Even more households are falling behind on their supersized mortgage payments. Canadian Bankers Association (CBA) data shows the mortgage arrears rate climbed in May. Mortgages at least 90 days past due have more than doubled since 2022, pushing the rate just shy of a decade high. New mortgage originations are also failing to offset outflows, already wiping out most of 2020’s low-rate growth.

The mortgage arrears count rose 2.3% to 14,061 in May, up 27.2% from last year and the most since 2014. However, annual growth is the detail worth paying attention to, as only one month in the past decades has been bigger (August 2024).

This growth rate was last consistently seen between 2008 and 2010, and is rare outside of a recession.