Spyke

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Putin’s plane has left Moscow for St. Petersburg. Looks like he is fleeing from the advancing Wagner Group military column

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Historically smart money is, far away from large population centers. There's a reason the French monarchy was forced to stay in Paris during the revolution.

Other smart moves would probably be - lose the controversial defense minister, blame it all on him, put Prigozhin in a prestigious but far-away position, wind the war down slowly while trying to find a "Mission Accomplished" moment to try and cool things down with the west, etc.

Almost nobody in a position of power actually does the smart thing in these situations, though. So, my popcorn is ready today. 🍿

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Megatopic: Wagner marches to Rostov-on-don (possibly beyond?)

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It's a tactic as old as rebellion too, though.

"I'm a loyal follower of his majesty, it's the good king's advisors poisoning his mind!"

And then you ride that wave of legitimacy and popular policy (We're gonna stop sending your kids to die for no reason!) into, well, something. Either power, force a compromise, or a horrible death. Seems like that last one was coming from all sides so why not gamble?

Either way I do not believe this is some 4D chess move by Putin. He could leave Ukraine today, throw a parade claiming victory, and I imagine the average Russian would just be glad it's over.

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