Yeah I mean, besides the fact that yes, this is one pole and the ways that we conduct poles has become increasingly incapable of predicting the actual outcomes of elections, Canadians were already trending toward the PC before the Trump business last year. The reason these parties resort to culture war, genocidal rhetoric is because it works in countries like the US and Canada where you can win elections with a minority vote by appealing to a sparse population primarily comprised of politically illiterate white settlers.

Go talk to blue collar workers outside of metro areas and, even if they understand that capitalism is bad, they'll articulate their frustration in terms of a vague "elite" of especially greedy capitalists that are the real problem, and many of them are already primed to believe that this "elite" will betray the white nationality of this country to achieve their goals; i.e. "they'll have too many immigrants and woke policies that hurt the economy." Since Liberals (and liberals) are also neoliberal trash people, these blue collar workers will also correctly see that any talk of social justice or national improvement is merely disingenous advertising to mask the continued extraction of public wealth into the hands of property-owning classes. Carney's admin won on anti-Trump rhetoric alone, and because most Canadians didn't think that the imperialism could affect them, they were quick to associate the culture war shit with Republican talking points even though they did not fundamentally disagree with those values by any means. Now that Carney, neolib final boss that he is, is enacting the exact kind of policies he ran on and is funneling money into private corporations as capitalism goes off the rails, many of them will simply take the worse option that they wanted in the first place anyway since they appeal to their catharsis. Combine this with the continued nonsense of Liberal voters who insist on splitting votes in ridings that would have no chance of electing a PC MP anyway, and even the more secure urban NDP ridings have a worse chance at reelection (I saw two generational NDP ridings go Con for the first time in my entire life just because people were "strategically" voting in ridings that had gone decades without a Liberal or Con MP).

Anyone who is a target of the genocide rhetoric applied by the PC and Republican parties should remember that most Canadians were willing to sacrifice you to get rid of Trudeau's admin just over a year ago. These people haven't changed, and god knows they aren't getting better information.