This is why I keep telling people we are fucked by focusing in increasing military power in europe even if it appears and is obviously needed. We are going to put all the power at the hands of insane lunatics ready to wage war and put people in ovens.
It's happening in all countries in Europe. I think in mine we'll have elections next month or something like that and the extreme right is at 2nd or 3rd position ready to take first or will join hands with another to win. It was so close already last time. No matter how many crimes all their members do and show up in the news every week.
It's what the people want. Most people everywhere are ok and want homicidal narcissist and sociopathic people in charge of them.
They don't even need to win elections, everyone was already discussing immigration because of propaganda & news (Messerattacke). They have set the agenda, this now is just more evidence of their success.
Did you not realize that they performed incredibly well in the elections? Social media is how they will overthrow the last remaining democracies. France, UK and Canada are next. All the young folks are increasingly more conservative and within 2-6 years, it's going to be game over.
We really should stop using the term "conservative" for what the self proclaimed "conservative" parties are doing. Because they don't conserve anything. They do the exact opposite. They exploit and destroy.
I don't disagree, but when one part of society uses word A and the other part uses word B that would only further increase polarization, which already is a serious problem. I think it'd be better it we continue using the name they use for themselves, but point out what a weird name it is for them. So we could tell them for example that we find it strange they consider themselves "conservative" parties because they don't conserve anything. They do the exact opposite. They exploit and destroy.
The problem is that more simple minded people who are actually conservative, as they want to conserve society as it is, will easily fall for the propaganda and vote for a party that is out to destroy what they want to conserve.
The self proclaimed standing of a party is part of its propaganda. Unfortunately the media are complicit with the parties on perpetuating their propaganda, by calling parties by their chosen adjectives, rather than by what would be more fitting. Conservatives should rather be called "Destructives", and in many countries, "Social Democrats" are rather Neoliberals, for they have long sold out social democracy to the highest bidder and now follow an extremist free market ideology, their only remaining difference to the "Conservatives" being not wanting to return to societal norms from 60 years ago.
Populist intentionally choose words that attract potential voters, they will continue to do that. But calling them out for not being real conservatives because they act different is definitely helpful.
The problem is that more simple minded people who are actually conservative, as they want to conserve society as it is, will easily fall for the propaganda and vote for a party that is out to destroy what they want to conserve.
The real problem is that "conserve society as it is" was always a lie, unless the "as it is" you're talking about happened to be monarchy. Conservatism, as an ideology, was founded in support of monarchism. A society run by an aristocratic elite has always been the thing they're trying to conserve.
It's not a new term, it has been around for a few centuries now. People who want to revert change, go back to the perceived good old times. Fascist is overused these days, and I'd argue reactionary hits a nice descriptive middle ground between conservative (which they are not, any more) and fascist (which many of them aren't yet). Hit them where they are, not where they move to
I do agree with and appreciate the nuance, it's clear from your careful wording you understand conservatism by definition doesn't have a cause to stand for, hence reactionary. It's apt in a good faith discussion.
My problem is supplying ammunition for bad faith discussion. Like what "libertarians" are to conservatives. They'll claim they're not conservatives, they're just libertarians. All the while supporting the same goals with a different name.
Not sure why you're getting downvoted, maybe people just don't like to hear it. You're not wrong.
To add, these people generally have more kids, and raise them to be conservative. It's depressing. It might take some severe hardship on people to shift left again? Not sure what that is, hopefully not another world War.
The shift left is not happening until theres a major (most likely violent) crisis. As it is, America will become Russia 2.0 and this will probably be the staus quo for a while.
Just looking at the people around me (mostly colleagues, I'm not friends with this kind of people) it's no surprise, when just about anything triggers them to vote AfD. Some actual examples:
"We have a vegetarian day at the cafeteria now. Stupid Greens forcing me to not eat meat one day a week. I'm going to vote AfD next election."
"They built a new bicycle lane on my way to work. Now I'm forced to stick to the speed limit because of all the bicyclists on MY road blocking me. It's a straight street, I should be able to go 80 even though it's inner city. I've always been going 80 there! Stupid Greens, I'm going to vote AfD next election."
"Supplier X stopped issuing their bikini model calendar. Everything is forbidden nowadays! Noone ever cared for bikini model calenders, but the Greens want to forbid every little piece of fun. Stupid woke culture. I'm going to vote AfD."
And let's not forget that one boss who told me that my life-threatening nut allergy was woke nonsense, because back in his day "everybody just ate what's on the table and noone died, but nowadays everybody has to feel special by making up things they won't eat."
They just want to go back to 1950s culture, when gay people, trans people, allergies, ADHD, autism, veganism, climate change and anything other than straight white dudes and straight white housewives "didn't exist", because how dare the world be more complex than a Rosamunde Pilcher movie.
You know what the worst thing is? He wasn't the only one by far. Later at a different company another Teamleader told me I have to go out to eat with everybody. When I said the restaurant isn't save for me (lots of nuts on the menu), he just said I HAVE to come and that's what the Epipen is there for. I complained to HR and the HR lady asked why I don't just do a therapy against allergies. Told me about some esoteric bullshit that's supposed to cure all allergies and advised me to do that so I can better fit in with the company culture.
Well, to bring some darker thoughts to the topic: Most fascist movements are also very, very inclined on their interpretation of darwinism, so... "weak" people dying off may for them be more a feature than a bug
Plus two percent, a difference of one percent to second place and an error margin of two point five percent. Congrats.
Besides that, I really start to hate these reports. Weekly updates on the Sonntagsfrage are utterly lacking substance, fearmongering (to left leaning people) and reassurance (to AfD voters). Everything we do not need.
About a election in 4 years? Not really. At least not yet. This isn‘t news worthy in my opinion because it doesn‘t tell you anything about what the country will look like in 4 years.
If the current government is even willing and able to serve their term to its end (the previous one didn't), and actually improve the situation enough so people stop running after some rat catchers with a simple lie as the supposed solution.
Socially, the Greens stand exactly where the "Social Democrats" stand. They co-authored the unprecedented social cutbacks of the Schröder era, which brought Germany where it is today. They are a party of privileged academics who are fine with easing their ecological conscience on the backs of people with lower income. And the Left still has Putin bootlicker vibes (they call it "peace"), even though the worst Putin bootlickers left them to form their own party.
As I said: opposition is always a chance to rethink your position and get a sharper profile. The Left is moving in a good direction after the breakup. Parties are huge constructs that need sone time to change. My hope is that the Greens will be pulled to the left as well.
The Greens only just sold out their core audience of environmentalists to the coal lobby during their term in government. On state level, during the energy crisis, one of their big wigs (namely the prime minister of Baden-Württemberg) recommended people too poor to afford energy to just go and buy a heat pump, or to use a washcloth instead of taking a shower. If a party tolerates people with such a "let them eat cake" attitude in an influential position, it won't go back to a "sharper profile" in the social area any time soon.
The Left keeps persistently and adamantly confusing servile submission to force with peace. Even after the breakup.
The Greens will be pulled to the left in the same way they have been "pulled to the left" in the previous few decades. They'll present some rainbow coloured pseudo leftist folklore before the next election only to keep selling out the lower classes if they happen to score a win.
I'm not calming down. This dumb shit happens just far too often lately. I have no idea, why people insinuate things others never said and burn that strawman down, but I'm getting too tired and more and more pissed off by it, to the point where I wonder if it's even worth it or I should rather stop discussing.
You should stop discussing because what you call a straw man is a perfectly reasonable interpretation of your comment. If you don't want it to be open to interpretation, you should be more clear, rather than get mad at people taking one of the reasonable interpretations. An additional sentence at the end of that comment like "That said, the left should be worried." would likely have been enough.
You can be against news fearmongering a certain group and also believe the fear this group has is valid. In this case, the leftist could for example be already worried by the actual situation and not because of the fearmongering.
No for fucks sake. Fearmongering is the irrational exaggeration of a worrisome situation to a degree that incites fear (hence the term fearmongering) and panic.
RTL and their head is more than just "right leaning"
Remember the call? "We have to do everything in our power to destroy the greens and spd. Help the FDP and our other ally"
Springer is such a huge problem. No one would be remorsed if the entire springer empire got sucked up by a black hole
AfD is using fascist manipulation using propaganda (always putting immigrants and immigrant attacks in the spotlight) to gain power and discriminate immigrants even more, causing more retaliation which in turn makes people give the AfD even more power.
In a tolerant society we should not be tolerant of such intolerance.
I'm an American. I really hope the German masses can learn this lesson before it"s too late.
But you guys need to counter the hateful messaging against immigrants with an equally effective message against the people with power/money, otherwise, fascism is likely to win in the long run against neoliberalism, as we just saw in America after our long-term experiment with neoliberalism, which really kicked off in the 1980s with Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher.
In the 1990s, the American Democrats felt so defeated after having lost big time to Reagan and Bush Sr., so Bill Clinton decided the Democrats cannot "unilatterally disarm" and must start taking corporate money. This acceptance of corporate money led to their idiology becoming the same as Reagan's idiology, and then the Republican party being bith opportunists and contrarians, took advantage of that situation by shifting further and further right (see: the ratchet effect), until they openly became fascists.
