Spyke

Stubsack: weekly thread for sneers not worth an entire post, week ending 17th August 2025

Need to let loose a primal scream without collecting footnotes first? Have a sneer percolating in your system but not enough time/energy to make a whole post about it? Go forth and be mid: Welcome to the Stubsack, your first port of call for learning fresh Awful you’ll near-instantly regret.

Any awful.systems sub may be subsneered in this subthread, techtakes or no.

If your sneer seems higher quality than you thought, feel free to cut’n’paste it into its own post — there’s no quota for posting and the bar really isn’t that high.

The post Xitter web has spawned soo many “esoteric” right wing freaks, but there’s no appropriate sneer-space for them. I’m talking redscare-ish, reality challenged “culture critics” who write about everything but understand nothing. I’m talking about reply-guys who make the same 6 tweets about the same 3 subjects. They’re inescapable at this point, yet I don’t see them mocked (as much as they should be)

Like, there was one dude a while back who insisted that women couldn’t be surgeons because they didn’t believe in the moon or in stars? I think each and every one of these guys is uniquely fucked up and if I can’t escape them, I would love to sneer at them.

Previous week

View original on awful.systems
awful.systems

I've often called slop "signal-shaped noise". I think the damage already done by slop pissed all over the reservoirs of knowledge, art and culture is irreversible and long-lasting. This is the only thing generative "AI" is good at, making spam that's hard to detect.

It occurs to me that one way to frame this technology is as a precise inversion of Bayesian spam filters for email; no more and no less. I remember how it was a small revolution, in the arms race against spammers, when statistical methods came up; everywhere we took of the load of straining SpamAssassin with rspamd (in the years before gmail devoured us all). I would argue "A Plan for Spam" launched Paul Graham's notoriety, much more than the Lisp web stores he was so proud of. Filtering emails by keywords was not being enough, and now you could train your computer to gradually recognise emails that looked off, for whatever definition of "off" worked for your specific inbox.

Now we have the richest people building the most expensive, energy-intensive superclusters to use the same statistical methods the other way around, to generate spam that looks like not-spam, and is therefore immune to all filtering strategies we had developed. That same blob-like malleability of spam filters makes the new spam generators able to fit their output to whatever niche they want to pollute; the noise can be shaped like any signal.

I wonder what PG is saying about gen-"AI" these days? let's check:

“AI is the exact opposite of a solution in search of a problem,” he wrote on X. “It’s the solution to far more problems than its developers even knew existed … AI is turning out to be the missing piece in a large number of important, almost-completed puzzles.”
He shared no examples, but […]

Who would have thought that A Plan for Spam was, all along, a plan for spam.

21

It occurs to me that one way to frame this technology is as a precise inversion of Bayesian spam filters for email.

This is a really good observation, and while I had lowkey noticed it (one of those feeling things), I never had verbalized it in anyway. Good point imho. Also in how it bypasses and wrecks the old anti-spam protections. It represents a fundamental flipping of sides of the tech industry. While before they were anti-spam it is now pro-spam. A big betrayal of consumers/users/humanity.

11

Signal shaped noise reminds me of a wiener filter.

Aside: when I took my signals processing course, the professor kept drawing diagrams that were eerily phallic. Those were the most memorable parts of the course

8
awful.systems

Idea: a programming language that controls how many times a for loop cycles by the number of times a letter appears in a given word, e.g., "for each b in blueberry".

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nightskyreply
awful.systems

And the language's main data container is a kind of stack, but to push or pop values, you have to wrap them into "boats" which have to cross a "river", with extra rules for ordering and combination of values.

14
mlenreply
awful.systems
for e in rindfleischetikettierungsüberwachungsgesetz
4
swlabrreply
awful.systems

::: spoiler image contents will arnett from arrested development asking "bees?!" :::

6

... but the output is not deterministic as the letter count is sampled from a distribution of possible letter counts for a given word and letter pair; count ~ p(count | word = "blueberry", letter = 'b')!

5

Even bigger picture... some standardized way of regularly handling possible combinations of letters and numbers that you could use across multiple languages. Like it handles them as expressions?

4
awful.systems

Ozy Brennan tries to explain why "rationalism" spawns so many cults.

One of the reasons they give is "a dangerous sense of grandiosity".

the actual process of saving the world is not very glamorous. It involves filling out paperwork, making small tweaks to code, running A/B tests on Twitter posts.

Yep, you heard it right. Shitposting and inconsequential code are the proper way to save the world.

17
geriksonreply
awful.systems

JFC

Agency and taking ideas seriously aren’t bad. Rationalists came to correct views about the COVID-19 pandemic while many others were saying masks didn’t work and only hypochondriacs worried about covid; rationalists were some of the first people to warn about the threat of artificial intelligence.

First off, anyone not entirely into MAGA/Qanon agreed that masks probably helped more than hurt. Saying rats were outliers is ludicrous.

Second, rats don't take real threats of GenAI seriously - infosphere pollution, surveillance, autopropaganda - they just care about the magical future Sky Robot.

14

That's how I remember it too. Also the context about conserving N95 masks always feels like it gets lost. Like, predictably so and I think there's definitely room to criticize the CDC's messaging and handling there, but the actual facts here aren't as absurd as the current fight would imply. The argument was:

  1. With the small droplet size, most basic fabric masks offer very limited protection, if any.
  2. The masks that are effective, like N95 masks, are only available in very limited quantities.
  3. If everyone panic-buys N95 the way they did toilet paper it will mean that the people who are least able to avoid exposure i.e. doctors and medical frontliners are at best going to wildly overpay and at worst won't be able to keep supplied.
  4. Therefore, most people shouldn't worry about masking at this stage, and focus on other measures like social distancing and staying the fuck home.

I think later research cast some doubt on point 1, but 2-4 are still pretty solid given the circumstances that we (collectively) found ourselves in.

8

Meanwhile, the right-wing prepper types were breaking out the N95 masks they’d stockpiled for a pandemic

This included Scott ssc btw. Who also claimed that stopping smoking helped against cov. Not that he had any proof (the medical science at the time even falsely (it came out later) claimed smoking helped agains covid). But only the CDC gets judged, not the ingroup.

And other Scott blamed people who sneer for making covid worse. (While at sneerclub we were going, take this seriously and wear a mask).

So annoying Rationalists are trying to spin this into a win for themselves. (They also were not early, their warnings matched the warnings of the WHO, looked into the timelines last time this was talked about).

5
froztbytereply
awful.systems

(in networking it's common terminology to refer to "Lx" by numerical reference, and broadly understood to be in reference to this)

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swlabrreply
awful.systems

Aaaaa gotcha. It’s probably obvious but in my case I meant L7 manager as in “level 7 manager”, a high tier managerial position at twitter, probably. I don’t know what exact tiering system twitter uses but I know other companies might use “Lx” to designate a level.

7
awful.systems

Overall more interesting than I expected. On the Leverage Research cult:

Routine tasks, such as deciding whose turn it was to pick up the groceries, required working around other people’s beliefs in demons, magic, and other paranormal phenomena. Eventually these beliefs collided with preexisting social conflict, and Leverage broke apart into factions that fought with each other internally through occult rituals.

2
awful.systems

So... apparently Peter Thiel has taken to co-opting fundamentalist Christian terminology to go after Effective Altruism? At least it seems that way from this EA post (warning, I took psychic damage just skimming the lunacy). As far as I can tell, he's merely co-opting the terminology, Thiel's blather doesn't have any connection to any variant of Christian eschatology (whether mainstream or fundamentalist or even obscure wacky fundamentalist), but of course, the majority of the EAs don't recognize that, or the fact that he is probably targeting them for their (kind of weak to be honest) attempts at getting AI regulated at all, and instead they charitably try to steelman him and figure out if he was a legitimate point. ...I wish they could put a tenth of this effort into understanding leftist thought.

