Spyke
SatansMaggotyCumFart
lemmy.world

Still, a word of caution: You might be tempted to make a big deal about our forecast “flipping” to Trump, but it’s important to remember that a 52-in-100 chance for Trump is not all that different from a 58-in-100 chance for Harris — both are little better than a coin flip for the leading candidate. While Trump has undeniably gained some ground over the past couple weeks, a few good polls for Harris could easily put her back in the “lead” tomorrow. Our overall characterization of the race — that it’s a toss-up — remains unchanged.

I think it’s funny posts like this get downvoted when it’s just polls and statistics.

I hope it will get upvoted so more people see it and get inspired to vote!

67
John Richardreply
lemmy.world

I'm under the impression most of the people down voting would still be claiming Joe Biden is 30 years old.

-61
DarkDecayreply
lemmy.world

Who cares what impression you're under? tRumps the current candidate with dementia. He so old and weak the polls don't matter

18
sorval_the_eeterreply
lemmy.world

the polls don’t matter

they should matter to Harris, who has the power to abandon some Biden baggage weighing her down. Like those pesky war enabling weapons shipments. But hey, if she wants to throw the election then theres nothing we voters can do to stop her. Just remember who had the chance and chose not take it, come nov 4. Its up to her now.

2
John Richardreply
lemmy.world

Polls only matter when they appear to help but not hurt? Isn't that just playing politics?

-2
rbesfereply
lemmy.ca

What does this race have to do with Joe Biden?

4
TheKingBombOmbKillerreply
lemm.ee

If I told you that you had a five in six chance to roll the dice and not roll a one, and then you rolled the dice and got a one, was what I told you wrong?

13
sorval_the_eeterreply
lemmy.world

"wrong" is a subjective call dependent on the intelligence of the observer. To some other people the answer isnt 'wrong' or 'right' its 'I love my pickup' or 'boobs!' or 'me no like polls, they say me losing'.

2
TheKingBombOmbKillerreply
lemm.ee

Here is a direct quote from 538:

538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to “call” a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win. Check out our methodology to learn exactly how we calculate these probabilities.

Source

In 2016 they gave Hillary Clinton a 71.4 % chance of winning, and in 2020 they gave Joe Biden 89 % chance of winning. They are dealing in odds, not calls.

And even if it isn't getting through to you, how were they wrong in 2020?

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