I really find it to be quite absurd that people are still thinking this isn't the guy. This is probably the guy. My basis for that is basically just that the shooter had a 200 dollar peak design redditor backpack and a uniqlo packable jacket when he shot that guy, and those are both heavily techbro-coded fashion items. That's on top of all the internet history of this specific guy pretty much indicating that he's the guy. Back problems, leading to a several month long disappearance, after he turns 26, and is no longer on his parent's healthcare plan.

We can also look at it through the lens of just the assassination attempt itself. The news is saying they found either a 3d printed gun, or more commonly, a ghost gun (which I have not been able to find a consistent account of). In either case, that involves buying a mostly unregulated firearm upper, and then either finishing an "80%" pre-assembled lower with a drill press, or probably even a regular cordless drill, or just wholesale printing the entire lower of the gun yourself. Both of those, are also techbro-coded methods of obtaining a firearm. Compared to just buying a somewhat common firearm in a state where it's pretty easy to get a gun a couple months before, and then shaving the serial numbers off the gun, or just getting a gun off the black market, or stealing one from someone, which all seem maybe easier than going the ghost gun route.

In the video itself, we see him struggle to cycle the gun manually, due what is probably a combination of using subsonic ammunition, and his suppressor, which I'm assuming did not have a nielsen device, or, a booster. Those are devices that are meant to help browning-style tilting barrel designs cycle much more reliably. They also tend to cycle less reliably with heavier baffled suppressors compared to much lighter, quieter, disposable, and easier to produce wipe-based suppressors.

His research and meticulously planned operation also consisted of shooting this guy in the back, in front of a camera, while this guy walked to his hotel. That's a plan that has a high percentage chance of success, it's the same way that you'd see many mob hits happen, but does it strike me as something which is particularly complicated or out of character for this guy, if he had a couple months to cook something up?

Based on the entire description of that chain of events, that would probably indicate that this is a somebody that's had some amount of preparation but wasn't some kind of professional or overwhelming genius. It could be the case that they dug around online for thirty minutes, happened to find a guy that had both disappeared for a couple months, had medical problems, was a little bit more conspiratorial, or rather, had incoherent politics, and would be the kind of guy who would dress in a peak design backpack and in a uniqlo jacket, and was ALSO a guy which was exiting new york at that time via bus. They would then have to plant evidence on him, which cops are known to do, but that's all, legitimately, entirely possible. Is it more likely than this being the guy, based on everything we've seen from the video?

I would say no, probably not, this is probably the guy.

Time is a flat circle, except the cycle comes back around again every second. The same conversations over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over again. Had at such frequency, with such vitriol, it is totally indistinguishable from pure noise. It's like a root canal for your brain.

Someone brings up wanting to not vote, on some principle. Could be Gaza, could be them not so slowly capitulating to the right on every issue since FDR got out of office, to the point that we're now running george dubya 2 as president. Then someone says, ah, well, you should vote democrat anyways, because they're better than republicans. Then we get one of two answers, we either get, ah, well, no they aren't, or, they aren't better on this one particular issue that I care about, so fuck it, right. Which is not a super convincing counterargument. Or, we get the real argument, we get the deeper dive into the actual political process, which we all collectively understand to be completely fucked as to basically be unrecoverable, and yet still, somehow, this is a source of constant disagreement. Usually because people who don't know any alternative have deluded themselves into cynically caping for the same broken system as some form of what is basically escapism.

Ah, not in a swing state? You live in a population center? Seems like your vote doesn't matter, better luck next time. Ahh, you don't live in one of like, twelve counties in those swing states? Ahh, well, seems like your vote doesn't matter, either, because of gerrymandering, so, sucks to suck for you. Ahh, well, guess the electorate decided to pick someone different than what you voted for, so, better luck next time. The democrats lost? Ahh, well, if only the left had turned up to vote. You just gotta vote, and then we'll be granted such an overwhelming victory that we will be able to implement all of the milquetoast reforms you've ever wanted! The democrats win? Ahh, well, time to pull to the right twelve more degrees, since we've won the race, and now whatever the voters care about doesn't fucking matter at all. The democrats win, but then the supreme court decides to veto the recount because the voting system in a single state was so totally and completely fucked? Ahh, well, looks like we gotta go kill a million fucking people in iraq for oil money, champ, sorry about that.

