In 2017 Trump started with an economy that was doing ok after 8 years of Obama. In 2025 Trump started with an economy that was shaky at best.

Because both January and February are traditionally slow months, but next year will be worse than normal. My guess is that there will be a lot of firing, in part because many businesses will be slow, and second because they can't afford to hold people on for things to look up in in March/spring, and third because many probably will be skeptical that things will look up enough to keep people on anyway.

But all in all it's mostly a gut feeling from 30 years in business, and although I am not American, I know business in USA is harsher regarding these things than what is normal in Europe.

I predict the shit will hit the fan about March, give or take a month or so. High heating bills, skyrocketing insurance, and food prices coupled with a collapsing economy and loan defaults will drive the country into a deep depression. Not to mention the political shit-show that is deteriorating fast.

Well done, keep it up. 👍
I already didn't use any American services much except Steam, and although it is American, Steam has been fair and has done tremendous work for Linux, which helps independence from plethora of other American companies. So I'm still using Steam.

But I'm not buying a lot of American goods I used to like: Californian wine, Bourbon, Heinz (Kraft), Palmolive, Gillette, Coca Cola. Marabou (also Kraft), Some times when I'm in doubt I read the label, that's not enough to detect a company like Marabou or cloth softeners that have local names and are made in France but owned by Palmolive, our replacement for that is Noora that is made by a Spanish company. Wife doesn't want the cheap brands. 😋

In short I'm personally going to great lengths to avoid American brands even when they are made in Europe. If I can get a true European product or from another democracy than USA I go for that. We are keeping it up as long as USA is acting crazy, and I hope enough people are doing it to make it noticeable for American companies.

Plus: many people who can avoid travelling to the USA are actively avoiding that, given the new plans for entry requirements. If everyone wanting to enter on a tourist visa will have to figuratively undress completely regarding their online and communication activities, nobody sane will go there for fun anymore.

I take packets of free mayo, ketchup, mustard, and hot sauce from the work cafeteria everyday. I haven't bought those condiments in ages.

Yes in principle, except USA has very low export of goods compared to the size of the economy.
So it will stimulate exports some. But despite the decline of the dollar happened already this year, the export of goods has declined anyway. Because Trump is a moron and has made everybody angry with USA.
The weak dollar has NOT increased exports, but together with tariffs it has caused inflation to be a higher than it otherwise would have been. And the weak dollar is caused by a lack of capital influx (investments) to USA, and less investments means fewer new jobs.

That means nothing when you've alienated all your trading partners, and your trading partners are boycotting the products you make.

What evidence do you have to disprove it?

Exit polls 2024: Deep economic discontent with Biden drove voters to Trump

The economy remains a key irritant. Voters say it's in bad shape by 67%-32%. And 45% say their own financial situation is worse now than four years ago, versus 30% the same, with just 24% doing better. The "worse off" number exceeds its 2008 level, then 42%, and far outpaces its shares in 2020 (20%) and 2016 (28%).

Trump is more trusted than Harris on immigration and the economy in the preliminary exit polls while Harris leads Trump in trust on abortion.