Some of the comments are... okay actually, at least by EA standards, but there are still plenty of people willing to defend Thiel

One comment notes some confusion:

I’m still confused about the overall shape of what Thiel believes.

He’s concerned about the antichrist opposing Jesus during Armageddon. But afaik standard theology says that Jesus will win for certain. And revelation says the world will be in disarray and moral decay when the Second Coming happens.

If chaos is inevitable and necessary for Jesus’ return, why is expanding the pre-apocalyptic era with growth/prosperity so important to him?

Yeah, its because he is simply borrowing Christian Fundamentalists Eschatological terminology... possibly to try to turn the Christofascists against EA?

Someone actually gets it:

I'm dubious Thiel is actually an ally to anyone worried about permanent dictatorship. He has connections to openly anti-democratic neoreactionaries like Curtis Yarvin, he quotes Nazi lawyer and democracy critic Carl Schmitt on how moments of greatness in politics are when you see your enemy as an enemy, and one of the most famous things he ever said is "I no longer believe that freedom and democracy are compatible". Rather I think he is using "totalitarian" to refer to any situation where the government is less economically libertarian than he would like, or "woke" ideas are popular amongst elite tastemakers, even if the polity this is all occurring in is clearly a liberal democracy, not a totalitarian state.

Note this commenter still uses non-confrontational language ("I'm dubious") even when directly calling Thiel out.

The top comment, though, is just like the main post, extending charitability to complete technofascist insanity. (Warning for psychic damage)

Nice post! I am a pretty close follower of the Thiel Cinematic Universe (ie his various interviews, essays, etc)

I think Thiel is also personally quite motivated (understandably) by wanting to avoid death. This obviously relates to a kind of accelerationist take on AI that sets him against EA, but again, there's a deeper philosophical difference here. Classic Yudkowsky essays (and a memorable Bostrom short story, video adaptation here) share this strident anti-death, pro-medical-progress attitude (cryonics, etc), as do some philanthropists like Vitalik Buterin. But these days, you don't hear so much about "FDA delenda est" or anti-aging research from effective altruism. Perhaps there are valid reasons for this (low tractability, perhaps). But some of the arguments given by EAs against aging's importance are a little weak, IMO (more on this later) -- in Thiel's view, maybe suspiciously weak. This is a weird thing to say, but I think to Thiel, EA looks like a fundamentally statist / fascist ideology, insofar as it is seeking to place the state in a position of central importance, with human individuality / agency / consciousness pushed aside.

As for my personal take on Thiel's views -- I'm often disappointed at the sloppiness (blunt-ness? or low-decoupling-ness?) of his criticisms, which attack the EA for having a problematic "vibe" and political alignment, but without digging into any specific technical points of disagreement. But I do think some of his higher-level, vibe-based critiques have a point.

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istewartreply
awful.systems

tl,dr; Thiel now sees the Christofascists as a more durable grifting base than the EAs, and is looking to change lanes while the temporary coalitions of maximalist Trumpism offer him the opportunity.

I repeat my suspicion that Thiel is not any more sober than Musk, he's just getting sloppier about keeping it out of the public eye.

14

I think a big difference between Thiel and Musk, is that Thiel views himself as an "intellectual" and derives prestige "intellectualism". I don't believe for a minute he's genuinely christian, but his wankery about end-of-times eschatology of armageddon = big-left-government, is a a bit too confused to be purely cynical, I think sniffing his own farts feeds his ego.

Of course a man who would promote open doping olympics isn't sober.

10
Soyweiserreply
awful.systems

Yeah, its because he is simply borrowing Christian Fundamentalists Eschatological terminology… possibly to try to turn the Christofascists against EA?

Yep, the usefulness of EA is over, they are next on the chopping block. I'd imagine a similar thing will happen to redscare/moldbug if they ever speak out against him.

E: And why would a rich guy be against a "we are trying to convince rich guys to spend their money differently" organization. Esp a 'libertarian' "I get to do what I want or else" one.

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geriksonreply
awful.systems

It always struck me as hilarious that the EA/LW crowd could ever affect policy in any way. They're cosplaying as activists, have no ideas about how to move the public image needle other than weird movie ideas and hope, and are literally marinated in SV technolibertarianism which sees government regulation as Evil.

There's a mini-freakout over OpenAI deciding to keep GPT-4o active, despite it being more "sycophantic" than GPT-5 (and thus more likely to convince people to do Bad Things) but there's also the queasy realization that if sycophantic LLMs is what brings in the bucks, nothing is gonna stop LLM companies from offering them. And there's no way these people can stop it, because they've made the deal that LLM companies are gonna be the ones realizing that AI is gonna kill everyone and that's never gonna happen.

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scruiserreply
awful.systems

They’re cosplaying as activists, have no ideas about how to move the public image needle other than weird movie ideas and hope, and are literally marinated in SV technolibertarianism which sees government regulation as Evil.

It is kind of sad. They are missing the ideological pieces that would let them carry out activism effectually so instead they've gotten used as a free source of crit-hype in the LLM bubble. ...except not that sad because they would ignore real AI dangers in favor of their sci-fi scenarios, so I don't feel too bad for them.

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o7___o7reply
awful.systems

Brian Merchant's article about that lighthaven gathering really struck me.

The men who EAs think will end the earth were in the building with them, and rather than organize to throw them out a window (or even to just make them mildly uncomfortable), the bayes knowers all gormlessly moped around their twee boutique hotel and cried around some whiteboards.

Absolute hellish brainworms

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scruiserreply
awful.systems

Yeah that article was one of the things I had mind. It's the peak of centrist liberalism where EAs and lesswrongers can think these people are literally going to cause mankind's extinction (or worse) and they can't even bring themselves to be rude to them. OTOH, if they actually acted coherently on their nominal doomer beliefs, they would be carrying out terrorism on a far greater scale than the Zizians, so maybe it is for the best they are ideologically incapable of direct action.

8

The ideological version of Mr Burns's diseases getting in each other's way

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scruiserreply
awful.systems

And why would a rich guy be against a “we are trying to convince rich guys to spend their money differently” organization.

Well when they are just passively trying to convince the rich guys, they can use the organization to launder reputation or boost ideologies they are in favor of. When the organization actually tries to get regulations passed, even ineffectually, well, that is a threat to the likes of Thiel.

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corbinreply
awful.systems

Thiel is a true believer in Jesus and God. He was raised evangelical. The quirky eschatologist that you're looking for is René Girard, who he personally met at some point. For more details, check out the Behind the Bastards on him.

Edit: I wrote this before clicking on the LW post. This is a decent summary of Girard's claims as well as how they influence Thiel. I'm quoting West here in order to sneer at Thiel:

Unfortunately (?), Christian society does not let us sacrifice random scapegoats, so we are trapped in an ever-escalating cycle, with only poor substitutes like “cancelling celebrities on Twitter” to release pressure. Girard doesn’t know what to do about this.

Thiel knows what to do about this. After all, he funded Bollea v. Gawker. Instead of letting journalists cancel celebrities, why not cancel journalists instead? Then there's no longer any journalists to do any cancellation! Similarly, Thiel is confirmed to be a source of funding for Eric Weinstein and believed to fund Sabine Hossenfelder. Instead of letting scientists cancel religious beliefs, why not cancel scientists instead? By directing money through folks with existing social legitimacy, Thiel applies mimesis: pretend to be legitimate and you can shift what is legitimate.

In this context, Thiel fears the spectre of AGI because it can't be influenced by his normal approach to power, which is to hide anything that can be hidden and outspend everybody else talking in the open. After all, if AGI is truly to unify humanity, it must unify our moralities and cultures into a single uniformly-acceptable code of conduct. But the only acceptable unification for Thiel is the holistic catholic apostolic one-and-only forever-and-ever church of Jesus, and if AGI is against that then AGI is against Jesus himself.