It's especially fucking insane because the idea of voting for them in the first place is an acknowledgement that we live in a FPTP system where you cynically have to vote for the lesser evil. Every other qualification and quality that the system has, which makes it worse? That shit doesn't exist. We're taking the most simplified, common idiot stance, here. It is so insane that I struggle to think that it's not just bad faith drudgery. Out of the 350 million, only like 5% of that are people who even approach mattering, and, as we also know, it's kind of dubious even then. So, if those are the only people whose votes matter, and we all FUCKING know that, then why the hell am I inundated with constant removed and moaning and whining about how I just simple NEED to vote democrat or else nooo nooo we're going to be plunged into literally a hitlerian dystopia like handmaid's tail? Look around you, look at what is currently happening.

Oh no! Another democratic senator has decided to stand in opposition to this bill, narrowly swinging the votes around and keeping us deadlocked into an eternal hell where nothing except bipartisan things like border spending, foreign policy, spending on the military industrial complex, banning shit like tiktok, and the basic foundational elements of neoliberal economic policy ever get done. Whatever shall we do? Guess the answer is just to vote harder!

If the democrats did actually get an overwhelming victory, you wouldn't get FDR again. They've been very clear about exactly what their policies are, and they've calculated that position as a way to push the buck as far in favor of their corporate sponsors and themselves as they can get away with, while both winning, and also presenting a constant war to the public where it's a struggle to get anything done. The narrowest margin of victory is actually a boon, in that circumstance. It means they can both run on unpopular policy and they can make it look as though they're trying to get things done and oops whoops they're just narrowly failing. If they somehow got a massive win on that platform, probably through some absolutely massive unforced error by republicans. I don't even know what that would look like, at this point. They would probably all have to collectively catch a disease and die simultaneously, and I think that would probably also spell chaos for the nation. You wouldn't see the dems suddenly run to the left, after that,, because the left would have basically no leverage over them, no bargaining power, no hand in their win. You especially wouldn't see them drift to the left because THAT'S NOT WHAT THEY'RE FUCKING CAMPAIGNING ON. SO THAT CAN'T BE WHY THEY GOT ELECTED. The only way they would get that majority in the first place is basically through them moving to the left to begin with, which as previously described, they will never do, or, worse off, and what they are currently trying to happen, is if like, 40 - 50% of the population suddenly drifted super rightward and became neocons.

No democratic party politician is some secret communist that, ah, once they get an 80% majority, after enough election engineering, enough rightward drift, enough calculations that they can get into power unilaterally, then, suddenly then they'll become a communist. The most you might see is that republicans, after losing so badly, might make a better run at implementation of actually populist policies, but then that's kind of obviously a nonstarter for them because they're ALSO owned by corporate entities and they're ALSO doing this same exact gambit. The idea of getting a huge win somehow also relies on the utter delusion that you can outflank the republican party from the right, or, outflank them with your competence at right-wing policy. You could maybe outflank them in competence, but that's both not a good thing, obviously, and it also wouldn't matter to their core base of delusional evangelical suburban whites that have an outsized amount of voting power and oil money.

The reason some people think this, if they even do, and aren't just assuming whatever cynical position they have to in order to push things around, is because they're idealistic and totally delusional about the incentives the system naturally produces. How people in power go through many filters that all but guarantee they'll be acting in their own self-interest by the time they reach the top. There's no secret leftist that is going to reach a presidential level of power and then suddenly come down and save us all. I'd love to be proven wrong there, but it's not fucking happening.

And you know what's the worst about all this shit? Every election cycle, every single time, at the one time when there is the most political interest flaring up in the population, we are met with this fucking insanely dumb conversation that we have over and over and over and over and over again. It eats up space that could otherwise be reserved for actual serious conversations about strategic voting, how to look into local policies and politicians and how to vote for them, where those resources are, how to organize, how to gain political leverage, how to unionize your workplace, how to stage a protest, participate in a protest, when a protest should even be done and what amount of political leverage such an act might buy you. None of that ever gets talked about. Instead we need like a year out of every four where the only political conversations anyone is capable of having is this repetitive overly simplified bullshit. This ideological poison which totally stymies any serious dialogue. And then turn around and wonder why nobody except the dumbest and most aggressive sacks of shit on the planet, that are obviously just taking out their anger issues actually want to talk to you about this shit, sacks of shit like me. It's insane. I don't understand how we keep falling down the stairs. I don't understand how this keeps happening.

bait used to be much harder to do back in the day

I think a lot of people would cut contact with their family at times like this due to the ways in which these kinds of beliefs often intersect with massive amounts of interpersonal abuse and broadly dysfunctional and unhappy relationships. I think this is most especially true of people who are queer, neurodivergent, disabled, or a member of some other minority, who are easily going to be subject by that abuse from their family more and more, especially as they may be more dependent on them and as they're more noticeably going to see that abuse well up as a result of those narratives. You know, people who get to see the "ugly sides" of their family.

I would say that if you're not actively dependent on your family, and you're not part of an actively hated minority which they will more easily discard, disrespect, and abuse, then that makes it easier to cut them out of your life, but that's also definitely a time at which you will counterintuitively be in the best position to sway them, since you're at your most secure.

So I would say that this is, in some part, a decision which you should probably make in reflection of your current material circumstances, the current state of your life. This also isn't a decision which you need to make right now, really, to cut him out of your life or decide to blow this particular one up. You said he's already married, and that your other two brothers aren't going, so one more probably won't hurt things that much even if you invent an excuse.

I'm like 90% sure if I showed my dad the picture of elon musk hitting the five knuckle shuffle live on stage in 4k 60fps three times in a row, he'd probably flee to the "my heart goes out to you" comment, right before trying to find some sort of talking point he could throw down the hopper in order to justify this shit, which is really to say nothing of the fact that he basically just fundamentally agrees with elon's actions on basically every level if he was to actually sit down and think about it for long enough. There's some people which cannot be helped, because they will repeatedly choose not to be. There isn't exactly a correct answer, here, I think the major thing is that if it goes sideways because of your decisions, you shouldn't beat yourself up or crash out over it, or become overly callous.

they already do that shit. elon already has a pretty big security retinue and his ass almost never goes out in actual public anymore, only ever hosts private events with verified people and pretty good security. most CEOs and billionaires aren't gonna be that paranoid, but most of them don't have to be, and they already tend to live in totally different contexts than your average person.

what I'd be more interested in knowing is how this guy figured out that this particular guy was going to be outside this particular hotel at this particular time. this wasn't a crime of pure opportunity, this was something which seems like it was probably planned in advance. if it was publicly accessible where this guy was going, that's a much easier and cheaper thing for businesses and CEOs to solve, and is probably the most important part of this kind of security.

basically, the US is a one party system, but it has two parties

Anyone competent wouldn't have fucking fought the russians and split their resources, they wouldn't have probably even started a real war beyond the concessions other western governments were already totally fine with giving them. A competent person would've probably just started eating up colonialist imperialist doctrine abroad, as was socially acceptable, rather than trying to fight domestically.

Like, all of what america did.

At this point in the war they were already totally fucked, so anyone competent would've negotiated for peacetime. Whether or not that would've been better is up for debate, as germany is plenty full of nazis now and they probably would've been more full of nazis had they negotiated some sort of surrender, in which they probably would've had more control over their government in order to set it up longer term.

Probably though hitler dying sooner would've been good since it would've meant hitler died sooner. Which would've been awesome.

I'd kind of be willing to wager that we actually hated nazis mostly because they were foreign, more than anything else. I think all that ww2 valorizing history schlock about me and the good old boys from ken-tucky and all over going out and killing all the nazis has totally cooked america's understanding of that war. I dunno, towards the end we did nuke a country, twice, in a totally superfluous and cruel act, and we also concentrated the domestic immigrant population that we were bombing during that war into camps. Everyone brushes over that part, though, and america is truly faultless. These aren't our true characters, being revealed, no, this is just some errant deviation from a much more civilized and reasonable norm! Surely, that must be the case.

Mostly I find them annoying. I mildly understand the need for human meaning as it kind of, tends to come up later at night, or for the elderly, or when life really sucks or you tend to even just be really really bored right.

I also understand some of the benefits, right, like. As much as people will despise to admit it, you don't get, say, the number zero without the Muslim science guys, and you don't get science without the enlightenment which stemmed out of some weirdass Catholic Christian theory guys. and then everyone's all like, oh no well you can't attribute that to the Catholics and if anything they hampered progress, and I'd say, well, maybe, maybe, but also maybe science sucks as we commonly understand it and maybe also you can't really divorce any part of things from their cultural context, or else things get fucky.

On the other hand I find them annoying and I find that all to be totally null and void because the vast majority of people are just using it as an opiate to placate literally all of their anxieties about the world with a bunch of meaningless thought terminating cliche style statements, and even actively reinforce their own participation in some of the worst aspects of their own culture and society even at points in which they really don't want to or know that it's horrible and is causing them pain.

So I dunno, mostly it sucks.

they legit just send out the interns to go get coffee, so much that it's a trope at this point. these people barely raise their own fucking kids, they don't give a shit about any of those like, minor pleasures. they have cocaine, and other rich people who are constantly willing to kiss each other's ass in a big circle, human centipede ouroborous style.

federated platform splits userbase into a million little fiefdoms, only somewhat interconnected, all differently starved for interaction

Yup, checks out

Stage a coup of their own?

Unironically, yes.

