Donald Trump has seemingly permanently fractured the fragile coalition that brought him into power. Is MAGA effectively dead?

In the weeks since Donald Trump's assault on Iran, it has been difficult to extract a clear signal about what is happening and where things are heading. I've reached out to experts across the spectrum — former government officials, Iran experts, and my regular network of well-connected analysts.

Overwhelmingly, the thread that has connected these conversations was the sense that there are too many geopolitical factors in play to get a sense of where things may be headed. No one really has any idea, and anyone who says they do is probably making it up.

However, there are many discussion points that, taken together, contain some ground truth. Here's a list of the better insights I've encountered with respect to the present moment, especially regarding Trump's actions toward Iran.