Donald Trump's chances of winning election slump after RNC speech
I have no idea about William Hill. But the odds they describe sound about right to me, and the Nate Silver thing and the summary of Trump’s speech sound informative
inb4 BIDEN COPIUM HAHAHA etc and etc
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-chances-winning-presidential-election-slump-after-rnc-speech-1927609Open linkView original on mbin.grits.dev347
Comments136
As encouraging as this may sound, it doesn't change anything. VOTE!
If voting were sufficient then we wouldn't be in this mess.
So yes, do vote, but you have to do more than that, too.
If your vote didn't matter, try wouldn't be trying to make it harder (or blocking efforts to make it easier).
VOTE
Please do explain how the necessity of further action "makes it harder to vote".
If people are so pathologically demand-avoidant that asking them to do more than just vote makes them stop voting then yelling at them to vote isn't going to help either.
I think they are talking about Republican efforts to limit voting access, not that doing more than voting makes it harder.
I've come to really like the saying "voting is the least effective form of civic engagement"
This isn't true ime
Which part?
The fact that most people aren't pathologically demand avoidant?
The part where you imply that asking someone to vote and asking them to do much more are equivalent
Of course they aren't, and I've got no idea how you managed to take that from my post. XD
I've basically given up worrying about federal politics; I STILL VOTE IN FEDERAL ELECTIONS, but it's clear they're too solidly captured by special interests to do much there. I've shifted my focus to local/municipal politics and found a lot more success there.
Correct opinion.
Yup the idiots will still vote for him no matter what happens. Aliens could pop out of his skull and claim they've been operating him all along to destroy the earth and they'd still vote for him.
He could perform an abortion on live TV and his ratings would skyrocket.
"Hahaha, take that, lib fetus!"
You think everyone is just tired of this shit? Both these dudes are older than my grandfather when he died. I am fucking tired boss. It shouldn't be this crazy just to get sensible candidates who are actual human beings. It really shouldn't.
If only the well wasn’t poisoned with REPLACE BIDEN NOW OR WORLD WILL END ALSO KAMALA SUCKS bullshit, 5-10 times every hour, some of it coming yesterday still with fresh Cyrillic in its video description, we could have an adult conversation about what a good Democratic strategy would be, so that the end of the world doesn’t get elected
God yes I've seen so much of this lately.
It’s like a fuckin typhoon
Trump wouldn’t be the end of the world. Don’t be so dramatic. He would be the end of The United States, and at most the human race. But there’s basically no chance he could destroy all life on earth.
Pedant says what?
The well is poisoned due to capitalistic interests even though we all like to think it’s incompetence.
Yeah that's an issue. But it's also actually a fucking thing.
Do you understand how meme templates work?
Do you understand how unpopular Biden is in the swing states right now?
About as unpopular as trump. They're both around 42% - 44% in PA, depending on the random sample. Do you understand that a PA Republican was literally taking pot shots at trump last weekend?
You realize that makes it worse, right?
I’m not talking about that at the moment. I’m talking about the fact that you evidently don’t understand how meme templates work, which is amusing to me.
Absolutely correct. But even if the choice is a shitty one it's also a very easy one. If you want fascism, vote for Trump. If not, vote for Biden.
Or whoever the Democratic nominee is
There’s a perfectly reasonable conversation to be had about replacing Biden being a better strategy. 10 seconds of thinking will lead one to realize that figuring out the strategy, and then switching to it, is way better than dumping Biden and then figuring out the strategy afterwards. And, it’s notable that all the same outlets who are openly hostile to democracy in the United States were the ones that were pushing so hard on the backwards version of the strategy, until the more gullible parts of the Democratic Party apparatus eventually picked it up and started running with it.
The forward strategy is still fine. The loud preemptive drumbeat of hard criticism of Kamala that is now emerging, though, should hopefully serve as a big loud blaring fucking wake up call to anyone who is sincerely interested in defeating Trump who is still echoing the backwards version.
I've said it before I'll say it again. I'm voting for Kamala but it's not clear she's better than Biden as a strategy.
But what is clear is that Kamala is better than nearly everyone else the Democrats can crown between today and the DNC. We only have a 4 months before the election and Kamala is the only one who was actually campaigning at all.
So if we replace Biden, it's almost purely to give Kamala a running mate. That's about it, and these value in this.
Yeah. To me the only options with any level of realistic viability are:
Anything else is nonsense. I have no real ironclad feelings about which of those options is best, although I lean towards 1 or 3, but the DUMP BIDEN RIGHT NOW, NOW NOW NOW, DON’T THINK ABOUT IT BOY DON’T ASK QUESTIONS JUST DO IT OR ELSE YOU DOOM AMERICA AND IT’LL ALL BE YOUR FAULT idea doesn’t appear in that list. To me.
