How can democrat Ruben Gallego have a nearly 10-point lead in the polls over Trump-candidate Kari Lake for US Senate, and yet Trump is still favored to win Arizona? Are there *that* many people who lo
I'm not sure if this happens in other states either, but I can't quite wrap my head around tens or hundreds of thousands of people voting for Trump, but then voting for a democrat over Trump candidate Kari Lake? How is that discrepancy in polling explained?
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Kari Lake is a pretty big shit head over here and people know that. I still see her old campaign signs laying around, and her own "stolen election" bit didn't seem to garner her much pity. In short, she's not Him.
Trump is a pretty big shit head, too.
The GOP Senate leaked internal numbers on Arizona make a bit more sense than public polling in my opinion. They have the president race at 47/47 in Arizona and the senate race at 42/47. Though note that released/leaked internals usually are biased in favor of the person making them, so it's also a pretty bad set of numbers for the GOP. The president race could still go either way in Arizona, but just thought that was worth mentioning
https://static.politico.com/79/e9/eaf701084e77be9afaa85356e3b8/slf-october-memo.pdf