It's depleting a bit slower than I feared it would, a few months ago.

Feels like they could do another one or two reserve releases if they wanted, enough to keep things stable ("stable" in the sense of merely a low-grade unending emergency that hurts everyone for a long time rather than a calamitous immediate collapse) for the rest of 2026.

While the war still has no end in sight I would be surprised if it was still going on in 2027. So chances are it'll sort of work out ok-ish in the long run.