I'm not too familiar with German politics, but if anything I said applies, then heed my warning.
But you guys need to counter the hateful messaging against immigrants with an equally effective message against the people with power/money, otherwise, fascism is likely to win in the long run against neoliberalism [...]
This is exactly it. However, I am not too optimistic about centrist politicians/media/society coming to that conclusion. We are complacent and scared and would rather keep our heads in the sand and blame minorities instead of addressing the underlying structural issues.
And stil the state refuses to ban them, refuses to arrest and sentence their leaders.
It will be Weimar 2.0 with liberals being either too incompetent or too unwilling to stop fascism.
Fascism is not stopped at the podium or in parliament. It is stopped with bullets and bombs. The longer you wait the more bullets and bombs it will take and the more lives it will cost. We need a new, this time thorough, denazification.
in most contexts here ive heard "liberal" used to describe neoliberalism rather then leftism or libertarianism (though I know many conservatives in the US use it as a catch all for the left)
I'm American and I use the term "liberal" specifically to refer to neoliberals. I'm probably in the minority, though, especially given Fox News and GamerGate calling everything they don't like "liberal".
I think it's enough to just do: arrests of leaders (and banning them from public speaking but for life) + breaking up the party + outlawing the party + banning people who decide to take up the mantle of/act as a declared proxy for the party and attempt to visibly pick up where they left off.
That last one I learned from my own country''s current situation: in Romania, a crazy far right candidate came out of nowhere (on the wings of illegal undisclosed campaign donations) to win the first round, and as soon as that happened our mainstream far right party's candidate started supporting him. Then they canceled the election because of the undisclosed donations (he literally declared 0 campaign spending!) so now, in the redo of the election, this other guy is basically running as his proxy and will likely try to appoint him PM if he wins.
Ideally arrests and executions will be enough. I think letting fascists live out their lives in prison is too dangerous. Too many political enemies have been released historically after government changes. Hitler himself didn't even have to serve for life and was released early.
Weimar was a small civil war between soldiers who returned from WW1. That's why both the left and the right had fighters. Where should the fighters who shoot the bullets come from now?
The fascists came to power because the elite feared that the communists could win. Otherwise, despite massive manipulation, the fascists never got an absolute majority.
There are many issues that other parties simply ignore. There would be far less voteres for the AfD if the other parties would listen. The AfD started with the demand that the rules about euro stability shouldn't be ignored. That's not a fascist position.
Unfortunately, the other parties are very well taking up the Nazis' lies. The Nazis are playing the political establishment like a fiddle.
To stick with your example of the potato sack, the established parties do just jump the Nazi bandwagon and parrot their narrative in a less extreme manner, like "Illegal immigrants kicking over potato sacks is a severe problem, we need to protect our potato sacks by border controls and increased deportations."
Just as one AfD politician remarked last year, (after the election in Thuringia, if I recall right) the AfD is ruling without actually being in the government.
I think the problem can be summed up as poll driven politics.
It's a feedback loop, they do focus on a topic some opinion poll has shown to be somewhat popular, the resulting exposure increases popularity, which reflects in the polls, which leads to increased political focus on the topic...
In America at least, this is as a direct result of corporate media and money in politics both controlling the narrative. None of this was naturally occurring.
Not that different in Germany. The biggest difference in the media landscape, the pretty large public broadcasters aren't really a difference, because their governing bodies and leadership positions are stuffed with (ex) politicians and their relatives.
But it isn't false. They are literal nazis and say literal nazi things.
Several offices for the protection of the constitution of the German Länder (they are a kind of anti-extremist intelligence services, in case you don't know) have found them to be "assuredly right-wing-extremists", which is the worst possible classification the law recognises.
No it wouldn't, it would make you smart enough to speak to the fascists in the only language they understand. Words don't work against fascists because they don't care what words mean. Better to defend yourself now while you still can.
Yes, he's great data scientist. He has more stuff on his webpage, e.g. bias analysis of the different polling institutes, be sure to check it out if you like!
More like the decline of CDU is directly proportional to rise in AfD. Could be a number of reasons, such as alienating fringe voters on singular issues such as defense or trans, or it could be that CDU officials don't show the same animosity towards far right that they used to have.
The government is incompetent and the Nazis are playing them like a fiddle by setting the public agenda aided by incompetent and complicit media. (That the Nazis' economic agenda, more money for the rich, isn't all that differnet from that of the established parties helps with this, because this renders them unable of countering the Nazis' lies about foreigners being to blame for the economic hardships of the masses without harming themselves)
The government consists of greedy, power hungry bastards who think they can use the Nazis to their advantage. (Some lie to themselves that they can steal votes from them by parroting their rhetoric, some use the spectre of cooperating with the Nazis to pressure other parties into cooperation with them instead)
The government consists of opportunistic cowards who are afraid of angering the Nazi voters and/or losing the court case for a ban of the Nazi party.
Don’t forget about Russia. It is already there and leading in its effort to turn some countries into the same political system, making thereby these countries their puppets aka satellites.
Mass immigration into a housing shortage in order to push down wages, artificially invert the Phillips curve, and prop up housing prices will as well. I assume rising support for the afd is mostly the young.
Ive really been trying but every time theres a worse quagmire of information to wade through. "Like literal Trump fans. Jews own everything. Democracy is cool and all but really... sometimes we need other measures."
Theres just no way to talk back. Or even interact when in comes to politics.
Take care of the nazi problem before they take care of you. You already know how that works. Stop allowing them to broadcast nazi propaganda as if it was news.
True, it's a long time until the next UK general election. Maybe Reform's vote will suffer before then. Alternatively the local elections and by-elections could be a boost for them, I dunno.
Anyway, maybe we should have proportional representation in the UK. Even if Reform had 25% of the vote and therefore 25% of the seats in parliament, that would mean that 75% of parliamentarians wouldn't be Reform members.
Our current system allows a party with minority support (potentially Reform in the future) to win a majority of parliamentary seats. In 2019, the Conservatives won 44% of the vote, which gave them 56% of seats. Last year, Labour won 34% of the vote, which gave them 63% of seats.
No surprise considering CDU/CSU fucking up shit for the broad population from day one. They even suggested a 1000€ deductible for the health insurance.
Shit, in the US a $1000 deductible is what you get with pretty good insurance
US is not my standard when it comes to healthcare.
Everyone in germany pays 14% of his income as health insurance, you do not have a choice (except for a few people), there is a MASSIVE amount of money in the system. It's just wasted left and right, so introducing a deductible is just the dumbest thing ever.
Everybody in Germany. Please talk to family members that you don't talk to about how this is dangerous to you. I know I have these in my family that I should invest in instead of always talking to the closest ones. Also make sure to beat them with genuine questions that break open their confidence in the reasoning with the socratic way (epistemology)
What? Belief.
Why? Reason
How? Method for Proof
Or
Identify Persuasion
Question "What is it actually", definition
--In between ask for scale 1-10 how confident into the topic are you and importance queries
Why do you believe that?
How could one determine whether this is really true?
--In between the scale and importance queries
Best argument for and strongest argument against?
Reflect, i.e. repeat what has been said in your own words
eighthly
It's not about being well versed in the topic of conversation
But good questions
The best strategy is to engage in genuine conversations.
Most people just label the unknowledgable as stupid and attempt to desperately convince them with a bombardment of facts and counter-arguments. Even worse is just calling them "Nazi" and leave it at that. This is futile with some people who have gone down too deep into the hate-train of social media. They will immediately mentally blockade what you're saying and the cycle continues.
It's way more effective to get into a friendly conversation and actually engage with what they are saying. Listen. Ask questions. Listen. Ask questions. Understand why they believe what they believe. Be open to their arguments, however rediculous you might find them.
The most important thing you need to realize that it's not their fault and they are not stupid! They are just the output of their environment. Everyone has emotions. And everyone deals with them differently. Everyone has their environment. And everyone sources their information from that environment. Everyone has parts of their lives where they are misinformed or less educated than an expert in the field. You too! Consequently, the way to change someone's belief is to change their environment while understanding their emotional basis.
and everyone is at a different stage in their life. If i'd have to talk to 10-years-ago-me I wouldnt agree with them in beliefs that are still held today pretty commonly
Germany should have actually denazified instead of the joke they did. Also should have reunited the two germanys instead of what happened which was basically a west German conquest of east Germany contributing greatly to its impoverershment.
Think about it like this: What do you do if everyone is at least complicit?
While the soviets excluded the old elites from their new regime, the west focused more on reintegrating them. That being said, both sides were willing to turn a blind eye if you where qualified enough and needed for the continued function of society.
So for example the head of the neurological society was a doctor who experimented on brains of executed prisoners and children. And unfortunately this was the rule, not the exception.
The fact that it didn't happen? That a lot of the very few who got actual sentences (less than those who worked just at Auschwitz)were pardoned before their time was up. That all levels of the post war German government was filled with nazi party members. That it was quickly abandoned even in the limited and performative form it existed it to unite to fight "the communist threat". I don't need a historical example of a successful de radicalization in order to say this one didn't happen and its a myth it did.