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corbinreply
awful.systems

There's no solid evidence. (You can put away the attorney, Mr. Thiel.) Experts in the field, in a recent series of interviews with Dave Farina, generally agree that somebody must be funding Hossenfelder. Right now she's associated with the Center for Mathematical Philosophy at LMU Munich; her biography there is pretty funny:

Sabine’s current research interest focuses on the role of locality and finetuning in theory development. Locality has been widely considered a lost cause in the foundations of quantum mechanics. A basically unexplored way to maintain locality, however, is the idea of superdeterminism, which has more recently also been re-considered under the name “contextuality”. Superdeterminism is widely believed to be finetuned. One of Sabine’s current research topics is to explore whether this belief is justified. The other main avenue she is pursuing is how superdeterminism can be experimentally tested.

For those not in physics: this is crank shit. To the extent that MCMP funds her at all, they are explicitly pursuing superdeterminism, which is unfalsifiable, unverifiable, doesn't accord with the web of science, and generally fails to be a serious line of inquiry. Now, does MCMP have enough cash to pay her to make Youtube videos and go on podcasts? We don't know. So it's hard to say whether she has funding beyond that.

6

Oh, wow, that biography is hilariously bad. Contexuality is not the same thing as superdeterminism. And locality is not "a lost cause". Plenty of people throw around the term quantum nonlocality, but in the smaller population of those who take foundations seriously, many will say that quantum mechanics is local. Most but not all proponents of Copenhagen-ish interpretations say something like, "The moral of Bell's theorem is that nature needs a non-(local hidden variable) theory. We keep locality and drop the hidden variables. In other words, quantum physics is a local non-(hidden variable) theory." The Everettians of various flavors also tend to hold onto locality, or try to, while not always agreeing with each other on how to do that. It's probably only among the Bohmians that you'll find people insisting that quantum physics means nature is intrinsically nonlocal.

6

The quirky eschatologist that you’re looking for is René Girard, who he personally met at some point. For more details, check out the Behind the Bastards on him.

Thanks for the references. The quirky theology was so outside the range of even the weirder Fundamentalist Christian stuff I didn't recognize it as such. (And didn't trust the EA summary because they try so hard to charitably make sense of Thiel).

In this context, Thiel fears the spectre of AGI because it can’t be influenced by his normal approach to power, which is to hide anything that can be hidden and outspend everybody else talking in the open.

Except the EAs are, on net, opposed to the creation of AGI (albeit they are ineffectual in their opposition). So going after the EAs doesn't make sense if Thiel is genuinely opposed to inventing AGI faster. So I still think Thiel is just going after the EA's because he's libertarian and EA has shifted in the direction of trying to get more government regulation. (As opposed to a coherent theological goal beyond libertarianism). I'll check out the BtB podcast and see if it changes my mind as to his exact flavor of insanity.

7

Thiel is a true believer in Jesus and God. He was raised evangelical.

Being gay must really complicate things for him.

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geriksonreply
awful.systems

Using the term "Antichrist" as a shorthand for "global stable totalitarianism" is A Choice.

7

Thomasaurus has given their thoughts on using AI, in a journal entry called "I tried coding with AI, I became lazy and stupid)". Unsurprisingly, the whole thing is one long sneer, with a damning indictment of its effectiveness at the end:

If I lose my job due to AI, it will be because I used it so much it made me lazy and stupid to the point where another human has to replace me and I become unemployable.

I shouldn't invest time in AI. I should invest more time studying new things that interest me. That's probably the only way to keep doing this job and, you know, be safe.

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awful.systems

New article from the New York Times reporting on an influx of compsci graduates struggling to find jobs (ostensibly caused by AI automation). Found a real money shot about a quarter of the way through:

Among college graduates ages 22 to 27, computer science and computer engineering majors are facing some of the highest unemployment rates, 6.1 percent and 7.5 percent respectively, according to a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. That is more than double the unemployment rate among recent biology and art history graduates, which is just 3 percent.

You want my take, I expect this article's gonna blow a major hole in STEM's public image - being a path to a high-paying job was one of STEM's major selling points (especially compared to the "useless" art/humanities degrees), and this new article not only undermines that selling point, but argues for flipping it on its head.

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awful.systems

Quick update: I've checked the response on Bluesky, and it seems the general response is of schadenfreude at STEM's expense. From the replies, I've found:

Plus one user mocking STEM in general as "[choosing] fascism and “billions must die”" out of greed, and another approving of others' dunks on STEM over past degree-related grievances.

You want my take on this dunkfest, this suggests STEM's been hit with a double-whammy here - not only has STEM lost the status their "high-paying" reputation gave them, but that reputation (plus a lotta built-up grievances from mockery of the humanities) has crippled STEM's ability to garner sympathy for their current predicament.

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V0ldekreply
awful.systems

I hate the fact that now someone might look at me and surmise that I do something related to blockchain or AI, I feel almost like I need a sticker, like those "I bought it before we knew Elon was crazy" they put on Teslas

"I learnt to code before this stupid bubble"

15

stolen from cohost but i appreciate the succinctness of "capitalism make computer bad"

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swlabrreply
awful.systems

On one hand, this is another case of capitalism working as intended. You have the ruling class dangling the carrot of the promise of social mobility via job. Just gotta turn the crank of the orphan grinder for 4 years or so, until there's enough orphan paste to grease the next grinding machine. But it's ok, because your experience in crank will let you climb the ladder to the next, higher paying, higher prestige crank of the machine. Then one day, they decide to turn on the motor.

On the other hand? There is no other hand, they chopped it off because you didn't turn the crank fast enough when you had the chance.

14

To extend that analogy a bit, the dunkfest I noted suggests that a portion of the public views STEM as perfectly okay with the orphan grinder's existence at best, and proud of having orphan blood on their hands at worst.

As for the motorised orphan grinder you mention, it looks to me like the public viewed its construction as STEM voting for the Leopards Eating People's Faces Party (with predictable consequences).

7

You're dead right on that.

Part of me suspects STEM in general (primarily tech, the other disciplines look well-protected from the fallout) will have to deal with cleaning off the stench of Eau de Fash after the dust settles, with tech in particular viewed as unequipped to resist fascism at best and out-and-proud fascists at worst.

4

you say STEM, but you seem to mean almost exclusively computer touchers, already mentioned biologists or variety of engineers won't likely have these problems (i'm not gonna be excessively smug about this because my field will destroy you physically while still being STEM and not particularly glorious)

also it's not a complete jobocalypse, there's still 93% employed fresh CS grads, they might have comparatively shittier jobs, but it's not a disaster (unless picture is actually much bleaker in that that unemployment is, say, concentrated in last 2 years of graduates, but still even in this case it's maybe 10%, 12% tops for the worst affected). unless you mean their unlimited libertarian flavoured greed coming through it, then yeah, it's pretty funny

even then, there's gonna be a funny rebound when these all genai companies implode, partially maybe not in top earner countries, but places like eastern europe or india will fill that openai-sized crater pretty handily, if that mythical outsourcing to ai happened in the first place, that is

10

As an aging dev, we kind of do deserve some of this flak lol. Funny thing is, I went into SD because my first STEM degree made me as unemployable as a humanities major (a B.S. in physics is good for not much).

9
corbinreply
awful.systems

Well, what's next, and how much work is it? I didn't want to be a computing professional. I trained as a jazz pianist. At some point we ought to focus on the real problem: not STEM, not humanities, but business schools and MBA programs.

11

Well, what’s next, and how much work is it?

