I'm not sure if this happens in other states either, but I can't quite wrap my head around tens or hundreds of thousands of people voting for Trump, but then voting for a democrat over Trump candidate Kari Lake? How is that discrepancy in polling explained?

JD just had an interview with the New York times in which he refused to admit Trump lost the election in 2020 5 times in a row.

The question matters in regards to the general population ability to trust our election process. Trump's investigation team dug into the 2020 election and found little to no evidence of material that would discredit the election

They lost 63 court cases appealing the election results

My question is do you guys understand why this question is important. And if you are considering Trump does JD refusing to answer this question matter to you?

Both the NYT and Nate’s Silver Bulletin forecast a close race. In simulations there are solid likelihoods that if Harris wins, 270 or 276 may be the electoral outcome.

Of course, polling error of 3-4 percent greatly exceeds small bumps in polls.

I’m curious what happens after a close Harris win scenario if results are disputed.

Might it take until SCOTUS weighs in on specific electoral challenges? 2-3 rounds of hand counting ballots?

For example, Nate Silver’s forecast shows MI, WI, NV and gaining .8 to .9 towards Trump in polls but still potentially a Harris win.

At the same time the forecasted margin for must-win states for Trump like NC and Georgia are under 1 percent in Trump’s favor.

These results may all be delayed, likely challenged, and move through state and possibly SCOTUS elections and legal processes.

Source: substack paid subscription to the Silver Bulletin and NYT.

Donald Trump said he thinks U.S. troops should be deployed "if necessary" against "radical left lunatics" on election day.

Walz criticized former President Donald Trump's recent comments about the Midwest, particularly his views on manufacturing and cities like Detroit.

After Speaker Johnson said on Meet the Press he would certify a “free and fair” election, former Rep. Liz Cheney says she does not have faith Johnson would certify the results.

I see pundits occasionally refer to the fact that, despite Clinton leading in the polls, there were signs later on in the election season that she was on track to do poorly. Low voter enthusiasm, high number of undecideds, results in certain primaries, etc. But I also remember there being plenty of fanfare about early vote numbers and ballot returns showing positive signs that never materialized. In your opinion, what are some relevant warning signs that we saw in 2016, and are these factors any different for Harris this election?

The idea is that many people secretly vote for Trump but won't admit or discuss it with others (including pollsters) because they are afraid of being harassed or attacked.

TL;DR anecdotal "evidence" incoming so take this for the grain of salt it's worth:

I live on a light blue island in the middle of a deep red state. In 2016, there were almost zero Trump signs and his hardocre supporters seemed very much the random kooky outlier types. However, if you had conservative friends (of which I have many) and you were someone they didn't fear judgement from, they would usually quietly say tell you they were voting for him over Clinton. To me at least, this seems to represent the classic "silent" Trump supporters.

Fast forward to now and -at least in my suburban/rural part of the world- it seems as if the tables are totally flipped; people who support Harris keep their political views more to themselves or their social media echospheres largely because they're afraid of the (possibly violent) response they may elicit. At the same time, pro-Trump & anti-liberal bumper stickers, yard signs, and flags pepper T-shirts, vehicles, and front yards.

Is it different in large cities or other parts of the country? Do Trump supporters still tend to be more politically private? Or is that concept a thing of past?

A place for thoughtful, substantive discussion around political topics across the fediverse. Join/support our initative and feel free to contribute!

CNN’s Kaitlan Collins speaks with former Trump national security adviser John Bolton about former President Donald Trump’s remarks in Detroit, in which he bragged about his willingness to abandon NATO allies in the face of Russian aggression.

Storms Helene and Milton have triggered rise of misinformation stoked by Trump and fellow Republicans

The former president also made his debut on the campaign trail on behalf of the Democratic nominee.

Trump explained why fentanyl-related offenses should receive the death penalty when asked about his kids

We’re living in a second Gilded Age of extreme inequality. Kamala Harris’s campaign should strike a more populist note

Donald Trump drilled down on his racist, xenophobic vitriol during a rally.