Ok I get what you mean. But what was the realistic alternative when (like another poster mentioned) everyone is partly complicit and society has to be rebuilt? Who can the chief surgeon of the hospital be replaced with? Everyone professionally competent in any position of esteem has to have been at least partially complicit or compliant with the previous regime. Historical context is important because I think it is a near impossible task. Pol pot killed everyone, de-Baathification created more of a mess (both efforts to weed things out later, presumably using Germany as a bad example).
The so called Schreibtisch Nazis werent punished eventhough they were just as part of the holocaust, helping it moving and working, as the once not in an office.
East germany, did it even worse imo. The soviets recruited not just scientists and some spies. They recruited Gestapo and SS members, helped them shred their past and unpunished recruited them for the SaSi.
Also not teaching it "our people did this and we have to make sure it doesnt happen again" but "we were the victims and didnt have anything to do with the nazis"
And then add a butchered integration. Butchering and slaughtering the rest of wealth from east germany in the 90s. Fertal ground for those types of idiological spreaders that came from the west. And now we see their flower bloom...
And ugly smelling brown rotting rotfruit
It's baffling how those self proclaimed patriots can celebrate a bunch of traitors who ruined their country by killing off a significant part of its population and starting an unwinnable war that left the country in ruins.
Who is going to fight them this time? The US and the UK are heading down the same path with the US far out in the lead and Russia is already an authoritarian state. France and Canada aren't enough to stand up against this wave of naziism.
For what‘s worth it doesn‘t actually matter what potential voters would vote for each and every week when the next election is almost 4 years away. If anything, bold headlines like these only act as a self fulfilling prophecy and are blatant populism. Even a good government can‘t be super popular every single week and the sooner people realize that, the better for democracy. Though I won‘t hold my breath.
Many of those aren't real votes but "protest" support. Very dumb imo. They're hoping its a wakeup to the other parties but it really just emboldens the afd.
Please look at the US and what's happening here right now.
A significant portion of Trump's voters in 2016 were protest anti-establishment voters and they've been converted into full on Fascist voters in the 8 years since then.
Nah I don't buy it. Nazis voting for nazis know what they are doing. AfDs plan is clear, like project 2025 was and their voters like what they see and should be treated and handled accordingly.
Okay well in German and I know some of these idiots. It's true. Of course some are literally Nazis. You see the same thing in the US as well. Don't take my reply as defending these people.
Yes. That's a usual number for representative polling. Sometimes, they ask 1.000, sometimes 2.000. The other German polling institutes are doing the same.
You can of course criticize that, but Forsa exists since 1984 and they are not known for publishing unrealistic polls. The polls are not the problem here. The people turning off their brains and voting for the far right are the problem.
They could, for example, ask for demographic information of the sampled population and weight that to the general population (let's say that 50% of the people who answered are males from 70+; but they just represent 10% of the general population, then that answers are weighted to represent only 10% of the final results).
That's how statistics works. You take a sample and interpret the reality based on that sample. When you get a blood exam, you don't need to check all the blood, you take a sample and based on that get a result.
We don't know how good AFD would be at doing, what they claim. But none of the parties who have been in power over the last 20-30 years have done anything significant to improve the average workers economic status (e.g. make housing affordable, guarantee a reasonable pension, lessen the fear of unemployment, etc.). AFD claims, "if we get rid of the immigrants, everything will be better again" and people are believing it.
As a crimson lining, I hope the United State's decay will teach Germany to destroy the AfD and all other right wingers. They are a poison to civilization.
Hopefully yes.
But not very likely as the cdU/csU are getting more and more open to cooperate with the afd.
I'm afraid we are in the last legaslative term without an afd-ridden coalition.
I want to give oen example of how people on the fence can up on the wrong side, radicalized if you will. For the record I’m as far left as I can get. I support a lof of humanitarian causes and respect the decisions of others, particularly in sexuality or individual personal definitions. Be what you want, do what you want, be good, be fair. It’s easier than being rotten.
I’m only a resident of Germany, so every two years I need to renew my residency card, the Awshfksoyngelelemdn, or whatever that alphabet soup is called. I began the process 3 months before I was set to expire (Nov 2024). Surely, that would be enough time to get shit done at a rathaus that refuses to do any of this online. Oof, so wrong. JULY was the first appointment they would give me. My residency expired in April. No problem, they said. I can still live here since I made the appointment, just don’t leave Germany. I must leave Germany as that’s my job and why they moved me here from the US years back.
I begged to understand why the wait times are so long and the answer I got, from the rathaus, was that refugees from Syria and Palestine have been given the opportunity to migrate to my town and their processing is a priority. The only way I can get around that, to get an earlier appointment, would be to stand in the line when they open at 7:30am-12:00pm, M-F. I went there at 7am and the line wrapped around the block. I asked the person in the front of the line what time they got there. 4am.
I came back another day, at 4am, and got shit done, but that’s a huge brick in the wall for people already pissed they have to share with the lesser fortunate. I sucked it up. I get what they’re doing. But when Germans see just how poorly this is all being managed, they start listening to the assholes that promise to fix that… at all costs.
It’s a fkn drag. I had much higher hopes for Germany when I moved here, but now I’m left wondering what my next move is going to be. I refuse to be ruled by racist idiots. It’s a big reason behind why I happily left the US. Only hope will be that everyone sees the US administration tripping over their own dicks and come to their senses, but I’ve really lost faith after the 2024 election cycle.
It's really tiring how all-or-nothing political parties like to be. Your choices are:
· Help everyone, thus straining our resources thin and barely helping anyone
· Fucking kill anyone who so much looks at us
I personally think "help yourself first so you can help others better". How are you expected to take care of humanitarian issues when your own country is unraveled? You're having your own humanitarian issue!
It's mostly East Germany. Communism's fuckups in that area are still causing suffering today. I suppose West can be blamed for failing to integrate the east properly.
Unfortunately, that's not the only reason. We have 16 Bundesländer (states). 5 of them are in the East. But they have hardly more inhabitants than Bavaria. So a lot of us in the "Real Germany" (the western states) are voting those AHs too.
its a few factors in play, one is the normalization of far-right policies by the other big parties (SPD, Greens, Union) and their inability to fix the damage caused by the financial crisis of 2008, the rise of anti-migrant beliefs in the german working class, and a few others
i think this video explains well the rise of the AfD in germany, at this point its only a matter of time until one or more parties decide to make a coalition with the AfD
nd their inability to fix the damage caused by the financial crisis of 2008
That's absolutely not it. Germany went through the crisis of 2008 like a breeze. In 2015 during the refugee crisis, Merkel decided to open our borders to all of the refugees. Before that, the AfD had below 10% of the voters on their side. But a huge chunk of the population did not agree to Merkel's refugee policies. That's when the AfD took off. And now we can't get rif of them 😒
If you ask the AfD-Fanboys, most are probably going to say that they are not racist, that there are just too many refugees in the country and the other parties aren't doing anything about it. The AfD, meanwhile, is blaming all og the problems on the "left parties" and illegal immigrants.
But yes, in my opinion, if you vote for the AfD, you are racist to a degree at least.
Germany: well, okay, listen, it's not working out for America, and it didn't work out for us that one time, but they promised it'll be different for us. What's a few civil liberties and social safety nets if it means we get to extract slave labor from immigrants put immigrants in prison for life for the crime of existing?
His whole series on White Fascism and the current Alt-Right is a phenomenal summary of today's right wing "conservative" (fascist / nazi) landscape in an internet-connected age. Nothing has truly changed for them: they're still a suicide cult based around attacking "the other" (whatever they pick to attack) and then narrowing who is allowed to be at the top until everyone is dead.
Short version is they cannot govern without a coalition partner, but they gain other rights in the parliament, such as filling important positions in the administration. When they reach 1/3 of the votes, so 33% they have a Sperrminorität, which means they can prevent changes in the constitution and also hinder new judges in the constitutional court.
Also 25% in an election would allow installing parliamentary inquiry commissions, which can be a decent way to obstruct the government by busying the bureaucracy and hogging media time.
This is post election. They didn't have the majority during the elections, so while it is impressive, it doesn't give them new political powers. Also, they require coalition partners, but nobody is willing to do that. If a coalition can be formed between (looking at the chart) Union, SPD, and Greens, that puts them at >50% giving them a majority to govern.
If the new coalition is formed and they don't get their act together within the time of governance, the next elections could be fatal for democracy in Germany. Honestly, like in most other European countries facing threats to democracy, their current governments must take decisive and quick action to make more people happy. However, current governments are trying to play the nazi's game, and they are predictably losing ground because that's not a solution.
Major parties are playing identity politics, trying to be populistic, bundling nazi ideas as their own, or quite simply not uniting like for example the French left-wing parties did (however short-lived that was). They should be:
decreasing the gap between the rich and everybody else
improving EU and national sovereignty by promoting non-US products and services to stop the influx of US and Russian propaganda
taking radical action to make lodging and life in general more affordable (more social housing, making multi-home ownership less attractive, regulating the market more, etc.)
improving public transport to reduce car dependence to reduce air and noise pollution in cities, which also makes transport more affordable
providing more education with paid educational leave to allow career switches
reduce hurdles for creating small businesses and provide guidance for those willing to start businesses
invest in technology that makes life easier and more comfortable (better internet to reduce trips to office and government offices in particular, subsidies and research into improved heating and heat retention to reduce electricity and gas bills, ...)
and so so much more. A happy, educate populace is much less likely to be duped and and magnitudes less likely to vote against their own interests (like voting for lying politicians or nazis).
donno about Germany, but here in UK the current government is actually putting through unexpected changes, but its probably invisible to general public. news outlets are generally pro conservatives here
We'll see about Germany. I think the last government tried to do stuff but one coalition "partner" cutting away at the coalition's Achilles heel (the budget). The media reporting on Germany also seems to be quite conservative, so a bunch of the good stuff the coalition did was swept under the rug e.g for the first time in decades the German railway infrastructure didn't get worse (it also didn't get better, but at least it didn't get worse).
The graphic that OP posted has the conservatives as the second most popular party, but they were the most popular one after the last elections. It's the same party of Merkel, the same one that was in power for 15 years and didn't improve the country during that entire time, thus planting the seeds for the nazis.
As long as they have less than 50% the other parties could (in theory) band together against them and create a coalition government.
The problem arises when that coalition has to become more diverse. As you can imagine the populist right would rather work together with the far right than with the populist left, so the coalition becomes shaky, paralyzed because they cannot come to agreements. The common denominator will be so small that basically nothing gets done, and the oppositional party will profit from that.
Shaky coalition governments can lead to government breakups and snap elections which in combination with the resulting loss of trust and inability to do anything of the government will likely lead to an even stronger opposition and even more shaky governments or right out majority for the plurality party.
Also, the leader of the opposition usually chairs important committees like the Budget Committee, the opposition also gets important roles in the committees for Foreign Affairs, Internal Affairs and Defense. It also gets priority in debates, which is usually a good thing, since this works as a check and balance to hold government accountable, but when this role is in the hands of populists, they will certainly use it to further their own narrative.
As you can imagine the populist right would rather work together with the far right than with the populist left
Ah fuck it let's give the Churches money to build apartments, then. They don't believe in anything anyway so let's just capture a vague sense of conservativeness.
The last election was so recent, the new government hasn't even started working yet.
This poll is utterly useless, cause the next election it asks about will be in 4 years.
I am expecting the incoming government to do a much worse job than the outgoing one, regarding actually addressing the underlying structural problems that led us here.
The last election shouldn't even have happened. It only happened because the previous government was unwilling and too incompetent to do their fucking job to the end of their term. And I don't see how the new one will be in any way more competent and/or willing. All they want is to line their pockets.
The current government includes the SPD, which willingly entered into a coalition with the FDP. The CDU is following the same agenda as the FDP. History is repeating itself, just as in the Weimar Republic, none of the established parties are willing and/or able to solve problems that actually matter for the population, creating a giant void in the political landscape that the Nazi scum is happily occupying by simply blaming a convenient scapegoat for the problems and playing the political establishment like a fiddle.
If you ask the population what problems actually matter to them right now, a large part of them will answer "close the borders to protect us from crime".
Which would mean leaving the EU despite the fact that the crime rate is lower than it was in the past.
Or they'll say "make gas cheaper". Which the government can't do without bankrupting itself and would cause loads of other problems.
Then you have a party that promises to solve the problems that are actually behind why people are struggling: the rent crisis, rich people syphoning off all wealth, the cost of living, etc...
That party got 8% of the vote.
Clearly Germany is not doing enough to put a stop to the rising conservatism movement
What do you mean by they are not doing enough? They are basically doing nothing else to the point of not actually doing any constructive work anymore.
Every single party is heavily competing about who can move faster to the far-right and parrot nazi narratives louder to get those voters back. And if it totally surprisingly doesn't work (who would have thought that alienating some voters while telling the others that nazi propaganda lies are totally okay as long as they are the ones telling them is the perfect campaign... for the AfD) they double down again and again. 🤡 🤮
Right know Scholz is still chancellor and the old government still in office. This only changes when Merz is voted into office and the new government formed. FDP is not part of the government anymore since the old coalition failed.
I've been watching AfD grow for years. They aren't the ruling party now, but will be soon enough. Maybe German democracy is strong enough to resist Fascism, maybe not. Only time will tell for sure.
Strongest Power doesnt mean ruling power here.
And they will not get into power unless the Union partys want to betrail all their voters even more than they have always been doing. Which will trigger a full on uprising.
And even if they are in power the states can block almost everything they do. Germanys constitutional court also has lots of say and can stop things and isnt appointed by the partys unlike in the US
I hope you're right but like I said, only time will tell. In 2015 I thought US democracy was enough to hold Donald Trump in check also, but history proved me wrong there. My state is very blue and I think we can effectively resist a lot (but not all) of what he's doing, but that doesn't help other states that want his destruction, or the rest of the world.
Germanys constitutional court [...] isnt appointed by the partys unlike in the US
That is new information to me, and quite interesting. How do your judges come into power?
Used to be partially threw parliament, partially threw the state council and the current judges also have a say in it. For anew judge it needs 2/3 majority. They are there only for 12 years and cant be reelected. Cant be above 68 neither younger than 40. Plus you have to have to be a judge which is very hard and strictly monitored and served as a highest judge. But last year they changed the voting process with heavy protest of the AfD. We have 2 supremecourt councils each made up of 8 judges. Plus the president also has a say. Its very complicated. But as you see the AfD would have to rule all of germany and every german state AND have enought judges in their ranks for over 10 years to yield hitler power levels.
Doesnt mean they cant do heavy damage already once in charge. But they wont be able to change voting laws or the distribution of power for example.
Germanys federalism is blessing and a big safe guard, but also that federalism brings huge headach and makes change really really slow.
Is the proper response: Well shit.
This is why I keep telling people we are fucked by focusing in increasing military power in europe even if it appears and is obviously needed. We are going to put all the power at the hands of insane lunatics ready to wage war and put people in ovens.
It's happening in all countries in Europe. I think in mine we'll have elections next month or something like that and the extreme right is at 2nd or 3rd position ready to take first or will join hands with another to win. It was so close already last time. No matter how many crimes all their members do and show up in the news every week.
It's what the people want. Most people everywhere are ok and want homicidal narcissist and sociopathic people in charge of them.
If the government doesn't fall like it does here regularly 😮💨
I have no trust in the current coalition to make that happen...
Best of luck to you and your country staying sane-ish a little longer.
They don't even need to win elections, everyone was already discussing immigration because of propaganda & news (Messerattacke). They have set the agenda, this now is just more evidence of their success.
Sad.
Did you not realize that they performed incredibly well in the elections? Social media is how they will overthrow the last remaining democracies. France, UK and Canada are next. All the young folks are increasingly more conservative and within 2-6 years, it's going to be game over.
We really should stop using the term "conservative" for what the self proclaimed "conservative" parties are doing. Because they don't conserve anything. They do the exact opposite. They exploit and destroy.
I don't disagree, but when one part of society uses word A and the other part uses word B that would only further increase polarization, which already is a serious problem. I think it'd be better it we continue using the name they use for themselves, but point out what a weird name it is for them. So we could tell them for example that we find it strange they consider themselves "conservative" parties because they don't conserve anything. They do the exact opposite. They exploit and destroy.
The problem is that more simple minded people who are actually conservative, as they want to conserve society as it is, will easily fall for the propaganda and vote for a party that is out to destroy what they want to conserve.
The self proclaimed standing of a party is part of its propaganda. Unfortunately the media are complicit with the parties on perpetuating their propaganda, by calling parties by their chosen adjectives, rather than by what would be more fitting. Conservatives should rather be called "Destructives", and in many countries, "Social Democrats" are rather Neoliberals, for they have long sold out social democracy to the highest bidder and now follow an extremist free market ideology, their only remaining difference to the "Conservatives" being not wanting to return to societal norms from 60 years ago.
Populist intentionally choose words that attract potential voters, they will continue to do that. But calling them out for not being real conservatives because they act different is definitely helpful.
The real problem is that "conserve society as it is" was always a lie, unless the "as it is" you're talking about happened to be monarchy. Conservatism, as an ideology, was founded in support of monarchism. A society run by an aristocratic elite has always been the thing they're trying to conserve.
The correct term is reactionary.
Just call it what it is. It's fascist. It's the fascist party. All of these - afd, maga, same unimaginative shit.
Inventing new terms is what these fuckers want. Remind them they're not new and been wrong before.
It's not a new term, it has been around for a few centuries now. People who want to revert change, go back to the perceived good old times. Fascist is overused these days, and I'd argue reactionary hits a nice descriptive middle ground between conservative (which they are not, any more) and fascist (which many of them aren't yet). Hit them where they are, not where they move to
I do agree with and appreciate the nuance, it's clear from your careful wording you understand conservatism by definition doesn't have a cause to stand for, hence reactionary. It's apt in a good faith discussion.