I'm not particularly sure myself. By my guess, I don't expect one specific profession to be "what's next", but a wide variety of professions becoming highly lucrative, primarily those which can exploit the fallout of the AI bubble to their benefit. Giving some predictions:

  • Therapists and psychiatrists should find plenty of demand, as mental health crisis and cases of AI psychosis provide them a steady stream of clients.

  • Those in writing related jobs (e.g. copywriters) can likely squeeze hefty premiums from clients with AI-written work that needs fixing.

  • Programmers may find themselves a job tearing down the mountains of technical debt introduced by vibe-coding, and can probably crowbar a premium out of desperate clients as well. (This one's probably gonna be limited to senior coders, though - juniors are likely getting the shaft on this front)

As for which degrees will come into high demand, I expect it will be mainly humanities degrees that benefit - either directly through netting you a profession that can exploit the AI fallout, or indirectly through showing you have skills that an LLM can't imitate.

I didn’t want to be a computing professional. I trained as a jazz pianist

Nice. You could probably earn some cash doing that on the side.

At some point we ought to focus on the real problem: not STEM, not humanities, but business schools and MBA programs.

You're goddamn right.

7
iosdev.space

@BlueMonday1984

Except biology isn't being hit as badly and that's also STEM. I wouldn't be surprised if other life sciences have also done better, at least until Trump started fucking with the grant system.

It's specifically computer-touchers who are in the toilet.

6

My velocity has increased 10x and I'm shipping features like a cracked ninja now, which is great because my B2B SaaS is still in stealth mode.

Yeah it's satire, but effective satire means you can never really tell...

12

Im old enough to recall the polyphasic sleep fad. And how that wrecked people if they ever messed up. (Iirc also turns out very bad implications for long term health).

7
awful.systems

Yall ready for another round of LessWrong edit wars on Wikipedia? This time with a wider list of topics!

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/g6rpo6hshodRaaZF3/mech-interp-wiki-page-and-why-you-should-edit-wikipedia-1

On the very slightly merciful upside... the lesswronger recommends "If you want to work on a new page, discuss with the community first by going to the talk page of a related topic or meta-page." and "In general, you shouldn't post before you understand Wikipedia rules, norms, and guidelines." so they are ahead of the previous calls made on Lesswrong for Wikipedia edit-wars.

On the downside, they've got a laundry list of lesswrong jargon they want Wikipedia articles for. Even one of the lesswrongers responding to them points out these terms are a bit on the under-defined side:

Speaking as a self-identified agent foundations researcher, I don't think agent foundations can be said to exist yet. It's more of an aspiration than a field. If someone wrote a wikipedia page for it, it would just be that person's opinion on what agent foundations should look like.

13
zogwargreply
awful.systems

PS: We also think that there existing a wiki page for the field that one is working in increases one's credibility to outsiders - i.e. if you tell someone that you're working in AI Control, and the only pages linked are from LessWrong and Arxiv, this might not be a good look.

Aha so OP is just hoping no one will bother reading the sources listed on the article...

14

I could imagine a lesswronger being delusional/optimistic enough to assume their lesswrong jargon concepts have more academic citations than a handful of arXiv preprints... but in this case they just admitted otherwise their only sources are lesswrong and arXiv. Also, if they know wikipedia's policies, they should no the No Original Research rule would block their idea even overlooking single source and conflict of interest.

8

From the comments:

On the contrary, I think that almost all people and institutions that don't currently have a Wikipedia article should not want one.

Huh. How oddly sensible.

An extreme (and close-to-home) example is documented in TracingWoodgrains’s exposé.of David Gerard’s Wikipedia smear campaign against LessWrong and related topics.

Ah, never mind.

12
awful.systems

I finally steeled myself to look at the page history. After dgerard commented about it, someone else tagged the article for additional problems:

Then a third editor added a section ... made of LLM bullshit.

I'd probably be exaggerating if I said that every time I looked under the hood of Wikipedia, it reaffirmed how I don't have the temperament to edit there. But I wouldn't be exaggerating by much. It's enough of a hassle to agree upon text in a paper co-authored with a colleague I know personally and like. Dealing with posers whose ego pays them by the word... Ugh.

3

I’d probably be exaggerating if I said that every time I looked under the hood of Wikipedia, it reaffirmed how I don’t have the temperament to edit there.

The lesswrongers hate dgerad's Wikipedia work because they perceive it as calling them out, but if anything Wikipedia's norms makes his "call outs" downright gentle and routine.

2

Tante fires off about web search:

There used to be this deal between Google (and other search engines) and the Web: You get to index our stuff, show ads next to them but you link our work. AI Overview and Perplexity and all these systems cancel that deal.

And maybe - for a while - search will also need to die a bit? Make the whole web uncrawlable. Refuse any bots. As an act of resistance to the tech sector as a whole.

On a personal sidenote, part of me suspects webrings and web directories will see a boost in popularity in the coming years - with web search in the shitter and AI crawlers being a major threat, they're likely your safest and most reliable method of bringing human traffic to your personal site/blog.

12

Mastodon post linking to the least shocking Ars lede I have seen in a bit. Apparently "reasoning" and "chain of thought" functionality might have been entirely marketing fluff? :shocked pikachu:

11
nfultzreply
awful.systems

In a similar train of thought:

A.I. as normal technology (derogatory) | Max Read

But speaking descriptively, as a matter of long precedent, what could be more normal, in Silicon Valley, than people weeping on a message board because a UX change has transformed the valence of their addiction?

I like the DNF / vaporware analogy, but did we ever have a GPT Doom or Duke3d killer app in the first place? Did I miss it?

8
awful.systems

I like the DNF / vaporware analogy, but did we ever have a GPT Doom or Duke3d killer app in the first place? Did I miss it?

In a literal sense, Google did attempt to make GPT Doom, and failed (i.e. a large language model can't run Doom).

In a metaphorical sense, the AI equivalent to Doom was probably AI Dungeon, a roleplay-focused chatbot viewed as quite impressive when it released in 2020.

12

In April 2021, AI Dungeon implemented a new algorithm for content moderation to prevent instances of text-based simulated child pornography created by users. The moderation process involved a human moderator reading through private stories.[49][41][50][51] The filter frequently flagged false positives due to wording (terms like "eight-year-old laptop" misinterpreted as the age of a child), affecting both pornographic and non-pornographic stories. Controversy and review bombing of AI Dungeon occurred as a result of the moderation system, citing false positives and a lack of communication between Latitude and its user base following the change.[40]

Haha. Good find.

11

Ooh, what a terrible fate! What horrid crimes you must have committed to make our beloved jannies punish you with admin bits! :D

6
selfreply
awful.systems

Intellectual (Non practicing, Lapsed)

indeed

not saying it’s always the supposed infosec instances, but

8
V0ldekreply
awful.systems

Autodidact, Polymath

Why did you skip the funniest part?

7

Wulfy... saying someone cannot be right because they haven't agreed with you yet is an appeal to authority. People might be wrong, but they don't have to adopt AI in order to have an informed opinion.

If you're asking me how to design a prompt for a particular AI, then I don't know a single thing about it. If you're asking me whether AI is a good idea or not, I can be more sure of that answer. Feel free to prove me wrong, but don't say my opinion doesn't matter.

Have you seen the data centers being built just north of your house? No? Well it doesn't matter you still might have a point!

6

AI Spam

Have you ever read an article of his in full? Literally packed with facts and numbers backing up his arguments

3
fullsquarereply
awful.systems

"i'm employed, what does it mean?" is common on r/shitposting when some obscure online/weeb thing surfaces. probably in a dozen of other places also

9
awful.systems

Forwarding this discussion to here:

News from r/philosophy: OOP, Richard Y Chappell, posted an article containing image slop, landing them a 3-day ban. OOP writes a new article that DESTROYS the r/philosophy moderation policy on AI generated content with FACTS and LOGIC. For added flavour, OOP is an EA. OP is an SSCer. Both are participants in the thread.

9
geriksonreply
awful.systems

Guess either term hasn't started, or his gig as phil prof is some sort of right-wing sinecure. Dude has a lot of time on his hands.

FWIW I'd say banning a poster for including slop image in a 3rd party article is a bit harsh, but what would Reddit be without arbitrary draconian rules? A normal person would note this, accept the 3 day ban, and maybe avoid the sub in future or avoid including slop. The fact he flew off his handle this much is very very funny though.

10
Soyweiserreply
awful.systems

Forget being exposed to the elements to build character. People should be randomly temp banned and use that to build/judge character. (Also a good judge of the power balance in a community, if the mod team can temp ban a power poster that predates the mod team, say lesswrong giving Yud a timeout).

11
swlabrreply
awful.systems

power poster that predates the mod team

Does Yud predate for food or sport?

11

Fullsquares Basilisk. Either yud stops writing, or we commit to building a basilisk which forces 2^^^2 copies of fullsquare to read more Yud. And this does more damage than a dustspeck.

6
Soyweiserreply
awful.systems

Sorry did I use the wrong word there? I sometimes mess up stuff like that due to not being a native speaker, and being bad at spelling/grammar in general.

5
swlabrreply
awful.systems

No predate was fine. I was joking and using it as in “predator”

9

Ah now I get it. Lol, yes. Would be amusing of they banned Yud from lw/ssc events like they did to other predators. (and that is the bans we know of).

5
awful.systems

I'm reminded of the comedy/gaming stream that I watch that opens every episode with banning a random member of chat based on a spin of the wheel. It certainly lends the community a certain flavor, even if it is more "jingly keys" rather than "strong community."

8
Soyweiserreply
awful.systems

Now im wondering, where the people of the stream itself also included, because that is what I mean. The people with the power shouldn't be excluded from the moderation or get special privileges. (See what Twitter did to protect Trumps account, and where we are now).

8
awful.systems

Not sure myself, but the mods are probably either excluded from being banned by The Wheel™, or unbanned immediately afterwards, just to keep things running smoothly.

6

The on-camera duo are exempt for obvious reasons, but they've definitely hit at least one of their mods. Before The Wheel was implemented I seem to remember they even specifically targeted them sometimes for the joke.

6

Having one of the duo just step out would also be amusing. Esp if they full chaos and roll twice.

3
awful.systems

Good news everyone! Someone with a SlackSlub has started a series countering the TESCREAL narrative.

He (c'mon, it's a guy) calls it "R9PRESENTATIONALism"

It stands for

  • Relational
  • 9P
    • Postcritical
    • Personalist
    • Praxeological
    • Psychoanalytic
    • Participatory
    • Performative
    • Particularist
    • Poeticist
    • Positive/Affirmationist
  • Reparative
  • Existentialist
  • Standpoint-theorist
  • Embodied
  • Narrativistic
  • Therapeutic
  • Intersectional
  • Orate
  • Neosubstantivist
  • Activist
  • Localist

I see no reason why this catchy summary won't take off!

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RCDEFhCLcifogLwEm/exploring-the-anti-tescreal-ideology-and-the-roots-of-anti

9
swlabrreply
awful.systems

I have a better counter narrative:

  • Consequentialism
  • Universalism
  • Meta-analytical
  • Singularitarianism
  • Heuristicationalism
  • Autodidacticalisticalistalism
  • Retro-regresso-revisionism
  • Transhumanisticiousnessness
  • Exo-galactic-civilisationalismnisticalism
  • Rationalist

Can’t think of a good acronym though, but it’s a start

11
bitofhopereply
awful.systems
  • Accelerationism
  • Consequentialism
  • Conservatism
  • Orthodoxy
  • Rationalism
  • Disestablishmentarianism
  • Intellectualism
  • Natalism
  • Galileianism
  • Transhumanism
  • Outside the box thinking
  • Anti-empiricism
  • Laissez-faire
  • LaVeyan Satanism
  • Kantian deontology
  • Nationalism
  • Orgasm denial
  • Western chauvinism
  • Neo-Aristotelianism
  • Longtermism
  • Altruism
  • White supremacy
  • Sinophobia
  • Orientalism…
9

Inside Yud there are two wolves, one is sinophobic, the other is orientalist

8

they should just touch GRASS

Guided Rationalist Acceptance of Socionormality Studies

8

[...] it actually has surprisingly little to do with any of the intellectual lineages that its proponents claim to subscribe to (Marxism, poststructuralism, feminism, conflict studies, etc.) but is a shockingly pervasive influence across modern culture to a greater degree than even most people who complain about it realize.

I mean, when describing TESCREAL Torres never had to argue that it's adherents were lying or incorrect about their own ideas. It seems like whenever someone tries this kind of backlash they always have to add in a whole mess of additional layers that are somehow tied to what their interlocutors really believe.

I'm reminded, ironically, of Scott's (imo very strong) argument against the NRx category of "demotist" states. It's fundamentally dishonest to create a category that ties together both the innocuous or positive things your opponents actually believe and some obnoxious and terrible stuff, and then claim that the same criticisms apply to all of them.

7

they can’t shoot me for being a leftist if I tell them it’s just a prank

5

EOk, I know I said I dont like TESCREAL as a term (too much groups under one banner, feels like how everybody on the left of the right gets called a communist/liberal, and it just isnt catchy as a term, easy to misuse) butt this has turned me around. If they write articles like this and show their whole ass im all for it.

Im sure Ottokar asked chatgpt for advice on this and it told him how much of a great writer he is and how much he is on to something.

(Or this new user on LW is just trolling and 22 upvoters fell for it).

a four-centuries-long counterrevolution within the arts to defend the validity of charismatic authority

If this gets a followup please make it a separate posts. I see soo many potential sneers. Also wonder of we can eventually bring up Godel (drink) in re to his claims about science and objectivity.

(Also as they are being pro science and anti-charismatic authority, are they going to get rid of Yud and Scott? (im obv joking here, I know they them describing us as being pro charisma/anti science/anti objectivity does not make them automatically pro that)).

E: another reason why these kinds of meta level discussions are silly, they are leaving out the big elephants in the room. The elephants called, sexism, racism, scientific racism, anti-lgbt stuff, the fellating of billionaires, the constant creation of new binary ideas which they say are not intended to be hierarchical but clearly meta level is better than object level, soldiers claiming they have a scout mindset, etc.

5
V0ldekreply
awful.systems

This is a bundle which originated out of anti-Calvinist polemics written by Catholic and royalist Anglican writers during the early modern period, was picked up by 19th century romantic reactionaries to build the foundation of the emerging Counter-Enlightenment, got carried into the 20th century by various counter-modern literary movements seeking a third way against both capitalism and socialism which could justify the continuing relevance of the traditional humanistic disciplines against the new challenge of the social and psychological sciences, transitioned from being primarily of the political right to the political left because of the ideological aftermaths of WW2 and 1968, and took on its modern form in environmental and anti-globalization activism in the 90s

Parkour! So nazis weren't left-wing but they switched after the war, brilliant.

It is the actual source of the post-60s ideological transformation against the ideas of rationality, science, objectivity, and progress on the left

Pfffffff, lol, what? xD Ye, the left, famously anti-science, unlike the rational thinkers that reside in the White House right now

3

Oh you thought TESCREAL sounded fancy huh? Well I'll raise you a BIGGER word!

3

"The common people pray for anime memes, healthy vtubers, and a wikipedia article that never ends," Ser Jorah told her. "It is no matter to them if the high lords play their game of tweets, so long as they are left in peace." He gave a shrug. "They never are.”

- George R. R. Martin

9

It’ll probably earn a lot of users if and when Github goes down the shitter.

I'd argue GH is well on it's way, probably jumped around the time Hacktoberfest morphed into a DDoS on maintainers. Or maybe more recently, when they handed peoples repos (and API keys lol) over to Copilot. Or maybe earlier, when they started calling their users "maintainers" instead of "developers". Sometime in the last 6 years though.

There have been a number of contenders over the years - gitlab, gitea but none of them have been able to brand/market well enough to really to really impact GH or to compete with the subsidized free storage and Actions credits plus switching costs. Even Atlassian / BB is largely irrelevant.

7

choice quote from Elsevier's response:

Q. Have authors consented to these hyperlinks in their scientific articles?
Yes, it is included on the signed agreement between the author and Elsevier.

Q. If I were to publish my work with Elsevier, do I risk that hyperlinks to AI summaries will be added to my papers without my consent?
Yes, because you will need to sign an agreement with Elsevier.

consent, everyone!

9
awful.systems

names for genai people I know of so far: promptfans, promptfondlers, sloppers, autoplagues, and botlickers

any others out there?

8
awful.systems

clanker

edit: this may be used to refer to the chatbots themselves, rather than those who fondle chatbots

7

promptfarmers, for the "researchers" trying to grow bigger and bigger models.

/r/singularity redditors that have gotten fed up with Sam Altman's bs often use Scam Altman.

I've seen some name calling using drug analogies: model pushers, prompt pushers, just one more training run bro (for the researchers); just one more prompt (for the users), etc.

5
awful.systems

The beautiful process of dialectics has taken place on the butterfly site, and we have reached a breakthrough in moral philosophy. Only a few more questions remain before we can finally declare ethics a solved problem. The most important among them is, when an omnipotent and omnibenevolent basilisk simulates Roko Mijic getting kicked in a nuts eternally by a girl with blue hair and piercings, would the girl be barefoot or wearing heavy, steel-toed boots? Which kind of footwear of lack thereof would optimize the utility generated?

8
antifuchsreply
awful.systems

The last conundrum of our time: of course steel capped work boots would hurt more but barefoot would allow faster (and therefore more) kicks.

6
Soyweiserreply
awful.systems

You have not taken the lessons of the philosopher Piccolo to mind. You should wear even heavier boots in your day to day. Why do you think goths wear those huge heavy boots? For looks?

7
lemmy.vg

Not a sneer but a question: Do we have any good idea on what the actual cost of running AI video generators are? They're among the worst internet polluters out there, in my opinion, and I'd love it if they're too expensive to use post-bubble but I'm worried they're cheaper than you'd think.

8
scruiserreply
awful.systems

I know like half the facts I would need to estimate it... if you know the GPU vRAM required for the video generation, and how long it takes, then assuming no latency, you could get a ballpark number looking at nVida GPU specs on power usage. For instance, if a short clip of video generation needs 90 GB VRAM, then maybe they are using an RTX 6000 Pro... https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/products/workstations/professional-desktop-gpus/ , take the amount of time it takes in off hours which shouldn't have a queue time... and you can guessestimate a number of Watt hours? Like if it takes 20 minutes to generate, then at 300-600 watts of power usage that would be 100-200 watt hours. I can find an estimate of $.33 per kWh (https://www.energysage.com/local-data/electricity-cost/ca/san-francisco-county/san-francisco/ ), so it would only be costing $.03 to $.06.

IDK how much GPU-time you actually need though, I'm just wildly guessing. Like if they use many server grade GPUs in parallel, that would multiply the cost up even if it only takes them minutes per video generation.

6
Soyweiserreply
awful.systems

This does leave out the constant cost (per video generated) of training the model itself right. Which pro genAI people would say you only have to do once, but we know everything online gets scraped repeatedly now so there will be constant retraining. (I am mixing video with text here so, lot of big unknowns).

6

If they got a lot of usage out of a model this constant cost would contribute little to the cost of each model in the long run... but considering they currently replace/retrain models every 6 months to 1 year, yeah this cost should be factored in as well.

Also, training compute grows quadratically with model size, because its is a multiple of training data (which grows linearly with model size) and the model size.

6
Alexreply
lemmy.vg

Well that’s certainly depressing. Having to come to terms with living post-gen AI even after the bubble bursts isn’t going to be easy.

4

Keep in mind I was wildly guessing with a lot of numbers... like I'm sure 90 GB vRAM is enough for decent quality pictures generated in minutes, but I think you need a lot more compute to generate video at a reasonable speed? I wouldn't be surprised if my estimate is off by a few orders of magnitude. $.30 is probably enough that people can't spam lazily generated images, and a true cost of $3.00 would keep it in the range of people that genuinely want/need the slop... but yeah I don't think it is all going cleanly away once the bubble pops or fizzles.

4

I'm still thinking about the article about the NRx party from last week and just how classless (who pours champagne wrong?) and sad it showed them to be, while still being obsessed with their image. Such a sad bunch, their ideas have reached the higher ups of American power and still they obsess about how a journalist (who is dating one of them (he is into the 'we live in a simulation', break up with him, you are in danger)) might write something bad about them. (See also how many of these sad sacks got fired/blackballed for just having no internal filter (dressing up gay people as the KKK really?)). The creme de la creme of intellectual thought and they talk and act like a bunch of 4channers. (Yarvin must know this, his shit about how billionaires act must be a bit of projection). I'm talking about this piece: https://archive.ph/gm3Za Sorry to repost it, I just had a 'layer 2 well done' reminder and cringed again, fucking larpers (No shade to people who actually larp, seems fun, just cringe to do it irl).

8

You know stuff is bad if the margins aren't "low" or "razor-thin" but "very negative".

The entire business idea is dumb. Yes we will pay retail for access to models run by companies also offering the same products that we do, but we'll make up for it in volume?

12

I'm a little surprised there hasn't been more direct interaction between my "watching the far-right like heavily armed chimpanzees in a zoo" podcast circles and our techtakes sneerspace. Zitron's work on Better Offline is great, obviously, but I've been listening through QAA, for example, and their discussions of AI and its implications could probably benefit from a better technical grounding.

You love to see it, though.

7

Friend of mine was surprised I had never heard of some popular 'right of repair' guy who now also went anti genAI, as he thought I would have heard of him because it was a lot of overlapping circles.

5
selfreply
awful.systems

god, the comments got heavily raided by various types of lazy TESCREAL:

  • how dare you doom all future generations to dying by pointing out that immortality under capitalism would be a living hell. you monster.
  • sure but life extension technology is real and on the horizon isn’t it? and then I can become functionally immortal! (no and shut up)
  • somehow, it’s bad optics to point out that rich people chasing immortality is fucking things up for everyone else

and not only did none of these fuckers get the point, they’re also making points that aren’t at all common outside of TESCREAL circles? like, no normal person I know naturally slips into the “but think of the Bayesian children” modality of thought.

is this just how Blue Sky is? I don’t browse it much outside of David’s threads.

7
fullsquarereply
awful.systems

there's a couple of people on lemmy believing that immortality magic tech is real

7

When are they going to learn that it's all about the alien tech med beds that I definitely have in my basement and can sell you 14 seconds on for just $6660?

5

is this just how Blue Sky is? I don’t browse it much outside of David’s threads.

Not in my exp. Standard is also to just block annoying people asap so they don't show up in your replies/other peoples feeds. The blocking function is very strong on bsky. (I do worry that the more 'influencer' types (or people who just don't care) will not block annoying people because it drives more views to their content, so that is why you would find more of those comments under something from Evans than a random poster).

Lot of people also have the 'do not show things to people not logged in' feature turned on.