Yeah. I'm not against removing Biden (even if I think keeping Biden is the best option). I'm just against a brainless, plan less removal of Biden.
I've pointed out how Liberals rallied in 2011 for Occupy Wall Street only for Republicans to win in 2012, 2014 and 2016. People need to think about politics of they ever want to get ahead.
It's not sufficient to just get together in a large rally. We need actual votes.
I feel like #2 and #3 will likely lead to Kamala. I'm up for an open and fair convention even if Kamala isn't selected.
I'm not voting for either candidate, I am voting for the people around Biden and against people that support P2025. Pretty simple.
As someone who didn’t think Biden was a good choice in 2020 I fully agree, his administration seems to actually make things better!
If a hypothetical person with all your favorite attributes got elected, after 2 years of propaganda you'd be complaining about how awful they are.
Idk the Drop Biden propaganda isn't really landing with me, and I dont do any other media besides Lemmy. Plus, working in construction has me surrounded by Trumpets everywhere and its not convincing me at all. I'm not immune by any means, but I'm not a fair weather fan either.
I can't keep up. Is Trump losing or is Biden losing? It changes every 5 minutes.
America is losing
You got me there.
Biden was and will be another good president. Stop allowing perfection to be the enemy of good.
Honestly id take the Enclave from Fallout at this point. At least then we get eyebots, power armor, and vertibirds. Plus I want to release FEV Curling 13 into the water supply of Utah to see what happens.
Super Mormons.
More like Mormon Cadavers. The Enclave was gonna use FEV Curling 13 to commit omnicide against everyone not vaccinated against it, which happened to be a list consisting exclusively of the Enclave.
Right, I forgot the distinction. I've gotta play Tale of Two Wastelands again.
If it makes it any better its better explained in Fallout 2 when you talk to president richardson. They barely explain it in Fallout 3.
Am Canadian. Does that mean we are winning? Cause it seems like we are losing, just more politely.
…
…
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Sorry to bring the mode down eh.
We have our own mouth breather hillbilly voters to content with.
Take off, hoser!
The answer is no one knows. If you care, vote and don't be complacent. Even if the news decides they think they know, they still don't know.
This is the answer.
They're competing to be unelectable and both winning.
In a race to the bottom I never bet against trump. Literally if Biden stops talking today I bet he'd have a better chance of winning by the end of it.
The person losing more is the one that most recently opened their mouth and reminded voters who they are.
While it looks like half the country is split between this dipshits, in reality the majority of Americans agree on a shockingly high number of issues.
One of those issues is that both options are fucking awful, so who's "losing" harder is matter of witchcraft at the moment as things violently spiral into the ridiculous
And it's exactly why I say this every single day in some comment or another: I FUCKING HATE PROPAGANDISTS!!!
What you said is absolutely true and without the likes of Fucker Carlson, Sean Hamface, and Laura Inbread, we'd actually have some fucking semblance of unity and solidarity... But no, we get divide and conquer... Hate hate hate hate. Fox primetime is literally the "two minutes hate" from 1984 with an ever changing Goldstein.
Biden is not really that awful as an option, as far as it goes. If he is in decline, he steps down after the win. It's not like Biden as a choice is comparable to donnie as a choice. They are night and day.
Now, trying to sell Biden as a product to "independents" (aka, the low info) because we sell politicians like the way we sell consumer goods like fizzy sugar water - that's not so great, since the bothsiderists keep acting like they are equally bad options.
Just vote, volunteer to help give rides to people that wouldn't be able to vote without it. If everyone votes, there will be no chance for the racist rapist with 34 felonies that has said on record that he will be a dictator.
Trump is losing and they want Biden to drop out.
Trump is a sore loser. Does that help?
No one has voted yet so no one is ahead or behind. It's all speculation and a waste of time
It really isn't a waste of time
It's at least as much of a waste or time as this conversation lol
If you say so. There's a reason these odds are monitored, to dismiss it entirely as a waste of time isn't wise.
Same, it's like bad actors are muddying the waters on purpose, ignore it all. Vote
Trump is losing.
Losing implies that something happened. Like in a race a contestant is visibly ahead, or in gambling you have more chips than someone else or your money is all gone.
This is why we don’t trust polls.
The polls are literally telling you that it's neck and neck right now. If this isn't clear to you, the problem isn't the polls.
I don’t cast my vote based on polls polls and no one should. They’re full of shit. Everyone needs to vote like they don’t exist.