My problem is supplying ammunition for bad faith discussion. Like what "libertarians" are to conservatives. They'll claim they're not conservatives, they're just libertarians. All the while supporting the same goals with a different name.
Not sure why you're getting downvoted, maybe people just don't like to hear it. You're not wrong.
To add, these people generally have more kids, and raise them to be conservative. It's depressing. It might take some severe hardship on people to shift left again? Not sure what that is, hopefully not another world War.
The shift left is not happening until theres a major (most likely violent) crisis. As it is, America will become Russia 2.0 and this will probably be the staus quo for a while.
No, I didn't. I've been drowning in depression keeping up with what is happening in the US.
Just looking at the people around me (mostly colleagues, I'm not friends with this kind of people) it's no surprise, when just about anything triggers them to vote AfD. Some actual examples:
"We have a vegetarian day at the cafeteria now. Stupid Greens forcing me to not eat meat one day a week. I'm going to vote AfD next election."
"They built a new bicycle lane on my way to work. Now I'm forced to stick to the speed limit because of all the bicyclists on MY road blocking me. It's a straight street, I should be able to go 80 even though it's inner city. I've always been going 80 there! Stupid Greens, I'm going to vote AfD next election."
"Supplier X stopped issuing their bikini model calendar. Everything is forbidden nowadays! Noone ever cared for bikini model calenders, but the Greens want to forbid every little piece of fun. Stupid woke culture. I'm going to vote AfD."
And let's not forget that one boss who told me that my life-threatening nut allergy was woke nonsense, because back in his day "everybody just ate what's on the table and noone died, but nowadays everybody has to feel special by making up things they won't eat."
They just want to go back to 1950s culture, when gay people, trans people, allergies, ADHD, autism, veganism, climate change and anything other than straight white dudes and straight white housewives "didn't exist", because how dare the world be more complex than a Rosamunde Pilcher movie.
They want to return to 1950s, but they will return to 1930s. And not only in Germany. Stupid people have no clue what dictators always do.
Specifically, 1939.
“When you’re accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression.” – Franklin Leonard
I'm genuinely sorry your boss said that to you, but it sounds so fucking ridiculous I laughed. Jesus. Imagine being so stupid that someone might die.
You know what the worst thing is? He wasn't the only one by far. Later at a different company another Teamleader told me I have to go out to eat with everybody. When I said the restaurant isn't save for me (lots of nuts on the menu), he just said I HAVE to come and that's what the Epipen is there for. I complained to HR and the HR lady asked why I don't just do a therapy against allergies. Told me about some esoteric bullshit that's supposed to cure all allergies and advised me to do that so I can better fit in with the company culture.
This has to be the most toxic employer in Germany. I had some shit jobs, especially when I was younger, but this is insane.
I want to come throw hands on all these people for you!
NRW. Rheinland, um genau zu sein. Hier gibt es auch seeehr viele "Wir haben das schon immer so gemacht"-Leute.
Rheinische Frohnatur halt 😉
Well, to bring some darker thoughts to the topic: Most fascist movements are also very, very inclined on their interpretation of darwinism, so... "weak" people dying off may for them be more a feature than a bug
Also highlights we don’t live in a meritocracy if this clown is in charge of others.
You guys gotta be more like America on the bike lanes one.
Just have crippling, insane traffic, where it takes you three hours to move five (5) city blocks (this has actually happened to me).
Suddenly, a new bike lane gets you across the city in 26 minutes.
It made the bike lanes very popular, haha.
As an American, I don't think people will support bike lanes even then
The German mindset to capitulate in the face of challenges that cant be solved by doing how things where allways done (since kohl).
By god, nobody wants things like wealth and inheritance taxes to be done like way back when (when they existed).
Ok, unfair the majority of Germans wants them, but this great democracy continuously produces Governments for and by the 1% irrespective of your vote.
Plus two percent, a difference of one percent to second place and an error margin of two point five percent. Congrats.
Besides that, I really start to hate these reports. Weekly updates on the Sonntagsfrage are utterly lacking substance, fearmongering (to left leaning people) and reassurance (to AfD voters). Everything we do not need.
About a election in 4 years? Not really. At least not yet. This isn‘t news worthy in my opinion because it doesn‘t tell you anything about what the country will look like in 4 years.
If the current government is even willing and able to serve their term to its end (the previous one didn't), and actually improve the situation enough so people stop running after some rat catchers with a simple lie as the supposed solution.
But the Left and Greens are in opposition — this is a chance. Hopefully they are able to mobilise as well in the coming years.
Socially, the Greens stand exactly where the "Social Democrats" stand. They co-authored the unprecedented social cutbacks of the Schröder era, which brought Germany where it is today. They are a party of privileged academics who are fine with easing their ecological conscience on the backs of people with lower income. And the Left still has Putin bootlicker vibes (they call it "peace"), even though the worst Putin bootlickers left them to form their own party.
As I said: opposition is always a chance to rethink your position and get a sharper profile. The Left is moving in a good direction after the breakup. Parties are huge constructs that need sone time to change. My hope is that the Greens will be pulled to the left as well.
The Greens only just sold out their core audience of environmentalists to the coal lobby during their term in government. On state level, during the energy crisis, one of their big wigs (namely the prime minister of Baden-Württemberg) recommended people too poor to afford energy to just go and buy a heat pump, or to use a washcloth instead of taking a shower. If a party tolerates people with such a "let them eat cake" attitude in an influential position, it won't go back to a "sharper profile" in the social area any time soon.
The Left keeps persistently and adamantly confusing servile submission to force with peace. Even after the breakup.
The Greens will be pulled to the left in the same way they have been "pulled to the left" in the previous few decades. They'll present some rainbow coloured pseudo leftist folklore before the next election only to keep selling out the lower classes if they happen to score a win.
Where did I say that? How the fuck do you come up with that being the conclusion of my comment?
Calm down, you could have just said “yes the left should be worried but no need to panic” and all would be well.
I'm not calming down. This dumb shit happens just far too often lately. I have no idea, why people insinuate things others never said and burn that strawman down, but I'm getting too tired and more and more pissed off by it, to the point where I wonder if it's even worth it or I should rather stop discussing.
Shit's annoying AF.
You should stop discussing because what you call a straw man is a perfectly reasonable interpretation of your comment. If you don't want it to be open to interpretation, you should be more clear, rather than get mad at people taking one of the reasonable interpretations. An additional sentence at the end of that comment like "That said, the left should be worried." would likely have been enough.
About as reasonable an interpretation as asking you if you mean humans shouldn't ever feel emotions by saying "Calm down".
So in your stupid brain "Not A" is automatically and without any alternatives to equivocate with "the utterly illogical opposite to A"?
How on earth is "push the breaks on fearmongering" equal to "Na, don't worry"???
You can be against news fearmongering a certain group and also believe the fear this group has is valid. In this case, the leftist could for example be already worried by the actual situation and not because of the fearmongering.
No for fucks sake. Fearmongering is the irrational exaggeration of a worrisome situation to a degree that incites fear (hence the term fearmongering) and panic.
Bitte achte auf deine Ausdrucksweise, solche Gossensprache wollen wir hier nicht.
Also, the heads of most of the polling institutes are openly right leaning.
RTL and their head is more than just "right leaning" Remember the call? "We have to do everything in our power to destroy the greens and spd. Help the FDP and our other ally" Springer is such a huge problem. No one would be remorsed if the entire springer empire got sucked up by a black hole
In phone polls 4 years before the next election...
Dont get me wrong, this sucks, but its not what the germans actually voted for.
But they already performed very well in the last election.
Still shows you something you can't see by asking your neighbours, colleagues and family. But I agree it doesn't matter in a real way.
AfD is using fascist manipulation using propaganda (always putting immigrants and immigrant attacks in the spotlight) to gain power and discriminate immigrants even more, causing more retaliation which in turn makes people give the AfD even more power.
In a tolerant society we should not be tolerant of such intolerance.
I'm an American. I really hope the German masses can learn this lesson before it"s too late.
But you guys need to counter the hateful messaging against immigrants with an equally effective message against the people with power/money, otherwise, fascism is likely to win in the long run against neoliberalism, as we just saw in America after our long-term experiment with neoliberalism, which really kicked off in the 1980s with Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher.
In the 1990s, the American Democrats felt so defeated after having lost big time to Reagan and Bush Sr., so Bill Clinton decided the Democrats cannot "unilatterally disarm" and must start taking corporate money. This acceptance of corporate money led to their idiology becoming the same as Reagan's idiology, and then the Republican party being bith opportunists and contrarians, took advantage of that situation by shifting further and further right (see: the ratchet effect), until they openly became fascists.
I'm not too familiar with German politics, but if anything I said applies, then heed my warning.
This is exactly it. However, I am not too optimistic about centrist politicians/media/society coming to that conclusion. We are complacent and scared and would rather keep our heads in the sand and blame minorities instead of addressing the underlying structural issues.
And stil the state refuses to ban them, refuses to arrest and sentence their leaders.
