about the Rafah ambulance massacre (killing of 15 paramedics and destruction of 5 vehicles).

The IDF recommended to do nothing, claiming that they did nothing particularly wrong, just made some mistakes (executed 15 unarmed medics, some at close range with their hands bound, and tried to conceal the deed).

I don't know what she would have done, but my reading of the background and signals suggests she might have recommended criminal charges. That would have made her removal absolutely vital for the Netanyahu regime.

Just came from watching the video and intended to post this. :) Truly impressive.

And likely possible due to the environment she lives in - very different from that of dairy cows. They don't live that long and don't have chances of exploring the world.

I'm surprised that someone still practises the ancient art of physical brick-and-mortar bank heist. I guess the bank was also surprised.

It is possible for China to start selling US government bonds, essentially refusing to lend the US money and hold its debt. But I don't think they'll do it as a sanction for this event. They'll do it when they think it's optimal for their own plans. When a US president needs punishment from their perspective. The current president, from their perspective, doesn't need punishment because he's making enemies all over South America and shouldn't be disturbed while doing that.

As for European countries, I am fairly confident that US defense industry is already frustrated by inability to sell long-term projects. Ukraine will buy what it can right away, but others will think twice. By the way, I've got an F-35 to sell you... but you're only allowed to use it for US-approved conflicts. ;)