Spyke

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Gulf Stream current could collapse in 2025, plunging Earth into climate chaos: 'We were actually bewildered'

TL;DR: New statistical model suggests that the AMOC (including gulf stream) could collapse to the much slower pattern by 2025 to 2095. This is a century earlier than previous predictions and the researchers were concerned. There is some questions on the accuracy of the model used, and that needs more research.

Personally I don't think we should wait for further testing to vet the model before acting. Try to do better now.

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Google urges US lawmakers not to ban teenagers from social media.

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This is a response to the very bad kids online safety act. See EFF's post for details on why it is bad: https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2022/03/kids-online-safety-act-heavy-handed-plan-force-platforms-spy-young-people

EFF's article is better, but here are some of the details of why it is bad. The effect of kids online safety act will be censorship and tracking of kids online when research suggests that is counterproductive for the age group being added. Would require more detailed tracking of everyone, not just kids. Services likely would need to block certain content from everyone to reduce liability to a reasonable level. They would potentially be liable if kids got access to content even when it wasn't for kids no matter how the kids got access (lying, using someone else's account, bypassing filters, etc.). Content to be blocked is vague and open to be interpretation by the most conservative people in the US, which is obviously problematic. The previous COPPA needs updating, but the version of kids online safety act has so far been financially flawed.

plex

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Streaming media company Plex raises new funds as it nears profitability

You know what would be a killer feature?

Being able to buy movies without DRM crap at full resolution (blu-ray or 4k HDR) at a reasonable price (same or less than physical media) that includes extras. Extra points if everything is already named and in the correct folder layout to just drop it on the server in the right folder. Extra Extra points if Plex manages the download in the background and puts it in the right place when finished, or an incoming folder that awaits approval. Even several hours or more to download it would be fine (just make download resumable).

(yes I know this is exceedingly unlikely to happen, but we can dream)

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How do you prep in a power outage due to an over-capacity system and the heat/humidity combination is no longer compatible with human life?

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It isn't the temperature, it's the humidity.

Wet bulb is a way measure how much evaporative cooling you can have. Once wet bulb gets to 95°F even a healthy fit individual will die given enough time even in the shade with a fan. It might be 112 but as long as the wet bulb stays below 95°F your body can cool with sweat. Any higher wet bulb the human body only heats up from the environment and can no longer cool, eventually leading to fatal hyperthermia (heat exhaustion and heat stroke).

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Sony is erasing digital libraries that were supposed to be accessible “forever”

This is why we prefer to buy physical media, getting a digital with it is nice, but physical is key.

It wasn't even me was pushing for us to get physical media, it was my spouse. Of course my plex server the house probably helped. But after a few "forever" is only until next month, or shows completely disappearing altogether from any streaming, they started pushing for more physical media.

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Disney has announced it will stop releasing DVDs and Blu-ray discs in Australia.

This is problematic. Australia and New Zealand are in Region 4, I suspect this is killing all of region 4 (Australia, New Zealand, the Pacific Islands, Central America, Mexico, South America, and the Caribbean). This means they cannot watch at the highest quality, none of the streaming services are as good as a local blu-ray or local Plex/Jellyfin/Emby. Also problematic for preservation, especially given services removing content so it is no longer available at all.

If I could buy unencumbered digital files for my local server, I wouldn't have that much problem with discontinuing physical releases. Instead best case I can get it a digital "copy" that is tied to a specific service (movies anywhere, google play, apple, etc.). Which content has also been removed from, even though you bought it. I've been buying DRM free music for around a decade and things have been fine. I would have to think really hard of the last time I bought a CD, as I've been buying flac encoded audio exclusively for a few years now (bandcamp.com, us.7digital.com, prostudiomasters.com, hdtracks.com). I'd really like to do the same for movies and series, including extras.

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U.S. Air Force Selects Fast Microreactor for Nuclear Power Pilot

This is very good. Oklo is specifically aiming to provide power with minimal maintenance to remote areas that otherwise wouldn't have power. This contract is a very good testbed for the technology before being deployed to remote areas.

There have been research reactor that have been run successfully that cannot meltdown like Fukushima, Chernobyl, or Three Mile Island. Oklo is a fast reactor of similar design. Such reactor designs often will cool down and the nuclear reaction stop even when completely losing all coolant and power. They fundamentally cannot get into a positive feedback loop like an reactors that are have been run commercially. I'm unsure how long Oklo's nuclear waste is dangerous, but some fast reactors can actually be used to burn up waste from other reactors making. Their waste is dangerous for a few hundred years, instead of the tens of thousands of years of other reactors.

