Goldman Sachs sees Trump tariffs spiking inflation, stunting growth and raising recession risks
KEY POINTS
- Goldman Sachs expects aggressive duties from the White House to raise inflation and unemployment and drag economic growth to a near-standstill.
- In a note Sunday, the firm said “we continue to believe the risk from April 2 tariffs is greater than many market participants have previously assumed.”
- The firm raised its forecast for inflation this year to 3.5%, cut its GDP outlook to just 1% and raised its unemployment view to 4.5%.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/30/tariffs-to-spike-inflation-stunt-growth-and-raise-recession-risks-goldman-says-.htmlOpen linkView original on lemmy.world
49 replies
Please call it The Trumpcession.
I guess we could just call bankrupting anything from now on “going in the orange”. You know when you’re so far in the red your only choice is to turn into a fascist and begin killing immigrants you’re probably in the orange
The Republican Depression or Trump Depression. The Republican dust bowl also.
I already coined it The Great Repression
And if it goes beyond a recession, we can call it a Trumpression.
I'm trumpressed
Trump’s gonna call it a fire sale. Him and his buddies will just get more powerful.
The Trump Slump!
Economists do not usually speak in black and white terms like this.
Our economy is in for a bloodletting.
Make people desperate,
They'll more likely go to war.
nah, they don't even know which direction to point those boomboom sticks, but probably Biden
I accidentally got some of the crazy content in my feed; it seems they want to arrest Fauci.
clearly, Fauci created COVID which is a bioweapon that isn't serious enough to employ biodefense measures against including barriers (masking) and immunizations (vaccinate), but serious enough to have triggered a recession that the present trump slump is fixing, etc. So yeah clearly Fauci's fault.
Nah, just say that Hussein Obama did it or something stupid like that, say it's open season on the treacherous libs and they'll happily make another Kristallnacht because that is how stupid they are. They'll follow Cheeto straight into hell and then he'll abandon them there and they'll still blame Obama because please do not expect these people to have a shred of dignity to say "I was wrong"
Revolutions need organization. Organization needs third spaces were people can meet, discuss, and organize. Most of the US has basically no third spaces outside of churches, and this is very much by design.
It is almost like our glorious leader is an idiot.
Or he wants to destroy America. Then he is brilliant.
You are both correct.
tRUMP is clearly, clearly an idiot. However his glorious leader, putin, must be considered brilliant to do what he's done.
He's completely evil, etc, but he can die happy knowing of the damage he's done to the USA (and other countries) will be felt for decades.
I hate them both with a passion, but you've got to give credit where it is due.
(He's also damaged Russia for decades to come)
Glad to know that GS is catching up with every other financial advisor and most of the logical everyday people who understand that making things more expensive tends to make people's financial situation worse.
I bet before the end of the day we'll hear about how Goldman Sachs, of all places, is full of RADICAL LIBERALS and has gone WOKE!
We jumped the shark when they called the FBI "woke leftists" however many years ago that was.
That was in February
I'm really talking about the Mara Lago raid in 2023.
This is entirely a self-own by donvict and his stupid sycophants. He was handed an economy that had so many great indicators and within mere weeks, was able to fuck it up.
Heckuva job, donnie.
So why aren't the big players on Wall Street raising hell over this?
They have lots of liquidity and are willing to take the hit to buy more at lower prices.
they're are vultures, hoping to buy low and sell high.
The trump regime was designed to TANK the US economy so that stocks, businesses, and industries can be bought by billionaires at rock bottom prices.
All is going according to plan.
Trump is trying to harm the economy of all the allies of USA, because reasons.
The strategy is to commit economic suicide, to prove the dependency on USA.
The plan is flawless if you don't give a shit about anything, except creating attention for yourself.
More and more I feel like he's just trying to get us embroiled in something that provides cover for him to ratchet into the next slot of dictator. If he can get a real crisis on his hands he's plausibly cleared for all sorts of seemingly desperate measures. Such as third terms, and criminalization of "sentiments" ("doesn't like me" turns into "supports the enemy", opposition turns into enemy, temporary emergency actions turn into permanent dictatorship).
The plan is flawless if you don't give a shit about anything, except creating wealth and power for yourself.
And that's without taking into account the crashes to come when there will be a correction after all the shady stuff done by the financial sector when there no longer is any agency capable of supervising them. That will likely have planetary repercussions,.
or the persistent international distrust Trump has carved towards the USA for decades to come
No fucking shit
Even now we could stop doing idiotic things and we might recover in a few years? But if we continue, we'll run out of every single company's rainy day fund. At that point in the not too distant future we'll start seeing one no-name company go belly up. Then a few days later two, then the next day ten, then 200. Finally we'll be in a deepest recession ever. People will be jumping out of buildings.
I mean lots of companies are declaring bankruptcy already
Seriously, all of those companies listed have various quality issues that seem to stem for poor policy and a 'profit at all cost' mentality.
Ever been to a hooters that didn't have a parking lot that was falling apart, or tables and machines that look to have been needing repairs for years? The details might not matter to every consumer, but I know I'd rather visit the restaurant that at least tries to keep up appearances.
Wow I'd never considered that with Hooters but now that you mention it, every Hooters I've been in (only 2 of them) has been kind of dark and dirty looking like a 1980s era Pizza Hut.
Ah yes, when Trump does his own research.
Meanwhile, anyone with a halfway decent high-school education, knows this is what happens when you engage in a trade war with all your major trading partners.
As does much of his cabinet, it seems. That, or if they know better, they are too afraid and power-seeking to counter even the very stupidest of his "ideas".
And this is the Fart of the Deal... inhale Muricans
Translation: hey rich customers, fire sale and reason to lay off your highest-paid employees incoming!
Remember, they and the people who listen to them wanted this.
They don't understand just how bad it's going to get. It's going to make 1929 look like playtime.
Yeah, but 1929 was actually fine for the richest families. Plenty of wealthy people got even richer.
You’ll notice the language in that article describing the success of the businessmen is stock-market-bro speak for ‘gobbled up businesses for pennies on the dollar thanks to the depression, then rode out the storm and made bank’.
Lots of guys on the market these days dreaming of building empires that way.
Notice I said worse than 1929. Regardless we are both just speculating at this point.
You seem to just want to win a non-existent argument, so you win.
That only works if you are expecting a rebound... the way Trump is going about this, who the hell would trust a single word of a trade deal with USA?
People who want money or resources. You have to remember though, these aren’t the brilliant businessmen they think they are.
Most of these rich people are rich through family and luck, and believe they have magical powers to resurrect businesses and economies with a snap of their fingers.
They think they’ll just put everything back together with them at the top. They really have no idea how they’ll do that, of course.
Those same people do not want the carpet pulled from under them on a whim
Anybfitire deal with the USA will have that risk priced in and not likely to ve as favorable as whatever was there before. This is exactly why third world countries have a hard time attacking investment and when they do, they basically get gangbanged