It will be Weimar 2.0 with liberals being either too incompetent or too unwilling to stop fascism.
Fascism is not stopped at the podium or in parliament. It is stopped with bullets and bombs. The longer you wait the more bullets and bombs it will take and the more lives it will cost. We need a new, this time thorough, denazification.
Liberal does not mean leftist outside of the USA. Liberal actually means what is called libertarian in the USA.
I have not called liberals leftist and never would. I'm not on that American brainrot.
in most contexts here ive heard "liberal" used to describe neoliberalism rather then leftism or libertarianism (though I know many conservatives in the US use it as a catch all for the left)
I'm American and I use the term "liberal" specifically to refer to neoliberals. I'm probably in the minority, though, especially given Fox News and GamerGate calling everything they don't like "liberal".
I think it's enough to just do: arrests of leaders (and banning them from public speaking but for life) + breaking up the party + outlawing the party + banning people who decide to take up the mantle of/act as a declared proxy for the party and attempt to visibly pick up where they left off.
That last one I learned from my own country''s current situation: in Romania, a crazy far right candidate came out of nowhere (on the wings of illegal undisclosed campaign donations) to win the first round, and as soon as that happened our mainstream far right party's candidate started supporting him. Then they canceled the election because of the undisclosed donations (he literally declared 0 campaign spending!) so now, in the redo of the election, this other guy is basically running as his proxy and will likely try to appoint him PM if he wins.
Ideally arrests and executions will be enough. I think letting fascists live out their lives in prison is too dangerous. Too many political enemies have been released historically after government changes. Hitler himself didn't even have to serve for life and was released early.
Weimar was a small civil war between soldiers who returned from WW1. That's why both the left and the right had fighters. Where should the fighters who shoot the bullets come from now?
The fascists came to power because the elite feared that the communists could win. Otherwise, despite massive manipulation, the fascists never got an absolute majority.
There are many issues that other parties simply ignore. There would be far less voteres for the AfD if the other parties would listen. The AfD started with the demand that the rules about euro stability shouldn't be ignored. That's not a fascist position.
The other parties are not taking up AfDs made up causes because they are made up.
For example:
A sack of potatoes falls.
AfD: Foreigners are causing the sacks to fall! We must gas them! And the jews!
Other parties: This is so stupid it doesn't even warrant a response.
General public: but the foreigners!!111!1!!!11 and the potatoes!!1! I am outraged!!!111!!!
Unfortunately, the other parties are very well taking up the Nazis' lies. The Nazis are playing the political establishment like a fiddle.
To stick with your example of the potato sack, the established parties do just jump the Nazi bandwagon and parrot their narrative in a less extreme manner, like "Illegal immigrants kicking over potato sacks is a severe problem, we need to protect our potato sacks by border controls and increased deportations."
Just as one AfD politician remarked last year, (after the election in Thuringia, if I recall right) the AfD is ruling without actually being in the government.
This reflects American politics as well.
I think the problem can be summed up as poll driven politics.
It's a feedback loop, they do focus on a topic some opinion poll has shown to be somewhat popular, the resulting exposure increases popularity, which reflects in the polls, which leads to increased political focus on the topic...
In America at least, this is as a direct result of corporate media and money in politics both controlling the narrative. None of this was naturally occurring.
Not that different in Germany. The biggest difference in the media landscape, the pretty large public broadcasters aren't really a difference, because their governing bodies and leadership positions are stuffed with (ex) politicians and their relatives.
I don't think that you make a good point if you yourself make up your point. Please quote the AfD to avoid all doubt.
Of course. Here is an AfD quote:
Hope that makes it clearer.
Don't you see that false quotes undermine your position?
But it isn't false. They are literal nazis and say literal nazi things.
Several offices for the protection of the constitution of the German Länder (they are a kind of anti-extremist intelligence services, in case you don't know) have found them to be "assuredly right-wing-extremists", which is the worst possible classification the law recognises.
Again. Literal, actual, nazis.
Yes. That's why you should quote what they literally say. It's not a quote if you write what you think they say.
But starting and organizing a violent opposition seem like so much effort. And I really have to finish some shows I've been watching.
Using bullets and bombs would make the rest not better than the fascists, so lets not use them.
We don't need to be tolerant to the intolerant.
No it wouldn't, it would make you smart enough to speak to the fascists in the only language they understand. Words don't work against fascists because they don't care what words mean. Better to defend yourself now while you still can.
War and violence have existed long before fascism. It's not their invention or monopoly.
True. But I don't want the world to be that bad. I want to live without war and violence.
Once they take power, the only thing that can stop them is bullets and bombs. And Fascists do have a nasty habit of shooting first, if you let them.
Source: https://dkriesel.com/sonntagsfrage
David Kriesel is amazing! Didn't know about this. Very useful.
Yes, he's great data scientist. He has more stuff on his webpage, e.g. bias analysis of the different polling institutes, be sure to check it out if you like!
So CDU is just AfD in disguise...
More like the decline of CDU is directly proportional to rise in AfD. Could be a number of reasons, such as alienating fringe voters on singular issues such as defense or trans, or it could be that CDU officials don't show the same animosity towards far right that they used to have.
There are multiple factors at play.
Both the US and Germany want to return to their fascist roots it seems
Decades of capitalist decay and anti-communist propaganda will do that.
Don’t forget about Russia. It is already there and leading in its effort to turn some countries into the same political system, making thereby these countries their puppets aka satellites.
Mass immigration into a housing shortage in order to push down wages, artificially invert the Phillips curve, and prop up housing prices will as well. I assume rising support for the afd is mostly the young.
https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/housing-index
https://recruitonomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/DE3-Net-migration-1024x565.png
The see the US and realize it's possible to do it all over again.
*In an opinion poll
I mean lets not confuse an opinion poll with the truth. These things regularly get things a couple points off. In fact that’s the norm.
That's what people have been saying for years and yet the AfD is already the second strongest in the last election...
Yes so they're first or a close second, that's hardly better.
They were quite accurate the last few elections though... Maybe 1% off, but that's it.
This is such a U.S. way of reporting things.
74% of people don't want to be part of AfD.
One out every four people you meet being a literal nazi is tough tho
US: what about one out of every two?
More like 1 in 3, many people didn't or couldn't vote
sadly, it's basically expected that about 15-30% of the population are far-right xenophobes. the question is how well they can be mobilized.
I disagree. The nazis leading the polls is very disturbing.
Ive really been trying but every time theres a worse quagmire of information to wade through. "Like literal Trump fans. Jews own everything. Democracy is cool and all but really... sometimes we need other measures." Theres just no way to talk back. Or even interact when in comes to politics.
Take care of the nazi problem before they take care of you. You already know how that works. Stop allowing them to broadcast nazi propaganda as if it was news.
It's similar in the UK currently. The UK's equivalent of AfD is Reform UK who are apparently the leading party in the polls (source):
True, it's a long time until the next UK general election. Maybe Reform's vote will suffer before then. Alternatively the local elections and by-elections could be a boost for them, I dunno.
Anyway, maybe we should have proportional representation in the UK. Even if Reform had 25% of the vote and therefore 25% of the seats in parliament, that would mean that 75% of parliamentarians wouldn't be Reform members.
Our current system allows a party with minority support (potentially Reform in the future) to win a majority of parliamentary seats. In 2019, the Conservatives won 44% of the vote, which gave them 56% of seats. Last year, Labour won 34% of the vote, which gave them 63% of seats.
Many reform voters are old men. Many will die between here and 4 years with the state of the NHS
No surprise considering CDU/CSU fucking up shit for the broad population from day one. They even suggested a 1000€ deductible for the health insurance.
Shit, in the US a $1000 deductible is what you get with pretty good insurance. My employer has a few plans and only one has a deductible below $1000.
Not to say that's good. Just pointing out that the US has succumbed to capitalism.
pretty good usually mean somewhat expensive too.
Yep, costly for the enrollees and their emoyers.
That isn't pretty good insurance.
It's what most employees will settle for.
US is not my standard when it comes to healthcare.
Everyone in germany pays 14% of his income as health insurance, you do not have a choice (except for a few people), there is a MASSIVE amount of money in the system. It's just wasted left and right, so introducing a deductible is just the dumbest thing ever.
Everybody in Germany. Please talk to family members that you don't talk to about how this is dangerous to you. I know I have these in my family that I should invest in instead of always talking to the closest ones. Also make sure to beat them with genuine questions that break open their confidence in the reasoning with the socratic way (epistemology)
Or
It's not about being well versed in the topic of conversation But good questions
This!
The best strategy is to engage in genuine conversations.
Most people just label the unknowledgable as stupid and attempt to desperately convince them with a bombardment of facts and counter-arguments. Even worse is just calling them "Nazi" and leave it at that. This is futile with some people who have gone down too deep into the hate-train of social media. They will immediately mentally blockade what you're saying and the cycle continues.
It's way more effective to get into a friendly conversation and actually engage with what they are saying. Listen. Ask questions. Listen. Ask questions. Understand why they believe what they believe. Be open to their arguments, however rediculous you might find them.
