Remember, as shown by 2008, the government can just arbitrarily print money to cover the crash. Which will crash the dollar and the Euro, and even China doesn't want this because they have a huge reserve of dollars. So they'll probably step in as they did last time to mitigate it. Hell, they even stepped in to save the oil economy after the Iran fiasco.
His value hinges on the value of these companies. It will later hinge on the value his companies had, and then the next incredibly insane thing his sycophants lap up
I wouldn't wish what I suspect is coming for some of these greedy robber baron assholes on any living thing that can feel pain... but I kind of hope it gets caught on film for future generations to learn from.
At that scale, it's everywhere, state pension systems, life insurance, our 401ks, etc are all invested in these private credit companies. They're going to use this to demand bailouts.
I wonder if we could collectively push the funds to divest from closed book financial companies
You're correct from my assessment. It has always been kicking the can down the road. Eventually the bill comes due. Realistically the sooner the better, but we live in crazy corruption, so it only crashes when retail investors and the common folk hold the bag and not a second sooner.
Bailouts have not been the worst thing. The lack of stipulations and not marching the c-suite through the streets in rags needs to be fixed, but overall it's even money for the fed that keeps people working - https://projects.propublica.org/bailout/list I am a big puzzled why several extremely profitable companies are still in the red. Seems like the feds should just take the money with a hefty fee for making them wait.
So what will everyone go to ollama or whatever china is cooking up because their approach seems to be lower hardware demands? Chuddies aren’t going back to writing their own emails anymore
Even in the "best" case this is a speculative market that has nowhere near the value they are placing on it.
Most of the projects will fail, and someone will be left holding the bag, but thanks to how corporations take all the profit but bear none of the responsibility it won't be them.
I want the bubble to burst too, but the reality is that LLMs ARE useful, can be very useful in certain tasks, but not at the level everyone was expecting. This bubble won't burst, but it will deflate a bit, not as much as we'd want. It's here to stay i'm afraid.
LLMs will remain, the tech is out there and plenty of open models and weights won't disappear with the demise of OpenAI and Anthropic.
However, the bubbe will cause severe economic troubles to several companies, not only tech - banks, pension and insurance funds that are buying into the datacenter hype will find themselves with no ROI once said datacenters come online. 1.65 fucking trillion dollars in debt isn't something that can be handwaved away, and that's the debt held by, effectively, a dozen companies that are failing to get anywhere near enough revenue, or growth, to justify that colossal spending.
can be very useful in certain tasks, but not at the level everyone was expecting. This bubble won’t burst, but it will deflate a bit
I almost got whiplash reading this.
Yes, you are correct, generative AI is useful for some tasks. Not at the level everyone was expecting is somewhat of an understatement, as, for example, the SpaceX IPO estimated LLM would be worth roughly 200x what even rose-colored projections of the entire LLM market predict. And that's one company versus the entire market. Being overvalued by 200x does cause bubbles to deflate A BIT.
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Remember, as shown by 2008, the government can just arbitrarily print money to cover the crash. Which will crash the dollar and the Euro, and even China doesn't want this because they have a huge reserve of dollars. So they'll probably step in as they did last time to mitigate it. Hell, they even stepped in to save the oil economy after the Iran fiasco.
Sounds very Enron.
Enron hid much of its debt by calling it 'preferred shares' issued to creditors, just straight up lying.
From what I understand, the main difference between what they are doing and Enron, is that they've had 25+ years to lobby Congress to make it legal.
Lying? They'd never!
2007: human housing bubble collapses
2027: AI model housing bubble collapses
just luiqdate Musk and some others to offset this debt.
Liquefy him too for good measure
Yus pls
Curious if they could even get 100bil out of his assets.
His value hinges on the value of these companies. It will later hinge on the value his companies had, and then the next incredibly insane thing his sycophants lap up
I wouldn't wish what I suspect is coming for some of these greedy robber baron assholes on any living thing that can feel pain... but I kind of hope it gets caught on film for future generations to learn from.
At that scale, it's everywhere, state pension systems, life insurance, our 401ks, etc are all invested in these private credit companies. They're going to use this to demand bailouts.
I wonder if we could collectively push the funds to divest from closed book financial companies
You're correct from my assessment. It has always been kicking the can down the road. Eventually the bill comes due. Realistically the sooner the better, but we live in crazy corruption, so it only crashes when retail investors and the common folk hold the bag and not a second sooner.
If we don't, there just won't be a market, anymore.
I stopped telling colleagues to "invest at least 10%" and "at least get the 401k match, it's free money" about three years ago.
After this bubble bursts, I'm honestly not even sure the concept of 401ks will survive.
The future of common people's investing is very possibly only in gold chains and under mattresses.
Bailouts have not been the worst thing. The lack of stipulations and not marching the c-suite through the streets in rags needs to be fixed, but overall it's even money for the fed that keeps people working - https://projects.propublica.org/bailout/list I am a big puzzled why several extremely profitable companies are still in the red. Seems like the feds should just take the money with a hefty fee for making them wait.
So what will everyone go to ollama or whatever china is cooking up because their approach seems to be lower hardware demands? Chuddies aren’t going back to writing their own emails anymore
Even in the "best" case this is a speculative market that has nowhere near the value they are placing on it.
Most of the projects will fail, and someone will be left holding the bag, but thanks to how corporations take all the profit but bear none of the responsibility it won't be them.
I don't even think it's worth the mystery of using the word 'someone'.
Some of them will lose, and some "investors" will go dead broke.
It's never everyone one would wish it could be, of course.
Can’t wait for this to burst so I can finally afford avocado toast again /s & also we’re fucked regardless
Time is a flat circle.
So only the lenders and borrowers are gonna loose out on this mega bet, right?
The debt is circular. All of the bad faith actors in the field are both lenders and borrowers.
It survives for now. But it will crash and burn eventually.
I want the bubble to burst too, but the reality is that LLMs ARE useful, can be very useful in certain tasks, but not at the level everyone was expecting. This bubble won't burst, but it will deflate a bit, not as much as we'd want. It's here to stay i'm afraid.
LLMs will remain, the tech is out there and plenty of open models and weights won't disappear with the demise of OpenAI and Anthropic.
However, the bubbe will cause severe economic troubles to several companies, not only tech - banks, pension and insurance funds that are buying into the datacenter hype will find themselves with no ROI once said datacenters come online. 1.65 fucking trillion dollars in debt isn't something that can be handwaved away, and that's the debt held by, effectively, a dozen companies that are failing to get anywhere near enough revenue, or growth, to justify that colossal spending.
I almost got whiplash reading this.
Yes, you are correct, generative AI is useful for some tasks. Not at the level everyone was expecting is somewhat of an understatement, as, for example, the SpaceX IPO estimated LLM would be worth roughly 200x what even rose-colored projections of the entire LLM market predict. And that's one company versus the entire market. Being overvalued by 200x does cause bubbles to deflate A BIT.
The web didn't go away when the web hype bubble burst. But it changed a great deal, and a bunch of suckers got to be very broke.
This bubble is much bigger, and will hurt much worse when it goes.
Meta just took at 11% stock price bit for saying "we still think AI is a good idea". This bubble is right on the precipice.
Maybe it can stay irrational for a bit longer, but it doesn't look good at all.