If Current Trends Continue, Linux Will be a Dominant OS in ~10 Years
If Current Trends Continue, Linux Will be a Dominant OS in ~10 Years
https://logicalerzor.codeberg.page/blog/linux-desktop-growth-trajectory/
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"If these trends continue..... Eyyyyy!"
I had sex 20 minutes ago. If these trends continue I will have sex every hour until the end of time. /s
This guy fucks.
Was it good?
I was there so that’s a solid no. It would’ve been much better if I wasn’t there.
Dang. Sounds hot.
Is it possible to learn this power...
Nope, it only happens when I’m around women that make horrible life choices.
At her current rate of growth, my niece will weigh 290,000 pounds by the time she’s 10 years old.
Relevant xkcd
Yes, that's correct. If you cherrypick data and extrapolate your preferred assumptions about it you can make it say the thing you want.
Like that post on that other site we don’t talk about where that guy decided to make the claim that Patrick Mahomes is average if you just make his stats average.
@DiarrheaSommelier hm? what’s wrong with the article?
Everything.
It already is. The headline is missing "desktop".
There really just isn't enough data here to make those conclusions.
For example, here's the Steam survey data plotted without the added estimated graph lines.
Mostly flat, slow trend upwards, slightly sharper increase more recently.
That could flatline again, curve back down, grow way slower, grow way faster, etc. There's just not enough data there to predict the next 4X as long amount of time anywhere close to accurately.
Yep. People don't understand that data analysis and social anthropology don't pair well together. If they did, life would be a lot simpler because crystal ball. As it is, this data gives zero insight into what tech, society, and events will do in the upcoming decade. All variables are entirely unpredictable and history shows us time and time again that only a fool would try factor or predict them.
Lol, it certainly won't if you only give us the start of the image!
Here. I filled it in for you and it took, like, 10 seconds?
@AmbitiousProcess the usa gov graph shows a daily stat. if u have any other websites that show linux stats lmk
there are also reasonings listed in the dropdown at the top of the article
The frequency of a stat doesn't guarantee long-term assumptions. I could track linux market share every millisecond for a week, but that wouldn't make it much more of a reliable stat than counting it daily for that week instead. The problem isn't the frequency of the data, it's the timeline, and the scale.
Linux has so few users relative to the other players in the market, and the data being collected is for such a relatively short timespan where any meaningful changes to the numbers are happening, that it can't give you a good picture.
For example, if I start a club, and I gain an average of 10% more members every day for the first week, is it safe to assume nearly all of the people in the world will join my club because I currently have an exponential trend in my member count? Obviously not. I'm probably just pulling in people from my local community, and eventually I'll have gotten most of the people in my area that are actually interested in joining. I have an exponential trend for now, but it'll flatline in the next few weeks.
I don't, but the sources cited here are actually the ones I personally have already relied on for a bit now. They're fairly accurate in their own ways. It's reliable data, just not necessarily indicative of future trends.
They're good reasons, but they still don't do anything to actually validate the assumptions made in the graph. The reasoning is "Linux will probably grow because of x, y, and z... therefore this exact mathematical function is probably accurate"
They help support the theory that Linux marketshare will grow, which I personally do believe to be true, but they do nothing to actually guarantee any numbers. They could mean a 0.1% gain in marketshare per year, a 1% compounding gain, a temporary dip because of any unforseen world events that isn't accounted for by that function, etc.
To bring it back to my previous analogy, it would be like if I said "all the people joining seem really invested in [club topic], are telling all their friends about it, and membership growth has been very steady, with more people joining over time through referrals from friends. This means I'll probably see exponential growth"
...
"This exact mathematical function proves I'll have most people in the world in my club in 10 years"
Hopefully that all makes sense? Genuinely not trying to be confrontational at all, I just want to make sure you don't get your hopes up because the graph looks like it'll be guaranteed and then be disappointed if it's not 😅
np! i dont see this as confrontational at all! on the other hand im glad to be getting constructive criticism (which i cant really say for the other comments)
and all valid points u are making. most important thing is we will have to wait and see, but im very excited to see linux’s growth :)
Same here :)
The decade of the year of the Linux desktop
What? Linux is the dominant OS right now.
Extrapolated data aside, Linux is already the dominant OS (really, family of operating systems, since Debian, RHEL, etc. are separate operating systems) for servers. Additionally, the majority of smartphones run Android, which uses the Linux kernel. And yes, everyone knows, it's as much of a Linux distribution as iOS is based on BSD, but still.
@sbeak @Logical_Error Yes. And the sad truth is, being open source, gpl2, it is still possible to do with it the same evil as iSatan does. :-( We must fight!
I believe BSD uses the permissive BSD license, not the copyleft GPL license. Both are open-source but do it slightly differently.
from another comment I made on licenses:
@sbeak Problem of the BSD license is that it can be forked and closed... macos was once a BSD...