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[News] Pentagon warns of disruptions as Army, Marines both lack confirmed leaders for first time

This has been going on since February because one Senator Tuberville has blocked voting on military promotions in groups. They senate votes on them in groups because voting on each on individually would take far too long, around 2-3 days per nomination. So with 270+ that would likely take all the the senate's time well into next year. His answer has been that he isn't blocking anything, and that Democrats can bring the individual nominations up for a vote but they don't want to. Which at best is disingenuous, if not out right lying.

He's blocking this all because of abortion. The military has said it will allow and support personal (or family) to travel to another state to get an abortion if they are stationed in one that does not allow it.

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Anthony Fauci’s Deceptions

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Cause it is trash.

Media Bias doesn't seem to have an entry for thefp.com, which is a red flag. That the website calls themselves the free press and has nothing to do with the Free Press organization, sure seems like they are trying to confuse that on purpose. Using a Rand Paul comment as a source in support of an article problematic (he's a real life unreliable narrator and one of many idiots in congress). The current house subcommittee the article relies on has been criticized for good reason. Lots of opinion mixed in that is not commentary on the facts. Self citation isn't the win they think it is with the other issues.

Could the article be right? Sure. Is this an article that would convince me of that? No. An article with reputation of reporting from the center, or near center, with the same or similar conclusions and the it is worth discussion. Otherwise this article was a waste of storage and time.

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Gem Hunters Found the Lithium America Needs. Maine Won’t Let Them Dig It Up

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It is destructive to the environment.

The real question is if it is worth the damage to the environment for the lithium? That lithium will make it possible to make more batteries for less money, which then less fossil fuels and more renewables can be used over the entire life of the battery. Further if we start recycling lithium batteries completely, then it is the improvement across the lives of all the batteries made from that lithium minus any damage to the environment caused be recycle each generation of batteries.

For Maine they probably will not see enough of an improvements directly. For the US we might see enough improvements elsewhere to make it worthwhile. For the world we probably would be a net gain of environmental improvement.

The longer the timeframe the lithium can be used to lessen climate change impacts (batteries for cars and renewables) the more likely even Maine would see a net positive versus the damage of mining the lithium to begin with. But that is very hard to quantify and even harder to predict the future (new battery tech might displace current lithium batteries).

world

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Third of Japan's 18-year-old women may never have children: study

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Economic collapse, to a greater or lesser extant depending on how fast adjustments are made. Though in some cases adjustments cannot be made. Worst case societal collapse (think violent revolution).

Pretty much the entire world economy is based on growth. Individual countries economies for the most part are also based on growth. In either case part of the growth is in population so there are more consumers. Additional most societal institutions and jobs require having a certain number of people to function for everyone. Different countries have different critical jobs and institutions. Care for older population is a big one in most places, doctors, nurses, in home care, and people to do things for the old they can't do anymore. Too few young people means likely too few of those people to take care of older population. That in turn either means the state has to pay more to get more people in those jobs, or care falls upon family which can force them to work less (or quit completely). More money spent by government means less spent somewhere else, some of that will be critical or at least inconvenient for someone. Family working less, or quitting altogether, means they are no longer adding to the economy and become a drag. Further a ballooning older population can lead to a drastic drop in tax revenue and compound the drag on the economy they are already having. GDP can drop which can devalue a currency, then leading to increased costs for imports and borrowing. This can further discourage people who would otherwise have children to not have any. Once this gets into a positive feedback loop it can continue to get worse faster than a society can adjust.

Everything is interconnected in our economy inside any one country, but also across the entire world. A positive feedback loop (like the mortgage crisis the US) can lead to a recession, or worse a depression. Then people are out of work and might not be able to afford the means to continue living, they then can become desperate. This can lead to a crisis and even revolutions (has happened before).

Too big a drop in population guarantied to cause societal collapse? Of course not. It doesn't even guarantee economic collapse, might just be a recession where most people survive fine in the long term. It might all be fine. What the outcome is really depends on how well positive feed back loops caused by a drop in population are handled, and if they happen slow enough they can be handled. Lots of the Western world is in trouble, but a population drop might help climate change, it also might not if a positive feedback loop (permafrost methane) starts accelerating climate change.

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*Permanently Deleted*

Long term what matters is if enough people leave to grow a replacement community elsewhere. It doesn't take that many people, just takes enough of the right people. It will be slow at first until suddenly it isn't. I've seen it happen in discord groups I've been in where an admin was a creep, and a couple people left then suddenly everyone left. It has been happening for longer than we've called it social media. If Reddit is lucky it wont be noticeable before their IPO, but given Fidelity downgrading the value of their holdings it probably already has.

Looking at some of these I'd guess history is repeating itself: