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'Has hell frozen over?': Las Vegas tourism is in trouble

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I think a partial explanation can be that for most international tourists a visit to the USA is a major trip that gets planned well in advance. Easily half or even a full year ahead. Things only really got bad in the last few months, so we might still see many holidays that were planned before the madness fully set in. If that is the case I'd expect a continued decline in the future, where people choose another destination when deciding their next itinerary.

dach

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Jens Spahn: "In diesem Herbst gehen wir die Abschaffung des Bürgergeldes an"

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Vermutlich nicht (auch wenn er das gerne hätte), aber halt garantiert Zwangsumzug in eine beschissene Gegend ohne Perspektiven.

Mal wieder ein perfektes Beispiel, dafür dass es einfach nur ums Arbeitslosen bashing geht, anstatt um konstruktive Problemlösungen. Man kann generell durchaus diskutieren, in wieweit Mietübernahmen derzeit eventuell in manchen Teilen zu hoch sind und Vermietern zugute kommen. Die Lösung hierfür wäre jedoch massiv mehr sozialer Wohnungsbau.

Aber gerade im ersten Jahr macht es halt extrem viel Sinn Leute in ihrem gewohnten Umfeld zu halten. Das ist vermutlich eine der besten Maßnahmen, um die Chancen zu erhöhen die Zeit zwischen Jobs zu minimieren. Ein direkter Rauswurf würde vermutlich einfach zu mehr Ghettoisierung führen, was dann passender Weise Spahn's Weltbild bestätigen würde, wenn sinch Orte bilden, an denensich einfach strukturell ärmere Schichten sammeln. Wobei es natürlich nicht als strukturelles Problem, sondern persönlicher Makel dargestellt würde.

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Tankrabatt 2.0: Was die Senkung der Energiesteuer bringt

Das DIW hat die fiskalischen Folgen einmal durchgerechnet: Demnach liegen die Kosten bezogen eines Tankrabatts in der Größenordnung von 2022 bei rund 3,2 Milliarden Euro pro Quartal.

Mein persönliches Highlight. Dafür ist in Sekunden Geld gefunden (dass dann direkt in die Taschen der Erdölkonzerne fließt). Das ist einfach Mal deutlich mehr als vom Bund in für das Deutschlandticket gezahlt wird.

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YSK that despite being outside of US jurisdiction, Lego has dropped diversity and inclusion terminology from its annual report

Imo the title falsely implies that Lego not being a US company means they are completely independent and unaffected by US actions.

Lego presumably does substantial business in the US and thus is beholden to US jurisdiction and the whims of Trump to some degree. Them dropping diversity and inclusion from their reports just shows their priorities. However on that note Lego still being family owned lets us pin this decision more squarely on some particular individuals, rather than the usual vague mass of shareholders.

til

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TIL that Toys R Us wasn't killed by competition, but by private equity companies

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What I don't understand about the whole thing is who ends up holding the bag of all that debt?

Like banks that lend them billions must be intelligent enough to know how private equity takeovers like this work. So if they lend them money, they surely would want to get that off their books asap. But who do they sell it to? I can't imagine there is any type of reinsurance for this, since insurance providers should know even better.

I imagine some of the debt is to employees and small contractors, but can that really account for such a massive sum?

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Jellyseerr and Overseerr merging into one, gonna be called Seerr

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It gives you and the users of your jellyfin instance a nice UI dashboard to search and request movies/series. The requests then get handed off to radarr/sonarr for downloading via your downloader (e.g. Sabnzb)

Instead of having to go into the less polished sonarr/radarr that would also expose some settings that you might not want other users to change, you get a nice dashboard. Similar to how you'd browse on a streaming site.

It shows you currently popular movies/shows and upcoming highly anticipated ones, you can search for a specific movie and when you click on it you get a helpful site. It displays all kinds of info similar to jellyfin, like cast, tags, relevant other movies, links to sites like rotten tomatoes or letterboxd, and so on. You can also search for persons and it'll show you what they've been in/have produced. And when you want something you can easily request a download in your preferred quality setting.

You also may limit what and how requests from different users are handled.

europe

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Intel abandons chip plants in Germany and Poland, confirms more layoffs

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What is going on here?

I'm just an interested layman, but i'll give explaining it a try. I think this is more about whether or not Intel can stay in the market for leading edge manufacturing against TSMC.


The first thing to understand is that there are two parts to Intel: the manufacturing side and chip design.

In manufacturing leading edge chips they are primarily competing with TSMC (the clear market leader) and Samsung. In the past they used to be far ahead of the competition, but they screwed up that lead and are now behind. This is a very capital intensive market as fabs cost billions to build. And each new generation gets more and more expensive.

On the design side there are multiple different markets: servers, desktop/laptops, and mobile devices. Ever since losing out on producing the chip for the first iphone intel hasn't been a factor in the mobile market. Between servers and desktop/laptops, servers are the fastly more important and bigger market. Here they are competing with AMD, but also increasingly arm based processors, increasingly done by the large hyper scalers themselves (e.g. Amazon with their Graviton processors). Additionally with the ai boom the market has severely shifted towards gpus being vastly more important (which is dominated by nvidia).

Intel is relatively unique in that they still do both design and produce their own chips (not taking outside customers, but in recent times outsourcing some manufacturing to tsmc). Samsung also designs and produces their own arm based processors (exynos), but on a smaller scale and also has other customers. AMD used to have fabs in the past, but got rid of them (today called global foundries).


I would argue that here we need to primarily focus on the manufacturing, not design side. Even though they are also under pressure on the design side aswell and e.g. AMD is beating them in the server market.

It's more about whether or not Intel can hold on being in the leading edge race as manufacturer or drop out (like GlobalFoundries did a while back), which would leave us with only TSMC and Samsung (potentially China's SMIC, should they ever manage to develop their own EUV technology and catch up). No western manufacturer of leading edge chips, only asian ones that are heavily concentrated geographically and TSMC bearing a substantial geopolitical risk.

As mentioned above Intel has struggled with getting better process nodes working properly (especially in a timely manner) and costs are increasing by a lot. The issue is that now intel is severly cash strapped, as they've paid out massive dividends in the past when things were better and now that they've fallen behind earnings have disappeared (which is also why the mass layoffs).

Their competitor TSMC can spread the needed investment costs over many large customers such as apple, nvidia, amd and qualcomm. So far Intel manufactured purely for themselves and didn't take on external customers. With massively increasing costs it becomes obvious how this becomes less feasible on your own and scale increasingly becomes important. Especially if either/both the design or manufacturing side mess up and fall behind on delivering competitive products.

Switching to manufacturing for external customers is difficult. They have to adjust their internal processes to suit what customers are used to from others. There is a potential conflict of interest as Intel might at the same time be the customers rival (an issue TSMC as pure manufacturer doesn't have). And lastly customers need reliable schedules, if you are e.g. apple and release an iphone anually you need your manufactuerer to reliably deliver a workable node at a specific time and can't have it delayed (or even have the uncertainty of this happening).

They originally planned for their upcoming 18A (maybe even the axed 20A?) process to have external customers, but that didn't pan out (they will just produce some of their own products). Now they target external customers for the next generation 14A. Should they by then not have gotten their shit together enough to attract customers or be profitable Intel (the former giant of the semiconductor industry) will probably break apart and be done. At least in it's current form.

The fabs in germany and poland have been dead in the water for a while now from the moment they fell behind schedule and eventually were put on hold. This is just them officially axing those plans.

dach

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Bürgergeld ist nicht das Problem: So viel kostet der deutsche Sozialstaat wirklich

Und selbst innerhalb des Bürgergeldes wären tatsächliche Leistungskürzungen mir ziemlicher Sicherheit nicht der beste Ansatzpunkt zum Sparen. Soviele Totalverweigerer gibt es dann auch wieder nicht und die Summe um die man kürzen könnte (solange wir uns an das Grundgesetz halten wollen) steht in keinem Verhältnis zu den Aufwandskosten.

Wenn man hier ansetzen will, dann in der Verwaltungseffizienz. Z.b. in dem man, wie in einer Lager der Nation Podcastepisode beschrieben, einen einheitlichen Vermögensbegriff festlegt und dessen Prüfung "vor die Klammer" zieht. Das heißt, dass nicht jedes Mal neu und mit unterschiedlichen Definitionen bedarf geprüft wird, sondern einmal zentral. Bonus wenn man die Frequenz der Prüfungsintervalle dann noch den Umständen anpasst. Wenn klar ist, dass sich die Umstände nicht kurzfristig ändern, dann muss man vielleicht nicht dauernd nachprüfen, sondern die Leute Erklärungen unterschrieben lassen, dass es weiterhin so stimmt und dann Stichprobenartig kontrollieren.

europe

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Poland launches deposit-refund system for drinks bottles and cans

That's great to hear! Here in Germany we've had such a system for a long time already and it works great.

Now that the system is in place, it is likely to take Poles some time to get used to how it works – and get into the habit of saving and returning their bottles and cans.

An opinion poll by the IBRiS agency published last week by the Polish Press Agency (PAP) found that only 47% of Poles say they understand how the system works. A further quarter said they had heard of the idea but were unfamiliar with the details, while over a quarter had not even heard of it.

Since it sounds like it'll work similar to the German one, think people will adapt really fast. It really is quite intuitive and not much of a hassle. I'm sure there will be a vocal minority saying how in the past everything was better, but the vast majority will just go on with their lives after a short transition period.

From personal experience I can say that I am actually always somewhat irritated to be somewhere that doesn't have a deposit scheme. Over time throwing bottles away rather than returning them actually becomes a bit weird.

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[SOLVED] What are the differences between 1) probabillities, 2) possibillities, and 3) plausabillities?

My understanding would be:

  • Probabilities: Chance of a certain outcome happening. E.g. Outcome A has a 70% chance B a 20% and C 10%

  • Possibilities: what outcome scenarios exist. E.g. there exist 3 (A B C). Those Possibilities might have a probability associated with them

  • Plausibility: looks at the degree of truth of a statement. So if it logically makes sense and is the correct answer/is what happened. You might make a judgement of the plausibility of a possibility based on the probability of it happening. Say if something has two outcomes one with a 99% chance and the other 1% then that might be the more plausible one. Or if it has no chance, then it might be implausible


Edit: since someone mentioned the example of a coin toss.

Head and tails have a probability of 50% each (for the sake of simplicity I assume it won't land standing up)

A coin toss has two possible outcomes (possibilities). Head and tails.

Someone says he flipped a coin and got head 1000 times in a row. That's not plausible with a fair coin because of the low chance of it actually happening (even if there is a indefinitely small chance). As a result you might assume he is either lying or the coin is weighted for that outcome.