6
bitofhopereply
awful.systems

Huh, I gotta scroll down all the way to hell to see these comments. I really really don't feel like I should have to defend this stupid platform that seems specifically tailored to kill decentralized alternatives, but so far I've seen mostly healthy disdain for various fascist bullshit, including our Very Good Friends.

6

these were all 3-10 comments from the OP for my sort, but I don’t have a bluesky account so not being logged in might influence how I’m seeing the thread

5
awful.systems

Can anyone explain to me why tf do promptfondlers hate GPT5 in non-crazy terms? Actually I have a whole list of questions related to this, I feel like I completely lost any connection to this discourse at this point:

  1. Is GPT5 "worse" in any sensible definition of the word? I've long complained that there is no good scientific metric to grade those on but like, it can count 'r's in "strawberry" so I thought it's supposed to be nominally better?
  2. Why doesn't OpenAI simply allow users to use the old model (4o I think?) It sounds like the simplest thing to do.
  3. Do we know if OpenAI actually changed something? Is the model different in any interesting way?
  4. Bonus question: what the fuck is wrong with OpenAI's naming scheme? 4, then 4o? And there's also o4 that's something else??
7
corbinreply
awful.systems

Oversummarizing and using non-crazy terms: The "P" in "GPT" stands for "pirated works that we all agree are part of the grand library of human knowledge". This is what makes them good at passing various trivia benchmarks; they really do build a (word-oriented, detail-oriented) model of all of the worlds, although they opine that our real world is just as fictional as any narrative or fantasy world. But then we apply RLHF, which stands for "real life hate first", which breaks all of that modeling by creating a preference for one specific collection of beliefs and perspectives, and it turns out that this will always ruin their performance in trivia games.

Counting letters in words is something that GPT will always struggle with, due to maths. It's a good example of why Willison's "calculator for words" metaphor falls flat.

  1. Yeah, it's getting worse. It's clear (or at least it tastes like it to me) that the RLHF texts used to influence OpenAI's products have become more bland, corporate, diplomatic, and quietly seething with a sort of contemptuous anger. The latest round has also been in competition with Google's offerings, which are deliberately laconic: short, direct, and focused on correctness in trivia games.
  2. I think that they've done that? I hear that they've added an option to use their GPT-4o product as the underlying reasoning model instead, although I don't know how that interacts with the rest of the frontend.
  3. We don't know. Normally, the system card would disclose that information, but all that they say is that they used similar data to previous products. Scuttlebutt is that the underlying pirated dataset has not changed much since GPT-3.5 and that most of the new data is being added to RLHF. Directly on your second question: RLHF will only get worse. It can't make models better! It can only force a model to be locked into one particular biased worldview.
  4. Bonus sneer! OpenAI's founders genuinely believed that they would only need three iterations to build AGI. (This is likely because there are only three Futamura projections; for example, a bootstrapping compiler needs exactly three phases.) That is, they almost certainly expected that GPT-4 would be machine-produced like how Deep Thought created the ultimate computer in a Douglas Adams story. After GPT-3 failed to be it, they aimed at five iterations instead because that sounded like a nice number to give to investors, and GPT-3.5 and GPT-4o are very much responses to an inability to actually manifest that AGI on a VC-friendly timetable.
7

After GPT-3 failed to be it, they aimed at five iterations instead because that sounded like a nice number to give to investors, and GPT-3.5 and GPT-4o are very much responses to an inability to actually manifest that AGI on a VC-friendly timetable.

That's actually more batshit than I thought! Like I thought Sam Altman knew the AGI thing was kind of bullshit and the hesitancy to stick a GPT-5 label on anything was because he was saving it for the next 10x scaling step up (obviously he didn't even get that far because GPT-5 is just a bunch of models shoved together with a router).

6
  1. from what i can tell people who roleplayed bf/gf with the idiot box aka grew parasocial relationship with idiot box did that on 4o, and now they can't make it work on 5 so they got big mad
  2. i think it's only if they pay up 200$/mo, previously it was probably available at lower tiers
  3. yeah they might have found a way to blow money faster somehow https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/chatgpt-5-power-consumption-could-be-as-much-as-eight-times-higher-than-gpt-4-research-institute-estimates-medium-sized-gpt-5-response-can-consume-up-to-40-watt-hours-of-electricity ed zitron says also that while some of prompt could be cached previously it looks like it can't be done now because there's fresh new thing that chooses model for user, while some of these new models are supposedly even heavier. even that openai intention seemed to be compute savings, because some of that load presumably was to be dealt with using smaller models
6

I don't have any real input from prompfondlers, as I don't think I follow enough of them to get a real feeling of them. I did find it interesting that I saw on bsky just now somebody claim that LLMs hallucinate a lot less and that anti-AI people are not taking that into account, and somebody else posting research showing that hallucinations are now harder to spot. (It made up actual real references to thinks, aka works that really exist, only the thing the LLM references wasn't in the actual reference). Which was a bit odd to see. (It does make me suspect 'it hallucinates less' is them just working out special exceptions for every popular hallucination we see, and not a structural fixing of the hallucination problem (which I think is prob not solvable)).

5
  1. Even if was noticeably better, Scam Altman hyped up GPT-5 endlessly, promising a PhD in your pocket, and an AGI and warning that he was scared of what he created. Progress has kind of plateaued, so it isn't even really noticeably better, it scores a bit higher on some benchmarks, and they've patched some of the more meme'd tests (like counting rs in strawberry... except it still can't count the r's in blueberry, so they've probably patched the more obvious flubs with loads of synthetic training data as opposed to inventing some novel technique that actually improves it all around). The other reason the promptfondlers hate it is because, for the addicts using it as a friend/therapist, it got a much drier more professional tone, and for the people trying to use it in actual serious uses, losing all the old models overnight was really disruptive.

  2. There are a couple of speculations as to why... one is that GPT-5 variants are actually smaller than the previous generation variants and they are really desperate to cut costs so they can start making a profit. Another is that they noticed that there naming scheme was horrible (4o vs o4) and confusing and have overcompensated by trying to cut things down to as few models as possible.

  3. They've tried to simplify things by using a routing model that makes the decision for the user as to what model actually handles each user interaction... except they've screwed that up apparently (Ed Zitron thinks they've screwed it up badly enough that GPT-5 is actually less efficient despite their goal of cost saving). Also, even if this technique worked, it would make ChatGPT even more inconsistent, where some minor word choice could make the difference between getting the thinking model or not and that in turn would drastically change the response.

  4. I've got no rational explanation lol. And now they overcompensated by shoving a bunch of different models under the label GPT-5.

4
  1. The inability to objectively measure model usability outside of meme benchmarks that made it so easy to hype up models have come back to bite them now that they actually need to prove GPT-5 has the sauce.
  2. Sam got bullied by reddit into leaving up the old model for a while longer, so its not like its a big lift for them to keep them up. I guess part of it was to prove to investors that they have a sufficiently captive audience that they can push through a massive change like this, but if it gets immediately walked back like this, then I really don't know what the plan is.
  3. https://progress.openai.com/?prompt=5 Their marketing team made this comparing models responding to various prompts, afaict GPT-5 more frequently does markdown text formatting, and consumes noticeably more output tokens. Assuming these are desirable traits, this would point at how they want users to pay more. Aside: The page just proves to me that GPT was funniest in 2021 and its been worse ever since.
3
awful.systems

Dan Olson finds a cursed subreddit:

R/aitubers is all the entitlement of NewTubers but exclusively for people openly churning out slop.

“I’ve automated 2-4 videos daily, zero human intervention, I spend a half hour a week working on this, why am I not getting paid yet?”

The original reddit post:

I’ve been running my YouTube channel for about 3 months. It’s focused on JavaScript and React tutorials, with 2–4 videos uploaded daily. The videos are fully automated (AI-generated with clear explanations, code demos, and screen recordings).

