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When Michael Waltz ran for reelection in November in Florida’s 6th congressional district, the Republican trounced his Democratic opponent by more than 30 percentage points.

Almost five months later, Waltz is President Donald Trump’s National Security Advisor — embroiled in the biggest intelligence snafu in years — and the race to replace him in Congress appears to be within the margin of error.

A poll last week showed Republican Randy Fine ahead of Democrat Josh Weil, a teacher, by less than 5 percentage points, after being heavily outspent. Fine’s performance has sparked criticism by Republicans — including Florida Governor Ron DeSantis — that the candidate has let an easy win become far too close for comfort.

From a national perspective, Tuesday’s election is poised to provide one of the first real tests of how voters in Republican strongholds are reacting to Trump’s agenda, including his focus on tariffs and immigration, as well as Elon Musk’s drastic reshaping of the federal bureaucracy. Democrats have been outpacing the GOP in fundraising in a second Florida race as well.

Josh WeilPhotographer: Joe Raedle/Getty Images

At stake isn’t just Trump’s perceived popularity. Any loss would narrow the GOP’s razor-thin majority in the House of Representatives, where the party holds 218 seats to the Democrats’ 213. Already, the White House has showed how worried it is about that majority by withdrawing New York congresswoman Elise Stefanik’s nomination to be US ambassador to the United Nations.

Fine won Trump’s endorsement early in the race for Waltz’s seat. A loss or even a narrow win in northeast Florida would be seen as a warning.

“This is a question of someone who is going to back the Trump agenda versus someone who is going to stop the Trump agenda,” Fine said in an interview.

Weil touted his campaign’s momentum and said he was “dedicated to protecting Social Security, Medicare and lowering costs, ensuring that our seniors and families have the support they need.”

Florida isn’t the only state with closely followed races on Tuesday. In Wisconsin, Elon Musk has deployed millions of dollars into a campaign to fill an open seat on the state’s highest court and push it further to the right on abortion rights, labor laws and congressional map redistricting plans.

In Florida, the race to replace Waltz is one of two special congressional elections. Voters are also set to choose the successor to Matt Gaetz, who was nominated as Trump’s attorney general before withdrawing amid allegations of sexual misconduct. Gaetz, who resigned his congressional seat, has denied wrongdoing and the allegations didn’t result in any criminal charges. The election for his old seat – pitting Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis for the GOP against Democrat Gay Valimont – is also far more competitive than Republicans would like.

While Valimont lost to Gaetz in November by more than 30 percentage points, Patronis warned on Fox News that he’s being outspent. Patronis raised about $2.1 million while Valimont, an activist against gun violence, secured more than three times as much. In Waltz’s old district, Weil raised $9.5 million, dwarfing Fine’s fundraising of less than $1 million, according to data through March 12.