The most important thing you need to realize that it's not their fault and they are not stupid! They are just the output of their environment. Everyone has emotions. And everyone deals with them differently. Everyone has their environment. And everyone sources their information from that environment. Everyone has parts of their lives where they are misinformed or less educated than an expert in the field. You too! Consequently, the way to change someone's belief is to change their environment while understanding their emotional basis.
and everyone is at a different stage in their life. If i'd have to talk to 10-years-ago-me I wouldnt agree with them in beliefs that are still held today pretty commonly
Germany should have actually denazified instead of the joke they did. Also should have reunited the two germanys instead of what happened which was basically a west German conquest of east Germany contributing greatly to its impoverershment.
Honest question, what was wrong with the denazification that was carried out? Did they have any historical example to compare to?
Think about it like this: What do you do if everyone is at least complicit? While the soviets excluded the old elites from their new regime, the west focused more on reintegrating them. That being said, both sides were willing to turn a blind eye if you where qualified enough and needed for the continued function of society.
So for example the head of the neurological society was a doctor who experimented on brains of executed prisoners and children. And unfortunately this was the rule, not the exception.
The fact that it didn't happen? That a lot of the very few who got actual sentences (less than those who worked just at Auschwitz)were pardoned before their time was up. That all levels of the post war German government was filled with nazi party members. That it was quickly abandoned even in the limited and performative form it existed it to unite to fight "the communist threat". I don't need a historical example of a successful de radicalization in order to say this one didn't happen and its a myth it did.
Ok I get what you mean. But what was the realistic alternative when (like another poster mentioned) everyone is partly complicit and society has to be rebuilt? Who can the chief surgeon of the hospital be replaced with? Everyone professionally competent in any position of esteem has to have been at least partially complicit or compliant with the previous regime. Historical context is important because I think it is a near impossible task. Pol pot killed everyone, de-Baathification created more of a mess (both efforts to weed things out later, presumably using Germany as a bad example).
Jeah wondering the same, like Germany was already doing a lot more compared to other countries with previous facist governments
The so called Schreibtisch Nazis werent punished eventhough they were just as part of the holocaust, helping it moving and working, as the once not in an office.
East germany, did it even worse imo. The soviets recruited not just scientists and some spies. They recruited Gestapo and SS members, helped them shred their past and unpunished recruited them for the SaSi. Also not teaching it "our people did this and we have to make sure it doesnt happen again" but "we were the victims and didnt have anything to do with the nazis"
And then add a butchered integration. Butchering and slaughtering the rest of wealth from east germany in the 90s. Fertal ground for those types of idiological spreaders that came from the west. And now we see their flower bloom... And ugly smelling brown rotting rotfruit
I did Nazi that coming.
I read 50% of the men in Germany died in ww2 ….but yea cool Nazis what could go wrong.? Fuck around and find out I guess
And 60 million others.
Yep nothing good ever comes from supporting facists
It's baffling how those self proclaimed patriots can celebrate a bunch of traitors who ruined their country by killing off a significant part of its population and starting an unwinnable war that left the country in ruins.
Who is going to fight them this time? The US and the UK are heading down the same path with the US far out in the lead and Russia is already an authoritarian state. France and Canada aren't enough to stand up against this wave of naziism.
For what‘s worth it doesn‘t actually matter what potential voters would vote for each and every week when the next election is almost 4 years away. If anything, bold headlines like these only act as a self fulfilling prophecy and are blatant populism. Even a good government can‘t be super popular every single week and the sooner people realize that, the better for democracy. Though I won‘t hold my breath.
Many of those aren't real votes but "protest" support. Very dumb imo. They're hoping its a wakeup to the other parties but it really just emboldens the afd.
Please look at the US and what's happening here right now.
A significant portion of Trump's voters in 2016 were protest anti-establishment voters and they've been converted into full on Fascist voters in the 8 years since then.
Nah I don't buy it. Nazis voting for nazis know what they are doing. AfDs plan is clear, like project 2025 was and their voters like what they see and should be treated and handled accordingly.
Okay well in German and I know some of these idiots. It's true. Of course some are literally Nazis. You see the same thing in the US as well. Don't take my reply as defending these people.
Are they dumber than the parties that didn't get the message?
Can confirm they're generally quite dumb.
They just asked 1502 people by phone.
Yes. That's a usual number for representative polling. Sometimes, they ask 1.000, sometimes 2.000. The other German polling institutes are doing the same.
https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
So it is a poll of people who answer phone numbers they don’t recognize.
You can of course criticize that, but Forsa exists since 1984 and they are not known for publishing unrealistic polls. The polls are not the problem here. The people turning off their brains and voting for the far right are the problem.
There's a lot more than that, check the sampling methods on this Wikipedia article:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sampling_(statistics)
They could, for example, ask for demographic information of the sampled population and weight that to the general population (let's say that 50% of the people who answered are males from 70+; but they just represent 10% of the general population, then that answers are weighted to represent only 10% of the final results).
There's a lot of theory behind sampling.
I’m sure it is probably fine. I’m just being flippant.
That's how statistics works. You take a sample and interpret the reality based on that sample. When you get a blood exam, you don't need to check all the blood, you take a sample and based on that get a result.
I mean, why vote CDU if they are doing the same shit as AFD but are not as good at it?
We don't know how good AFD would be at doing, what they claim. But none of the parties who have been in power over the last 20-30 years have done anything significant to improve the average workers economic status (e.g. make housing affordable, guarantee a reasonable pension, lessen the fear of unemployment, etc.). AFD claims, "if we get rid of the immigrants, everything will be better again" and people are believing it.
I've seen some negative reporting on afd Landesregierung, where we can see them act in power. Unfortunately I can't point to any right now.
As a crimson lining, I hope the United State's decay will teach Germany to destroy the AfD and all other right wingers. They are a poison to civilization.
Hopefully yes. But not very likely as the cdU/csU are getting more and more open to cooperate with the afd. I'm afraid we are in the last legaslative term without an afd-ridden coalition.
Germans literally have so many choices of political parties that they can actually elect, why do they have to go for the worst one AfD?
I want to give oen example of how people on the fence can up on the wrong side, radicalized if you will. For the record I’m as far left as I can get. I support a lof of humanitarian causes and respect the decisions of others, particularly in sexuality or individual personal definitions. Be what you want, do what you want, be good, be fair. It’s easier than being rotten.
I’m only a resident of Germany, so every two years I need to renew my residency card, the Awshfksoyngelelemdn, or whatever that alphabet soup is called. I began the process 3 months before I was set to expire (Nov 2024). Surely, that would be enough time to get shit done at a rathaus that refuses to do any of this online. Oof, so wrong. JULY was the first appointment they would give me. My residency expired in April. No problem, they said. I can still live here since I made the appointment, just don’t leave Germany. I must leave Germany as that’s my job and why they moved me here from the US years back.
I begged to understand why the wait times are so long and the answer I got, from the rathaus, was that refugees from Syria and Palestine have been given the opportunity to migrate to my town and their processing is a priority. The only way I can get around that, to get an earlier appointment, would be to stand in the line when they open at 7:30am-12:00pm, M-F. I went there at 7am and the line wrapped around the block. I asked the person in the front of the line what time they got there. 4am.
I came back another day, at 4am, and got shit done, but that’s a huge brick in the wall for people already pissed they have to share with the lesser fortunate. I sucked it up. I get what they’re doing. But when Germans see just how poorly this is all being managed, they start listening to the assholes that promise to fix that… at all costs.
It’s a fkn drag. I had much higher hopes for Germany when I moved here, but now I’m left wondering what my next move is going to be. I refuse to be ruled by racist idiots. It’s a big reason behind why I happily left the US. Only hope will be that everyone sees the US administration tripping over their own dicks and come to their senses, but I’ve really lost faith after the 2024 election cycle.
It's really tiring how all-or-nothing political parties like to be. Your choices are: · Help everyone, thus straining our resources thin and barely helping anyone · Fucking kill anyone who so much looks at us
I personally think "help yourself first so you can help others better". How are you expected to take care of humanitarian issues when your own country is unraveled? You're having your own humanitarian issue!
It's mostly East Germany. Communism's fuckups in that area are still causing suffering today. I suppose West can be blamed for failing to integrate the east properly.
Unfortunately, that's not the only reason. We have 16 Bundesländer (states). 5 of them are in the East. But they have hardly more inhabitants than Bavaria. So a lot of us in the "Real Germany" (the western states) are voting those AHs too.
Put looting the east via Treuhand on that list...
Treuhand was a disgrace
its a few factors in play, one is the normalization of far-right policies by the other big parties (SPD, Greens, Union) and their inability to fix the damage caused by the financial crisis of 2008, the rise of anti-migrant beliefs in the german working class, and a few others
i think this video explains well the rise of the AfD in germany, at this point its only a matter of time until one or more parties decide to make a coalition with the AfD
That's absolutely not it. Germany went through the crisis of 2008 like a breeze. In 2015 during the refugee crisis, Merkel decided to open our borders to all of the refugees. Before that, the AfD had below 10% of the voters on their side. But a huge chunk of the population did not agree to Merkel's refugee policies. That's when the AfD took off. And now we can't get rif of them 😒
So AfD took off because Germans are largely racist, great look
If you ask the AfD-Fanboys, most are probably going to say that they are not racist, that there are just too many refugees in the country and the other parties aren't doing anything about it. The AfD, meanwhile, is blaming all og the problems on the "left parties" and illegal immigrants. But yes, in my opinion, if you vote for the AfD, you are racist to a degree at least.
