China already operates land-, air- and sea-based systems capable of delivering nuclear weapons. The Ministry of Defence linked that military expansion to a more assertive international posture, including activity in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait that it described as dangerous and destabilising.

The assessment presents China’s build-up as part of a wider deterioration in the security environment facing Britain and its NATO allies. Other nuclear-armed states are also modernising, expanding and diversifying their arsenals while investing in new weapons and delivery technologies.

Russia remains the most heavily armed country identified in the document, with more than 4,000 nuclear warheads available for use. It can deliver weapons over long ranges through its strategic nuclear triad and at shorter ranges from land-, sea- and air-based platforms.

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Britain defines its policy as maintaining an independent, minimum and credible deterrent assigned to NATO’s defence. The government says it will retain only the destructive power required to deter the full range of state nuclear threats.

The UK maintains deliberate ambiguity over when, how and at what scale it might contemplate the use of nuclear weapons. It says they would be considered only in extreme circumstances of self-defence, including the defence of NATO allies.

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