People are making wildfire bets on prediction markets. Experts say it could lead to disaster
https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/17/climate/betting-wildfires-polymarket-prediction-market-platformsOpen linkView original on lemmy.worldSyndicated from the fediverse. Read and engage on the original instance.
View original on lemmy.worldhttps://www.cnn.com/2026/07/17/climate/betting-wildfires-polymarket-prediction-market-platformsOpen linkView original on lemmy.world
22 replies
prediction markets used to be illegal, and should be once again. anyone betting on tragedy like this should be banned from any form of gambling that is allowed
but nothing will happen because the system is corrupt and people are garbage
I mean, betting apps are banned every so often precisely because of this. I don't know how they come back to life like nothing ever happened, but I think this is the third or fourth iteration of them.
The first iteration was killed when they allowed betting on terror attacks. The "logic" was that people with knowledge would bet on the next attack (this was after 9/11) making preparations easier. Just like in the cases of wildfires, though, allowing people to be on an outcomes gives them an incentive to effect it. Buy matches, bet on wildfire.
Strike that. Reverse it.
Wouldn't they just move onto the dark web?
better than fully sanctioned and advertised everywhere you go. They have gambling website and prediction markets hosting news/sports segments, its everywhere.
Making it run back to backroom dealings is a massive step forward
If it's really impossible to prevent people from gambling on wildfires and from creating financial incentives to start them, then I would strongly prefer that it at least be relegated to the furthest fringes of society possible.
If I hear anyone mention that they participate on these markets, I instantly look down on them. Fucking pathetic garbage. You want to make money? Do some fucking work. Contribute to society in some way. Betting on whether a wild fire will consume a town, or a school will be bombed, or a country toppled, makes someone a irredeemable piece of shit.
Honestly, the whole goddamned stock market should be razed to the ground, salted earth. Workers need to be the ones in control of the companies, not those who think money is what can buy power and control. It all serves to funnel paper up to the capitalists who control it all. How are prediction markets any different? Burn it all down.
Occupy Wall Street should've been the start of burning it all down.
Other factions were too busy trying to push their own ideas into the movement, and it became this generic mess that didn't inspire anything. Nobody really knew what it stood for.
And with the attitude of the group, there was no "burning" anything down.
I used one to bet on a football game when they first came out, but all the non-sports things to gamble on gave me the ick pretty fast. I’m not even a big gambler but if I decide to add some extra spice to a game i plan to watch in the future I’m just going to a sports book, casinos are scummy as hell but for the most part gaming regulations are followed on at least a surface level and you can’t win money on the purposeful suffering of other people or something equally tragic. Or you couldnt last I checked
The ubiquity of gambling culture is killing sports too, which is also much less of a danger but speaks to how when completely unchecked it will ruin everything. I don’t know too many fans of any sport that don’t at least kinda think things are so out of hand it’s calling the legitimacy of the game into question
Into question? lol that ship sailed years ago. It’s all as fake as reality tv now.
Tbf a big portion of the stock market - ie oil and arms industry investments - has been "betting whether a school will be bombed or a country toppled" for a long time. This is just a more mask-off version of what America has always been.
Which I don't say to defend it. Exactly the opposite.
Yup. Assholes could make a prediction and then start a fire.
Which is why these types of markets have to be illegal in any civilized society.
Makes arson a pretty lucrative activity. This betting on tragedy shit is peak gilded age disaster brewing.
Okay calm down everybody, they clearly have it stated in their terms and conditions that you're not allowed to bet on fires you started. Nothing to worry about here.
Wish you'd told me that about an hour ago. What a senseless tragedy now.
No shit,
Sherlockexperts.Prediction betting sucks, but this kind of disaster prediction is disgusting.
How is this even legal. Seems so obvious.
They're not markets.
"Hey commander, let this village burn and let's save this one, I got my entire life savings riding on this"
Yeah this will end well...
What do you mean "could?"