NASA has announced how it wants to proceed with a commercial space station to replace the ISS, but will a future AI stock market crash scupper those plans?
NASA's plans are to narrow down 4 contenders to just 2 in April 2027, and at a later date commit to just one. The 4 contenders are Axiom Space, Blue Origin, Starlab Space, and Vast. Starlab and Axiom are focusing on single modules they want to test on the current ISS. Vast and Blue Origin plan for standalone stations, with Blue Origin planning for a much bigger station than Vast.
The route to space commercialization was always going to be difficult. If investors are going to commit to the hundreds of billions involved, where does the revenue come from? We all know it will happen one day; the prospect of asteroid mining demonstrates that, but how to bridge the gap before it becomes a reality?
A more immediate barrier? The AI boom means the stock market is at 1929 levels of over-valuation; we all know it's going to crash. So where does that leave these 4 companies? Without the draw of something like asteroid mining, I struggle to see how a commercial space station, with minimal government support, becomes a reality in the near future.
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Space research isn't something that should be privatized.
They need the illusion that it can be to support their plans for infinite growth forever.
Space is just infinitely more resources to exploit in their eyes.