TIL about Benner's Cycle - a predictive pattern created by an Ohian farmer in 1872 that tried to predict economic boom and bust cycles between 1873 and 2059
For the most part the predicted market peaks and troughs are pretty accurate. This is more of a statistical analysis (using past numbers to predict future behavior) than a Nostradamus getting high and pulling predictions out of his ass.
But still, there's a degree of confirmation bias influencing the believers (and conversely instinctive skepticism affecting doubters) that come into okay.
Either way, I think it's an interesting tidbit from the past.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benner%27s_cycleOpen linkView original on lemmy.world
9 replies
certainly got 2026 wrong.
2008 too
But was bang on for 2019
which it should not be able to predict given its a plague.
I would say the banking crisis of 2019 right before COVID counts.
Are you sure about that? I don't really follow stock markets, but from the news I gather a lot of people are making a lot of money. Mostly from inside trading, but the cycle says nothing about ethics.
yeah I was kinda thinking about that. does not necessarily say healthy market.
I think most of the models work well as long everyone believes in them and nobody tries to exploit them.
The pig cycle? That's what I learned it was called.