The latest forecast from the Dallas Fed projects the state will add jobs at a rate of less than 1% this year, well below Texas' historical average.

Texas lost nearly 19,000 jobs in September, according to figures published this week by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, representing the state’s largest monthly net jobs decrease since June 2025. The rough month also helped push the Reserve Bank’s 2026 Texas employment growth forecast downward to less than 1% — a significant drop from recent months and far below the state’s historical average.

September’s weak job numbers come as the country faces numerous economic headwinds, including high energy costs, interest rates that continue to weigh on homebuilding and an immigration crackdown restricting hiring in some key industries.

“Texas employment declined in September, slowing year-to-date job growth to 0.8%, well below the state’s long-running average of 2%,” Luis Torres, a Dallas Fed senior business economist, said in a statement. “The moderation in job growth is consistent with current labor supply constraints that partly result from sharply lower immigration.”