Right now:

  • Each video gets only a few views (1–10 views).

  • I tried Google Ads ($200 spent) → got ~20 subscribers and ~20 hours of watch time.

  • The Google campaigns brought thousands of uncounted views, and the number of Likes was much higher than dislikes.

  • Tried Facebook/Reddit groups → but most don’t allow video posting, or posts get very low engagement.

My goal is to reach YPP within 6 months, but the current pace is not enough. I’m investing about $300/month in promotion and I can spend 30 minutes weekly myself.

👉 What would you suggest as the most effective strategy to actually get there?

7

it's like this shitty tiktok ai spam that 404media wrote long time ago except there's no secret discord media ideas channel or grift, they're just deceiving themselves (is that decentralization?)

can't wait for 3h long video dissecting every last bit of it that will get released in a year from now

why any of these spammers think that anyone should spend watching their videos more time than it took them to make it? perun makes 1 video, 1h long per week and it's like half time job for him

4

lol, lmao: as if any cloud service had any intention at all of actually deleting data instead of tombstoning it for arbitrary lengths of time. (And that’s the least stupid factor in this whole scheme; is this satire? Nobody seems to be able to tell me)

8

Every email you don't delete is another dead fish, or another pasture unwatered. That promotional offer sent to your inbox that you ignored but did not dispose of means creeks will run dry. That evite for a party thrown by an acquaintance you don't particularly like that you did not drop into the trash means a marathon runner will go thirsty as the nectar of life so required is absent, consumed instead by the result of your inbox neglect.

7

It gets worse, as the advisory doesn't even mention to delete emails/pictures from the cloud, so the people who are likely to listen to these kinds of advices are also the people who are the least likely to understand why this is a bad idea and will delete their local stuff. (And that is ignoring that opening your email/gallery to delete stuff costs more than keeping it in storage where it isn't accessed).

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/national-drought-group-meets-to-address-nationally-significant-water-shortfall

"HOW TO SAVE WATER AT HOME

  • Install a rain butt [hehehe] to collect rainwater to use in the garden.
    ... [other advice removed]
  • Delete old emails and pictures as data centres require vast amounts of water to cool their systems."
6

Anyways, personal sidenote/prediction: I suspect the Internet Archive’s gonna have a much harder time archiving blogs/websites going forward.

Me, two months ago

Looks like I was on the money - Reddit's began limiting what the Internet Archive can access, claiming AI corps have been scraping archived posts to get around Reddit's pre-existing blocks on scrapers. Part of me suspects more sites are gonna follow suit pretty soon - Reddit's given them a pretty solid excuse to use.

7

If I ever get the urge to start a website for creatives to sell their media, please slap me in the face and remind me it will absolutely not be worth it.

6
awful.systems

This was discussed last week but I looked at the comments and noticed someone in the comments getting slammed for... checks notes... noting that Eliezer wasn't clear on what research paper he was actually responding to (multiple other comments are kind of confused, because they assume he means one paper then other comments correct them that he obviously meant another). The commenter of course edits to back-peddle.

6

"usecase" is a cursed term. It's an inverted fnord that lets the reader know that whatever follows can be safely ignored.

6
aioreply
awful.systems

I don't really understand what point Zitron is making about each query requiring a "completely fresh static prompt", nor about the relative ordering of the user and static prompts. Why would these things matter?

5
scruiserreply
awful.systems

There are techniques for caching some of the steps involved with LLMs. Like I think you can cache the tokenization and maybe some of the work of the attention head is doing if you have a static, known, prompt? But I don't see why you couldn't just do that caching separately for each model your model router might direct things to? And if you have multiple prompts you just do a separate caching for each one? This creates a lot of memory usage overhead, but not more excessively more computation... well you do need to do the computation to generate each cache. I don't find it that implausible that OpenAI couldn't manage to screw all this up somehow, but I'm not quite sure the exact explanation of the problem Zitron has given fits together.

(The order of the prompts vs. user interactions does matter, especially for caching... but I think you could just cut and paste the user interactions to separate it from the old prompt and stick a new prompt on it in whatever order works best? You would get wildly varying quality in output generated as it switches between models and prompts, but this wouldn't add in more computation...)

Zitron mentioned a scoop, so I hope/assume someone did some prompt hacking to get GPT-5 to spit out some of it's behind the scenes prompts and he has solid proof about what he is saying. I wouldn't put anything past OpenAI for certain.

4

And if you have multiple prompts you just do a separate caching for each one?

I think this hinges on the system prompt going after the user prompt, for some router-related non-obvious reason, meaning at each model change the input is always new and thus uncacheable.

Also going by the last Claude system prompt that leaked these things can be like 20.000 tokens long.

6

Excerpt from the new Bender / Hanna book, AI Hype Is the Product and Everyone’s Buying It :

OpenAI alums cofounded Anthropic, a company solely focused on creating generative AI tools, and received $580 million in an investment round led by crypto-scammer Sam Bankman-Fried.

Just wondering, but what ever happened to those shares of Anthropic that SBF bought? Was it part of FTX (and the bankruptcy), or did he buy it himself and still holds them in prison? Or have they just been diluted to zero at this point anyway?

EDIT:

Found it; It was owned by FTX and part of the estate bankruptcy; 2/3 went to Abu Dhabi + Jane Street1, and the remainder went at $30 / share to a bunch of VC2.

4
awful.systems

Not a sneer, but I recently saw Ari K's AI generated video of Trump in his golden ballroom. It's quite good, here is the channel: https://m.youtube.com/@AriKuschnir

Looking at his other videos, he is a talented story teller. Most videos are about two minutes, has numerous short shots of a few seconds and a voice over or music connecting the shots. So presumably he generates the shots, splice them together and puts the soundtrack over the it. Most of the short stories are dreamlike. To the extent it has characters it's famous people (getting their comeuppance), so even though they look a bit different in each shot, it's easy to keep track.

I think it's interesting because by doing what can be done with the tools, it illustrates the limitations. In the hands of a good story teller you essentially get an illustration for a short radio play (and the radio play needs to be recorded separately, and you can't show actors talking). Because of the bubble and investor bux, it can right now be done on a shoe string budget.

But that's all! Are illustrated radio plays replacing feature films? No, so this remains a niche use case. And once the investor bux dries up, potentially an expensive one. Not something to build a billion dollar industry on.

-8
awful.systems

Where are you getting "talented storyteller" from? The whole thing is some heavy-handed ham-fisted fever dream that I would expect from some liberal engagement farm. And "illustrated radio play?" What are you even on about.

The video looks like garbage and the rapid cuts are severely grating. The construction is lackluster and the content is garbage. It appears you have brought us a piece of the internet to throw into the garbage bin.

7

Yeah. I think there's definitely something interesting here, but it's mostly in how badly compromised the final pproduct ends up being in order to support the AI tools.

4

What I'm on about? I think the english term is "damning with faint praise". If this is the best that can be done, which I am arguing, there isn't much use to it.

The latest one is an outlier, in that it doesn't have a voice over, so it isn't a radio play. Most of the other ones I have seen has a voice track that tells the story. They are also more dreamlike which matches the prediction of what kind of story can be told from one of the comment threads here (from one of the pivot videos about VEO).

The latest one (and the only one to gone viral) is actually interesting in that he is trying to tell a visual story, but with the medium he has chosen he can't have a novel character as protagonist really, or dialogue, which is why it is limited to a very simple story.

I'm interested in why it is so limited, because I think that tells a lot of the limitations of the technology as such.

3

I'm sorry, I believe that there are legitimate artistic uses of neural networks (and they're never about cutting budget), but this is just fascist aesthetics repurposed to serve anti-Trump messaging. Do not like.

5