The company that made primers for shells was having supply chain issues during covid and that drove the prices up across the board.

https://www.outdoorlife.com/guns/ammo-shortage-2023

What you're seeing now is a normalization on pricing.

Kinda both. Commercial ammunition production is a capital intensive industry. This results in a market that is slow to respond to changes in demand due to the large costs to increase/decrease capacity. COVID/Summer Protests brought a lot of new gun owners and old gun owners looking for ammo, but this kind of thing has happened before. If they're old enough, people will remember the Obama and AWB/Clinton years brought about similar price increases. Major ammo producers are reluctant to invests in capacity unless they deem the bump in demand to be more or less permanent.

The solution to this is to buy infrequently, and in quantity to get the best price per round. E.G. the Costco method or 'buy cheap and stack deep.' Consider buying a case of 500 rounds instead of 50. You should consider using an internet based reseller if your state allows. https://ammoseek.com/ is a good resource to find the best prices.

$12/50 9mm is still high. Prior to 2020 50 9mm was ~$8.

20 5.56 was $4.50 for range ammo and currently around $8.50/20

In the next few years it'll come down substantially and then something will happen and they'll skyrocket again. It's how gun life has been for the past 30-40 years.

People were hoarding ammo during covid in case shit hit the fan. Extreme right wingers hoard ammo every time there's a presidential election with a Democrat leading in the polls. So expect prices to go up again in 2024. They likely won't be as high as they were in 2020-2022 though, since that was hoarding combined with supply chain issues.

Such fluctuations are pretty typical. My solution to that has been to buy in bulk when the prices dip. Ammo Seek is a solid price aggregator.

I'm not the best person to ask, but I recall several years back there being an ammunition availability crunch and prices rising.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%932016_United_States_ammunition_shortage

The 2008–2016 United States ammunition shortage was a shortage of civilian small arms ammunition in the United States that started in late 2008, and continued through most or all of 2010, with an additional shortage beginning in December 2012 and continuing throughout 2013.

The 2008 election of President Barack Obama triggered increased sales of both firearms and ammunition. USA Today reported that in Wyoming, the "run on bullets and reloading components" reached such a "frenzy" that a Cheyenne retailer began rationing sales and said she was also selling semiautomatic rifles as fast as she could put them on the shelves.

In December 2012, a new wave of panic buying was driven by the perceived likelihood of new firearm control laws being passed by Congress and state governments in response to the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting. This led to a severe shortage of ammunition for most handgun calibers and some rifle calibers, especially the previously easy-to-find and cheaply priced .22 LR.

By August 2013, the rate of consumer purchases of most types of ammunition was receding, but prices continued to be above those found before December 2012 and ammunition for some calibers continued to be difficult to procure.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%93present_United_States_ammunition_shortage

The 2020–present United States ammunition shortage is the most recent of all the ammunition shortages in the United States. It arose out of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, the 2020 United States presidential election, and the George Floyd protests. The lack of sufficient ammunition for consumers in the United States is to some extent ongoing.

Prices match market desire. During election years (where one politician has an anti gun platform) or during times like COVID people go out to buy guns and ammo. There's a reason the expression 'buy cheap stack deep' exists.

If you can buy ammo before an election year or (harder) before you find out about global pandemic. Also use Ammoseek to find deals and buy the cheapest brass cased non-remanufactured ammo for range use.

Aside from the random news cycle panic buying, there's also a decade long cycle when the government restocks and causes shortages. Usually accompanied by news reports that the government is stocking up to come after your guns.