While I agree that people should vote like they don't exist, the reality is that they do a good job of giving you an idea of where voters stand. They were historically accurate in 2022.
If you think "they're full of shit" it's almost certainly a problem of understanding rather than with the polls themselves. Considering you haven't really made an argument as to why, I can't know for sure.
They're lying cause Trumps winning to the point high level democratic members are openly admitting Bidens gonna lose. All this is pitiful window dressing.
Not because he's a fascist child dilldler, because of his last speech.
The people that vote for trump don’t care.
Christ, they wear diapers and put fake ear bandages on. You think they give a damn about what’s actually right?
Trumpism is nothing less than a fascist cult.
Look what was the big things coming out of the RNC.
No one cares except MAGA country. It is boring.
Don't forget the crashing of Grindr in Milwaukee
That was probably the most exciting part of the week. Republicans being free to be themselves until the servers crashed.
It'd be funny if Grindr were to have some "leaks" and some of the hateful closet cases were outed.
Gay furry hackers. Please 🙏
Sorry but "BIDEN COPIUM HAHAHA" is right.
This same agency is saying Kamala Harris already has better odds of becoming President than Joe Biden does, even without a decision to resign from Biden.
Paying out higher (better) odds means you think they’re less likely to win
Edit: They were initially confused about how betting odds work, now they’re confused about how outcomes work.
William Hill is saying that Trump has a 65% chance to win, and the Democrat has roughly a 35% chance to win, and that Democrat is much more likely to be Kamala than Biden. There is absolutely no conditional involved in this odds presentation that would imply who has a better chance of beating Trump, as separated from the question of how likely the Democrats are to replace Biden.
The article says P(Biden wins) < P(Harris wins). It isn't saying anything directly about P(Biden nominated) or P(Biden wins | Biden nominated) but it does imply that P(Biden nominated) is low.
I think the chances of Harris vs Biden winning are incorporated into this percentage. But it doesn’t separate out the factors such as likelihood of being the nominee vs likelihood of winning the GE. So we can’t say anything definitive about that without more information on how it’s being calculated.
Yeah, I messed up the notation in my original post. I have replaced it.
I added an edit which is critical of your new assertion
Okay, Democrats, what's the play here then? Better ride this news with some really strong moves to amplify the impact. Don't fuck it up, PLEASE.
Expecting the Dems to do a 180 and actually not fuck up is a bold expectation. JFC we need more agile leadership...
Dems: We have heard your complaints. We have elder abused Biden until he agreed to step down and make way for a younger contender:
Hillary Clinton!
God fucking damn it
The DNC is as agile as an 81 year old can be
One of my favorite quotes about Democrats (other than that they form circular firing squads) is that "Democrats will never pass up the opportunity to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory."
:(
CNN, NBC, and NPR are working overtime to glorify second coming of Lord Agolf Shitler
Newsweek seems to be the only publication making these claims. We’ve had some 2-3 weeks of Newsweek reportage of the Trump campaign floundering, its wheels falling off, and it circling the drain. Given Newsweek’s right-wing ownership and recently poor reputation for facts, it does feel like an op (perhaps to lull progressive campaigners into a false sense of security?)
That's just headlines too. The actual articles point the other direction.
So I think we are in a post 2016 news cycle so even though an assassination attempt is kind of historic, it’s not that big of a deal in 2024 when I’m sure next week we will get another huge earth shattering news. Maybe this time Putin finally croaks.
I'm an insomniac and the news came through while most of my country would be asleep. There's been news I've woken my sleeping partner up for, because it's been historic or 'in the run '.
Jan 6 was one of those days.
This wasn't. And yeah it had just happened and then the event was over so, nothing really ongoing. But I literally read what I needed to about it and moved on.
On reflection, America has used up all my sense of surprise, and I'm ashamed to say, compassion for them.
I watched Sandy Hook unfold and cried. I remember that day. But the many, many that came after? Just another headline.
I'm not hyper focused on the news; there's plenty going on in my country of interest or more relevance to me.
But I think it's odd that the attempted assassination of an American President in my lifetime... Just isn't surprising or interesting to me. I just have a 'well that tracks for that place' attitude. Putin? Now that would be something.
Not here either.
I have heard one person who wasn’t some friend/family I was specifically talking to about it, even mention it. And she clearly didn’t give a shit. She referenced it for like 5 seconds talking about something else and then never returned to the topic.
It’s fucking wild. I think everyone has just tuned out of the crazy shit politics news machine… which of course brings its own brand of danger. ☹️
Literally nobody, except some pundits, has mentioned it at all. Biden said "feels bad man" and tried to call the family of the guy who died. That's it.
