Spyke

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REPOST (r/DDintoGME, June 2022): State of the Dip #1 - How is the probability of another monster dip? What are the determining factors for price movements and vice versa what do price movements cause?

So, we know the price kept going down since this post, so the hypothesis was partly right:

Since nearly a year the price is boring af and sticks around $20-$25. Also the DRS numbers don't show a steep increase, rather a steadily plateauing:

So everybody lost their interest? The splividend showed deep fukry, we had a profitable quarter, RC is now executive chairman, there is $1.3bn in cash - no bankruptcy in sight, although the new marketplace/nfts didn't lift off yet.

So in this stagnation, is there an opportunity? This is what my head can't stop thinking about.

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REPOST: Unfinished Stonk Overview for Days /w FTD, 10y Turnover (volume/outstanding shares), daily avg FTDs (as % of shares outstanding)

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Thank you. Yes total volume for 10y and avg daily FTD for the same period. A very good question! See:

Indeed GME was always on the top, but became the outlier during the sneeze in terms of volume. If I would redo the graph I think BBBY would have a similar position.

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The censorship state of reddit and subreddits - Part 1.5

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At least there are some things very suspicious. E.g. a post of me got shadow banned in the Jungle mentioning that Fidality got a stake in Discord. I learned of this only when I did this DD.

Further there is a deleted post promoting switching from plan to book while also KEEPING fractionals, which in the light of heatlamp looks strange "Don't feed the hedgies like I accidentally did. You can keep fractional shares enrolled in the plan to keep from selling them, and that also keeps the account open that enables you to buy more" (http://web.archive.org/web/20211222202615/https://www.reddit.com/r/GMEJungle/comments/rmdy5s/book_vs_plan_at_computershare_yes_there_is_a/).

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Operation BLIND BROKER

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Thinking about other ways to avoid brokers being able to unDRS I found that one may also just change account address details:

"So basically, brokers aren’t supposed to do this, but can, and if they do, there’s really nothing stopping them since there’s no check first to see if there was permission from the account holder. [...] In the meantime, as suggested by the reps, if possible, change some account info so it doesn’t match what your broker has on file, like changing Street to St or adding a middle initial." (https://www.reddit.com/r/computershare/comments/xfcpq3/comment/ioltp8n/)

Also on Twitter there is a discussion about "stop trades" and one of the things it would help with is brokers being able to unDRS. Either a new account or changing address details would do the trick also.

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Blurring: "Massive naked short positions need to be looked upon as huge assets." (2004) Where we are and what lies ahead. (3/3)

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Thank you jersan! I 90% agree with your comment. From the outside it looks like an unprofitable business, though sitting on a pile of cash only offering lofty promises. Once GME is profitable it will be easier to onboard new investors and also encourage old investors.

To the "explode" part rather want to stress that another main point of my post is: DRS is not enough. Not enough for what? Like I wrote in my post about price elasticity (https://lemmy.whynotdrs.org/post/206100 or https://www.reddit.com/r/whydrs/comments/16ijwv0/tales_of_the_death_of_the_liquidity_fairy_price/) I think there are two levels:

  • Level 1: Disruptive price adjustment to valuation
  • Level 2: MOASS with real price discovery and the closing of naked shorts

With the current system of stock market exchanges no matter what the company does, it is very unlikely we see level 2. The price might be adjusted for Level 1, but shorts won't close. They rather will hedge and make even more money with derivatives.

If you think otherwise, try to dig into the "Tesla shortsqueeze" and check who actually lost, which hedge fund had to be closed because of the closing of naked shorts.

whydrs

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Tales of Death of the Liquidity Fairy. Price elasticity for the Stonk Market.

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Exactly, lets assume shorts would be margin called and must buy at any price (which surprisingly didn't happen in Jan 2021 if you recall the SEC report). But will there be a seller for any price? In short, I don't think so. Do you?

Honestly, I am not sure how MOASS will really look like. And of course any hedgie would tell you how it looks like, like with the Sneeze being the Squeeze in Jan 2021. Haha, there was a like 30 slide set in like 20 versions claiming in a later version that FTDs would be unwound no matter what, just remember reading this and nearly crying how hard hedgies tried but how dumb they thought us to be (it was promoted by rensole at the time and called "The FTD Squeeze theory and the coiling spring"). So the psychological part will certainly play a huge role here ("SELL NOW, [INSERT COMPELLING REASON HERE]!").

This is why I always found concepts like buy, hold, DRS and the infinity pool very easy and compelling. I don't fully agree with no cell no sell, because its system change not single scape goats in prison I want. But I like the message it sends.

Lets theorize:

  • the amount of naked shorts gets larger every day (see short % of daily volume)
  • to make naked shorts = 0 they need to either bankrupt the company or a lot of people sell so we get back to shares owned = shares outstanding
  • you can 10x or 100x the stock price and people would rather buy than sell... WHAT????
  • in a MOASS scenario price rises which leads to FOMO - THIS IS WELL TESTED! (see also the Sneeze which was nearly pure buy volume (https://www.sec.gov/files/staff-report-equity-options-market-struction-conditions-early-2021.pdf , p. 28)
  • with the knowledge about DRS and infinity pool with a rising price, every DRSed share becomes more valuable. Its like bringing money to a bank with a niiiceee %age. For every seller there will (or might) be a buyer beside the one trying to cover the naked short.
  • Ultimately, the price becomes infinity, no matter how much volume is traded. Perfect price elasticity.

DRSd shares could become like the Mona Lisa. There is just one (real share for each outstanding). There are estimates, but ultimately its Priceless. PED = ∞ at P = ∞.

This is a nice theory. Becoming true, it could brake the financial market.

Or to just put it another way round, this is real infinite loss expressed, which before were just words.