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Abstract

Recent Earth energy budget observations show an increase in the sunlight absorbed by the Earth of 0.45 W/m2 per decade, caused primarily by a decrease in cloud reflection. Here we decompose the solar radiative budget trends into general circulation and cloud controlling process components. Regimes representing the midlatitude and tropical storm zones are defined, and the trends in the areal coverage of those regimes which are potentially induced by circulation changes are separated from trends in the cloud radiative effect within each regime which are potentially induced by changes in local cloud controlling processes. The regime area change component, which manifests itself as a contraction of the midlatitude and tropical storm regimes, constitutes the largest contribution to the solar absorption trend, causing decreased sunlight reflection of 0.37 W/m2 per decade. This result provides a crucial missing piece in the puzzle of the 21st century increase of the Earth's solar absorption.

Key Points

Satellite observations show that in the past 24 years the worlds storm cloud zones have been contracting at a rate of 1.5%–3% per decade

This contraction allows more solar radiation to reach the Earth's surface and constitutes the largest contribution to the observed 21st century trend of increased solar absorption

Plain Language Summary

Analysis of satellite observations shows that in the past 24 years the Earth's storm cloud zones in the tropics and the middle latitudes have been contracting at a rate of 1.5%–3% per decade. This cloud contraction, along with cloud cover decreases at low latitudes, allows more solar radiation to reach the Earth's surface. When the contribution of all cloud changes is calculated, the storm cloud contraction is found to be the main contributor to the observed increase of the Earth's solar absorption during the 21st century.

Abstract

Most oceans over the globe have experienced surface warming during the past century, but the subpolar Atlantic is quite otherwise. The sea surface temperature cooling trend to the south of Greenland, known as the North Atlantic Warming Hole, has raised debate over whether it is driven by the slowing of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Here we use observations as a benchmark and climate models as a tool to demonstrate that only models simulating a weakened historical Atlantic overturning can broadly reproduce the observed cooling and freshening in the warming hole region. This, in turn, indicates that the realistic Atlantic overturning slowed between 1900 and 2005, at a rate of −1.01 to −2.97 Sv century−1 (1 Sv = 106 m3 s−1), according to a sea-surface-temperature-based fingerprint index estimate. Particularly, the Atlantic overturning slowdown causes an oceanic heat transport divergence across the subpolar North Atlantic, which, while partially offset by enhanced ocean heat uptake, results in cooling over the warming hole region.

Abstract

The North Atlantic Ocean has large seasonal blooms rich in diatoms and dinoflagellates which can contribute disproportionately relative to other primary producers to export production and transfer of resources up the food web. Here we analyze data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder to reconstruct variation in the surface ocean diatom and dinoflagellate community biomass over 6 decades across the North Atlantic. We find: 1) diatom and dinoflagellate biomass has decreased up to 2% per year throughout the North Atlantic except in the eastern and western shelf regions, and 2) there has been a 1–2% per year increase in diatom biomass relative to total diatom and dinoflagellate biomass throughout the North Atlantic, except the Arctic province, from 1960–2017. Our results confirm the widely reported relationship where diatoms are displaced by dinoflagellates as waters warm on monthly to annual time scales. The common assumption that gradual ocean warming will result in a decadal-scale shift from diatoms to dinoflagellates was not supported by our analysis. Predicting the effects of climate change likely requires consideration of the consequences for the whole community, the simultaneous change of multiple environmental variables, and the evolutionary potential of plankton populations.

Citation: Mutshinda CM, Finkel ZV, Irwin AJ (2025) Large, regionally variable shifts in diatom and dinoflagellate biomass in the North Atlantic over six decades. PLoS One 20(6): e0323675. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0323675

Editor: Barathan Balaji Prasath, Gujarat Institute of Desert Ecology, INDIA

Received: February 25, 2025; Accepted: April 12, 2025; Published: June 4, 2025

Highlights

Global & regional analysis of all GHG drivers (1820–2050)

Economic growth (+81Gt) overwhelmed efficiency gains (−31Gt)

Carbon intensity must immediately fall 3 × faster (−2.25 %/yr) to 2050.

Regional drivers: population vs affluence patterns vary sharply.

Reveals unprecedented gap between trends and climate needs.

Abstract

Identifying the socio-economic drivers behind greenhouse gas emissions is crucial to design mitigation policies. Existing studies predominantly analyze short-term CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, neglecting long-term trends and other GHGs. We examine the drivers of all greenhouse gas emissions between 1820–2050 globally and regionally. The Industrial Revolution triggered sustained emission growth worldwide—initially through fossil fuel use in industrialized economies but also as a result of agricultural expansion and deforestation. Globally, technological innovation and energy mix changes prevented 31 (17–42) Gt CO2e emissions over two centuries. Yet these gains were dwarfed by 81 (64–97) Gt CO2e resulting from economic expansion, with regional drivers diverging sharply: population growth dominated in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa, while rising affluence was the main driver of emissions elsewhere. Meeting climate targets now requires the carbon intensity of GDP to decline 3 times faster than the global best 30-year historical rate (–2.25 % per year), which has not improved over the past five decades. Failing such an unprecedented technological change or a substantial contraction of the global economy, by 2050 global mean surface temperatures will rise more than 3 °C above pre-industrial levels.

Abstract

In contrast to most integrated assessment models, with limited transparency on damage functions and recursive temporal dynamics, we use a unique large-dimensional computational global climate and trade model, GTAP-DynW, to directly project the possible intertemporal impacts of water and heat stress on global food supply and food security to 2050. The GTAP-DynW model uses GTAP production and trade data for 141 countries and regions, with varying water and heat stress baselines, and results are aggregated into 30 countries/regions and 30 commodity sectors. Blue water stress projections are drawn from WRI source material and a GTAP-Water database to incorporate dynamic changes in water resources and their availability in agricultural production and international trade, thus providing a more general measure for severe food insecurity from water and heat stress damages with global warming. Findings are presented for three representative concentration pathways: RCP4.5-SSP2, RCP8.5-SPP2, and RCP8.5-SSP3 (population growth only for SSPs) and project: (a) substantial declines, as measured by GCal, in global food production of some 6%, 10%, and 14% to 2050 and (b) the number of additional people with severe food insecurity by 2050, correspondingly, increases by 556 million, 935 million, and 1.36 billion compared to the 2020 model baseline.