I think this may be the better timeline because he gets like 1% of the sympathy of a normal president and all of the PTSD. If he died, he doesn't get to lose the election.
Fucking vote.
Polls mean nothing, vote as if the end of the human race was at hand.
Let's all hope that donnie's chances slump to zero.
So when he droned on about Hannibal lecter, was he trying to talked about Hannibal Barca?
(I don't want to listen to the speech)
No. He literally thought that Hannibal Lecter, the fictional murderer and cannibal from the film "The Silence of the Lambs", was both dead and also a great person. And no, the person who portrayed the character of Hannibal Lecter, Anthony Hopkins, isn't dead either. Also, that was a speech from a few weeks ago I think, and not the RNC speech, which was also unhinged and devolved into a Trump rally attacking Biden and prominent leftists rather than the "call for unity from a changed man" we were promised by bad faith right wing media outlets.
Trump's brain is just as much a pile of mush as Biden's is at this point, but at least I know in the moments of lucidity that Biden has, he's effective at the job and does the right thing. Can't say the same for the 34 time convicted felon running for re-election after he failed to steal the last one.
IMO the senility of either candidate is beside the point because they both have teams that will keep things running when they can't. Hell, those teams keep things running even when the president can because it's not a job one person can do alone.
The difference is Trump's team is openly planning fascism while Biden's team has to at least pretend to be opposed to that or risk more people accepting that neither party wants to oppose the ruler class.
The only time a president being lucid matters is when the president disagrees with their team, that disagreement matters for the people, and the president is on the good side of the disagreement.
And in this case, I can't see any disagreement a lucid Trump has with his team having a good option for the prime or any disagreement a lucid Biden has with his team having a worse outcome than Trump's team gaining power.
The Hannibal Lecter thing was back in May, unless he did it again.
He did do it again. He actually never quit. It's been part of his stump speech at several stops.
Trump Shouts Out ‘Late Great Hannibal Lecter’ in RNC Speech (Yes, Really)
Video Clip Very Short Excerpt, it's in the clips of the full 90+ minute speech too.
And, again today in Michigan according to this post from Meidas Touch.
Yeah...
Well that's a click bait title. It's based on betting markets that the head line completely misinterprets. The article itself admits Trump is still the favorite by far.
I’m sure that pleases you to know.
Not really.
what's with the guys wearing cheese hats is that a wisconsin thing?
definitely a wisconsin thing. I had a foam cheesehead when I was a kid.
Their local football team uses it and Wisconsin is known as the cheese state.
As someone mentioned, Wisconsin is known for cheese, lots and lots of dairy farms and whatnot out there.
I actually have a coworker who came from Wisconsin and he will walk around drinking a 1/4 gallon of milk regularly lol
Trump’s dopey fascist face kinda looks like the Halloween 4 mask.
C'mon man, that's how he always looks.
The whole thing has a Saul Goodman commercial vibe.
I’ve been tracking the odds on Betfair. They have moved from 1.54 to 1.58 (decimal odds, 1 is dead cert, 2 is 50/50), so very marginally less likely Trump win. ‘Slumped’ they have not.
Harris is at 5.4 and Biden way behind at 15.5.
Where are you looking and when did it say it was updated?
Here's what I see on Betfair; updated as of July 13th it says:
(Note they sum to more than 100%, because of the "house cut" nonreciprocal nature of the odds)
If there are more recently updated numbers that now say 1.58 decimal, that would mean the odds of Trump winning have dropped from 78% to 63%. I'd say that's a fuckin slump.
(Also note - that doesn't mean they think Biden has a 10% chance of winning if he stays in. It means the chance he will stay on as the nominee times the chance he will win in the election is 10% -- although looking at their odds for who the D nominee will be, it looks like they also think he has a lower chance of winning than Kamala, if he is the nominee.)
Just from my own screenshots yesterday and today. I have a couple of really small bets in play.
Can you explain these decimal odds a bit more? I'm confused.
This site has an explanation, examples, and a converter.
The only sad thing is that it seems like they're (still?) only talking about the other side's policy, rather than backing their own policy based on its strength.
Just "I'm not the other side" (but at least with policy rather than personality)
What are they talking about? Polls show Trump ahead.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
None of those polls are from July 19
So what are they basing this article on? William Hill odds? Nate Silver's opinion? I wouldn't put much stock in that. Is Trump going to lose 4 points of support because of a speech? Doubtful.
He's basing it on none of that. Newsweek pumps out Biden copium articles like crazy and the same few rotating accounts post every single one of them.
🙂
I mean, that describes everything on Lemmy. Have you seen the Star Trek communities?
That fuckin ear-rectangle 👂