Ah 💩, here we go again
Germany: well, okay, listen, it's not working out for America, and it didn't work out for us that one time, but they promised it'll be different for us. What's a few civil liberties and social safety nets if it means we get to
extract slave labor from immigrantsput immigrants in prison for life for the crime of existing?Innuendo Studios summarized it rather well with:
"We're not like those other fascists. We're young, hip, and successful. Come back, baby. It'll be different this time."
https://youtu.be/5Luu1Beb8ng?list=PLJA_jUddXvY7v0VkYRbANnTnzkA_HMFtQ&t=1179
His whole series on White Fascism and the current Alt-Right is a phenomenal summary of today's right wing "conservative" (fascist / nazi) landscape in an internet-connected age. Nothing has truly changed for them: they're still a suicide cult based around attacking "the other" (whatever they pick to attack) and then narrowing who is allowed to be at the top until everyone is dead.
Can someone explain how powerful a party can be in Germany with a plurality but without a majority?
Short version is they cannot govern without a coalition partner, but they gain other rights in the parliament, such as filling important positions in the administration. When they reach 1/3 of the votes, so 33% they have a Sperrminorität, which means they can prevent changes in the constitution and also hinder new judges in the constitutional court.
Extra context: Sperrminorität translates to a blocking minority, as in you have enough votes to prevent a 2/3 majority vote.
Also 25% in an election would allow installing parliamentary inquiry commissions, which can be a decent way to obstruct the government by busying the bureaucracy and hogging media time.
This is post election. They didn't have the majority during the elections, so while it is impressive, it doesn't give them new political powers. Also, they require coalition partners, but nobody is willing to do that. If a coalition can be formed between (looking at the chart) Union, SPD, and Greens, that puts them at >50% giving them a majority to govern.
If the new coalition is formed and they don't get their act together within the time of governance, the next elections could be fatal for democracy in Germany. Honestly, like in most other European countries facing threats to democracy, their current governments must take decisive and quick action to make more people happy. However, current governments are trying to play the nazi's game, and they are predictably losing ground because that's not a solution.
Major parties are playing identity politics, trying to be populistic, bundling nazi ideas as their own, or quite simply not uniting like for example the French left-wing parties did (however short-lived that was). They should be:
and so so much more. A happy, educate populace is much less likely to be duped and and magnitudes less likely to vote against their own interests (like voting for lying politicians or nazis).
donno about Germany, but here in UK the current government is actually putting through unexpected changes, but its probably invisible to general public. news outlets are generally pro conservatives here
We'll see about Germany. I think the last government tried to do stuff but one coalition "partner" cutting away at the coalition's Achilles heel (the budget). The media reporting on Germany also seems to be quite conservative, so a bunch of the good stuff the coalition did was swept under the rug e.g for the first time in decades the German railway infrastructure didn't get worse (it also didn't get better, but at least it didn't get worse).
The graphic that OP posted has the conservatives as the second most popular party, but they were the most popular one after the last elections. It's the same party of Merkel, the same one that was in power for 15 years and didn't improve the country during that entire time, thus planting the seeds for the nazis.
Britain has First Past The Post, a hereditary head of state who has some power (seldom used) to block legislation and no written Constitution.
It isn't quite the opposite of Germany but not far from it.
Up to 49%.
That entirely depends on the other parties.
As long as they have less than 50% the other parties could (in theory) band together against them and create a coalition government.
The problem arises when that coalition has to become more diverse. As you can imagine the populist right would rather work together with the far right than with the populist left, so the coalition becomes shaky, paralyzed because they cannot come to agreements. The common denominator will be so small that basically nothing gets done, and the oppositional party will profit from that.
Shaky coalition governments can lead to government breakups and snap elections which in combination with the resulting loss of trust and inability to do anything of the government will likely lead to an even stronger opposition and even more shaky governments or right out majority for the plurality party.
Also, the leader of the opposition usually chairs important committees like the Budget Committee, the opposition also gets important roles in the committees for Foreign Affairs, Internal Affairs and Defense. It also gets priority in debates, which is usually a good thing, since this works as a check and balance to hold government accountable, but when this role is in the hands of populists, they will certainly use it to further their own narrative.
Ah fuck it let's give the Churches money to build apartments, then. They don't believe in anything anyway so let's just capture a vague sense of conservativeness.
Germany is the America of the EU, especially since Britain left
Well well.. here we go again. I’m ready to give up my life.
We are fucked
We are not. It's just a survey and not a vote result.
My guy. You are not seeing the bigger picture.
The last election was so recent, the new government hasn't even started working yet.
This poll is utterly useless, cause the next election it asks about will be in 4 years.
Yea, the far right nazis have 3.7 more years to boost those numbers even more with their rethoric and propaganda. Great
I am expecting the incoming government to do a much worse job than the outgoing one, regarding actually addressing the underlying structural problems that led us here.
The last election shouldn't even have happened. It only happened because the previous government was unwilling and too incompetent to do their fucking job to the end of their term. And I don't see how the new one will be in any way more competent and/or willing. All they want is to line their pockets.
The previous government failed because the FDP actively worked against it despite being part of it.
The current government doesn't include the FDP.
The current government includes the SPD, which willingly entered into a coalition with the FDP. The CDU is following the same agenda as the FDP. History is repeating itself, just as in the Weimar Republic, none of the established parties are willing and/or able to solve problems that actually matter for the population, creating a giant void in the political landscape that the Nazi scum is happily occupying by simply blaming a convenient scapegoat for the problems and playing the political establishment like a fiddle.
If you ask the population what problems actually matter to them right now, a large part of them will answer "close the borders to protect us from crime".
Which would mean leaving the EU despite the fact that the crime rate is lower than it was in the past.
Or they'll say "make gas cheaper". Which the government can't do without bankrupting itself and would cause loads of other problems.
Then you have a party that promises to solve the problems that are actually behind why people are struggling: the rent crisis, rich people syphoning off all wealth, the cost of living, etc...
That party got 8% of the vote.
How do you solve this in a democracy?
What do you mean by they are not doing enough? They are basically doing nothing else to the point of not actually doing any constructive work anymore.
Every single party is heavily competing about who can move faster to the far-right and parrot nazi narratives louder to get those voters back. And if it totally surprisingly doesn't work (who would have thought that alienating some voters while telling the others that nazi propaganda lies are totally okay as long as they are the ones telling them is the perfect campaign... for the AfD) they double down again and again. 🤡 🤮
It‘s what this headline wants you to feel but it doesn‘t mean that much if you actually think about it for a moment.
I see a growth trend that if it continues will suck even more in a few years
This is the important insight. The absolute numbers in any poll aren't that interesting. The trends are.
What does Bundesreg under Green and SPD mean? Or asked differently... Why doesn't FDP have that text?
Right know Scholz is still chancellor and the old government still in office. This only changes when Merz is voted into office and the new government formed. FDP is not part of the government anymore since the old coalition failed.
☹️
tja
Surprising nobody.
Ha! Suck it Germany! America isn't the only shitty fascist country now.
But they aren't even the ruling party, what are you on about
I've been watching AfD grow for years. They aren't the ruling party now, but will be soon enough. Maybe German democracy is strong enough to resist Fascism, maybe not. Only time will tell for sure.
Strongest Power doesnt mean ruling power here. And they will not get into power unless the Union partys want to betrail all their voters even more than they have always been doing. Which will trigger a full on uprising.
And even if they are in power the states can block almost everything they do. Germanys constitutional court also has lots of say and can stop things and isnt appointed by the partys unlike in the US
I hope you're right but like I said, only time will tell. In 2015 I thought US democracy was enough to hold Donald Trump in check also, but history proved me wrong there. My state is very blue and I think we can effectively resist a lot (but not all) of what he's doing, but that doesn't help other states that want his destruction, or the rest of the world.
That is new information to me, and quite interesting. How do your judges come into power?
Used to be partially threw parliament, partially threw the state council and the current judges also have a say in it. For anew judge it needs 2/3 majority. They are there only for 12 years and cant be reelected. Cant be above 68 neither younger than 40. Plus you have to have to be a judge which is very hard and strictly monitored and served as a highest judge. But last year they changed the voting process with heavy protest of the AfD. We have 2 supremecourt councils each made up of 8 judges. Plus the president also has a say. Its very complicated. But as you see the AfD would have to rule all of germany and every german state AND have enought judges in their ranks for over 10 years to yield hitler power levels.
Doesnt mean they cant do heavy damage already once in charge. But they wont be able to change voting laws or the distribution of power for example.
Germanys federalism is blessing and a big safe guard, but also that federalism brings huge headach and makes change really really slow.