Joining China's Belt and Road was an 'atrocious' decision, Italian minister says
The decision to join the Silk Road multiplied China's exports to Italy but did not have the same effect on Italian exports to China, Italian Defence Minister Guido Crosetto said. "The issue today is: how to walk back [from the BRI] without damaging relations [with Beijing], because it is true that China is a competitor, but it is also a partner," Crosetto added. Italy signed up to the BRI under a previous government, becoming the only major Western country to have taken such a step.
https://www.reuters.com/world/joining-chinas-belt-road-was-an-atrocious-decision-italy-minister-2023-07-30/Open linkView original on feddit.de162
Comments28
Well color me surprised (no)
I’m sure the politicians who sold out their people are doing nicely for themselves.
Surely a coincidence
It's crazy to me for how slowly people are getting the wake up call on what was obviously a debt trap from the start. Corrupt politicians have sold their people out for a briefcase full of money and some folks are still defending it because they simply refuse to face the truth. I know it's hard to admit you got scammed but damn.
Which is exactly what Beijing bet on from the beginning. You see the way Beijing handles these things is by getting a harbor or two and maybe a military base in your country.
You underestimate the Chinese craving for admiration. The belt and road initiative was mainly that: A signal to the people in China that said "We are back on the world stage and now we are the guys that help others to develop". Sure, it may also have been debt trap, but other than populist voices like to portray it, that was not the actual goal.
I stand by my obversavtion that China never meant to help anyone but themselves and it was always designed as a scam. It's never really been about admiration as they never actually tried to gain it. It's just mountains of empty promises from the start. They do care a lot about 'saving face' but that has a different meaning than true admiration. Many economic experts have warned about the BRI early on. Even those who had otherwise good things to say about China. That project stood out as being primed for a scam from the very beginning.
A scam may constitute of a contract based on asymmetric information or on the willfull misleading by one-party about their desire to fulfill. You can call it many things, and judge it however you like, but it does not qualify as a scam by any definition that I could think of. Surely: the benefits may be heavily skewed to the Chinese side. However, they made an offer that was easy to reject.
Not familiar with the terms of the BRI, is there any notion of minimum export/import ratio? Can't they export Ferraris, haute couture or other luxury Italian goods there?
Of course, they could. China seems to be more interested in gaining influence over its BRI partners' economies than in mutual trade, though. Italy's sentiment is here in line with practically all other nations that joined China's BRI.
Here are two articles, with several examples of how China is using the BRI as a tool to put other countries in its debt.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/its-debt-trap-managing-china-imf-cooperation-across-belt-and-road
https://intpolicydigest.org/the-economic-impact-of-china-s-belt-and-road-initiative/
It's a capitalistic economic colonialism. They've learned so much from the west. They must be so proud to have completely abandoned communism in favor of capitalism.
Found the CCP bootlicking stooge.
You're right, reddit DOES seem to be leaking idiots!
@AreaSix
Not long ago, the Albanian PM made similar remarks about the BRI, in Kenya you can see negative effects on workers' rights and Kenya's economic policy, Pakistan has already been an example why the project so badly fails some time ago.
China has been bailing out its own banks as the 'partner countries' could not pay their debts anymore given the partners could not benefit from their BRI projects. And the conditions for these bail-outs are far worse than what the IMF would charge in similar circumstances. While the IMF interest rates are 2%, China charges 5%.
You'll find much more information on the web. There is plenty of evidence.
Thank you for this, I don't know why you are getting downvoted
Have you ever fucking googled? What kind of Karen shit are you on?
GiVe mE tHrEe eXaMpLeS oR iM tElLiNg
Exports aside, Ferrari will only sell their new cars to certain people. & wealth isn't really a consideration so much as the absolute lowest bar.
Congrats you missed the point entirely
The whole Belt and Road initiative is effectively a scam and I'm amazed how many countries think they want in on it
Most chinese people are not going to buy Italian luxury goods But a ton of Italians will happily buy super cheap Chinese stuff
Rich people are going to buy the Ferrari and other luxury stuff even without this whole thing
So effectively again so many countries are hoping to break into the Chinese market only to pay for a big portion of the construction and gain close to nothing from it
With the increased purchasing power in China's upper middle class, you might imagine they could import some fancy Italian clothes, but I guess there is no way this would compensate the amount of Chinese good that Italians are importing
I'm not saying that BRI involvement is a positive for Italy, but balance of trade isn't normally the metric one would expect to use for determining whether a project is a good idea for a country.
That's for two reasons.
First: the trade balance with the rest of the world.
When a country exports, it will normally maintain a long-run trade equilibrium with the rest of the world. If I run a persistent trade deficit, then my currency will tend to weaken; my wages will fall in real terms. It will become harder for me to import (since it's harder for me to afford the things I want from abroad) and easier for me to export (since my labor costs parties abroad less). If I run a persistent trade surplus, then my currency will tend to strengthen, and the reverse happens.
Second, even aside from that, there's nothing intrinsically problematic in running a trade deficit with specific trade partner; one will tend to run a surplus with another partner in that case. Country A can be a net exporter to Country B, Country B to Country C, and Country C to Country A. In fact, it'd probably be a bit odd if all countries maintained a neutral trade balance with each other; the gains in trade leverages comparative advantage, and unless each country produces the thing that it is particularly good at producing in relative terms and that thing is wanted by other parties in equal ratios, you would expect imbalances with individual trade partners to exist.
In Italy's case, true, there are a few more complications because Italy is on the euro, but the same process happens, albeit less smoothly.
The way to win via trade isn't via trying to run a persistent trade surplus with the rest of the world. Take a hypothetical world where a country banned imports, but exports were still permitted. People in that country either (less-efficiently) produce what they would have imported from the rest of the world, or simply go without. Over time, it will become harder and harder to export as the currency strengthens, and those exports will come to a trickle, and then stop, and you have an autarky.
A country overall wins via trade when it leverages comparative advantage -- trying to get a given thing that one wants produced as efficiently as possible, and leveraging the fact that different countries can produce things more-efficiently. All else held equal, it tends to want fairly unrestricted trade to do that, including imports.
There are deviations from that. National security may be an externality. I may not want to rely on importing a strategic resource like steel from a country that might be my opponent in a war, for example. But the goal isn't normally to try to maximize net exports.
A couple of hundred years back, the idea that that was how one maximized a country's advantage was kind of common in Europe; that was mercantilism. But that was debunked hundreds of years ago.
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Thank you for this post!
China being selfish?
Thats new. Completely shocking news!
I hope for everyone involved that the EU finally takes a deeper look at the Balkan. They are making themselfs even more reliant on China and EU ignores it, which is a problem for them and a problem for EU.