Well, I dunno if I'd have faith in the democrats to really do that well, considering they implicitly agree with a good majority of the shit trump's doing and don't really seem to give much of a shit either way. Especially looking at how they haven't fought back against narratives around illegal migrants being criminal superpredators, even though that's all completely made up. There are other examples of democrats being totally incompetent but I do pretty much fully believe at this point that they're controlled opposition.

More broadly, no, I don't think I hold that the democratic legitimacy of the obviously dumb as shit system is more valid than the lives of migrants, trans people, the elderly and disabled dependent on public medical care, or really anyone else under threat right now. I don't think they should have to suffer just because like, 20% of the population of the country are kind of politically unengaged dumbasses or psychotic small business owners who've been radicalized by facebook. I don't even particularly think that said 20% of the population should be made to suffer just because they're dumbasses or because they voted wrong, since we're all products of our circumstance, and suffering doesn't really make you a better person, so much as it just makes you suffer.

The FAFO attitude people are taking this time around is kind of concerning to me. Strikes me as very blatantly cruel, apathetic, and maybe naive. I can't blame people for being disengaged, but I can blame people for taking their frustrations out on people. I've even seen those freaks that want to report people to ICE for both being migrants and voting for the wrong guy. It's insane.

It keeps happening! I'm losing it!

Sorry, you gotta upgrade everything every 5 years, because otherwise there's a security vulnerability! Sorry, looks like there will be no new updates on your software, no compatibility! Surely, things have become so much more efficient in the last 5 years as a result of processing gains, and surely that will be passed onto the consumer rather than eaten up in the middle, and surely we need that increased processing power so you can run the increasingly dwindling number of social media sites that are actually relevant!

Sorry, looks like we got rid of the headphone jack because it takes up too much space and it's too hard to make the phone water resistant! The IR blaster isn't relevant anymore because everyone has unilaterally switched to wifi operated smart TVs! Surely! Sorry, the micro SD card slot took up too much space, we need to use that space for processing power! Same with irreplaceable batteries! Sorry, the 16:9 aspect ratio we used to have for phones isn't available in any phone anymore, because we decided to replace the physical buttons and ugly bezels with basically unusable screen space! But we're still gonna have a hole punched in the screen for the camera!

I dunno. Modern phones are fucking dogshit now, I hate them so much it's unreal. Even the software is progressively getting worse year over year. Shit used to be so basically functional and it's become so horrible.

I don't know why we're still having this conversation because people made ironic jokes about trump being in the wwe and knowing how to blade. If you listen to the extremely peaked out audio, you can hear the report of the gunshots, which would not be possible with blanks. They have a different sound signature, different sound profile. You can likewise hear the difference in caliber and therefore sound profile when the secret service fires back. This guy fully shot in the direction of the president. There's not really any plausible way this was fake.

I mean, this shit should probably just be banned as spam, right? I don't think it would be acceptable to make posts that are majority bot content under really any other circumstance, and I don't see why this is really any different. In fact, it would've been more effective, and more helpful, to go to, say, google maps, and then just link to where the photo was taken, or maybe go to the wikipedia page for that particular building, or this lakefront, or what have you. That's on top of how we already have contributors who are able to actually say what this is on firsthand knowledge, rendering this redundant on top of potentially being totally inaccurate.

haven't had much of an issue with that as long as I hide duplicates, require posts with images, and then click on the "owner" tab instead of the dealer tab, but I live in a pretty small city, so ymmv.

I mean I think I'd say it was more the result of poor preparation than anything. I think most places are saying he had like, 3 shots or somewhere around there, and apparently his rifle had no optic on it at all, which is kind of an insane idea at that distance. Which I think also maybe lends credence to the idea that this was just some impulse decision rather than a prepared kind of thing. I don't think it's that hard of a shot to make in general, even given the single opportunity that you're going to be working with, I've hit soda cans with .22s at similar ranges. You barely have to take into account windage or holdover and I haven't seen any evidence of heavy wind on the day of, really.

So, I dunno, I think it's probably just an idiot kid killing himself in like, some elaborate suicide by cop or something. or just a dumb groyper, jury's still out.

The actual incentive that they have should ideally be actual political activism that exercises some real and material form of leverage against their power. Seeing as these movements have all been totally deconstructed, mostly by the federal government, instead, you'll find that the way you're supposed to change the party is just by voting harder for them, and then just kind of hoping that they somehow naturally decide to swing left, after you've already handed them the keys to the kingdom. It's pure cope, basically.

no no, I think it's really that she wasn't horribly racist enough. really, it's that she didn't tack hard enough to the right. she should've promised to build two walls, one on canada too. she should've promised to kill the palestinians even faster, actually, she should've resurrected the corpse of kissinger and then sent him to michigan to explain why they needed to die. THAT will solve things.