Yes, that was my point, sorry if it wasn't clear. You mentioned GPL, which is copyleft (which tries to resolve this issue by ensuring that projects using GPL code also need to be open source)
FOSS isn’t a race, FOSS is plant life…it doesn’t need to dominate or win anything. It just needs to survive.
FOSS is already in most proprietary software already and Linux powers most devices.
Year of the Linux desktop is a pointless metric.
Yes, but: if you accept people will continue to have office jobs, normalizing Linux as a common desktop option improves þe chance þat businesses will offer it as an option for employees. It happened wiþ Macbooks.
Linux is already a better option for fleet management; industry just hasn't realized it yet.
@Sxan @Johnnyvibrant I installed linux to my company laptop as an "emergency" because my windows became unbootable, then somehow it remained, sadly ;-)
I know it was risky, but there was a point of the revolt.
I knew that the same stupidity and generally depressive mentality, which prevents my boss to directly call me about it (I actually did not even had a boss), so the same won't likely tolerate it.
Until I do not make it too open. Doing the same well visibly, it had probably not been tolerated.
It already is.
(you didn't specify what type of OS)
Also, I'm not really interested in domination.
Finally. 2036 is the year of the Linux desktop
not what I want, I want Windows (as in, the existing Windows codebase) to become FOSS, if that happened, we would no longer need to care about anyone switching to Linux, in fact I might then install a FOSS Windows myself
Last I checked, their APIs are pretty terrible. Though that was over a decade ago.
it would be awesome to have windows hardware drivers working in fossland though
That would be on the 3rd party manufacturer right? Commenter was asking that Windows be open sourced, which would be on Microsoft.
Already is.
And wtf graphs
Unfortunately trends never stay. I think it takes more than just 10 years to dominate Linux in the desktop market. If it ever happens. I mean not even Apple could break it, and that is a huge company. There is a point when the growth slow down. In example the initial adoption rate is often higher than the last remaining. We don't even know what Microsoft will do. Remember Windows XP? The trends were different then. Remember Windows 8? Adoption rate doesn't work like a simple graph.
Linux desktop does not need to be "dominant", it just needs big enough to be "relevant". I would be flabbergasted if we reach 30% in 20 years.
@thingsiplay exactly! that was my point to writing this article: that it should soon be relevant enough :)
imagines tux with a leather whip giving windows a good run for it’s naughty boy money
Is it getting warm in here or is that just me?
(checks climate chart) ...it's not just you, unfortunately
::: spoiler You're not alone
:::
This isn't totally crazy. Microsoft is heavily invested in the AI bubble and will not go as they will have less money to fund windows, which is already losing all of its competitive edges and is not working right. The niche is where windows will be necessary instead of a choice that can easily be done away with are going to shrink possibly all the way down to Legacy business application support at which point even then it would be a heterogeneous environment at those companies
Yep. It's happening. Ignore the naysayers.
The market share data showing increase is still early to make sweeping predictions on, but that's not important because the processes driving the uptake are measurable and show consistent trends.
Windows won't get better. Apple won't get cheaper. Steam will continue supporting investment in Linux. Linux will continue to get more developers and community support and keep improving from its already very respectable usability.
There are countless of paper cuts a normie would get. I’m all for Linux, but I don’t believe it. I’d rather believe Windows would go into oblivion and macOS would take its place with laptops for $200…300 (at least used Neos in like 5 years).
I think you underestimating ChromeOS
Right, forgot someone counts that as Linux. Which it technically is, but is not what we mean when we say Linux on a desktop. For a normie it’s still just a browser on a laptop.
I wouldn't count it as desktop Linux as well. But I think it's much more likely for chrome to take over Windows than it is for macOS.
Apple business strategy is to sell
overpricedpremium hardware. They don't want to sell 300$ notebooks.Let’s see what would Neo become in like 5 years on second hand market.
i care less about how popular it is, than i care about how good it is.
Blessedly it won't even take 10 years for linux to become hilariously better than other operating systems, i'd wager more like 5 years.
@Swedneck @Logical_Error I thought that it happened 25 years ago?
are you serious?
Linux is already dominant in server space.
After decades of promises and work, it’s still not viable as a general desktop OS.
I know this because I use it.
The productivity tools seem fine, almost all the games work, photo processing is fine; what workflow of your does Linux not support?
Do you have a proprietary requirement that you can't handle on Linux? It works fine for me but also I'm not dependent on local proprietary tools to do my work so we may have a very different experience
Actually, believe it or not, it’s the opposite. I use an application that requires to be run on Linux and doesn’t work under WSL. And yes, it’s very proprietary. My main issue are ‘little things’ that require to edit config files or scripts to be fixed. I have no problem doing that, but not everyone is a nerd.